1) Will a T1 industrial settlement M/L produce the same amount as a T2 industrial hub?
The T1 settlement has its own market, so in that sense produces a lot more than the hub, which doesn't.
Tier 1 settlements (small/medium) produce strong links at 0.4 (before modifiers), Tier 2 settlements (large) and Tier 2 hubs produce strong links at 0.8 (before modifiers).
Both produce weak links at 0.05 unmodifiable.
But on top of that ... an Industrial settlement grants +3/6/9 (depending on size) to development level, which has a big effect on market sizes, whereas an Industrial hub grants +3 only (but boosts tech level, and boosts wealth more than any of the settlements, and opens shipyards at any T1 planetary ports if your tech level is >35)
2) Will 4 slots each containing an industrial settlement/hub and a 5th containing a planetary outpost cause an orbital station to produce more than filling all 5 slots with settlements/hubs?
It's unlikely to make that much difference to what the orbital station itself produces either way, but the total combined output available at markets will be much higher with the two stations rather than just one, because the planetary outpost market will be huge.
(In this situation, I would start by building the planetary outpost, then if that somehow doesn't have enough industrial output already, build a single Tier 2 settlement next to it, and then I'd be very surprised if you still don't have enough commodities after that. Then build the others if you feel like building stuff, but it won't matter for commodity availability)