0 Demand?

[Xavi Mendoza]

Well, I am embarrassed to ask that as an elite trader but I need to learn about it. Why can I still sell commodities with high price to a station when demand is 0? Shouldn't the price go down as the demand falls and eventually it doesn't buy from me? I can't buy if there is no supply ok but why is demand ignored?

 

[Defacto]

I think demand still affects commodity price, but for example system states have larger effects. Also, an economy that consumes a commodity tend to always allow you to sell that commodity at a elevated price, even when demand is zero.

Also, as I understand it, prices don't update in real time, but the 'bulk tax' (community term, not official) that applies when you sell goods that are a significant fraction of the demand level is considered to account for that.

If supply is zero, I guess that means there are no goods available for sale and that is why you can't buy anything. But even with zero demand, I guess someone is always willing to buy for some price.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

There are three major factors which affect the sale prices of goods.

1) What the good and local economy are (Silver sells for more than Scrap, Refinery economies pay a lot more for Explosives than anywhere else)
2) What the BGS state is (Medicines sell for more in Outbreak)
3) What the demand level is (as a proportion of the local demand cap)

In general, for almost all goods, that's also the order of significance. No combination of BGS states will make Medicine sell for more than Silver does (assuming the station imports both in the first place, of course) ... demand level is very much a smaller influence than BGS states in most cases, but can be important.

Demand can go strongly negative - though it's still displayed as zero. It might be better thought of as "premium demand" - at zero, they'll still take it and move it to some local storage off-screen, and get around to using it later, but won't pay the extra for it that you get at non-zero demand where they're actively seeking sellers.

 

[Xavi Mendoza]

I understand that when the demand is 0, they buy at low prices, after all it is used in production. But yesterday I sold commodities to the highest pricing station in the galaxy, despite the demand 0. Probably I thought demand will be valid after the server restart, but today I continue to sell for the same price.

 

[here_it_comes]

Well, I am embarrassed to ask that as an elite trader

No need to be embarrassed, Trader rank is meaningless. I made Elite Trader a long time ago, and the only space trucking I've ever done was selling 1 ton of whatever to 50 stations to complete the Lei Chung grind gameplay. I'm "Elite", and literally know nothing about commodities in ED besides the fact that there is a button for it in the station menus.

 

[K Olley]

I saw mention of this somewhere, you get the price that's shown with no bulk sales tax, have not had the chance yet to try it out but it sounds useful if its true.

 

[Danieros]

It's a bit counter-intuitive.

Stock is a factor for price, but BGS states are by far the most important component for prices. They come with multipliers to certain commodities prices and stock. Multiple states can even stack. This how a few commodities can reach 30k-60k profit per ton.

Because these multipliers are very significant, this can result in a 0 demand price still being good.

 

[Clicker]

The price you get paid for commodities is a mathematical equation which seems to be directly proportional to demand/galactic average or an arbitrarily derived min/max window so long as demand is > 0. Somewhere in that equation there's a divide by zero error which effectively results in you being paid the galactic maximum for the commodity.

As I am by no means a mathematically competent person and only have a rather basic grasp of English, I'm most likely wrong.
But it sounds good, hey, and you almost believed it.

Unless of course, you are mathematically competant and have a higher than average comprehension of English, where by I'll stand corrected and be humbled by your brilliant and witty and no doubt mathematically correct retort.

Clicker.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

The price you get paid for commodities is a mathematical equation which seems to be directly proportional to demand/galactic average or an arbitrarily derived min/max window so long as demand is > 0. Somewhere in that equation there's a divide by zero error which effectively results in you being paid the galactic maximum for the commodity.

Nice try, but no

The relationship between demand and price is fairly straightforward (once other factors which also affect price are removed):

History of Pesticides at Vitto Orbital

History of Biowaste at Vitto Orbital

As demand reduces, price also reduces linearly with it, until demand falls below a certain percentage of the maximum (which seems to vary for different trade goods) ... and then the price becomes constant for all demands between that cut-off and zero.

 

[Xavi Mendoza]

Well, can we talk about a real example? Ross 33 system, Crown City station, Bauxite commodity.

Goodbye EDDB

Goodbye EDDB

eddb.io

As seen in the picture, demand is 0 and buying with a very high price.

Moreover, looking at the chart, although Demand has been 0 for a long time, it continues to buy at this price.



Any comments?

 

[Brrokk]

I saw mention of this somewhere, you get the price that's shown with no bulk sales tax, have not had the chance yet to try it out but it sounds useful if its true.

The price you get paid for commodities is a mathematical equation which seems to be directly proportional to demand/galactic average or an arbitrarily derived min/max window so long as demand is > 0. Somewhere in that equation there's a divide by zero error which effectively results in you being paid the galactic maximum for the commodity.

As I am by no means a mathematically competent person and only have a rather basic grasp of English, I'm most likely wrong.
But it sounds good, hey, and you almost believed it.

Unless of course, you are mathematically competant and have a higher than average comprehension of English, where by I'll stand corrected and be humbled by your brilliant and witty and no doubt mathematically correct retort.

Clicker.

So 0 really means "infinity"?

 

[Ian Doncaster]

Well, can we talk about a real example? Ross 33 system, Crown City station, Bauxite commodity.

Sure, that makes it easier.

Bauxite is affected strongly in price by three states - all of which roughly triple the demand price:

• Investment or Boom
• Expansion
• Infrastructure Failure

This station has all three, so the combination of them means that the price is ~27 times higher than normal.

State Effects: Bauxite

This would normally give a price of around 45,000 credits/tonne compared with the normal 1,500 credits/tonne

However, as you've noticed, it's at zero demand. This substantially suppresses the price they're willing to pay for it, down to the 27,000/tonne that you see.

So you've got "base price" * 3 * 3 * 3 (for the states) then * 0.6ish (for having no demand)

If there was another station with full demand and all three of the states, it would be paying 45k/tonne. But getting those three states at once on the same station - which also has to be a Refinery, so it actually imports Bauxite at all - is not a common thing, which is why this is the only known one in the bubble right now. (There might be others which no-one has told EDDB about, of course...)

Another station with full demand and only two states would get "base price" * 3 * 3, which is only around 15k/tonne.

So with this powerful - and rare - combination of states, the station is able to outbid every other station despite being at zero demand, because the states overwhelm the demand effect.

Eventually both the Expansion or Infrastructure Failure will wear off - probably only in a few more days - and the price will drop down to a much less remarkable level.

(This also explains why it has zero demand for Bauxite, of all things, at all - it takes a lot of people continually hauling to fill the demand for Bauxite!)



EDIT: Bauxite, incidentally, is one of the few goods which will do this - its maximum state multiplier of ~31x is ridiculously good (4th best), and is combined with a fairly high base price.

 

[Xavi Mendoza]

Sure, that makes it easier.

Bauxite is affected strongly in price by three states - all of which roughly triple the demand price:

• Investment or Boom
• Expansion
• Infrastructure Failure

This station has all three, so the combination of them means that the price is ~27 times higher than normal.

State Effects: Bauxite

This would normally give a price of around 45,000 credits/tonne compared with the normal 1,500 credits/tonne

However, as you've noticed, it's at zero demand. This substantially suppresses the price they're willing to pay for it, down to the 27,000/tonne that you see.

So you've got "base price" * 3 * 3 * 3 (for the states) then * 0.6ish (for having no demand)

If there was another station with full demand and all three of the states, it would be paying 45k/tonne. But getting those three states at once on the same station - which also has to be a Refinery, so it actually imports Bauxite at all - is not a common thing, which is why this is the only known one in the bubble right now. (There might be others which no-one has told EDDB about, of course...)

Another station with full demand and only two states would get "base price" * 3 * 3, which is only around 15k/tonne.

So with this powerful - and rare - combination of states, the station is able to outbid every other station despite being at zero demand, because the states overwhelm the demand effect.

Eventually both the Expansion or Infrastructure Failure will wear off - probably only in a few more days - and the price will drop down to a much less remarkable level.

(This also explains why it has zero demand for Bauxite, of all things, at all - it takes a lot of people continually hauling to fill the demand for Bauxite!)



EDIT: Bauxite, incidentally, is one of the few goods which will do this - its maximum state multiplier of ~31x is ridiculously good (4th best), and is combined with a fairly high base price.

Great answer just what I need to know, thanks. Is there a text describing the connections between commodities and situations like this?

 

[Ian Doncaster]

Great answer just what I need to know, thanks. Is there a text describing the connections between commodities and situations like this?

The basic theory - which isn't complete, but good enough to get started with - I described a while back at https://forums.frontier.co.uk/threa...ly-demand-and-relationship-to-the-bgs.441646/

https://cdb.sotl.org.uk/effects has links to how BGS states affect each commodity, based on sample calculations. (Colonia's systems don't have many of the mixed economies that are common in the bubble, which makes this analysis much easier)

There are other bits of data on https://cdb.sotl.org.uk/reserves (the production and consumption cycle columns - the rest is of local interest only) and https://cdb.sotl.org.uk/specialisation which you'd need if you were trying to reverse-engineer the state of a market from an EDDB snapshot, or trying to predict the future behaviour of a market in particular conditions.

I keep much longer histories than EDDB - though of fewer markets - of how supply/demand/price varies, so you can browse through those and pick up the patterns a bit. Here's an example of one showing both the square-edged but infrequent effects of state changes, and the more continuous saw-tooth patterns of demand being met and then refilling.

History of Coffee at Jaques Station

 

[Xavi Mendoza]

You are a very exceptional man

 

[Neilski]

Bauxite, incidentally, is one of the few goods which will do this - its maximum state multiplier of ~31x is ridiculously good (4th best), and is combined with a fairly high base price.

.......Well, just wow, that's some amazing information you've gathered there - I'm in awe.
I've had a look on your site but am failing to find a way to discover which 3 commodities have even higher maximum multipliers than bauxite, and I'm curious to know what they are

 

[Ian Doncaster]

Here's everything with a theoretical maximum multiplier over 10 that I know of (you can find this out for an individual cargo by opening its Effects page and multiplying the best compatible states together, but there's no easy way to do get the full list)

| monazite                    | 10.31 |
| SurvivalEquipment           | 13.56 |
| SyntheticFabrics            | 13.57 |
| Fish                        | 15.18 |
| FruitAndVegetables          | 16.11 |
| Water                       | 19.54 |
| CeramicComposites           | 19.71 |
| Polymers                    | 21.14 |
| FoodCartridges              | 21.41 |
| WaterPurifiers              | 23.60 |
| BasicMedicines              | 25.56 |
| USSCargoRareArtwork         | 27.09 |
| Platinum                    | 28.00 |
| Bauxite                     | 31.04 |
| EvacuationShelter           | 32.11 |
| Grain                       | 36.01 |
| SyntheticMeat               | 45.11 |

(Note that the automatic calculations need fairly stable prices - i.e. minimal demand sawtoothing... - to get the data to work, so the Platinum figure is probably wrong, and I'm not completely convinced by the Monazite one either. But the rest look about right from my experience)