General / Off-Topic The safest place

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You didn't really understand my post. In two weeks of "lock-down" we have seen nothing but an almost literal freeze in the numbers. No new deaths. Less than a hundred new infections. That wouldn't be plausible even if the lock-down put us all in individual hermetically sealed containers where scientists fed us through straws, because even if that were the case there would have been people who already had it but were not symptomatic yet before the lock-down went into effect that started showing up. And the way this thing is supposed to spread, the numbers should be hopping. And by "lock-down" what I really mean is all traffic and economic activity reduced by maybe 30-40%, so still thousands and thousands of people doing their thing with almost no restrictions.

See, when I talked about a magic wand I was being sarcastic. There's simply no way we should be seeing a freeze in numbers just because the governor issued a stay at home order. My opinion all along was that I would reserve judgment until I could see for myself in my own locality whether the hype and hysteria was justified as opposed to leaping to judgment based on stuff I couldn't verify, but we're well past the 4 week mark from first official cases and deaths and lo and behold....nothing is happening.
My mum lives in rural North Yorkshire - (I was all set to recluse there in event of higher/civilization destroying mortality rates, pleased I didn’t.) - there’s been 1 death in her nearby region but they’ve been in lockdown along with the rest of us.
I’m sure she could say the same as you. But it doesn’t mean there isn’t a highly infectious virus which kills a large number of vulnerable/currently unknown peoples.

@Robin I had some initial difficulties with persuading my 75yo mum to take precautions - one reason I was also tempted to go there, but luckily I have siblings and we all shared the nagging ;-)
Most of the population in her area are old, and they’ve organised some pretty tight systems to make sure everyone is supported and fed. She’s even managed to set up tele-conferencing with us kids and her mates and is having a laugh with various silly backgrounds on zoom now!
 
I guess the problem with disasters is that if you enact sufficient preventative measures, it looks like you were making a fuss over nothing.

And, of course, a lot of the best preventative measures will incur cries of "racism" and "imperialism". 🤷‍♂️

Agreed. I was about to write a response to your original 'hindsight is a marvellous thing' post but you've succinctly covered it here.

As I mentioned earlier, you can see h9w quick people are to rail against such measures, even now as the crisis continues to unfold with (for example) the various 'leftist' or 'woke' periodicals and news outlets firing up their readership with articles like that one I shared a few pages back trying to imply that Italys reason for shutting its ports to 'refugees' is down to ulterior right wing motives rather than practical common sense border control in time of a crisis.
 
Improving surveillance of wildlife diseases, funding appropriate research, strengthening communications and logistics channels, while making sure health systems can handle surges in demand, if necessary...none of this sounds racist or imperialist to me.

You'd be surprised Morbad.

For example, I've seen articles from certain newspapers and periodicals in a way that portray having a ship on station to deal with disaster relief as signs of a sad English obsession with bygone imperial glory and a sign of a system infested with endemic racism due to patriachially refusing to let these people manage their own affairs, and listening to similar lectures from my soon to be ex-wife and her friends in the pub, who couldn't be more champagne socialist if they tried, spouting all the buzzphrases like a young Lister in that old episode of Red Dwarf.

If theres a way for those with an agenda to square hole-round peg something to make 'the administration' look bad, make them look villains and stoke the fires of victim politics, they will.
 
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Apologies

I know I promised to refrain until 5/15 but this is just too spot on.


I wonder who will deliver the vaccine: the 'arrogant credentialed elite' or the heroic and humble patriots relying on their 'wealth of diverse existential experiences on the margins'. 🤔 If you or a loved one needs to be hospitalized, please do let them know you don't need medical help from those with a 'specialization in education that results in titled degrees and presumed authority' but you'll instead rely on the rugged common-sense no-nonsense approach of a random True American Hero. :)

By the way, that article was written by Victor David Hanson. Who that is?
Hanson received his B.A. with highest honors in classics and general college honors, Cowell College, from the University of California, Santa Cruz, in 1975[1] and his Ph.D. in classics from Stanford University in 1980.[2] He won the Raphael Demos scholarship at the College Year in Athens (1973–74) and was a regular member of the American School of Classical Studies, Athens, 1978–79.

In 1991, Hanson was awarded American Philological Association's Excellence in Teaching Award, given annually to the nation's top undergraduate teachers of Greek and Latin. He was named distinguished alumnus of the year for 2006 at University of California, Santa Cruz.[3] He has been a visiting professor of classics at Stanford University (1991–92), a National Endowment for the Humanities fellow at the Center for Advanced Studies in the Behavioral Sciences, Stanford, California (1992–93), an Alexander Onassis traveling fellowship to Greece (1999), as well as Nimitz Fellow at UC Berkeley (2006) and held the visiting Shifrin Chair of Military History at the U.S. Naval Academy, Annapolis, Maryland (2002–03), and often the William Simon visiting professorship at the School of Public Policy at Pepperdine University (2009–15), and was awarded in 2015 an Honorary Doctorate of Laws from the graduate school at Pepperdine. He gave the Wriston Lecture in 2004 for the Manhattan Institute. He has been a board member of the Bradley Foundation since 2015, and served on the HF Guggenheim Foundation board for over a decade.[citation needed]

He is a Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution and professor emeritus at California State University, Fresno,[3] where he began teaching in 1984, having created the classical studies program at that institution.

But sure. Lets listen to the wise and insightful prof. dr. who writes opinion pieces on his blog about topics he is no expert on, and ignore all the elitist arrogant eggheads who spend their lives studying highly specific topics. I am sure the guy who says what I want to hear is speaking the truth!

It is reassuring to know that if I fall on hard times I can always prostitute my title by pandering to the gullible. Haven't decided the topic yet, but if nothing else there is always good money in the 'climate change is a hoax' and 'science proofs god exist' scenes. :)
 
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You'd be surprised Morbad.

For example, I've seen articles from certain newspapers and periodicals in a way that portray having a ship on station to deal with disaster relief as signs of a sad English obsession with bygone imperial glory and a sign of a system infested with endemic racism due to patriachially refusing to let these people manage their own affairs, and listening to similar lectures from my soon to be ex-wife and her friends in the pub, who couldn't be more champagne socialist if they tried, spouting all the buzzphrases like a young Lister in that old episode of Red Dwarf.

If theres a way for those with an agenda to square hole-round peg something to make 'the administration' look bad, make them look villains and stoke the fires of victim politics, they will.

But I don't remember any of that about the CDC's mission in China, for example. That was on-going, everybody was cool with it, then it got cut. There is not much to spin there other than that was a gamble that paid off rather poorly. Being clear about that is not as much about 'making the administration look bad' but more about making sure that the right decisions are made: both now and in the future. Denying that more things could and should have been done, and that some actions made things worse, is essential. I am not out for the heads of the Dutch or Belgian PM, but I absolutely want us to learn from this and make sure that when the next pandemic comes (and there will be a next one) we can do better than how we initially handled this.
 
But I don't remember any of that about the CDC's mission in China, for example. That was on-going, everybody was cool with it, then it got cut. There is not much to spin there other than that was a gamble that paid off rather poorly. Being clear about that is not as much about 'making the administration look bad' but more about making sure that the right decisions are made: both now and in the future. Denying that more things could and should have been done, and that some actions made things worse, is essential. I am not out for the heads of the Dutch or Belgian PM, but I absolutely want us to learn from this and make sure that when the next pandemic comes (and there will be a next one) we can do better than how we initially handled this.

My point was (expressed in a slightly long winded, personal and factious manner) that if people like this (to be clear, I'm not saying you as an individual) can twist something into some strain of victim politics where they can project the image of the other side as a moustache twirling villain tying the poor oppressed to the train tracks, they will.
 
.That footage of the Hindenberg was just the elitist media trying to make fires look bad. They had an anti-dirigible agenda! And so did all the people who said hydrogen was inflammable!

The people with the agenda are not the ones saying the fire was bad.

Human behaviour:
Rationality has been struggling with belief since the Enlightenment.

Reality always wins. The Universe doesn't care about what we believe. It grinds on.
We can be humble and learn, predict trouble and prep, or we can stay arrogant and ignorant, get surprised, suffer and die.

One of those pathways is better. It starts with the humility of accepting we don't know, and the curiosity to go and learn. That's how we all start off as kids, and it is how we should stay.
 

Hydroxychloroquine trial halted, problems with heartbeats at high doses, increased death rate.

We could accept a higher cardiac risk if it cured COVID, as more would survive. But that didn't happen. So it seems that general use might end up causing more deaths at this dose, and certainly if no monitoring of hearts is done.

I still think that hydroxychloroquine could be used in selected cases with monitoring, but we need to see some definite benefit to doing so.
 
Reality always wins. The Universe doesn't care about what we believe. It grinds on.
We can be humble and learn, predict trouble and prep, or we can stay arrogant and ignorant, get surprised, suffer and die.

I'm not sure arrogance or ignorance need to be involved.

Try explaining to somebody that you need the money to prepare for the next epidemic, as you raise their taxes or make cuts to the welfare state, and see what happens.

Ah but if the globalist elites would only pay their fair share, countries would have piles of extra money, right?
Well, maybe.
Either that or those globalist elites would take themselves, and their businesses, elsewhere and then the country would lose out on not only any tax money they do pay but also the huge pile of money that all their employees definitely do pay.

If everything a government can do is on a scale, the stuff that's tolerable for them to do is a small window in the middle of that scale somewhere.
All that choosing different democratic governments does is move around within that small window.
If you plan to change things significantly you need to move outside that small window - into the realms of the intolerable - and, in doing so, you turn a country into China or North Korea.
And that rarely goes well for the general population, or ends well for the government.
 
What kind of thought process inspires individual citizens to hoard body bags? :cautious:

I didn't see anything in that article suggesting individuals were hoarding body bags.

Seems more likely that it's government organisations buying up larger quantities based on the projected outcome of this epidemic, which is fairly reasonable IMO.

If there's one thing this crisis should be teaching us, it's how close to maximum capacity various businesses and organistions are running.
Neither individuals, cities or entire countries can be expected to have the unlimited funds required to prepare optimally for a worst-case scenario.
 
Try explaining to somebody that you need the money to prepare for the next epidemic, as you raise their taxes or make cuts to the welfare state, and see what happens.

They already did that, and nobody was complaining about it. There was an infrastructure in place, there were departments and teams dedicated to it. It costs absolute peanuts. The idea that you have to make cuts to the welfare state or raise taxes to re-introduce these measures is silly.

Ah but if the globalist elites would only pay their fair share, countries would have piles of extra money, right?
Well, maybe.
Either that or those globalist elites would take themselves, and their businesses, elsewhere and then the country would lose out on not only any tax money they do pay but also the huge pile of money that all their employees definitely do pay.

That is always the scary scenario presented. But when taxes were far, far higher in the 50s and 60s the US economy did great and none of the major corps left. When in Europe the same corps who threaten to leave the US if they have to pay anything are taxed they just shrug and pay in. Or at least the part of it they can't evade. :rolleyes: As long as they are able to make a seizable profit they simply don't leave.
 
That is always the scary scenario presented. But when taxes were far, far higher in the 50s and 60s the US economy did great and none of the major corps left. When in Europe the same corps who threaten to leave the US if they have to pay anything are taxed they just shrug and pay in. Or at least the part of it they can't evade. :rolleyes: As long as they are able to make a seizable profit they simply don't leave.

It was a vastly different world back then.

Most western countries still had a viable manufacturing industry back then, and companies chose to make use of it by choice, rarely even considering whether a cheaper source of a product could be found elsewhere.
 
I'm not sure arrogance or ignorance need to be involved..

With respect to learning, it is the central problem.

Everybody starts out ignorant, and there is nothing wrong with that. The amount we are driven to learn tends to drop to zero as soon as we become confident in our abilities.
Only the ones that accept their own lack of knowledge will try to improve, or accept the guidance from actual experts.

The balance of your post was particularly well written, IMHO. +1
 
With respect to learning, it is the central problem.

Random anecdote; I once got banned from a forum for saying somebody was "ignorant" - despite the fact that I meant it in a literal way and not as a pejorative.

I guess it's true to say that people can be "ignorant" (in the non-pejorative sense) but, honestly, I still don't think that's the issue.

The issue is, as I said in my previous post, that our society is generally close to "maximum capacity" in a variety of different ways.
It's not that people (governments included) are ignorant or arrogant about the possibility of bad things happening.
It's simply that there's always a heap of more mundane things that definitely are happening which require their time, effort and money to deal with.

+EDIT+

I don't mean to take this deeply into the realms of political discussion but here's a great example...

It's only a few months ago, here in the UK, that the Labour party was promising that, if they got into government, they'd provide free internet to everybody in the country and buy a 10% stake in every large company in the country.
As a bit of a leftie, at heart, I can see the benefit of those policies and I might have found them to be a good idea.

Fast forward to the next worst-case scenario and it's likely there'd be huge criticism over all the money that was spent on those policies instead of stockpiling whatever was required to deal with the emergency.

Stuff that seems like a good idea at one time can seem like huge blunder with hindsight.
 
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