But that's the Elite genre's whole bag; there isn't an end... it's just endless procedurally generated stuff... and where ED kinda dropped the ball.
They didn't lean hard enough into the procedural, and instead erred on GM-injected content, requiring significantly more effort longer term, for significantly less impact.
Procedural generation without limits isn't good either - the constraints that Stellar Forge has to try to make realistic systems vs NMS "just throw 2-3 planets in the system randomly with random economies" make Elite vastly better.
A game can be endless but it has to change it up enough to not be repetitive and having a forever war instead of occasional outbursts would be just that. Eventually that would get boring and repetitive too though.
Procedural generation without limits isn't good either - the constraints that Stellar Forge has to try to make realistic systems vs NMS "just throw 2-3 planets in the system randomly with random economies" make Elite vastly better.
A game can be endless but it has to change it up enough to not be repetitive and having a forever war instead of occasional outbursts would be just that. Eventually that would get boring and repetitive too though.
I don’t think a “perpetual war” is where things are headed either because that would be the least interesting way to go about the story. Whereas a split between Aegis and Salvation/Nemesis could be, given the possible wider implications… if Frontier are willing to give players a legitimate option to support Thargoids, or the human side more favorable to them. Instead of just “Negative human biases get reinforced further and they launch a nonsensical assault into Thargoid home territory which carries on until forever(the next game [if one comes]”.
But this thread is also not exactly meant as a discussion page for a more lore-oriented subject, so I’m not sure if I feel too comfy going further into it here.
- the constraints that Stellar Forge has to try to make realistic systems vs NMS "just throw 2-3 planets in the system randomly with random economies" make Elite vastly better.
It seems like you're conflating procedural with simple randomness.. or rather, good procedural generation vs bad procedural generation. Yes, there's an element of randomness to good procedural, but it's within a sane left and right of arc. Throw a new procedurally generated faction in the middle of a region flooded with Imperial factions, and a good procedural generation process should almost always make that faction Imperial, whereas random would give that a 25% chance.
Remember this is contextualised around the Thargoid war though, which is an activity. Procedural is very much Elite's strength, but poorly applied to it's activities. But I'll save regurgitating that post for another day, because this
But this thread is also not exactly meant as a discussion page for a more lore-oriented subject, so I’m not sure if I feel too comfy going further into it here.
A game can be endless but it has to change it up enough to not be repetitive and having a forever war instead of occasional outbursts would be just that. Eventually that would get boring and repetitive too though.
Which is exactly what my post earlier implied. A "forever war" in the bubble would be dumb. What would be better for indefinite use of these mechanics would be to have the war reach a natural conclusion, but go "Oh no, but out in the cone sector is where all the Thargoids live!" and create a very dense region for those seeking to replay the mechanics we have now, in a region
A "forever war" in the bubble would be dumb. What would be better for indefinite use of these mechanics would be to have the war reach a natural conclusion, but go "Oh no, but out in the cone sector is where all the Thargoids live!" and create a very dense region for those seeking to replay the mechanics we have now, in a region
I meant generally, but I’m not opposed to the idea if there are other ways to interact with that region than just going there to shoot and interfere with Thargoids*. Which, of course, to even be allowed in unbothered, you’d need to be in good standing with them(however you’d achieve so).
*Providing this is a story direction Frontier is willing to go down, but I’d like it if they did. Or a region where there aren’t angry Thargoids should exist outside of the relatively small nebula colonies.
Didn't suggest anything like that was good... rather procedural generation was Elite's thing.
It seems like you're conflating procedural with simple randomness.. or rather, good procedural generation vs bad procedural generation. Yes, there's an element of randomness to good procedural, but it's within a sane left and right of arc. Throw a new procedurally generated faction in the middle of a region flooded with Imperial factions, and a good procedural generation process should almost always make that faction Imperial, whereas random would give that a 25% chance.
Remember this is contextualised around the Thargoid war though, which is an activity. Procedural is very much Elite's strength, but poorly applied to it's activities. But I'll save regurgitating that post for another day, because this
Which is exactly what my post earlier implied. A "forever war" in the bubble would be dumb. What would be better for indefinite use of these mechanics would be to have the war reach a natural conclusion, but go "Oh no, but out in the cone sector is where all the Thargoids live!" and create a very dense region for those seeking to replay the mechanics we have now, in a region
The war is not in the bubble but on the side of the bubble, its territory essentially unchanged. And if you don't want to interact with the Thargoids, just don't go there.
Looking at M. Oya week 48 and thinking in terms of the Control systems performing the scans, it looks as if the scanners can become the foci for distances, at least in some cases. It looks like the inhabited HIP 8525 scanned from itself and surprised the present model by reaching HIP 2422, while the empty Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-2 scanned and reached the Titan-farthest Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-3. If only the inhabited scanners become locked onto the farthest target from themselves, I think it could work if:
Non-scanners attack the nearest revealed targets, at present unsure whether this is nearest to themselves, to the scanner or to the Titan.
Such targets are revealed at most once that way for immediate attacks, although a scanner can still end upon one.
Non-scanners get another chance to strike nearest targets after scanning is complete, but before the scanners attack.
The reason for adding this opportunity is because Hyades Sector GW-W d1-99 would fail to attack in week 44 without it.
The reason for keeping the immediate attacks is so that HIP 21125 gets attacked.
Non-scanners can steal targets from scanners.
Needed so that Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-5 gets attacked by Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-14 sooner rather than being missed by Chanyaya later.
Then for M. Oya week 48 we have:
The Titan scan finds nothing, leaving four scans and five attacks remaining.
The attack aside, HIP 13179 and Cephei Sector AF-A c9 remain silent because they are able to scan for more targets of their own.
HIP 13179 finds Cephei Sector AF-A c21 and HIP 11111 in order from itself.
Now with nothing more to find, Cephei Sector AF-A c9 attacks Cephei Sector AF-A c21 immediately, which is nearest by all measures.
HIP 8525 finds many targets, ending with HIP 2422 as the farthest from itself.
Farthest from the Titan is Gliese 3050, and the Titan-farthest inhabited system is the predicted Poqomathi, but the attacked HIP 2422 is farthest from the scanner.
Scans are depleted, no other attackers can act, and there are three attacks remaining for the three marked non-stolen targets.
For M. Taranis week 44:
The Titan scans Hyades Sector EG-N b7-0 for Hyades Sector EG-N b7-1 to attack.
The Titan finds nothing, leaving three scans and four attacks remaining.
The non-scanning Hyades Sector GW-W d1-99 attacks Hyades Sector PN-T c3-5, then the two remaining attacks go to the Titan-nearest marks with Ixbalan missing Hyades Sector PN-T c3-8.
In this case the possible definition of nearest is by both measures, although M. Thor week 53 requires this to be Titan-nearest.
For M. Thor week 54:
The Titan finds nothing, leaving five scans and six attacks remaining.
Col 285 Sector QB-E b12-0 finds Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-2.
Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-5 finds three ending with Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-3 from the Titan.
Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-2 holds.
Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-2 finds four ending with Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-3 from the Titan.
Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-3 finds Col 285 Sector KB-O c6-2.
HIP 19046 attacks.
Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-1 finds six ending with Col 285 Sector KA-G b11-0 from the Titan.
Five remaining attacks go to the five marks four non-stolen marks, with one attack lost for lack of scans.
For M. Thor week 53:
The Titan finds nothing, leaving five scans and six attacks remaining.
Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-2 finds five ending with Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-8 from the Titan.
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-5 and Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-1 both hold.
Col 285 Sector OG-E b12-2 finds Col 285 Sector OG-E b12-0.
Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-2 attacks.
Chanyaya finds Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-0 and Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-5 in order from itself.
HIP 19894 attacks Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-0; unsure if this is due to the attacker or the target being Titan-nearest.
Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-14 attacks Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-5.
Col 285 Sector LV-F b11-1 finds HIP 19600.
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-5 finds six ending with Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-7 from the Titan.
Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-1 attacks the nearer HIP 21125 immediately, the four others having lost their immediate attack opportunity earlier.
Once again, nearest is by all measures.
Two remaining attacks go to the Titan-nearest non-stolen marks with Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-5 missing Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-7.
As usual it gets all very far-fetched when attempting to explain every strange case, giving it a much greater chance of making many more mistakes than of only curing existing mistakes, although I can but try!
Do you expect Taranis' attack to be weaker than before, due to it being isolated from spire sites ("resupply")? Or is that exactly what we're supposed to find out now? ^^
I think I recall that when people tested the Leigong attack, the individual system strengths didn't seem to differ.
It's a possibility that a Maelstrom without spires might not get 6 Alerts, but unless they get a lot fewer I wouldn't expect either Taranis or Leigong to have enough perimeter to generate 6 Alerts anyway for quite a while ... by which time they'll have recaptured a spire.
Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first six would be expected to be hit by Alerts. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them. If the Control Sphere Edge is reached and targeting mode switches, predictive confidence is lower and the consequences of recaptures may be more significant.
Table key
Target: Name of system considered at threat of Alert. Bold if in Control-based prioritisation it would be eligible for backtrack targeting. Target Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the target. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation. Control Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the attacking Control. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation when attacking outside the control sphere. Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through; controls containing a Spire are bold. Once targeting switches to Control-based rather than Target-based prioritisation, only one is listed here. Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Taranis
Read 0 control systems and 998 regional systems.
Total connected: 0
Furthest Control: 0.000 LY
Target
Target Distance
Control Distance
Attackers
Inhabited?
-
-
-
Control Sphere Edge
-
If the Titan emergency attack occurs at zero controls rather than zero systems (or uses up spare Alert budget) and the Titan emergency attack does not have the one-week cooldown of a Control, then HR 1737 will almost certainly be this week's target.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Leigong
Read 1 control systems and 997 regional systems.
Total connected: 0 Disconnected Controls
HIP 8525; (backtrack BD+77 84)(backtrack Cephei Sector DQ-Y b2)(backtrack Bumbo)(backtrack HIP 2422)(backtrack Cephei Sector DQ-Y b6)(backtrack Gliese 3050)
Yes
Only five targets for Oya. The HIP 8525 attack will probably not be to Poqomathi - last time round it went for HIP 2422.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Cocijo
Read 62 control systems and 930 regional systems.
Total connected: 61 Disconnected Controls
System
Distance
Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-1
20.85255624
Furthest Control: 21.999 LY
Target
Target Distance
Control Distance
Attackers
Inhabited?
Col 285 Sector BA-P c6-16
21.655
16.153
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-143;
No
Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-2
21.760
16.728
Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-3; HIP 38235; Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-8;
No
-
-
-
Control Sphere Edge
-
Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-5
24.181
14.622
Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-1; (backtrack Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-6)
No
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-136
22.883
15.249
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-92; (backtrack Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-69)
No
Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-6
22.723
15.670
HIP 36809;
No
Vocovii
23.671
15.964
Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-17; (backtrack Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-0)(backtrack Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-3)
Yes
Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-6
25.235
16.365
Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-4; (backtrack Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-53)(backtrack Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-0)
No
Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-2
24.746
16.621
Ulche; (backtrack Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-1)(backtrack Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-6)
No
Col 285 Sector AF-E b13-5
26.491
17.688
Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-3; (backtrack Hez Ur)(backtrack Canaharvas)(backtrack Chibis)
Yes
Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-0
25.038
17.735
Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-7;
No
Cocijo hits the sphere edge. None of its Alerts are in a position to expand the sphere this time, and there's an early backtrack possible, so it should get out to Vocovii.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Thor
Read 37 control systems and 957 regional systems.
Total connected: 33 Disconnected Controls
System
Distance
Rajuarpai
11.4695589
Chanyaya
16.10879151
HIP 19894
16.20887223
Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-14
17.71585625
Furthest Control: 21.239 LY
Target
Target Distance
Control Distance
Attackers
Inhabited?
Col 285 Sector OG-E b12-0
19.071
14.391
Col 285 Sector OG-E b12-2; Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-2;
No
HIP 20024
19.461
11.470
Rajuarpai; Chanyaya; HIP 19894; etc
Yes
HIP 19600
20.316
16.563
Col 285 Sector LV-F b11-1;
No
-
-
-
Control Sphere Edge
-
HIP 18075
21.405
13.208
Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-11;
Yes
Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-5
24.842
16.109
Chanyaya; (backtrack Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-0)
No
Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-0
21.776
16.209
HIP 19894;
No
Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-4
22.217
17.210
Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-5;
No
Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-1
22.991
17.596
Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-2; (backtrack Col 285 Sector OG-E b12-1)
No
Col 285 Sector KB-O c6-3
22.642
18.083
Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-3;
No
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-1
25.234
18.984
Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-1; (backtrack Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-96)(backtrack Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-8)(backtrack HIP 21125)(backtrack Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-7)
No
Thor's Alerts are all interior this week too, so with Chanyaya allowing a backtrack this should also be a 6-Alert week, and probably not much choice about being this specific six.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Raijin
Read 81 control systems and 910 regional systems.
Total connected: 81
HIP 8525 attacks HIP 2422 instead of Poqomathi, as expected.
Taranis doesn't attack - though there are still a few possible reasons for that at this stage.
Within that, all predictions correct.
Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first six would be expected to be hit by Alerts. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them. If the Control Sphere Edge is reached and targeting mode switches, predictive confidence is lower and the consequences of recaptures may be more significant.
Table key
Target: Name of system considered at threat of Alert. Bold if in Control-based prioritisation it would be eligible for backtrack targeting. Target Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the target. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation. Control Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the attacking Control. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation when attacking outside the control sphere. Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through; controls containing a Spire are bold. Once targeting switches to Control-based rather than Target-based prioritisation, only one is listed here. Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.
This week should be the one we need to get a good model of when Titans can attack, with both Taranis and Leigong entering unprecedented states - though depending on what happens there may still be multiple possibilities on the details.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Taranis
Read 0 control systems and 998 regional systems.
Total connected: 0
Furthest Control: 0.000 LY
Target
Target Distance
Control Distance
Attackers
Inhabited?
-
-
-
Control Sphere Edge
-
If the emergency attack can be carried out this week, then HR 1737 is the most likely target.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Leigong
Read 1 control systems and 998 regional systems.
Total connected: 0 Disconnected Controls
System
Distance
HIP 9016
9.602805173
Furthest Control: 9.603 LY
Target
Target Distance
Control Distance
Attackers
Inhabited?
-
-
-
Control Sphere Edge
-
Arietis Sector BQ-P b5-0
14.458
9.603
HIP 9016;
No
We'll also have a conventional alert here. If there is a Maelstrom attack, it should be to HIP 8033.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Indra
Read 52 control systems and 938 regional systems.
Total connected: 49 Disconnected Controls
HIP 21179; (backtrack Ross 378)(backtrack Hyades Sector QI-S b4-2)
Yes
HIP 20741
24.478
17.089
HIP 20916; (backtrack HIP 20485)(backtrack HIP 20815)(backtrack 92 Sigma-2 Tauri)(backtrack HR 1358)(backtrack 58 Tauri)(backtrack HIP 20527)(backtrack 55 Tauri)(backtrack HIP 20899)(backtrack HIP 20146)(backtrack HIP 20948)(backtrack HIP 20492)(backtrack 78 Theta-2 Tauri)(backtrack 80 Tauri)(backtrack HIP 20605)
Yes
Hyades Sector TO-Q b5-2
22.525
17.419
Arietis Sector MM-V b2-1;
No
The backtrack placed by HG-X b1-1 to HG-X b1-0 is usable, it's just a long way down the list because Indra's perimeter is huge. So the prediction is the top 5, plus JH-V c2-13 attacking HG-X b1-0 (which will be a spire reactivation attack). Taking out JH-V c2-13 at Control might be worthwhile even in a defensive posture as it will lose Indra an Alert next week, as well as delaying its ability to attack the spire.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Oya
Read 24 control systems and 969 regional systems.
Total connected: 24
M. Cocijo did not produce the expected attack at Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-136! Instead it attacked Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-69; I have not followed it thoroughly in the context of my little scan-and-illuminate story earlier, but briefly and approximately it looks to me that:
The exterior begins with three scans and four attacks.
Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-1 finds -6 and -5, both are attacked immediately by HIP 36809 and Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-1 with Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-4 holding for more.
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-92 finds -69 and -136, Col 285 Sector XY-F b12-5 attacks the former, and I am unsure why Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-137 holds.
Notably its range is a precarious 9.98 Ly to attack the latter.
Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-17 finds three targets ending with Vocovii; -18 holds because it can see also Col 285 Sector RS-H b11-6.
With two marks but only one remaining attack, Vocovii is at least the closest, and probably has inhabited priority regardless Vocovii has inhabited priority.
The lack of Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-137 attacking is irksome, although notably that story changes so many attackers that an alternative history could be more likely than a failed 9.98 Ly range. It sounds also terribly muddled and probably still not parallel with the real process; I have the feeling of needing different verbs before said process has a correct way to word it at all.
As a normal failure of the model, Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-92 attacking d3-69 rather than d3-136 isn't any more unusual than the repeatable behaviour at Ixbalan or HIP 8525 - but then, there was a 6th of 6 attack at Thor recently, too.
The simplest answer would probably be that the "furthest from Titan" measure isn't what it's trying to maximise - but I still can't find another one which works in that context.
Indeed M. Taranis was part of the reason for considering the initial scans—that same process explains Ixbalan! I detailed it earlier here; the summary is that Ixbalan scans and ends up stuck targeting the farthest Hyades Sector PN-T c3-8, the other non-scanning Control systems get sooner opportunities to attack the revealed -5 and -7 by closest-first, then ultimately Ixbalan is dropped when the scanners attack because two other scanner-targets are closer. That is to say, the scans leave them stuck with their farthest target choices individually, but come time to attack they do so with nearest-first. I proposed that all attacks are always nearest-first naturally, just with the scanners getting stuck unable to look backwards!
HIP 8525 was where things get more obscure; the way it likes HIP 2422 seems due to being farthest from itself rather than farthest from T. Oya. Thus far it looks as if inhabited Control systems may be scanning outward from themselves while empty Control systems use the Titan distance, although that seems too inelegant.
Given that the scan-first process produces very different versions of events with who attacks whom even when the actual targets agree, I wonder whether it could help to find at least one week for each Maelstrom where all of its attackers can be deduced with certainty, then see if V can make a test which also tracks them. For several Maelstroms it could be easy to start at a week which had no Alerts, and I imagine it would be fine to stop the process if a real known Alert becomes impossible.
Yes. The other thing to watch is probably the action at Thor around EA-Q c5-5 - a lot of targets and a fair bit of overlap, but in general they do go for the furthest possible target from the Titan consistently.
The summary is that Ixbalan scans and ends up stuck targeting the farthest Hyades Sector PN-T c3-8, the other non-scanning Control systems get sooner opportunities to attack the revealed -5 and -7 by closest-first, then ultimately Ixbalan is dropped when the scanners attack because two other scanner-targets are closer. That is to say, the scans leave them stuck with their farthest target choices individually, but come time to attack they do so with nearest-first. I proposed that all attacks are always nearest-first naturally, just with the scanners getting stuck unable to look backwards!
And we never got a case where Ixbalan could have attacked in the following week had it not been resting, so something where it didn't attack would be hard to contradict.
If you can come up with a way to systematically scan forwards from a "safe" baseline (which doesn't necessarily even need to be all Alert sources known, provided that the unknown ones are in a different branch) then that should hopefully come to a point where different systems are being used as attackers for something more obvious.
Mostly out of curiosity - and for not being too up to date on targeting rules/functionality of controls - is there any particular reason why Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-5 is going to attack Montioch straight away/first, rather than Vogulu?
I can see that there are two separate controls capable of hitting both, but unpopulated strikes make Hadad run out of attacks before it reaches Vogulu(and RH-B b14-4 isn’t marked as the predicted attacker for an unpopulated alert).
So why go for the inner inhabited, rather than outer inhabited in this case?
While hitting targets within the sphere defined by the outermost control system, the Thargoids always prioritise the closest system they can reach. It's only when attacking outside their own sphere that they (usually) go for more distant targets.
Thor or Indra have examples of the transition between targeting methods this week.
A. What exactly is a ‘backtrack’ in terms of the controls attacking?
B. What does the ‘Furthest potential capture’ for some of the Titan tables refer to?
Both of those might be answered at respective points throughout the thread, but I haven’t found a moment with the motivation to read through it all so far.
When acting outside the existing sphere, the switch from "internal" to "external" targeting appears to provisionally cost an Alert in itself.
If an external attacker skips over a closer target, then a second external attacker can attack that closer target to recover that Alert (which is the backtrack) ... and if that hasn't been done by the time the penultimate Alert is placed, then only backtrack Alerts can be placed as the final one.
If a Maelstrom has placed an Alert further out than its most distant Control, then if it won that system the sphere would expand before the next set of Alerts were placed, which means that more targets may be available as "internal", and so the priority order is very likely to change.
Thor this week provides a good example of both: if all Alerts are recaptured, then the prediction is:
- 2 internal attacks
- provisionally spend an Alert switching to external targeting
- 2 external attacks (both of which skip over many closer systems)
- a backtrack attack where the 5th Alert is to a system that the 4th Control attacker could also see
- that recovers the provisional Alert, so then there's a sixth Alert.
But, if Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-5 hadn't been defended already, that would push the Control perimeter out to 24 LY, which would make a lot of the targets on the list internal ones. Looking at the table, Thor would then have enough targets to make six internal Alerts on the usual closest-first priority.
(HIP 18075 hasn't been defended yet, but as it's inhabited that would be an Invasion anyway, and even if it wasn't it doesn't push the perimeter out far enough to matter this time)
