Attached here is the PDF from today. Again, it shows several systems that are Undermined 100% before the Forts have come in. Now to be fair, there are also several systems that
are Forted before being Undermined, but then one would also expect that the Empire would have dropped the merits they were presumably holding for those systems if it was the Empire's plan to blanket Undermine and then hope the Forts come in. This is also mutually exclusive to the plan of Undermining a little bit to hopefully trigger enough Forting to cause a Fortification of that system; if the Empire was waiting until a system was forted before continuing to Undermine it, they wouldn't have time in the cycle to blanket Undermine (unless they had so many CMDRs that they could rapidly generate enough merits, but if this were the case, they would have massacred the Federation quite some time ago). Additionally, it has been cycle after cycle with no blunders or mistakes or holes
and a general lack of over-forting that is always present in the random forts that is further suspect. Look at Groombridge 1618, which is consistently Forted by randos and notice that it is at 629%. Conversely, the vast majority of systems which we believe to have been 5C forted almost always end up at 100-105%, and generally don't have a history of being forted much at all by randos.
If this was an isolated one time thing, then I would agree to call it random Forting or 'baited' Forting instead of 5C. However, looking at this data nearly every day during the Hudson Turmoil and consistently seeing instances where the Undermining comes in to 100% before the Forts, cycle after cycle, with no blunders or opportunity for the Federation to scrap (as is consisent when dealing with the randomness of random forting), and it is obvious that 5C is playing a role here. There may be instances where some systems get baited and fortified by randoms, but the empire wouldn't be dropping Undermining merits to 100% unless the Forts were first at 100%, otherwise they risk us taking control and being able to shed our loss makers.
To drive this point home further, look at the Winters data (also attached). Also please note, Winters is not in Turmoil at this time. However, the Empire is still targeting Winters in order to CC control her out of her current expansion (valid). But the Empire must also be careful not to give Winters an opportunity to scrap either, and must be particularly careful about it because the randos won't be as Fort happy because their power is not in Turmoil. Nonetheless,
all the Winters systems which are currently Undermined, save one, are at 100% before the Forts are in. Currently there is nothing stopping Winters from Red Teaming and scraping other than the absolute "hope" that those systems which are undermined get forted by "randoms". It doesn't make sense to have dropped these merits for CC Control, unless there was confidence that those same systems would then be Forted. Additionally, looking back further into our archive,
Winters never gets blanket forted except for when she is in turmoil, or we intentionally fort ourselves, even when some systems are partially undermined and thus labelled 'under threat'.
The idea of 'hoping' that randos follow through after 'baiting' them with partial undermines becomes weaker as time goes on. This is because randos are never consistent (otherwise they wouldn't be called randos, but that's semantics). It might be reasonable to suggest that randos get baited for one system, or even for one cycle, but to suggest that randos are able to consistently Fort to 100% with rarely any overfort, without ever making one mistake, or leaving any opportunity for a scrap, between not one, but two powers, becomes ridiculous after it consistently happens cycle after cycle, for well over a month.
Again, I am not accusing the others on this forum of actively participating in or orchestrating the 5C, but 5C is without a doubt playing a part in the current turmoil and attack on the Federation.
Edited for clarity because I'm dumb