Anyway, it seems that is going according to the generic plan, which is always in effect when we have Feds vs anyone_else, which is: Feds are going to win undisputed.
Competitive CG results involving the Federation in the new plot:
Caine-Massey vs Torval (January 3308): moderate Federal victory
Hudson vs Grom (October 3307): significant Federal defeat
Federation vs Defectors 2 (August 3307): significant Federal defeat
Federation vs Defectors (July 3307): significant Federal defeat
Federation vs Jupiter Division 2 (June 3307): Feds on both sides, the more official one won
Hudson vs Winters (May 3307): Feds on both sides, Hudson wins
Federation vs Nova Imperium (May 3307): narrow Federal defeat
Federation vs Jupiter Division (February 3307): Feds on both sides, the more official one won
Federation vs Empire (November 3306): significant Federal victory
Discounting the Fed vs Fed CGs, that's 2-4 against the Federation, with this one probably going to make it 3-4, but by a much narrower margin than most of the others.
(If you count Jupiter Division and Winters as "not the Federal government" to go for Hudson's score rather than the Federation's, and exclude Caine Massey for the same reasons, it's 4-4, heading for 5-4, which is better but still not "Feds always win")
They've not been anywhere near as strong in the new plot as they were in the old one.