General / Off-Topic The safest place

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It is going to be hilarious if the timeline for the virus outside China ends up being earlier. In the 80s people were 100% sure the A in AIDS stood for American.

It'd certainly be one for the history books.

The virus would have had to originate somewhere, infect a bunch of people in it's country of origin without causing an epidemic, travel to China, infect a bunch of people and cause an epidemic in China without the same thing happening in the origin country.
 
I know some are saying that many (or most) nations handled the COVID-19 outbreak badly, but I believe in the end we will find that the virus was already out of China and making it's way around the world long before January 1st (and before we really knew anything about it.)

What I hope doesn't happen is that we don't forget the lessons of COVID-19: Our stockpiles, manufacturing, and health care systems all need to be adjusted to be better prepared to handle the next pandemic, especially after seeing how dependent most of us are on a single country for so many necessities.

Also, any Government that refuses to "play ball" when it comes to infectious diseases should be ostracized - even put a mandatory two week quarantine on everyone returning from countries who refuse to work with the world to prevent the spread of these diseases.

Most elderly in most places aren't in elderly homes and are exposed to far more than health care workers.

We did. Asymptomatic carriers are not uncommon

A large percentage of the elderly who have passed away in my state (Massachusetts) did indeed live in elderly homes (similar to Washington State.) That's why the average age of those who have died from COVID-19 is 82 years old here.

And I'll disagree with you that at the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak we knew how bad it was. In January the World Health Organization (WHO) was still saying there was "no clear evidence" that the coronavirus could spread between people.

COVID-19 Timeline: https://www.nytimes.com/article/coronavirus-timeline.html

asymptomatic contagion was known in early january during the first stages of the wuhan breakout already. we discussed this and predicted global spread in this very forum as it happened, and we're not rocket scientists (at least i'm not). the information was there and conclusions were pretty straightforward.

besides clear warnings, most of the world has chosen to screw up royally the response to this, because of overconfidence and political pusillanimity. hindsight has nothing to do with this, except it serves now as a rhetorical excuse for all kind of bigots.

The simple fact is, in January the World Health Organization (WHO) was still saying there was "no clear evidence" that the coronavirus could spread between people.

So while I'm sure you can find people who said it was very contagious back then (and still others who said the whole thing was a hoax,) it was not some universally known, unanimously accepted fact in early January.

COVID-19 Timeline: https://www.nytimes.com/article/coronavirus-timeline.html
 
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The simple fact is, in January the World Health Organization (WHO) was still saying there was "no clear evidence" that the coronavirus could spread between people.
.........


No, the simple fact is that one phrase has been locked on by spin-doctors. In fact:

"The World Health Organization warned the US and other countries about the risk of human-to-human transmission of Covid-19 as early as 10 January, and urged precautions even though initial Chinese studies at that point had found no clear evidence of that route of infection.
Technical guidance notes seen by the Guardian and briefings by top WHO officials warned of potential human-to-human transmission and made clear that there was a threat of catching the disease through water droplets and contaminated surfaces, based on the experience of earlier coronavirus outbreaks, such as Sars and Mers. "



Note that it was "initial Chinese studies" and "no clear evidence", not a WHO pronouncement.
 
No, the simple fact is that one phrase has been locked on by spin-doctors. In fact:

"The World Health Organization warned the US and other countries about the risk of human-to-human transmission of Covid-19 as early as 10 January, and urged precautions even though initial Chinese studies at that point had found no clear evidence of that route of infection.
Technical guidance notes seen by the Guardian and briefings by top WHO officials warned of potential human-to-human transmission and made clear that there was a threat of catching the disease through water droplets and contaminated surfaces, based on the experience of earlier coronavirus outbreaks, such as Sars and Mers. "



Note that it was "initial Chinese studies" and "no clear evidence", not a WHO pronouncement.

You have the entire timeline below as reported on WHO site:

Lately appeared several clues that point to the fact that WHO and the entire world was a bit (read as: Late) in recognizing the potential pandemic as apparently it spread to both US and Europe as early as first half of January. Maybe earlier.
And then it went under the radar until the half of February when the first cases were started to be officially tested and reported
 
No, the simple fact is that one phrase has been locked on by spin-doctors. In fact:

"The World Health Organization warned the US and other countries about the risk of human-to-human transmission of Covid-19 as early as 10 January, and urged precautions even though initial Chinese studies at that point had found no clear evidence of that route of infection.
Technical guidance notes seen by the Guardian and briefings by top WHO officials warned of potential human-to-human transmission and made clear that there was a threat of catching the disease through water droplets and contaminated surfaces, based on the experience of earlier coronavirus outbreaks, such as Sars and Mers. "



Note that it was "initial Chinese studies" and "no clear evidence", not a WHO pronouncement.

It is really hard to swallow that people are SO easily convinced about WHO misleading the world by media & spindoctors . The global Agency which has best and most expereince with SARS - CoV -1, MERS . The people who KNOW what "pneumonia of unknown origin" popping up in China and being identified ( picked up by the surveillance network ) - when there were 41(!) cases - can mean . Instead of thinking "hmmmm...it would only be logical if those guys would have had an Idea of what was VERY likely to come, and therefore advised and did their best to prepare the world for the worst case"...people rather go "WHO is to blame ! THEY did eveything WRONG! THEY mislead the WORLD !" as soon as they are being this fed by whomever .

Really...hard to believe people are so gullible XD .
 
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Also, any Government that refuses to "play ball" when it comes to infectious diseases should be ostracized - even put a mandatory two week quarantine on everyone returning from countries who refuse to work with the world to prevent the spread of these diseases.

As long as nations are so codependent on each other, the ability to police what they do within their own jurisdiction is going to be extremely limited, especially for nations with a lot of political and economic clout.

While there should certainly be standards, with incentives to adhere to them, and consequences for not, I don't think arbitrarily punishing one's own travelers would accomplish much of anything.

We have to come to terms that we cannot expect every regime to be willing or able to do what is in the world's best interest.

Personally, I think those entities that can should treat these problems as an intelligence/counterintelligence issue, and have people on the ground collecting data on potential health threats, with or without the consent of the governing state.

A large percentage of the elderly who have passed away in my state (Massachusetts) did indeed live in elderly homes (similar to Washington State.)

This is true, but there are still countless non-healthcare staff and visitors that are potential transmission vectors in such settings.

A big part of the myriad of problems with assisted living facilities stems from just how few healthcare workers there are. The COVID-19 deaths in these places is shining some light on how shoddy they often are, but unfortunately, the response seems to be to give them immunity, rather than hold them accountable, at least in much of the US.

And I'll disagree with you that at the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak we knew how bad it was. In January the World Health Organization (WHO) was still saying there was "no clear evidence" that the coronavirus could spread between people.

COVID-19 Timeline: https://www.nytimes.com/article/coronavirus-timeline.html

Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

The assumption, even back in early January, was that SARS-CoV-2 could spread between people and that there were likely asymptomatic carriers. Fauci stated this again in very early February, even after some issues were discovered with the first reports of asymptomatic carriers outside China.

To think that people with no symptoms couldn't transmit this pathogen was far fetched to the point that the safest assumption was always that it could. If we had waited for conclusive evidence that SARS-CoV-2 could indeed to the same things that we've known for decades that it's closest relatives were able to do, it would have been too late...well, here we are.

In the absence of proof, you extrapolate from what you know. The world has had considerable experience with other coronaviruses, but collectively chose to ignore the lessons previous outbreaks and research taught.
 
You have the entire timeline below as reported on WHO site:

Lately appeared several clues that point to the fact that WHO and the entire world was a bit (read as: Late) in recognizing the potential pandemic as apparently it spread to both US and Europe as early as first half of January. Maybe earlier.
And then it went under the radar until the half of February when the first cases were started to be officially tested and reported

You still are adamant about this, right ? So while now it is clear that the points of "WHO Miselad the World ! WHO messed up ! " are not substancial, it now has to be "clues that point to the fact..." to make an argument about WHO being late/retarted ?

Do you think these people have a crytsal ball ? The first 41(!) cases were picked up during December 2019 . WHO was INFORMED about these Dececmber 31st . You also - despite this having been posted several times in direct response to you - simply ignore that WHO issued
Public Health Emergency of International Concern
on January 30th . THIS is, acc. to IHR, the HIGHEST STATE OF ALERT they can Issue ! Calling it a Pandemic has ZERO meaning in the context of WHO's obligations, the international regulations, etc . On January 30h, WHO told the WORLD "There possibly is a Pandemic coming" !

From the timeline you provided :


4 January 2020
WHO announced it would work across its 3 levels – country office, regional office and HQ – to track the situation and share details as they emerged.

5 January 2020
WHO published its risk assessment and advice and reported on the status of patients and the public health response by national authorities to the cluster of pneumonia cases in Wuhan.

10 January 2020
Developed with reference to other coronaviruses, such as SARS and MERS, WHO issued a tool for countries to check their ability to detect and respond to a novel coronavirus.
This information is to help with identifying main gaps, assessing risks and planning for additional investigations, response and control actions.

13 January 2020
Officials confirmed a case of the novel coronavirus in Thailand. It was not unexpected that cases of the novel coronavirus would emerge outside of China and reinforces why WHO calls for active monitoring and preparedness in other countries.

25 January 2020
Covering topics such as why the novel coronavirus is a global threat to human health and how to effectively engage communities in the response, this free online course gives an introduction to the novel coronavirus. It is available for free and online in English, French, Spanish and Chinese.

And NO, it did NOT went under the Radar . Germany was able to effectively SHUT DOWN the first domestic cluster, having popped up on January 26th . How ? By LISTENING to WHO, and being prepared .


How desperate can people be to blame the ONE Agency that warned the world, told everyone to be prepared for a possible Pandemic, told everyone HOW to prepare, and was largely ignored . Really ?
 
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Let's be frank, pretty much most of humanity effed up big time with Covid 19. Thing is that report about the WHO talking about "potential", that's not the language that politicians in charge of massive ecomonies willl listen to. The WHO should have said in no uncertain terms that there was a real immediate (NOT potential) risk of COVID 19 becoming a pandemic and should have ordered all countries to CLOSE borders, SCREEN existing passengers in the system, introduce ISOLATION and PREPARE for the worst. I hope to god humanity learns from this fuster cluck.
 
Let's be frank, pretty much most of humanity effed up big time with Covid 19. Thing is that report about the WHO talking about "potential", that's not the language that politicians in charge of massive ecomonies willl listen to. The WHO should have said in no uncertain terms that there was a real immediate (NOT potential) risk of COVID 19 becoming a pandemic and should have ordered all countries to CLOSE borders, SCREEN existing passengers in the system, introduce ISOLATION and PREPARE for the worst. I hope to god humanity learns from this fuster cluck.

WHO does NOT have the Authority to ORDER anyone to do ANYTHING ! WHO can only advise .

Really, if only you people would listen to WHO, DR. Tedros, Dr.Ryan, Dr. v. Kerkhoeve ! All these accusations are totally baseless .

Again, the HIGHEST STATE OF EMERGENCY WHO can Issue is

Public Health Emergency of International Concern

Any memberstate who is familiar with IHR (should) know : When WHO raises THIS....its HIGH TIME to get going . And probably already a bit late ( simply because WHO started to Issue advice as early as Januar 5th...) . But NOOOOO.....WHO got largely ignored . And people still allow themselves to be instrumentalized in the blame shifting game by Spindoctors, no matter how often these things are explained, as blunt and clearly as anyhow possible . It is saddening, really .
 
You still are adamant about this, right ? So while now it is clear that the points of "WHO Miselad the World ! WHO messed up !

Nope. I'm not saying that. I don't blame WHO per se and i said that on several occasions - no idea why you keep pushing that...

I'm just pointing out that Sars-Cov-2 spread way before it was announced as Emergency on January 30th, before Wuhan lockdown on January 23rd and even before we had a chance to develop tests - that is before publishing the genome of what was known until then nCov (novel Coronavirus) on January 12

And hopefully this under-the-radar spread should be analyzed in detail so we are better prepared next time.
 
It'd certainly be one for the history books.

The virus would have had to originate somewhere, infect a bunch of people in it's country of origin without causing an epidemic, travel to China, infect a bunch of people and cause an epidemic in China without the same thing happening in the origin country.
Which is exactly what AIDS did.
 
Let's be frank, pretty much most of humanity effed up big time with Covid 19. Thing is that report about the WHO talking about "potential", that's not the language that politicians in charge of massive ecomonies willl listen to. The WHO should have said in no uncertain terms that there was a real immediate (NOT potential) risk of COVID 19 becoming a pandemic and should have ordered all countries to CLOSE borders, SCREEN existing passengers in the system, introduce ISOLATION and PREPARE for the worst. I hope to god humanity learns from this fuster cluck.

Indeed.

It's kind of like going to a mechanic 'cos your car's making a funny noise and the mechanic suggests a bunch of different possibilities ranging from a stone wedged in the brakes to an imminent catastrophic failure of the engine and then, when your engine does explode, the mechanic says "Y'see, I told you that might happen!"

Honestly, I don't really like the idea of attempting to hold people/organisations responsible for failures that are only completely apparent in hindsight.
I'm far more interested in ensuring that people/organisation don't now, in the full knowledge of what IS happening, take advantage of the situation to further their own agendas.

As I've already said in this thread, I think people's initial responses to a thing are the most honest ones because they're the responses that are most likely to be sincere, based purely on a desire to deal with the thing at hand.
It's only when people have had a while to see what's happening and think about all the implications that they start to come up with more dubious suggestions which are, in truth, an attempt to manipulate a situation to suit their own ends.
 
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