Fascinating look at FDEV's share performance, before and after Odyssey.
TL;DR - Expect stock price to get battered for next 12 months. After that Warhammer and F1 should have positive impact.
General / Off-Topic Stock analysis of Elite Dangerous for FDEV and the impact of Odyssey
- Thread starter TheSisko
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Fascinating look at FDEV's share performance, before and after Odyssey.
TL;DR - Expect stock price to get battered for next 12 months. After that Warhammer and F1 should have positive impact.
TBH the overall market was already taking a dip when EDO launched, and it rebounded soon after.
I'm willing to bet Braben took EDO as a calculated loss because he knew it was just gonna shoot back up when their other IPs launch new games.
I'm willing to bet Braben took EDO as a calculated loss because he knew it was just gonna shoot back up when their other IPs launch new games.
That is interesting....but fairly dry.
Looks like they will have to wait until 2023 to make some serious cheddar again with F1 and Warhammer.
Doesn't paint a great picture for the future of ED...If you are just looking at the business case they are probably better off assigning the ED team onto more profitable ventures. Then again they don't have a huge catalogue and culling one would hurt them....short term pain for long term gain? I think 2023 could be a decisive year for ED...we'll see.
Looks like they will have to wait until 2023 to make some serious cheddar again with F1 and Warhammer.
Doesn't paint a great picture for the future of ED...If you are just looking at the business case they are probably better off assigning the ED team onto more profitable ventures. Then again they don't have a huge catalogue and culling one would hurt them....short term pain for long term gain? I think 2023 could be a decisive year for ED...we'll see.
People always say that Elite was their biggest money maker, but I firmly believe all their other projects and IPs collectively net them more money as a whole than Elite does.
I think Jurassic World was actually their most profitable (biggest) game... Stuart GT posted about their financial results
Stuart GTs post on FD financial results
Disagree with him that ship interiors should have been prioritized first over what we have now. The entire release should have been pushed back and unified with the console release. Until then, and probably for some time after we'll be stuck with the majority of planets being ugly, grey, striped/spotted heightmap messes. The only difference I predict after the console launch will be that we no longer have the option to compare them with Horizons planets, and they will be the only option for every player.
"nah, this horse isn't that dead, just feel, it's still warm and it will fulfill our vision in the future - you mean it doesn't breath anymore? - no, really, it just takes a break from breathing for a while and has some well deserved rest, it will be a good race horse again"
That is what I think about their "vision" for the future of Elite - none of what they are saying will revive that nearly dead horse now.
That is what I think about their "vision" for the future of Elite - none of what they are saying will revive that nearly dead horse now.
muh stonks! 
Elite is far from their biggest money maker. The whole roller coaster franchise is way more profitable.
it takes some serious mis-management though to get your stocks decreasing in value at a time where stocks increased in value quite a lot in last 2 years. There was a short dive in April last year, but otherwise stocks increased in value quite a lot. Just think about where FDev would be in a decreasing market.
Yeah I watched that earlier today Sisko..interesting stuff, hard to see them hitting that 140m projection. I find it even more interesting that if they hadn't have got the presales and sales out for this launch just gone, they may not have hit this years financial target. Their trading update just says 'around the 91m mark' so without those sales for the release of Odyssey it would have slipped below expectations. Now we truly see why they rushed it out with days to go before the end of their financial year which finished in May was it?
Not bad, don't forget they also going to release Jurassic World Evolution 2 https://store.steampowered.com/app/1244460/Jurassic_World_Evolution_2/ which could probably be added to your list.
That was heavily factored in to their 2022 earnings. They expect it to outperform JWE but the truth is we don't know yet.
It's my theory to. Odyssey allowed them to push into "growth" which is good for investors. But they had to push something out the door, or miss the mark, and Odyssey was the closest to completion.
OFC I can't prove it, and some people are going to shred me for posting my mind, but this is what I think.
2021 they did remarkably well financially without actually having a release (that's their 2021 FY btw which runs from May to May) But they issue projections ahead of time as to where the board thinks the companies finance will be in the next two years and for 2021 they had predicted sales of around 90m.. I just wonder where they would be if they hadn't have been able to count all those preorders and sales of Odyssey into the 2021 books. They had already projected 2022 and 2023.. and this year coming up they expect sales of 140-160m.. EDO was being talked up in investor circles as being a big megahit that would skyrocket sales and see them really shift units to hit their targets.. Now all the investor talk is saying "yep it was an absolute turd.. but they still have some solid revenue and releases in the pipeline that could be good earners so the fundamentals of investment are strong" but they are not as confident anymore of them hitting their projections this year.
Other longer term investors are quite happy though because this dip has set a nice lower entry point to buy in for a longer return, in facr Swedbank just had to come out and declare because they had increased their position over this latest dip to over 8% so they had to make public their holding. Long term frontier are in excellent health with amazing finances on the books but if they don't have a few good releases this next year is gonna hurt.
Other longer term investors are quite happy though because this dip has set a nice lower entry point to buy in for a longer return, in facr Swedbank just had to come out and declare because they had increased their position over this latest dip to over 8% so they had to make public their holding. Long term frontier are in excellent health with amazing finances on the books but if they don't have a few good releases this next year is gonna hurt.
I thought it was Planet Zoo.
I really enjoyed JWE, looking forward to JWE2, but unless they offer some kind of super unique special that I can't miss to pre-order, I'll wait until release.
Pre-order form Frontier - shudders
So far, the other games haven't had the issues which have plagued Elite imho.
So far....
Its one which does make sense to me too. I think Drew floated that idea also on one of his videos that they needed it out before May 31st, but he explains it better than I can.