Buy the Dip...

amigacooke

amigacooke
Vandaahl said:
Just to put things into perspective:
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The perspective may be that Frontier announced various upcoming games and the market responded. Now JWE2 is a reality, the market responded again.

Bigmaec said:
How can I demand to speak to the manager if I am the manager tho?
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Look in a mirror ;)

Rubbernuke said:
Maybe I should have bought Nintendo stock all those years ago rather than play the games :D
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I definitely should have bought Apple stock years ago (as well as Mac computers) :)

zimms said:
What's the current share price in Arx?
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If you have to Arx you can't afford it ;)

Rubbernuke said:
*™BottomHat Enterprises Inc
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Can I have your sharez?
 

Ian Doncaster

Ian Doncaster
Northpin said:
Still, i'd like to know what was the trigger for the drop.
Did someone just dumped in the market a lot of their stock.
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Frontier made an announcement the day of the collapse that initial PC sales for JWE2 were below expectations. (Console sales apparently were on target)

This is bad news - they didn't say how much below expectations, but it must have been a fair bit to need to make a formal stock announcement! - so many investors sold.

The Frontier announcement said that they were hoping to make up the gap in the Christmas season - if they do, they'll presumably make another announcement to that effect and the stock will likely rise again after that. If they don't, it'll probably hang around closer to the current level until something else of interest happens.

(Could the Odyssey disaster have put PC players off buying Frontier products in general on pre-order / release day? Possibly. Doesn't matter for long-term stock value if they buy on pre-order or three months post-release, really ... so long as they buy at all, which is the bit the market and indeed Frontier must be worried about.)
 

Northpin

Northpin
Ian Doncaster said:
Frontier made an announcement the day of the collapse that initial PC sales for JWE2 were below expectations. (Console sales apparently were on target)
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Yeap, in the meantime i found and read the announcement.

And it kinda makes sense to have lower sales since the movie that was supposed to be launched this summer was postponed for 2022 and FDev's game launched without the benefit of the marketing campaign for the movie.

To put things into perspective, the first JWE game launched basically at the same time with Jurassic World Fallen Kingdom - greatly benefiting from the movie's marketing campaign.
Now, JWE2 was kinda lonely (next JW movie was postponed by a full year and is slated to hit the theaters in June 2022)
 

Bigmaec

Bigmaec
Northpin said:
Yeap, in the meantime i found and read the announcement.

And it kinda makes sense to have lower sales since the movie that was supposed to be launched this summer was postponed for 2022 and FDev's game launched without the benefit of the marketing campaign for the movie.

To put things into perspective, the first JWE game launched basically at the same time with Jurassic World Fallen Kingdom - greatly benefiting from the movie's marketing campaign.
Now, JWE2 was kinda lonely (next JW movie was postponed by a full year and is slated to hit the theaters in June 2022)
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Can't be something mundane like this.
There must be a hidden doom reason.
 

Northpin

Northpin
Bigmaec said:
Can't be something mundane like this.
There must be a hidden doom reason.
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Well, as they said in the announcement - "sales of Elite Dangerous: Odyssey have been more muted so far in FY22" - and that's entirely on FDev
But JWE2 is not a bad game at all.

Anyway, it seems there is a certain appeal for doomsaying on these forums and we know that too well :)
 

GroG79

G
Companies make an estimate on the numbers they expect to achieve this year. Lets say Fdev put 10 million profit (if you want to know the real number go look it up. It is a public company)
So investors buy or sell shares on these kind of outlooks. Now normally you just report your financials every quarter or year and if you make 9 or 11 million you will not adjust your estimates. In this case Fdev realized it will not make 10 million as estimated but lets say only 1 million. Then, depending the country/law; you have to adjust your estimates and make that public (to the shareholders) if you dont you can be put in court for misleading shareholders. So this is what Fdev did last monday. The information regarding JWE or EDO is irrelevant. That is just a 'explanation'

So shareholders (likely one or two big institutions) sold about 800k stock which made the stock price plummet

Also really appalling is that Obsidiant Ant put -40% in his video. This is just not true and makes the situation look even worse. Fdev dropped 35% when the market opened and at the end of the day the stock closed at -31%. What is he trying to do? Attracted views or is he just ignorant?

Bottom line: If you adjust your earnings downward. That is always (very) bad news
 
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Agony_Aunt

Agony_Aunt
I wouldn't buy FD's stock to support them. They did their kickstarter for Elite years ago and are now a profitable company. Share prices does not affect profits, its the other way around. JWE2 release caused it, but that doesn't affect ED, at least not directly. A concern might be that FD might take resources away from ED to make JWE2 better in time for the release of the next film.

However, if i had spare cash to invest, i'd be sorely tempted to buy FD's stock because i'm pretty certain they will go back up in the coming weeks and months and this is just a typical knee jerk reaction by the stock market.
 

GroG79

G
Fdevs ability to make profit is what is important. They just stated they are not even making their estimate. So red flag.

I personally agree on a rise over time. We have already seen 4% raise on monday after the fall. It will take some time to make a new high. If the F1 game is really good you can expect a huge price increase as that game will attract a lot of players. Plz dont play the casino. You just witnessed a lot of people loosing a lot of money. The stock might also go down over time. The usual disclaimers apply.
 

Vandaahl

Vandaahl
amigacooke {macOS} said:
The perspective may be that Frontier announced various upcoming games and the market responded. Now JWE2 is a reality, the market responded again.
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Not what I meant.

You can only have an idea about how great a loss (or gain) is when you see the bigger picture.
But I'm sure you knew that.
 

amigacooke

amigacooke
Vandaahl said:
Not what I implied either.
If you are an investor, you know how to look at bigger pictures.
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Indeed, look at the recent history of a company, see how it's products in the recent past have been received.

Is it on an upward spiral, or a downward trend?
 

GJ51

GJ51
Buying shares does not give FD capital unless they are issuing NEW shares.

There's an old adage on Wall Street: When a knife falls off the counter, never try to grab it on the way down...
 

GroG79

G
Agony_Aunt said:
How about Tencent? :p
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Seems we can put that to bed.. Tencent is not invested anymore or the share is below the 1%

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Ian Doncaster

Ian Doncaster
GroG79 said:
Seems we can put that to bed.. Tencent is not invested anymore or the share is below the 1%

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That only lists mutual funds, and Tencent isn't one.

www.marketscreener.com

Frontier Developments plc: Shareholders Board Members Managers and Company Profile | GB00BBT32N39 | MarketScreener

Frontier Developments plc: Company profile, business summary, shareholders, managers, financial ratings, industry, sector and market information | London S.E.: FDEV | London S.E.
www.marketscreener.com www.marketscreener.com
has a list of major shareholders of all types, and Tencent remain the second largest shareholder - though still a relatively small amount of the total shares.
 
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