CGs - the numbers to achieve goals seem disproportionate

[Ooj]

Hello,
I took part in the Jupiter Rochester CG of CZ bashing and the just finished rare goods event, I achieved the top 10% in the Jupiter CG and I were in the top 25% for the rare goods CG. The numbers to achieve the goals, there were more participants in the Jupiter Rochester event, more people on the Silver side than took part in the rare goods event. The Jupiter CG, the winning side just about scraped tier 3, the rare goods CG with less people is already finished.

Why was the Jupiter goal difficult and the rare goods goal easy?

 

[goemon]

because it is hard for FDEV to predict, how many cmdrs pick up, and how much those who do will sink time into it.

• if a CG doesn't get finished at tier 5, we get threads of people saying numbers are too high (scour the community goal subforum, there was recently a thread on "trade CGs never get to tier 5, while combat goals do!").
• if a CG ends early, we get threads asking for adjusted goal.
• if FDEV changes the tiers on friday, as many cmdrs pick up, we get threads for calling that out as calvinball.

afaik the rare goods CG overperformed compared to previous rare goods CGs. faction states of 2 of the rares where also very favourable (FDEV picked an engineer unlock rare, which has inflated max allocation to ensure cmdrs can get some in any state - that rare was in boom the whole time allowing 48t per run. if that system would have gotten into civil unrest - not unlikely during a CG due ti fines and crimes, the max allocation would have been lower. imagine if lavian brandy would have been like karsuki locusts during the CG.). if the faction states would not have alligned nicely, the CG would not have finished so fast - and states can change once a day.

as for jupiter, i personally wasn't shure which sides cmdrs would pick - i wanted the starship one story goig on nwith a trial for jupiter, but also liked the idea of a megalomaniac permit restricted corporate system. once one side was leading clearly at tier 1, combat CGs usually end that way.

 

[GraphiteGB]

Repeated and shortened from the CG own topics..

Because FDEV dont care to get the target number right as they can't, As the ACTIVE players are never Known untill after the event..
FDEV wanted the CZ event NOT to finish... Those who done the CGs from the start pointed out this in the CG topic as even with out the X4 bonus pay the CG would go the complete distance and run out of time IF it was built to the OLD CZ rules any way...

 

[Speedcuffs]

What should the targets be set at for the next CG?

 

[ADAMtheWELSHMANz]

What should the targets be set at for the next CG?

Target: Fish
Quantity: All of it
Duration: Ongoing until we have them all

 

[Northpin]

What should the targets be set at for the next CG?

Judging by the threads - they should set no limit and by Wednesday they should simply declare that the GC reached the maximum Tier.

Congrats Everyone, yet another CG that is reaching the highest tier on the closing day !!!

 

[Ooj]

I understand we are a fickle bunch but FDev have numbers, they can see the patterns we create from our habits.

 

[GraphiteGB]

What should the targets be set at for the next CG?

No body can answer that as we dont yet have the clues from galnet to say what it is...
Also With the Bad weather effecting the USA and other countries. Power and Broadband in many parts of the world could go down again if they get another repeat of those conditions..
(stupid flashing alarm clock meant another power cut)

 

[goemon]

What should the targets be set at for the next CG?

they obviously should be moving targets, with an algorythm adjusting it to finish at tier 5 uk nighttime before the last hours, so most can have a feeling of having something achieved and a mad rush in the last hour to sneak into top 50%.

 

[Bantha]

Lots of reasons why the latest CG was a success.

1. It was easy. 48T of brandy from Lave to Luyten’s Star (2, 3 or 4 jumps depending on ship) was easy peasy, and anyone could get involved.
2. It was profitable. Those 48T made a profit of around 5.7M per run. Around 30M an hour, whilst not meta, is still ok for a CG run out
3. The immediate reward was coveted. Everyone wants a piece of the double-engineered FSD action! Top 75%, get one free. Many Cmdrs over achieved (myself included) to make absolutely sure they got their free FSD.
4. The Tiers meant something. A lot of Cmdrs wanted to hit Tier 5 as they have multiple ships to outfit. Hitting Tier 5 will save on materials for everyone - a true community goal.

 

[goemon]

I understand we are a fickle bunch but FDev have numbers, they can see the patterns we create from our habits.

maybe they could, obviously they often don't, and also it might not make the game any better (how boring if each CG would always reach tier 5 or has a totally predictable runtime).

 

[Navigare Necesse Est]

It's randomly generated I guess. Even if it wasn't - all the dynamic elements are impossible to predict.

 

[Factabulous]

I understand we are a fickle bunch but FDev have numbers, they can see the patterns we create from our habits.

So can we - we even have a thread that mostly does that. We don't get it right all the time, people do weird stuff. I think Ian was saying that the last Rares CG got 2.3M Tons, so 5M was a reasonable stretch target, but ofc some decided they wanted the FSD, so pushed harder.

I was a but surprised they didn't up the goal (as it was obvious on Friday that it would finish very early), but then I don't think people would have been incredibly happy with that.

 

[Rock Hunter]

Missed out on that FSD again I see. I need to quit working on Thursdays and Fridays

 

[Ian Doncaster]

I understand we are a fickle bunch but FDev have numbers, they can see the patterns we create from our habits.

That's only true where past behaviour is a predictor of future performance.

In this case, it wasn't.

The previous record total for a CG involving rare goods delivery was 2.3 million tonnes after a full week (which itself had been a significant outlier). This one got 5 million tonnes after roughly 3 days, so a delivery rate ... so the average hauling rate was five times the previous record.

There were reasons to suspect that it would set a new record, sure - which is why they set the final target to "twice the previous record". I'm not sure that anyone could have known in advance that it should have been "over ten times the previous record".



There is also an issue that, as CGs have only recently started up again, and as Fleet Carriers make many CG types a lot easier than they previously were - especially if used smartly as part of a team - that Frontier doesn't actually have that large a baseline to go on for most CG types, and they're also doing a lot of experimentation with different CG rewards and how that affects motivation and participation. Several recent CGs - the Sirius Exploration CG, the Colonia Sampling CG - have essentially been the first of their kind ever. This rares CG is only the second one run since the introduction of Fleet Carriers ... they simply don't have the data yet for some of them.

Over time, yes, they have access to all the data and it'll probably be a lot easier for them to plan. For "bulk trade" CGs with no special factors, they've done quite a few of them since the restart, the amounts are fairly predictable, and those they're a lot more confident when setting the targets [1].


[1] You can tell how confident Frontier are in the target setting by how the tiers are spaced out. Mostly evenly-spaced tiers suggest that they're very confident about how it's going to go (and are usually then right, these ones tend to either meet or just fall short of Tier 5 by the end of the week) ... ones where Tier 1 is tiny and the gap between Tier 4 and Tier 5 is huge are the more experimental ones where no-one has any idea how it's going to go, and they're trying to cover all possibilities. Occasionally, even then, Tier 5 ends up being "too low" to last the week, like this time.

 

[Donaldi]

Why was the Jupiter goal difficult and the rare goods goal easy?

IMO because one cannot really participate in a warzone with a flight carrier (although it would be intereseting to watch, like two battlestar Galacticas slugging it out).
For for cargo runs, these behemots can really store a lot.

With a flight carrier and an asp you can get a fresh 48t load of lavian brandy each time you dock after just having it unloaded to your in-system carrier. Very short round trips, followed by one or two short final delivery runs to Asby's with a T9.
During the rare goods event someone mentioned that they saw a 1.300 tons increase within one minute.

Non-FC participants actually had to fly to Lave to sell the brandy to be able to get another 48t load at Lave. (My largest delivery was about 158t (normally 160, but I kept one cask of brandy for medical purposes) which took me about 2 hours to fill.
This is no complaint against FC, I just want to show why that CG raked in more "tonnage" than the combat CG in my opinion.

When I look at the number of the Jupiter CG, the winning fraction of 12.000 participants would have had to turn in 47 million of combat bonds to reach T1.
Per day. Per pilot. Jupiter pilots (5.000) would have to delivere 125 millions. PdPp.



If I had to guess, the next CG could be a speed run.
A task of a certain kind medical supplies (Thargoid kidneys) with a very short expiry date has to be delivered to Louis' Rest within 20 minutes.
Cargo which was kept longer in the hold of individual ships (and FCs) gets bad and does not count.
Have to wait too long to dock? Better luck next time.
Interdicted, fought and arrived late? Complain to the hand.

Or delivering freight to a station which has no landing space. A neighbour station about 50km away reachable via several narrow canyons has appropriate landing spots. Hurry, hurry, little scarab, there are guardian drones about...
T1 is reached with 4 tons, T5 with 3.000 tons.
Flight carries in orbit will sell replacement SRVs. At 40.000 apiece.

Regards, Dirk

 

[Navigare Necesse Est]

That's only true where past behaviour is a predictor of future performance.

In this case, it wasn't.

The previous record total for a CG involving rare goods delivery was 2.3 million tonnes after a full week (which itself had been a significant outlier). This one got 5 million tonnes after roughly 3 days, so a delivery rate ... so the average hauling rate was five times the previous record.

There were reasons to suspect that it would set a new record, sure - which is why they set the final target to "twice the previous record". I'm not sure that anyone could have known in advance that it should have been "over ten times the previous record".



There is also an issue that, as CGs have only recently started up again, and as Fleet Carriers make many CG types a lot easier than they previously were - especially if used smartly as part of a team - that Frontier doesn't actually have that large a baseline to go on for most CG types, and they're also doing a lot of experimentation with different CG rewards and how that affects motivation and participation. Several recent CGs - the Sirius Exploration CG, the Colonia Sampling CG - have essentially been the first of their kind ever. This rares CG is only the second one run since the introduction of Fleet Carriers ... they simply don't have the data yet for some of them.

Over time, yes, they have access to all the data and it'll probably be a lot easier for them to plan. For "bulk trade" CGs with no special factors, they've done quite a few of them since the restart, the amounts are fairly predictable, and those they're a lot more confident when setting the targets [1].


[1] You can tell how confident Frontier are in the target setting by how the tiers are spaced out. Mostly evenly-spaced tiers suggest that they're very confident about how it's going to go (and are usually then right, these ones tend to either meet or just fall short of Tier 5 by the end of the week) ... ones where Tier 1 is tiny and the gap between Tier 4 and Tier 5 is huge are the more experimental ones where no-one has any idea how it's going to go, and they're trying to cover all possibilities. Occasionally, even then, Tier 5 ends up being "too low" to last the week, like this time.

Absolute numbers tell nothing. It could be cheating (the "bots") or just a bigger active player base.

 

[Northpin]

[1] You can tell how confident Frontier are in the target setting by how the tiers are spaced out. Mostly evenly-spaced tiers suggest that they're very confident about how it's going to go (and are usually then right, these ones tend to either meet or just fall short of Tier 5 by the end of the week) ... ones where Tier 1 is tiny and the gap between Tier 4 and Tier 5 is huge are the more experimental ones where no-one has any idea how it's going to go, and they're trying to cover all possibilities. Occasionally, even then, Tier 5 ends up being "too low" to last the week, like this time.

I wish this one had a 10 millions target and the good old 8 Tiers setup
But lately they seem to had settle for 5 tiered CG

IMO because one cannot really participate in a warzone with a flight carrier

Well, Jupieter's system being a permit system means no one got to park a carrier right near the CZ
And that slowed down the R&R a bit - for example, it was a 48lf trip to repair from the only easily accessible High CZ in the system and the gravitational pool around didnt helped the travel speed.

While with a Carrier within 5MM distance of a CZ is very easy to rearm and repair.

But the thing that mattered most is that they had a lot of data regarding Combat Bonds gain rate.

 

[Danieros]

Competition CGs (one side versus another) get very high goals - they're not meant to be finished. They're about leaving the competition up for the entire duration (though if you look at data you'd know the competition is over less than 12 hours in).

 

[Speedcuffs]

Nerf Fleet Carriers.