Analysing the Thargoid Simulation

Ian Doncaster · May 2, 2024

Narwhal Nose report generated 2 May

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Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first six would be expected to be hit by Alerts. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them. If the Control Sphere Edge is reached and targeting mode switches, predictive confidence is lower and the consequences of recaptures may be more significant.

Table key
Target: Name of system considered at threat of Alert. Bold if in Control-based prioritisation it would be eligible for backtrack targeting.
Target Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the target. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation.
Control Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the attacking Control. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation when attacking outside the control sphere.
Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through; controls containing a Spire are bold. Once targeting switches to Control-based rather than Target-based prioritisation, only one is listed here.
Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.

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Calculating Indra
Read 113 control systems and 870 regional systems.
Total connected: 113

Furthest Control: 26.135 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
HIP 20492	24.043	15.082	71 Tauri; HIP 20916; HIP 20577; etc	Yes
78 Theta-2 Tauri	24.568	17.089	HIP 20916; HIP 20577; 86 Rho Tauri; etc	No
HR 1403	24.664	18.554	HIP 20712; Arietis Sector JR-V b2-4; HIP 20890; etc	Yes
Arietis Sector TY-P a6-2	25.900	22.851	Arietis Sector TY-P a6-0; Arietis Sector TY-P a6-1; Hyades Sector DX-H a11-1;	No
Arietis Sector JM-T a4-0	25.940	23.327	Arietis Sector OS-R a5-0;	No
Hyades Sector IH-U b3-3	26.020	18.372	Hyades Sector NN-S b4-1; Hyades Sector NN-S b4-0; Hyades Sector JH-U b3-5;	No
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Hyades Sector JH-U b3-4	27.169	17.960	Hyades Sector NN-S b4-2;	No
HIP 21474	27.124	18.734	86 Rho Tauri; (backtrack HIP 21654)(backtrack 90 c1 Tauri)	Yes
90 c1 Tauri	26.476	19.444	79 b Tauri; (backtrack HIP 20826)	No
Hyades Sector PI-S b4-0	26.751	19.514	Hyades Sector PI-S b4-3 (9.900 LY);	No
HIP 21380	26.610	19.729	Arietis Sector JR-V b2-4 (9.996 LY); (backtrack 69 Upsilon Tauri)(backtrack Arietis Sector NS-R a5-0)	Yes
Hyades Sector GX-H a11-4	29.433	20.093	HIP 22524; (backtrack HIP 23069)	No
Hyades Sector XU-O b6-1	29.811	20.227	Scythia (9.915 LY); (backtrack Arietis Sector QS-T b3-2)	No
91 Sigma-1 Tauri	29.419	20.629	77 Theta-1 Tauri; (backtrack HIP 20850)(backtrack 57 h Tauri)(backtrack HIP 21317)(backtrack 89 Tauri)(backtrack 85 Tauri)(backtrack 81 Tauri)(backtrack 83 Tauri)	Yes
48 Tauri	27.453	20.963	70 Tauri;	Yes
Hyades Sector BC-I a11-1	29.648	21.108	Lei Hsini; (backtrack Hyades Sector AR-J a10-1)(backtrack Hyades Sector EX-H a11-1)	No

An early usable backtrack, so Indra should be able to place nine Alerts comfortably.

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Calculating Cocijo
Read 184 control systems and 802 regional systems.
Total connected: 184

Furthest Control: 29.507 LY
Furthest potential capture: 32.062 LY - may affect result if not defended

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Sukurbago	24.150	23.878	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-7;	Yes
Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-2	25.800	27.816	Col 285 Sector WN-H b11-5;	No
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Col 285 Sector RS-H b11-3	31.399	23.090	Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-0;	No
Col 285 Sector WD-G b12-0	31.821	23.150	Col 285 Sector XY-F b12-6; (backtrack Col 285 Sector VD-G b12-5)	No
Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-16	30.965	23.772	Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-0; (backtrack Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-6)	No
Col 285 Sector US-H b11-4	31.025	24.101	Col 285 Sector US-H b11-2;	No
Daisla	31.962	24.157	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-1; (backtrack Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-5)(backtrack Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-3)(backtrack Col 285 Sector CA-E b13-2)	Yes
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-3	30.014	24.162	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-4;	Yes
HIP 39186	33.590	24.209	Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-2; (backtrack HIP 39468)(backtrack Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-1)(backtrack Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-4)(backtrack Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-1)	No
Col 285 Sector AP-F b12-4	32.157	24.231	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-2; (backtrack Col 285 Sector AP-F b12-2)	No
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-82	32.046	24.468	Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-21;	No
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-146	33.189	24.597	HR 3048;	Yes
Col 285 Sector US-H b11-5	32.569	24.684	HIP 39750;	No
Wogaiawong	32.122	24.880	Paitra;	Yes
Col 285 Sector TC-J b10-0	32.432	25.038	Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-0;	No
Col 285 Sector FV-D b13-2	33.528	25.044	Col 285 Sector BA-P c6-4; (backtrack Ross 426)	No

Good chance of Cocijo being able to deliver a lot of these Alerts internally instead if this week's Alerts go through.

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Calculating Thor
Read 112 control systems and 876 regional systems.
Total connected: 112

Furthest Control: 39.488 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
HIP 17897	28.008	22.346	Col 285 Sector TH-C b13-3;	No
Col 285 Sector SH-C b13-1	34.612	33.419	Col 285 Sector SH-C b13-0;	No
Col 285 Sector GF-G b11-5	36.829	35.769	Hyades Sector MM-M b7-1;	No
HIP 20807	37.432	33.827	Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-12;	No
Col 285 Sector KV-F b11-3	37.935	34.883	Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-16;	No
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
HIP 18513	40.473	31.156	Col 285 Sector LB-O c6-3;	No
Hyades Sector NH-M b7-3	40.195	33.636	Col 285 Sector IA-G b11-1;	No
Col 285 Sector FU-H b10-0	43.361	39.488	Col 285 Sector HP-H b10-3; (backtrack Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-15)	No

A limited number of targets for Thor this time as recent counterattacks constrain its perimeter a little.

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Calculating Raijin
Read 177 control systems and 810 regional systems.
Total connected: 177

Furthest Control: 28.748 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Koko Oh	27.066	21.106	Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-5; Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-1; Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-2; etc	Yes
Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-3	27.329	19.355	Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-0; Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-0; HIP 112595; etc	No
Pegasi Sector EB-W b2-3	27.885	19.988	Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-4 (9.926 LY); HIP 115162; Pegasi Sector EB-W b2-2; etc	No
Maribe	27.923	22.027	Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-20; Iduni; Pegasi Sector GW-W d1-115; etc	Yes
Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-1	27.979	22.274	Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-3; Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-7; Balak; etc	No
Attada	28.009	23.897	Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-2; Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d93; Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d71; etc	Yes
HIP 117762	28.015	23.198	HIP 117229;	No
Pegasi Sector HW-V b2-0	28.088	24.019	HIP 116542; Pegasi Sector FB-X c1-22; Pegasi Sector HW-V b2-1;	Yes
HIP 113698	28.090	22.038	Iduni; Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-6; Kamato;	No
Pegasi Sector XQ-J a10-0	28.109	20.888	Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-8; Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-5; Pegasi Sector YQ-J a10-0; etc	No
Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-5	28.174	22.736	Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-1; Ixbaksha; HIP 112595; etc	No
Pegasi Sector PJ-N a8-2	28.222	23.128	Pegasi Sector QE-N a8-5; HIP 112595 (10.010 LY); Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-4; etc	No
Pegasi Sector LY-O a7-1	28.280	19.893	Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-5; Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-4; Gl 886.1 B; etc	No
Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d46	28.308	26.084	Pegasi Sector FB-X c1-22;	No
Pegasi Sector JH-V c2-26	28.376	24.579	Pegasi Sector FW-W d1-110; Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-6;	No
Pegasi Sector FB-X c1-24	28.459	24.009	Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d93; Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-3; Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-0; etc	No

Raijin still working through plenty of internal targets

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Calculating Hadad
Read 33 control systems and 961 regional systems.
Total connected: 33

Furthest Control: 16.067 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-29	21.254	13.877	Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-4;	No
Col 285 Sector WN-Z b14-5	21.482	13.947	Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-14;	No
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-1	22.869	15.344	HIP 31223;	No

Hadad is very limited on usable perimeter by recaptures and cooldowns

Code:

-- Recaptures above (2 if confirmed, probability otherwise; exhausts below at exactly 1)
-- Indra
Arietis Sector IG-X b1-4:1
HIP 21179:1
HIP 19934:1
HR 1354:1
HIP 21261:1
Hyades Sector AR-J a10-0:1
HIP 21475:1
HIP 21788:1
HIP 20679:1
-- Cocijo
Col 285 Sector AF-E b13-5:1
Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-6:1
Khwal:1
Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-4:1
Hez Ur:1
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-69:1
Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-0:1
Vucumatha:1
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-115:1
-- Thor
Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-1:1
Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-1:1
Col 285 Sector SW-D b12-2:1
Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-5:1
Almar:1
Col 285 Sector NQ-F b11-3:1
Varlawoth:1
Col 285 Sector GP-H b10-3:1
Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-2:1
-- Raijin
Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-10:1
Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-0:1
Pegasi Sector LC-U b3-3:1
Chinas:1
Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-8:1
HIP 113535:1
Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-7:1
HIP 113076:1
Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-1:1
-- Hadad
Col 285 Sector VN-Z b14-0:1
Montioch:1
Omumba:1

Aleks Zuno · May 2, 2024

Time for another idea! This did not occur, even with said clearance:

Aleks Zuno said:
Given enough clearance help, I suppose a very interesting test of that is if we can remove also Col 285 Sectors RH-B b14-4 and RH-B b14-5 in addition to HR 2204. Classically that would leave only Montioch to choose Vogulu over Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-3, but if backtracks are actually attack-stealers then Montioch would steal Bi Dhorora and we would see only two Alerts total, an interesting blunder if it occurs.

Clearly Montioch was available to attack, yet did not quite follow the story crafted to explain Ixbalan last year. Present thoughts are that it seems something to do with Control systems being populated:

The preference to attack populated systems of ours is a very clear fact which has survived a lot of scepticism, and ought to be a massive clue!
M. Taranis week 41 behaved exactly as if Ixbalan scanned 10 Ly and ended looking at Hyades Sector PN-T c3-8, but Hyades Sectors DQ-O b6-3 and GW-W d1-99 use that scan first to attack Hyades Sectors PN-T c3-5 and PN-T c3-7, depleting both remaining attacks.
M. Hadad week 74 behaved not as if the empty Col 285 Sector VN-Z b14-0 scanned and allowed Montioch to steal Bi Dhorora, but as if the populated Montioch scanned first and ended on Vogulu but revealed Bi Dhorora for Col 285 Sector VN-Z b14-0 to attack, which clearly it did given Omumba attacking Fotlandjera.

Now I wonder—if the scan-and-strike story is anywhere near reality, the notion that populated Control systems are always ready to scan would explain much why outer attacks target them ahead of empty systems! Perhaps:

The Titan can see always every system within its Control sphere.
Populated Control systems provide extra 10 Ly vision spheres beyond that with no budget impact, with targets presumably being chosen first.
- Due to which the Thargoids aim to acquire systems with vision over systems without.
For the price of one attack, the Titan can send an Orthrus fleet to visit its empty Control systems instead, to provide extra vision that week.

If the availability of humans is linked to the ability to target nearby systems, perhaps storing many in a Titan is part of how it can see its full Control radius. As with any idea, so much already works so well now that it has a high chance of causing too many problems elsewhere!

Ian Doncaster · May 2, 2024

Aleks Zuno said:
M. Taranis week 41 behaved exactly as if Ixbalan scanned 10 Ly and ended looking at Hyades Sector PN-T c3-8, but Hyades Sectors DQ-O b6-3 and GW-W d1-99 use that scan first to attack Hyades Sectors PN-T c3-5 and PN-T c3-7, depleting both remaining attacks.

For Ixbalan in the week beginning 26 October it still attacked PN-T c3-5 despite DQ-O and GW-W having been recaptured the previous week, which suggests that whatever its reason for not attacking PN-T c3-8 it didn't depend on whether those other two systems were available for use.

Aleks Zuno said:
As with any idea, so much already works so well now that it has a high chance of causing too many problems elsewhere!

We also haven't really had a "nearer than furthest possible" case come up at all for quite a while - for all the recent prediction failures the real attack has gone somewhere else entirely. Most of our previous examples were at Taranis, Leigong and Oya so can't be repeated, and the only other two on my list are buried under a large pile of Cocijo controls so won't be up for a re-test any time soon. With the number of external attacks that Indra and Cocijo especially have been putting out through multiple-option systems I'm surprised not to have seen more misses on the predictions.

Aleks Zuno · May 2, 2024

Ian Doncaster said:
For Ixbalan in the week beginning 26 October it still attacked PN-T c3-5 despite DQ-O and GW-W having been recaptured the previous week, which suggests that whatever its reason for not attacking PN-T c3-8 it didn't depend on whether those other two systems were available for use.

Weeks 47 and 48—so it did! That makes a case for abandoning the notion of scanning but focusing on the notions of radius and populated systems; one wonders now whether it has to do with Hyades Sector PN-T c3-5 being chosen first because it would bring the farther Lovaroju within outer reach, as opposed to Hyades Sector PN-T c3-8 bringing the nearer Senocidi within inner reach.

It was a bit different in week 41 with Senocidi also being within the Control sphere at the time, but that may have made no difference given that any attacks already would have needed to be outer. For lack of radius-increasing populated systems within one 10 Ly jump, one wonders now whether they consider first that Lovaroju at 26.93 Ly is the best two-jump target, and attack the system forming the first jump!

Additional: Speaking of M. Cocijo, the week 49 prediction called for Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-6 by its distance but Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-1 was attacked instead; notably the missed system can see no populated systems, whereas the attacked system can see Paitra. Ironically there were several other Control systems which could have attacked Paitra regardless, but with the limitation of using nearer Control systems first, the predicted system would get nowhere populated versus the attacked system being one jump from Paitra.

Additional additional: Even more interestingly, a populated target example does the same thing! In M. Oya week 48 we saw HIP 8525 choose HIP 2422 rather than the farther Poqomathi—again, Poqomathi can see only empty systems, whereas HIP 2422 can see HIP 7338, Muncheim and the quite far Bhotepa.

DemiserofD · May 5, 2024

I tested the value of Thargoid Bio-Storage Capsules. They're currently worth 0.2x a sample each, and apply to all inhabited counterstrikes.

Hadad currently has 3x inhabited counterstrikes, so each pod is worth 3/5ths a tissue sample. Not quite as good as sampling, but a whole lot more fun. Next week will be a valid opportunity to participate this way, as all three will be in spire range at that point.

Indra, I believe, currently has NINE. That means that pods there are worth 9/5ths a tissue sample, assuming we could finish all 9. Not an urgent priority, but it could be a good way to approach the Titan.

I don't seem to be seeing many uninhabited counterstrikes at present, so that may have been rebalanced at some point.

Aleks Zuno · May 5, 2024

DemiserofD said:
Hadad currently has 3x inhabited counterstrikes, so each pod is worth 3/5ths a tissue sample. Not quite as good as sampling, but a whole lot more fun. Next week will be a valid opportunity to participate this way, as all three will be in spire range at that point.

I love the idea, although I would note that the three-fifths is distributed a bit unevenly! The remaining Research strengths being 3193, 4192 and 4530, I suppose that would drop to two-fifths after 15965 Titan rescues. Still, if Commanders declare any stored Titan rescues on their Carriers, I will make a special point of tracking those as part of the delivery!

DemiserofD said:
Indra, I believe, currently has NINE. That means that pods there are worth 9/5ths a tissue sample, assuming we could finish all 9. Not an urgent priority, but it could be a good way to approach the Titan.

Clearing M. Indra will need something special which is unlikely to align with Titan rescues; it needs a massive purge which pushes it down to four peripheries in a single week, which will limit its superior ability to attack back. It would be most impressive if Titan rescues actually help during purge week!

Research payloads for its weaker systems are already being collected for this by local squadrons; the hope is to turn attention there after T. Hadad, likely with private Carriers for the middle-strength systems and open orders for the stronger.

DemiserofD said:
I don't seem to be seeing many uninhabited counterstrikes at present, so that may have been rebalanced at some point.

I think those always were a mistake—the version of events in my mind is that empty Counterstrike systems went unnoticed for months because Counterstrike did not actually do anything other than brightening a bit the Thargoid War system colour, then ultimately they were fixed via removal after the Matrix system gaffe where several Matrix systems were cleared that way in the ~10 days after Extraction missiles were available but before becoming Spire sites. There was a brief ~2 weeks where Titan rescues gave peripheral progress, presumably as an easy way to prevent non-peripheral Counterstrike Spire sites from being completed.

Interestingly a quick look at the Galaxy map seems that only Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-3, a Matrix system, seems to be an empty Counterstrike.

Ian Doncaster · May 9, 2024

Prediction updates based on recaptures:

no change at Indra
an Alert sweep at Cocijo means it doesn't get to extend its perimeter, so the mostly-external original prediction should go through
Thor loses a couple of attacks

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
HIP 17897	28.008	22.346	Col 285 Sector TH-C b13-3;	No
HIP 20807	37.432	33.827	Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-12;	No
Col 285 Sector KV-F b11-3	37.935	34.883	Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-16;	No
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
HIP 18513	40.473	31.156	Col 285 Sector LB-O c6-3;	No
Hyades Sector NH-M b7-3	40.195	33.636	Col 285 Sector IA-G b11-1;	No
Col 285 Sector FU-H b10-0	43.361	39.488	Col 285 Sector HP-H b10-3; (backtrack Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-15)	No

no change at Raijin
Hadad loses all its attacks

Aleks Zuno · May 9, 2024

M. Indra appears to have sustained some confusion from the unintended events last week! I think some attacking out-of-turn has occurred, including at HIP 20527 which appears to be an Alert system despite not being yellow on the Galaxy map, perhaps as a result of corrections affecting respite intervals.

Ian Doncaster · May 9, 2024

Four at Indra, I think, and then BA-P c6-3 also attacked when it should have been in cooldown at Cocijo. Doesn't seem to be a general change in cooldown rules, at least, since the other three look normal.

Ian Doncaster · May 9, 2024

Narwhal Nose report generated 9 May

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Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first six would be expected to be hit by Alerts. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them. If the Control Sphere Edge is reached and targeting mode switches, predictive confidence is lower and the consequences of recaptures may be more significant.

Table key
Target: Name of system considered at threat of Alert. Bold if in Control-based prioritisation it would be eligible for backtrack targeting.
Target Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the target. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation.
Control Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the attacking Control. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation when attacking outside the control sphere.
Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through; controls containing a Spire are bold. Once targeting switches to Control-based rather than Target-based prioritisation, only one is listed here.
Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.

Assuming that the short cooldowns were just a one-off due to the rollback. Best guesses at which systems carried out the attacks, so Indra and maybe Cocijo predictions might be a bit shakier than normal.

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Calculating Indra
Read 116 control systems and 866 regional systems.
Total connected: 116

Furthest Control: 26.135 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Kagutsuchi	22.496	20.115	Arietis Sector LM-V b2-3; Arietis Sector NH-V b2-0;	Yes
HIP 22566	24.386	22.610	Hyades Sector ON-S b4-6;	Yes
HIP 19757	24.520	17.955	HIP 20419; Scythia; Hyades Sector TO-Q b5-2; etc	Yes
65 Kappa Tauri	25.424	19.729	Arietis Sector JR-V b2-4; HIP 20890; Arietis Sector JR-V b2-1; etc	Yes
Hyades Sector IH-U b3-3	26.020	18.372	Hyades Sector NN-S b4-1; Hyades Sector NN-S b4-0; Hyades Sector JH-U b3-5;	No
68 Tauri	26.123	17.806	HIP 20577; HR 1354; HIP 20679; etc	No
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Arietis Sector JR-V b2-2	26.286	16.450	HIP 20480 (9.966 LY);	No
HIP 21099	26.811	17.871	HIP 20679;	No
Hyades Sector JH-U b3-4	27.169	17.960	Hyades Sector NN-S b4-2;	No
HIP 21474	27.124	18.734	86 Rho Tauri; (backtrack HIP 21654)(backtrack 90 c1 Tauri)	Yes
Hyades Sector CR-J a10-1	27.273	18.885	Hyades Sector NN-S b4-3;	No
HIP 20719	27.717	18.976	Hyadum II; (backtrack HIP 20605)	Yes
90 c1 Tauri	26.476	19.444	79 b Tauri; (backtrack HIP 20826)	No
Hyades Sector PI-S b4-0	26.751	19.514	Hyades Sector PI-S b4-3 (9.900 LY);	No
Hyades Sector GX-H a11-4	29.433	20.093	HIP 22524; (backtrack HIP 23069)	No
Hyades Sector XU-O b6-1	29.811	20.227	Scythia (9.915 LY); (backtrack Arietis Sector QS-T b3-2)	No

No early backtracks so Indra may be limited to 8 Alerts this time.

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Calculating Cocijo
Read 184 control systems and 805 regional systems.
Total connected: 184

Furthest Control: 29.492 LY
Furthest potential capture: 31.821 LY - may affect result if not defended

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Asletae	28.536	20.899	Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-0; Khwal; Picenile; etc	Yes
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
HIP 39186	33.590	24.209	Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-2; (backtrack HIP 39468)(backtrack Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-1)(backtrack Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-4)(backtrack Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-1)	No
Col 285 Sector AP-F b12-4	32.157	24.231	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-2; (backtrack Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-5)(backtrack Col 285 Sector AP-F b12-2)	No
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-82	32.046	24.468	Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-21;	No
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-146	33.189	24.597	HR 3048; (backtrack Col 285 Sector CA-E b13-2)	Yes
Col 285 Sector US-H b11-5	32.569	24.684	HIP 39750;	No
Wogaiawong	32.122	24.880	Paitra;	Yes
Col 285 Sector TC-J b10-0	32.432	25.038	Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-0;	No
Col 285 Sector FV-D b13-2	33.528	25.044	Col 285 Sector BA-P c6-4; (backtrack Ross 426)	No
Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-47	33.530	25.105	Desurinbin; (backtrack Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-94)	No
Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-1	30.635	25.126	Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-3;	No
Col 285 Sector US-H b11-1	30.117	25.141	Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-1;	No
Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-51	32.487	25.235	Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-6;	No
Col 285 Sector ZJ-E b13-2	34.220	25.325	Col 285 Sector XY-F b12-1;	No
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-1	31.586	25.367	Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-4;	No
Col 285 Sector AP-F b12-2	30.067	25.867	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-0;	No

Mostly external attacks expected at the moment but there's the possibility of switching to all-internal if at least some of this week's Alerts go through. Early backtrack placements should mean a full Alert budget use either way.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Thor
Read 110 control systems and 881 regional systems.
Total connected: 110

Furthest Control: 39.488 LY
Furthest potential capture: 43.361 LY - may affect result if not defended

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Theemim	30.148	22.217	Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-4; Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-3; Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-3; etc	Yes
Synuefe OU-D b45-3	30.565	25.824	Col 285 Sector SW-D b12-2;	No
HIP 20509	30.900	28.684	HIP 20489;	Yes
Col 285 Sector QX-U d2-47	33.316	32.800	Col 285 Sector NQ-F b11-3;	No
Col 285 Sector KB-O c6-10	34.382	29.231	Varlawoth;	No
Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-15	35.033	28.185	Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-14;	No
Col 285 Sector WC-C b13-2	35.479	31.792	Col 285 Sector LB-O c6-1;	No
Auaker	35.539	35.161	Col 285 Sector LL-E b12-3;	Yes
Col 285 Sector HL-O c6-14	35.749	31.784	Almar;	No
Col 285 Sector MQ-F b11-3	36.005	28.412	Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-1;	No
Col 285 Sector GF-G b11-5	36.829	32.455	Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-2;	No
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-

Thor cycles back round to a slightly bigger part of its perimeter, expecting to use all alerts internally even if the border does push outwards.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Raijin
Read 177 control systems and 805 regional systems.
Total connected: 177

Furthest Control: 28.748 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Vistnero	21.009	19.034	Pegasi Sector QE-N a8-1; Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-9; Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-8 (9.976 LY); etc	Yes
Nibelaako	22.263	16.841	Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-0; HIP 115162; Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-6; etc	Yes
HIP 117177	24.758	21.188	Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-6; Kuruma;	Yes
Pegasi Sector ON-S b4-2	27.462	21.135	Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-4; HIP 113076;	No
Pegasi Sector XQ-J a10-0	28.109	19.747	Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-7; Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-8; Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-5; etc	No
Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-5	28.174	22.736	Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-1; Ixbaksha; HIP 112595; etc	No
Pegasi Sector PJ-N a8-2	28.222	23.128	Pegasi Sector QE-N a8-5; HIP 112595 (10.010 LY); Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-4; etc	No
Pegasi Sector LY-O a7-1	28.280	19.893	Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-5; Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-4; Gl 886.1 B; etc	No
Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d46	28.308	26.084	Pegasi Sector FB-X c1-22;	No
Pegasi Sector JH-V c2-26	28.376	24.579	Pegasi Sector FW-W d1-110; Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-6;	No
Pegasi Sector FB-X c1-24	28.459	24.009	Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d93; Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-3; Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-0; etc	No
Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-4	28.505	22.843	Pegasi Sector ZQ-J a10-0; Pegasi Sector ZQ-J a10-1; Ixbaksha; etc	No
Pegasi Sector GW-W d1-92	28.545	22.514	Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-7; Balak;	No
Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-6	28.551	23.024	Balak;	No
Pegasi Sector LN-S b4-0	28.571	20.148	Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-2; Pegasi Sector FW-W d1-104;	No
Kissi	28.574	21.584	Chakma; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-2; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-0; etc	Yes

Raijin has plenty of internal targets.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Hadad
Read 22 control systems and 976 regional systems.
Total connected: 22

Furthest Control: 14.349 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Muruidooges	18.367	9.378	Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-2 (9.934 LY);	Yes
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-31	20.046	11.724	Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-7;	No
Col 285 Sector JW-M c7-10	17.369	12.113	Col 285 Sector PM-B b14-0;	No
HIP 29596	18.225	13.345	Montioch; (backtrack Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-2)(backtrack Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-3)	Yes
Vasupari	18.036	14.349	HIP 30502; (backtrack Col 285 Sector PM-B b14-4)	Yes

Hadad's perimeter cooldown is starting to wear off, though if the expected Spire-based pushback happens it will need to do something anomalous to get more than one Alert

Code:

-- Recaptures above (2 if confirmed, probability otherwise; exhausts below at exactly 1)
-- Indra
71 Tauri:1
HIP 20916:1
HIP 20712:1
Arietis Sector TY-P a6-0:1
Arietis Sector OS-R a5-0:1
-- presumed attacker for FB-X c1-17
Hyades Sector JH-V c2-13:1
-- presumed attacker for 80 Tauri
HIP 20916:1
-- presumed attacker for FL-X b1-1
Arietis Sector FL-X b1-0:1
-- presumed attacker for HIP 20527
Hyadum I:1
-- Cocijo
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-7:1
Col 285 Sector WN-H b11-5:1
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-0:1
Col 285 Sector XY-F b12-6:1
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-0:1
Col 285 Sector US-H b11-2:1
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-1:1
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-4:1
-- presumed attacker for BA-P c6-3
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-6:1
-- Thor
Col 285 Sector TH-C b13-3:1
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-12:1
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-16:1
Col 285 Sector LB-O c6-3:1
Col 285 Sector IA-G b11-1:1
Col 285 Sector HP-H b10-3:1
-- Raijin
Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-5:1
Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-0:1
Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-4:1
Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-20:1
Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-3:1
Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-2:1
HIP 117229:1
HIP 116542:1
Iduni:1
-- Hadad

Ian Doncaster · May 16, 2024

Indra's perimeter changes to make more attacks external

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Kagutsuchi	22.496	20.115	Arietis Sector LM-V b2-3; Arietis Sector NH-V b2-0;	Yes
HIP 22566	24.386	22.610	Hyades Sector ON-S b4-6;	Yes
HIP 19757	24.520	17.955	HIP 20419; Scythia; Hyades Sector TO-Q b5-2;	Yes
65 Kappa Tauri	25.424	19.729	Arietis Sector JR-V b2-4; HIP 20890; Arietis Sector JR-V b2-1; etc	Yes
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Arietis Sector JR-V b2-2	26.286	16.450	HIP 20480 (9.966 LY);	No
HIP 20719	27.717	17.806	HIP 20577 (9.953 LY); (backtrack 68 Tauri)(backtrack HIP 20605)	Yes
68 Tauri	26.123	17.820	HR 1354;	No
HIP 21099	26.811	17.871	HIP 20679;	No
Hyades Sector JH-U b3-4	27.169	17.960	Hyades Sector NN-S b4-2;	No
Hyades Sector IH-U b3-3	26.020	18.372	Hyades Sector NN-S b4-1;	No
HIP 21474	27.124	18.734	86 Rho Tauri; (backtrack HIP 21654)(backtrack 90 c1 Tauri)	Yes
Hyades Sector CR-J a10-1	27.273	18.885	Hyades Sector NN-S b4-3;	No
HIP 20605	26.362	18.976	Hyadum II;	No
HIP 20826	27.682	19.444	79 b Tauri;	Yes
Hyades Sector PI-S b4-0	26.751	19.514	Hyades Sector PI-S b4-3 (9.900 LY);	No
Hyades Sector GX-H a11-4	29.433	20.093	HIP 22524; (backtrack HIP 23069)	No

Early backtrack to 68 Tauri so should use the full budget

Adjustments at Cocijo due to recaptures and Alert defences

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Asletae	28.536	21.530	Khwal;	Yes
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
HIP 39186	33.590	24.209	Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-2; (backtrack HIP 39468)(backtrack Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-1)(backtrack Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-4)(backtrack Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-1)	No
Col 285 Sector AP-F b12-4	32.157	24.231	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-2; (backtrack Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-5)(backtrack Col 285 Sector AP-F b12-2)	No
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-82	32.046	24.468	Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-21;	No
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-146	33.189	24.597	HR 3048; (backtrack Col 285 Sector CA-E b13-2)	Yes
Col 285 Sector US-H b11-5	32.569	24.684	HIP 39750;	No
Wogaiawong	32.122	24.880	Paitra;	Yes
Col 285 Sector TC-J b10-0	32.432	25.038	Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-0;	No
Col 285 Sector FV-D b13-2	33.528	25.044	Col 285 Sector BA-P c6-4; (backtrack Ross 426)	No
Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-47	33.530	25.105	Desurinbin; (backtrack Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-94)	No
Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-1	30.635	25.126	Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-3;	No
Col 285 Sector US-H b11-1	30.117	25.141	Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-1;	No
Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-51	32.487	25.235	Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-6;	No
Col 285 Sector ZJ-E b13-2	34.220	25.325	Col 285 Sector XY-F b12-1;	No
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-1	31.586	25.367	Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-4;	No
Col 285 Sector AP-F b12-2	30.067	25.867	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-0;	No

Note that the first usable backtrack is some distance out, so it's unlikely to be the top 9

Minor changes at Thor

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Theemim	30.148	22.217	Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-4; Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-3; Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-3;	Yes
Synuefe OU-D b45-3	30.565	25.824	Col 285 Sector SW-D b12-2;	No
HIP 20509	30.900	28.684	HIP 20489;	Yes
Col 285 Sector KB-O c6-10	34.382	29.231	Varlawoth;	No
Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-15	35.033	28.185	Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-14;	No
Col 285 Sector WC-C b13-2	35.479	31.792	Col 285 Sector LB-O c6-1;	No
Col 285 Sector HL-O c6-14	35.749	31.784	Almar;	No
Col 285 Sector MQ-F b11-3	36.005	28.412	Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-1;	No
Col 285 Sector GF-G b11-5	36.829	32.455	Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-2;	No
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-

Raijin prediction is not affected

Hadad of course down to just the attack on Muruidooges

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Muruidooges	18.367	9.378	Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-2 (9.934 LY);	Yes

If it is going to throw in a surprise, now's the time

Ian Doncaster · May 16, 2024

Indra: HIP 20577 doesn't attack HIP 20719, which means there's no backtracks available in the first eight. Might be leftover "which system is offline" errors from Indra's earlier resets of cooldowns with the 18.04 rollback.

Cocijo: the backtrack went to HIP 39468 - this looks like it could be AU-F b12-3 attacking, but picking the slightly nearer HIP 39648 over the expected AU-F b12-1.

Raijin: FB-X c1-22 doesn't attack, so JH-V c2-26 gets attacked instead of BQ-Y d46. Could also be leftover errors from the rollback at this stage.

Thor and Hadad as expected.

Ian Doncaster · May 16, 2024

Narwhal Nose report generated 16 May

-------------------------------------------

Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first nine would be expected to be hit by Alerts. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them. If the Control Sphere Edge is reached and targeting mode switches, predictive confidence is lower and the consequences of recaptures may be more significant.

Table key
Target: Name of system considered at threat of Alert. Bold if in Control-based prioritisation it would be eligible for backtrack targeting.
Target Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the target. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation.
Control Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the attacking Control. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation when attacking outside the control sphere.
Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through; controls containing a Spire are bold. Once targeting switches to Control-based rather than Target-based prioritisation, only one is listed here.
Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.

Hopefully that's all the oddities from the rollback shaken out, but given the size and connectivity of most of the remainder it might be throwing out the occasional unexpected attack for a while yet.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Indra
Read 115 control systems and 872 regional systems.
Total connected: 115

Furthest Control: 25.900 LY
Furthest potential capture: 27.169 LY - may affect result if not defended

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Obamumbo	18.655	14.788	HIP 19263; Gaezatorix (9.996 LY); Arietis Sector MM-V b2-1; etc	Yes
HIP 20616	22.168	18.494	HIP 20397; 86 Rho Tauri (9.902 LY); 79 b Tauri; etc	Yes
HIP 20948	23.542	17.089	HIP 20916; HIP 20577; Hyadum II; etc	Yes
HIP 19781	25.570	20.963	70 Tauri; HIP 20815; HR 1358; etc	Yes
HIP 20019	25.583	17.806	HIP 20577; Hyadum II; 77 Theta-1 Tauri; etc	Yes
Hyades Sector ST-Q b5-4	25.800	18.885	Hyades Sector NN-S b4-3; HIP 22524; Hyades Sector ST-Q b5-5; etc	Yes
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Hyades Sector IH-U b3-3	26.020	18.372	Hyades Sector NN-S b4-1;	No
HIP 21380	26.610	18.554	HIP 20712; (backtrack 69 Upsilon Tauri)	Yes
HIP 21474	27.124	18.734	86 Rho Tauri; (backtrack HIP 21654)(backtrack 90 c1 Tauri)	Yes
HIP 20719	27.717	18.976	Hyadum II; (backtrack HIP 20605)	Yes
90 c1 Tauri	26.476	19.444	79 b Tauri; (backtrack HIP 20826)	No
Hyades Sector PI-S b4-0	26.751	19.514	Hyades Sector PI-S b4-3 (9.900 LY);	No
Hyades Sector GX-H a11-4	29.433	20.093	HIP 22524; (backtrack HIP 23069)(backtrack Hyades Sector CR-J a10-1)	No
Hyades Sector XU-O b6-1	29.811	20.227	Scythia (9.915 LY); (backtrack Arietis Sector QS-T b3-2)	No
Ain	28.634	20.241	HIP 21261 (10.025 LY);	No
91 Sigma-1 Tauri	29.419	20.629	77 Theta-1 Tauri; (backtrack HIP 20850)(backtrack 57 h Tauri)(backtrack HIP 21317)(backtrack 89 Tauri)(backtrack 85 Tauri)(backtrack 81 Tauri)(backtrack 83 Tauri)	Yes

Indra very much back into "the reward for beating Invasions is more Invasions" sort of structure now. Could switch to internal if some of this week's uninhabited Alerts go through, but if not it has a usable backtrack.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Cocijo
Read 177 control systems and 811 regional systems.
Total connected: 177

Furthest Control: 29.235 LY
Furthest potential capture: 33.590 LY - may affect result if not defended

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Col 285 Sector AF-E b13-3	27.875	26.491	Col 285 Sector AF-E b13-5;	No
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Col 285 Sector PM-J b10-3	29.712	20.772	Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-6;	No
Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-1	30.453	21.832	Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-4; (backtrack Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-76)	No
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-18	29.970	22.001	Hez Ur;	No
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-68	31.281	22.723	Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-69;	No
Col 285 Sector PS-T d3-152	29.517	22.820	Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-0;	No
Laumas	29.269	23.090	Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-0;	Yes
Col 285 Sector VY-F b12-1	32.062	23.098	Vucumatha;	No
Col 285 Sector VD-G b12-5	29.766	23.150	Col 285 Sector XY-F b12-6;	No
Col 285 Sector VY-F b12-3	31.160	23.548	Canaharvas (9.960 LY);	No
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-6	30.355	23.772	Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-0;	No
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-5	29.605	23.878	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-7;	No
Col 285 Sector CA-E b13-2	31.711	24.157	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-1;	No
Col 285 Sector FV-D b13-2	33.528	25.044	Col 285 Sector BA-P c6-4; (backtrack Ross 426)	No
Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-47	33.530	25.105	Desurinbin; (backtrack Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-94)	No
Col 285 Sector US-H b11-1	30.117	25.141	Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-1;	No

Cocijo doesn't have a lot of early backtrack options, so might be kept to 8 Alerts next week - although if some of this week's Alerts go through it'll be attacking internally anyway.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Thor
Read 109 control systems and 881 regional systems.
Total connected: 109

Furthest Control: 39.488 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Unktety	25.357	17.094	HIP 19198;	Yes
Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-0	30.239	28.863	Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-2; HIP 17310;	No
Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-13	31.072	24.842	Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-5;	No
Col 285 Sector KV-F b11-2	33.525	34.883	Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-16;	No
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-17	35.486	33.827	Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-12;	No
Col 285 Sector IA-G b11-0	36.367	33.636	Col 285 Sector IA-G b11-1;	No
Col 285 Sector GP-H b10-2	36.906	36.254	Col 285 Sector GP-H b10-3;	No
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-15	42.885	39.488	Col 285 Sector HP-H b10-3;	No

A limited perimeter for Thor but it has the budget to use all of it.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Raijin
Read 176 control systems and 807 regional systems.
Total connected: 176

Furthest Control: 28.748 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Isla	23.900	18.935	Pegasi Sector LC-U b3-2 (9.952 LY); HIP 116542; HIP 116052; etc	Yes
Bormuninus	24.356	20.148	Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-2; Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-0; Pegasi Sector UF-L a9-0; etc	Yes
Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d46	28.308	26.084	Pegasi Sector FB-X c1-22;	No
Pegasi Sector FB-X c1-24	28.459	23.897	Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-2; Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d93; Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-3; etc	No
Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-4	28.505	22.843	Pegasi Sector ZQ-J a10-0; Pegasi Sector ZQ-J a10-1; Ixbaksha; etc	No
Pegasi Sector GW-W d1-92	28.545	22.274	Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-3; Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-7; Balak;	No
Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-6	28.551	22.514	Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-7; Balak;	No
Pegasi Sector LN-S b4-0	28.571	27.209	Pegasi Sector FW-W d1-104;	No
Kissi	28.574	21.584	Chakma; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-2; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-0; etc	Yes
HIP 116744	28.615	24.019	HIP 116542;	No
Pegasi Sector LY-O a7-4	28.626	21.116	Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-4; Iceniguari; Gl 886.1 B; etc	No
Pegasi Sector TK-L a9-4	28.644	21.357	Pegasi Sector TK-L a9-2; Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-3; Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-2; etc	No
Pegasi Sector LY-O a7-2	28.672	24.618	Gl 886.1 B; Pegasi Sector LY-O a7-5; Pegasi Sector LY-O a7-3; etc	No
Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-4	28.704	21.106	Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-5; Pegasi Sector QE-N a8-0; Iceniguari; etc	No
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Pegasi Sector OY-O a7-2	28.793	19.751	Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-9;	No
Pegasi Sector SE-N a8-1	29.213	20.342	Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-8;	No

Another internal week at Raijin.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Hadad
Read 11 control systems and 984 regional systems.
Total connected: 9
Disconnected Controls

System	Distance
Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-2	9.378176545
Col 285 Sector VN-Z b14-0	9.685433247

Furthest Control: 11.207 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Bi Dhorora	18.466	9.685	Col 285 Sector VN-Z b14-0;	Yes
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-0	18.841	10.064	Col 285 Sector US-Z b14-7;	No
Col 285 Sector US-Z b14-0	18.216	10.780	Col 285 Sector US-Z b14-3;	No

Hadad is definitely running out of options now.

Code:

-- Recaptures above (2 if confirmed, probability otherwise; exhausts below at exactly 1)
-- Indra
Arietis Sector LM-V b2-3:1
Hyades Sector ON-S b4-6:1
HIP 20419:1
Arietis Sector JR-V b2-4:1
HIP 20480:1
HR 1354:1
HIP 20679:1
Hyades Sector NN-S b4-2:1
-- Cocijo
Khwal:1
Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-2:1
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-2:1
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-21:1
HR 3048:1
HIP 39750:1
Paitra:1
Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-0:1
Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-3:1
-- Thor
Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-4:1
Col 285 Sector SW-D b12-2:1
HIP 20489:1
Varlawoth:1
Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-14:1
Col 285 Sector LB-O c6-1:1
Almar:1
Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-1:1
Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-2:1
-- Raijin
Pegasi Sector QE-N a8-1:1
Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-0:1
Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-6:1
Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-4:1
Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-7:1
Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-1:1
Pegasi Sector QE-N a8-5:1
Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-5:1
Pegasi Sector FW-W d1-110:1
-- Hadad
Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-2:1

Ian Doncaster · May 23, 2024

Quite a few updates to the predictions this time

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Obamumbo	18.655	14.788	HIP 19263; Gaezatorix (9.996 LY); Arietis Sector MM-V b2-1; etc	Yes
HIP 20616	22.168	18.494	HIP 20397; 86 Rho Tauri (9.902 LY); 79 b Tauri; etc	Yes
HIP 20948	23.542	17.089	HIP 20916; HIP 20577; Hyadum II; etc	Yes
HIP 19781	25.570	20.963	70 Tauri; HIP 20815; HR 1358; etc	Yes
HIP 20019	25.583	17.806	HIP 20577; Hyadum II; 77 Theta-1 Tauri; etc	Yes
Hyades Sector ST-Q b5-4	25.800	18.885	Hyades Sector NN-S b4-3; HIP 22524; Hyades Sector ST-Q b5-5; etc	Yes
Arietis Sector NS-R a5-1	26.006	23.327	Arietis Sector OS-R a5-0;	No
Hyades Sector IH-U b3-3	26.020	18.372	Hyades Sector NN-S b4-1; Hyades Sector NN-S b4-0;	No
Arietis Sector KM-T a4-1	26.206	24.693	HIP 21788; Arietis Sector KM-T a4-0; Arietis Sector KM-T a4-2;	No
HIP 23069	26.339	20.093	HIP 22524; Hyades Sector ST-Q b5-5; HIP 22688; etc	No
HIP 20605	26.362	18.976	Hyadum II; 77 Theta-1 Tauri; HIP 20815; etc	No
HIP 21654	26.426	18.734	86 Rho Tauri; 77 Theta-1 Tauri; HIP 20815; etc	No
69 Upsilon Tauri	26.471	18.554	HIP 20712; HIP 20890; Arietis Sector JR-V b2-1; etc	Yes
90 c1 Tauri	26.476	19.444	79 b Tauri; 92 Sigma-2 Tauri; HIP 22203;	No
Hyades Sector AR-J a10-1	26.541	21.108	Lei Hsini; HIP 22350; Hyades Sector AR-J a10-0;	No
Arietis Sector DQ-Y c18	26.589	22.469	Arietis Sector HG-X b1-3; Arietis Sector HG-X b1-4; Arietis Sector DQ-Y c9; etc	Yes

Indra gets an outer Alert through to go all-internal this week.

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Col 285 Sector AF-E b13-3	27.875	26.491	Col 285 Sector AF-E b13-5;	No
Laumas	29.269	23.090	Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-0; Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-3; Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-2; etc	Yes
Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-25	29.283	27.816	Col 285 Sector WN-H b11-5;	No
HIP 37520	29.500	26.660	Col 285 Sector RS-H b11-6; Col 285 Sector WT-Q c5-22;	Yes
Col 285 Sector PS-T d3-152	29.517	22.820	Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-0; Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-4; Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-17; etc	No
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-76	29.600	21.832	Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-4; Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-115; Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-8; etc	No
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-5	29.605	23.878	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-7; Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-1; Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-102;	No
Col 285 Sector PM-J b10-3	29.712	20.772	Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-6; Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-2; Col 285 Sector PM-J b10-4;	No
Col 285 Sector VD-G b12-5	29.766	23.150	Col 285 Sector XY-F b12-6; Col 285 Sector VD-G b12-1;	No
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-18	29.970	22.001	Hez Ur; Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-17;	No
Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-23	30.011	28.202	Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-22;	No
Col 285 Sector AP-F b12-2	30.067	25.867	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-0;	No
Col 285 Sector US-H b11-1	30.117	25.141	Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-1; Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-12; Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-10;	No
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-6	30.355	23.772	Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-0; Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-17; Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-3;	No
Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-1	30.453	27.061	Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-8;	No
Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-1	30.635	25.367	Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-4; Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-116 (10.010 LY);	No

Cocijo does the same

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Unktety	25.357	17.094	HIP 19198;	Yes
Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-0	30.239	28.863	Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-2; HIP 17310;	No
Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-13	31.072	24.842	Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-5;	No
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-15	42.885	39.488	Col 285 Sector HP-H b10-3;	No

Thor, meanwhile, gets pushed back a lot and loses most of its Alert capacity.

No change expected at Raijin.

Hadad is probably small enough to place an emergency Alert itself, but doesn't have targets. No normal Alerts should occur there.

Ian Doncaster · May 23, 2024

Narwhal Nose report generated 23 May

-------------------------------------------

Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first nine would be expected to be hit by Alerts. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them. If the Control Sphere Edge is reached and targeting mode switches, predictive confidence is lower and the consequences of recaptures may be more significant.

Table key
Target: Name of system considered at threat of Alert. Bold if in Control-based prioritisation it would be eligible for backtrack targeting.
Target Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the target. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation.
Control Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the attacking Control. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation when attacking outside the control sphere.
Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through; controls containing a Spire are bold. Once targeting switches to Control-based rather than Target-based prioritisation, only one is listed here.
Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.

All predictions correct last week, so we may have got over the anomalies from U18.04's rollback. Hadad's destruction looks inevitable, so no prediction for that - not that it will be able to place any conventional Alerts even if it survives the week. The changes announced for U18.06 don't appear to include anything that will affect the prediction methods, just the system lists.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Indra
Read 117 control systems and 867 regional systems.
Total connected: 117

Furthest Control: 27.169 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
HIP 21918	22.272	16.600	HIP 21179; HIP 21475; Ross 378; etc	Yes
HIP 20491	23.341	15.974	HIP 19934 (10.022 LY); HIP 20480; HIP 20712; etc	Yes
HIP 20056	23.677	17.820	HR 1354; HIP 20679; Hyadum II; etc	Yes
HIP 20492	24.043	15.082	71 Tauri; 86 Rho Tauri; Hyadum II; etc	Yes
HIP 21946	24.111	20.241	HIP 21261; 92 Sigma-2 Tauri; HIP 20890; etc	Yes
78 Theta-2 Tauri	24.568	17.871	HIP 20679; 86 Rho Tauri; Hyadum II; etc	No
Arietis Sector FL-X b1-1	25.610	23.431	Arietis Sector FL-X b1-0; HIP 19789 (9.928 LY);	No
80 Tauri	25.670	18.734	86 Rho Tauri; Hyadum II; 77 Theta-1 Tauri; etc	No
Hyades Sector FB-X c1-17	25.780	18.594	Hyades Sector JH-V c2-13; Hyades Sector PI-S b4-2; Hyades Sector LC-U b3-4;	No
Arietis Sector JM-T a4-0	25.940	25.077	Arietis Sector KM-T a4-0; Arietis Sector KM-T a4-2;	No
HIP 23069	26.339	20.093	HIP 22524; Hyades Sector ST-Q b5-5; HIP 22688; etc	No
HIP 20605	26.362	18.976	Hyadum II; 77 Theta-1 Tauri; HIP 20815; etc	No
HIP 21654	26.426	20.629	77 Theta-1 Tauri; HIP 20815; 92 Sigma-2 Tauri; etc	No
69 Upsilon Tauri	26.471	18.554	HIP 20712; Arietis Sector JR-V b2-4; HIP 20890; etc	Yes
90 c1 Tauri	26.476	19.444	79 b Tauri; 92 Sigma-2 Tauri; HIP 22203;	No
Hyades Sector AR-J a10-1	26.541	21.108	Lei Hsini; HIP 22350; Hyades Sector AR-J a10-0;	No

Quite a run of internal targets at Indra - including the by now usual run of inner inhabited ones

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Cocijo
Read 183 control systems and 802 regional systems.
Total connected: 183

Furthest Control: 33.590 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Col 285 Sector BA-P c6-3	29.643	20.034	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-6; HR 3048; Col 285 Sector CA-E b13-1;	No
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-18	29.970	22.001	Hez Ur; Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-17;	No
Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-23	30.011	28.202	Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-22;	No
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-3	30.014	24.157	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-1; Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-4; Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-2; etc	Yes
Col 285 Sector AP-F b12-2	30.067	24.231	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-2; Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-0;	No
Col 285 Sector US-H b11-1	30.117	25.141	Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-1; Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-12; Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-10;	No
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-6	30.355	23.772	Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-0; Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-17; Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-3;	No
Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-1	30.453	27.061	Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-8;	No
Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-1	30.635	24.209	Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-2; Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-3; Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-4; etc	No
Col 285 Sector WN-H b11-4	30.707	28.061	Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-12; Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-14; Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-10;	No
Col 285 Sector OM-J b10-1	30.831	28.465	HIP 37844;	No
Col 285 Sector OM-J b10-0	30.849	28.506	Col 285 Sector PM-J b10-4;	No
Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-16	30.965	26.125	Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-17; Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-3;	No
Col 285 Sector BA-P c6-8	30.992	26.325	Njana;	No
Col 285 Sector US-H b11-4	31.025	24.101	Col 285 Sector US-H b11-2; HIP 39750; Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-3; etc	No
Col 285 Sector VY-F b12-3	31.160	21.530	Khwal; Canaharvas (9.960 LY);	No

Cocijo has plenty of internal space too

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Thor
Read 105 control systems and 888 regional systems.
Total connected: 104
Disconnected Controls

System	Distance
Col 285 Sector HP-H b10-3	39.48759942

Furthest Control: 39.488 LY
Furthest potential capture: 42.885 LY - may affect result if not defended

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
HIP 18857	24.616	21.811	Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-1; Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-0;	Yes
HIP 17897	28.008	22.346	Col 285 Sector TH-C b13-3;	No
Synuefe OU-D b45-0	30.347	25.824	Col 285 Sector SW-D b12-2;	No
Col 285 Sector SI-T d3-89	32.772	31.784	Almar;	No
Col 285 Sector SH-C b13-1	34.612	29.231	Varlawoth;	No
Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-3	37.902	32.455	Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-2;	No
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
HIP 18513	40.473	31.156	Col 285 Sector LB-O c6-3;	No

Last week's attack on Thor has left it in a fairly limited position this week too with at most seven Alerts possible.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Raijin
Read 183 control systems and 799 regional systems.
Total connected: 183

Furthest Control: 28.748 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Nu Guang	19.330	11.760	Snoqui;	Yes
Wanmi	26.362	24.008	Pegasi Sector LC-U b3-3; HIP 116542; HIP 116052; etc	Yes
Jawul	26.675	17.462	Chinas; Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-13; Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-25;	Yes
Ngolite	26.894	20.342	Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-8; HIP 113535; Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-0; etc	Yes
Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-3	27.329	19.355	Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-0; HIP 113535; Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-0; etc	No
Tvasu	27.856	24.384	HIP 113076; Pegasi Sector ON-S b4-2;	Yes
Pegasi Sector EB-W b2-3	27.885	19.988	Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-4 (9.926 LY); HIP 115162; Pegasi Sector EB-W b2-2; etc	No
Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-1	27.979	23.024	Balak; Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-6;	No
HIP 117762	28.015	23.198	HIP 117229;	No
HIP 113698	28.090	22.038	Iduni; Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-6; Kamato;	No
HIP 116744	28.615	24.019	HIP 116542;	No
Pegasi Sector LY-O a7-4	28.626	19.893	Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-5; Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-4; Iceniguari; etc	No
Pegasi Sector TK-L a9-4	28.644	21.357	Pegasi Sector TK-L a9-2; Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-3; Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-2; etc	No
Pegasi Sector LY-O a7-2	28.672	21.116	Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-4; Gl 886.1 B; Pegasi Sector LY-O a7-5; etc	No
Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-4	28.704	21.106	Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-5; Pegasi Sector QE-N a8-0; Iceniguari; etc	No
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Pegasi Sector OY-O a7-2	28.793	19.751	Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-9;	No

All internal at Raijin too.

Code:

-- Recaptures above (2 if confirmed, probability otherwise; exhausts below at exactly 1)
-- Indra
HIP 19263:1
HIP 20397:1
HIP 20916:1
70 Tauri:1
HIP 20577:1
Hyades Sector NN-S b4-3:1
Arietis Sector OS-R a5-0:1
Hyades Sector NN-S b4-1:1
HIP 21788:1
-- Cocijo
Col 285 Sector AF-E b13-5:1
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-0:1
Col 285 Sector WN-H b11-5:1
Col 285 Sector RS-H b11-6:1
Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-0:1
Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-4:1
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-7:1
Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-6:1
Col 285 Sector XY-F b12-6:1
-- Thor
HIP 19198:1
Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-2:1
Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-5:1
Col 285 Sector HP-H b10-3:1
-- Raijin
Pegasi Sector LC-U b3-2:1
Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-2:1
Pegasi Sector FB-X c1-22:1
Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-2:1
Pegasi Sector ZQ-J a10-0:1
Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-3:1
Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-7:1
Pegasi Sector FW-W d1-104:1
Chakma:1
-- Hadad

Ian Doncaster · May 30, 2024

Some prediction changes from recaptures at...

...Indra

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
HIP 21918	22.272	16.600	HIP 21179; HIP 21475; Ross 378; etc	Yes
HIP 20491	23.341	15.974	HIP 19934 (10.022 LY); HIP 20480; HIP 20712; etc	Yes
HIP 20056	23.677	17.820	HR 1354; HIP 20679; Hyadum II; etc	Yes
HIP 20492	24.043	15.082	71 Tauri; 86 Rho Tauri; Hyadum II; etc	Yes
HIP 21946	24.111	20.241	HIP 21261; 92 Sigma-2 Tauri; HIP 20890; etc	Yes
78 Theta-2 Tauri	24.568	17.871	HIP 20679; 86 Rho Tauri; Hyadum II; etc	No
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
HIP 21380	26.610	18.554	HIP 20712; (backtrack 69 Upsilon Tauri)	Yes
Hyades Sector FB-X c1-17	25.780	18.594	Hyades Sector JH-V c2-13;	No
HIP 21474	27.124	18.734	86 Rho Tauri; (backtrack 80 Tauri)(backtrack HIP 21654)(backtrack 90 c1 Tauri)	Yes
80 Tauri	25.670	18.976	Hyadum II; (backtrack HIP 20605)(backtrack HIP 20719)	No
HIP 20826	27.682	19.444	79 b Tauri;	Yes
Hyades Sector PI-S b4-0	26.751	19.514	Hyades Sector PI-S b4-3 (9.900 LY);	No
69 Upsilon Tauri	26.471	19.729	Arietis Sector JR-V b2-4; (backtrack Arietis Sector NS-R a5-0)	Yes
Hyades Sector GX-H a11-4	29.433	20.093	HIP 22524; (backtrack HIP 23069)(backtrack Hyades Sector CR-J a10-1)	No
Hyades Sector XU-O b6-1	29.811	20.227	Scythia (9.915 LY); (backtrack Arietis Sector QS-T b3-2)	No
91 Sigma-1 Tauri	29.419	20.629	77 Theta-1 Tauri; (backtrack HIP 20850)(backtrack 57 h Tauri)(backtrack HIP 21317)(backtrack 89 Tauri)(backtrack 85 Tauri)(backtrack 81 Tauri)(backtrack 83 Tauri)	Yes

Recaptures switch Indra to partly external targeting. Would expect the first eight, then the backtrack to 69 Upsilon Tauri

...and Thor

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
HIP 18857	24.616	21.811	Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-1; Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-0;	Yes
HIP 17897	28.008	22.346	Col 285 Sector TH-C b13-3;	No
Synuefe OU-D b45-0	30.347	25.824	Col 285 Sector SW-D b12-2;	No
Col 285 Sector SI-T d3-89	32.772	31.784	Almar;	No
Col 285 Sector SH-C b13-1	34.612	29.231	Varlawoth;	No
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
HIP 18513	40.473	31.156	Col 285 Sector LB-O c6-3;	No

Loses one Alert due to recaptures

Ian Doncaster · May 30, 2024

Narwhal Nose report generated 30 May

-------------------------------------------

Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first nine would be expected to be hit by Alerts. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them. If the Control Sphere Edge is reached and targeting mode switches, predictive confidence is lower and the consequences of recaptures may be more significant.

Table key
Target: Name of system considered at threat of Alert. Bold if in Control-based prioritisation it would be eligible for backtrack targeting.
Target Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the target. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation.
Control Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the attacking Control. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation when attacking outside the control sphere.
Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through; controls containing a Spire are bold. Once targeting switches to Control-based rather than Target-based prioritisation, only one is listed here.
Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.

All Alerts as predicted last week so there doesn't seem to have been any change to that side of things. We'll see how much effect the other changes have soon.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Indra
Read 104 control systems and 884 regional systems.
Total connected: 104

Furthest Control: 25.474 LY
Furthest potential capture: 25.780 LY - may affect result if not defended

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
HIP 20527	22.540	14.040	Hyadum I; HIP 20916; HIP 20577; etc	Yes
HR 1403	24.664	21.889	HIP 20890; Arietis Sector JR-V b2-1; Arietis Sector JR-V b2-3;	Yes
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Arietis Sector JR-V b2-2	26.286	16.450	HIP 20480 (9.966 LY);	No
HIP 20605	26.362	17.089	HIP 20916 (9.975 LY); (backtrack 80 Tauri)	No
HIP 20719	27.717	17.806	HIP 20577 (9.953 LY); (backtrack 68 Tauri)	Yes
HIP 21474	27.124	18.734	86 Rho Tauri; (backtrack HIP 21654)(backtrack 90 c1 Tauri)	Yes
Hyades Sector CR-J a10-1	27.273	18.885	Hyades Sector NN-S b4-3;	No
68 Tauri	26.123	18.976	Hyadum II;	No
HIP 20826	27.682	19.444	79 b Tauri;	Yes
Hyades Sector PI-S b4-0	26.751	19.514	Hyades Sector PI-S b4-3 (9.900 LY);	No
Hyades Sector GX-H a11-4	29.433	20.093	HIP 22524; (backtrack HIP 23069)	No
Hyades Sector XU-O b6-1	29.811	20.227	Scythia (9.915 LY); (backtrack Arietis Sector QS-T b3-2)	No
91 Sigma-1 Tauri	29.419	20.629	77 Theta-1 Tauri; (backtrack HIP 20850)(backtrack 57 h Tauri)(backtrack HIP 21317)(backtrack 89 Tauri)(backtrack 85 Tauri)(backtrack 81 Tauri)(backtrack 83 Tauri)	Yes
48 Tauri	27.453	20.963	70 Tauri;	Yes
Hyades Sector BC-I a11-1	29.648	21.108	Lei Hsini; (backtrack Hyades Sector AR-J a10-1)(backtrack Hyades Sector EX-H a11-1)	No
Hyades Sector JH-U b3-6	28.145	21.389	Arietis Sector HG-X b1-0 (9.949 LY);	No

Indra extremely likely to be external targeting, with plenty of backtracks available to get the full nine.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Cocijo
Read 190 control systems and 796 regional systems.
Total connected: 190

Furthest Control: 33.590 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Sukurbago	24.150	23.878	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-7;	Yes
Chibis	24.821	17.688	Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-3; Mapon; Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-5; etc	Yes
Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-2	25.800	27.816	Col 285 Sector WN-H b11-5; Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-25;	No
Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-3	29.507	26.325	Njana; Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-76;	No
Col 285 Sector PM-J b10-1	29.540	29.712	Col 285 Sector PM-J b10-3;	No
Col 285 Sector WN-H b11-4	30.707	28.061	Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-12; Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-14; Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-10;	No
Col 285 Sector OM-J b10-1	30.831	28.465	HIP 37844;	No
Col 285 Sector OM-J b10-0	30.849	28.506	Col 285 Sector PM-J b10-4;	No
Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-16	30.965	26.125	Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-17; Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-3;	No
Col 285 Sector BA-P c6-8	30.992	29.600	Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-76;	No
Col 285 Sector US-H b11-4	31.025	24.101	Col 285 Sector US-H b11-2; HIP 39750; Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-3; etc	No
Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-27	31.037	29.283	Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-25;	No
Col 285 Sector VY-F b12-3	31.160	21.530	Khwal; Canaharvas (9.960 LY);	No
Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-28	31.180	28.140	Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-14;	No
Col 285 Sector UD-G b12-5	31.260	25.947	Col 285 Sector UD-G b12-2; Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-11;	No
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-68	31.281	22.723	Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-69; Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-136;	No

Cocijo retains plenty of internal options

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Thor
Read 103 control systems and 889 regional systems.
Total connected: 103

Furthest Control: 34.834 LY
Furthest potential capture: 40.473 LY - may affect result if not defended

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-15	35.033	28.185	Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-14;	No
Col 285 Sector MQ-F b11-3	36.005	28.412	Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-1;	No
Hyades Sector MM-M b7-1	35.769	28.684	HIP 20489;	No
Col 285 Sector WC-C b13-2	35.479	31.792	Col 285 Sector LB-O c6-1;	No

Thor is extremely short on perimeter this week, and should be the one which starts off with the Counterstrike bonus

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Raijin
Read 191 control systems and 793 regional systems.
Total connected: 191

Furthest Control: 28.748 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-4	26.720	20.143	HIP 115162; Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-5; Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-1; etc	No
Pegasi Sector JS-Q a6-2	27.531	22.028	Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-1; Tagin; Pegasi Sector EB-W b2-2; etc	No
Pegasi Sector HW-V b2-0	28.088	24.019	HIP 116542; Pegasi Sector FB-X c1-22; Pegasi Sector HW-V b2-1; etc	Yes
HIP 113698	28.090	22.038	Iduni; Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-6; Kamato; etc	No
HIP 116744	28.615	26.084	Pegasi Sector FB-X c1-22;	No
Pegasi Sector LY-O a7-4	28.626	19.893	Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-5; Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-4; Iceniguari; etc	No
Pegasi Sector TK-L a9-4	28.644	21.357	Pegasi Sector TK-L a9-2; Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-3; Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-2; etc	No
Pegasi Sector LY-O a7-2	28.672	21.116	Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-4; Gl 886.1 B; Pegasi Sector LY-O a7-5; etc	No
Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-4	28.704	21.106	Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-5; Pegasi Sector QE-N a8-0; Iceniguari; etc	No
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Pegasi Sector OY-O a7-2	28.793	19.751	Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-9;	No
Pegasi Sector SE-N a8-1	29.213	20.431	HIP 113535 (9.918 LY);	No
Pegasi Sector WK-L a9-0	29.327	21.135	Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-4; (backtrack Pegasi Sector WK-L a9-2)	No
Pegasi Sector WK-L a9-4	29.717	21.214	Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-0;	No
Pegasi Sector SK-L a9-2	30.350	21.377	Pegasi Sector HH-U b3-2; (backtrack Pegasi Sector HH-U b3-5)	No
Pegasi Sector SP-L a9-0	30.874	21.584	Chakma; (backtrack Pegasi Sector SP-L a9-3)(backtrack Pegasi Sector SP-L a9-2)	No
Pegasi Sector SP-L a9-2	30.484	21.935	Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-3; (backtrack Pegasi Sector YQ-J a10-4)	No

Just about room for Raijin to get nine internally.

Code:

-- Recaptures above (2 if confirmed, probability otherwise; exhausts below at exactly 1)
-- Indra
HIP 21179:1
HIP 19934:1
HR 1354:1
71 Tauri:1
HIP 21261:1
HIP 20679:1
HIP 20712:1
Hyades Sector JH-V c2-13:1
Arietis Sector JR-V b2-4:1
-- Cocijo
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-6:1
Hez Ur:1
Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-22:1
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-1:1
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-2:1
Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-1:1
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-0:1
Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-8:1
Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-2:1
-- Thor
Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-1:1
Col 285 Sector TH-C b13-3:1
Col 285 Sector SW-D b12-2:1
Almar:1
Varlawoth:1
Col 285 Sector LB-O c6-3:1
-- Raijin
Snoqui:1
Pegasi Sector LC-U b3-3:1
Chinas:1
Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-8:1
Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-0:1
HIP 113076:1
Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-4:1
Balak:1
HIP 117229:1

Ian Doncaster · Jun 6, 2024

Minor changes to the Indra prediction due to the control sphere boundary moving in one Alert. Recaptures and defences elsewhere do not affect the predictions.

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
HIP 20527	22.540	14.040	Hyadum I; HIP 20916; HIP 20577; etc	Yes
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Arietis Sector JR-V b2-2	26.286	16.450	HIP 20480 (9.966 LY);	No
HIP 20605	26.362	17.089	HIP 20916 (9.975 LY); (backtrack 80 Tauri)	No
HIP 20719	27.717	17.806	HIP 20577 (9.953 LY); (backtrack 68 Tauri)	Yes
HIP 21474	27.124	18.734	86 Rho Tauri; (backtrack HIP 21654)(backtrack 90 c1 Tauri)	Yes
Hyades Sector CR-J a10-1	27.273	18.885	Hyades Sector NN-S b4-3;	No
68 Tauri	26.123	18.976	Hyadum II;	No
HIP 20826	27.682	19.444	79 b Tauri;	Yes
Hyades Sector PI-S b4-0	26.751	19.514	Hyades Sector PI-S b4-3 (9.900 LY);	No
Hyades Sector GX-H a11-4	29.433	20.093	HIP 22524; (backtrack HIP 23069)	No
Hyades Sector XU-O b6-1	29.811	20.227	Scythia (9.915 LY); (backtrack Arietis Sector QS-T b3-2)	No
48 Tauri	27.453	20.963	70 Tauri; (backtrack HIP 20850)(backtrack 57 h Tauri)(backtrack HIP 21317)(backtrack 89 Tauri)(backtrack 85 Tauri)(backtrack 81 Tauri)(backtrack 83 Tauri)	Yes
Hyades Sector BC-I a11-1	29.648	21.108	Lei Hsini; (backtrack Hyades Sector AR-J a10-1)(backtrack Hyades Sector EX-H a11-1)	No
Hyades Sector JH-U b3-6	28.145	21.389	Arietis Sector HG-X b1-0 (9.949 LY);	No
Hyades Sector ST-Q b5-1	29.409	21.702	Hyades Sector ST-Q b5-5;	No
91 Sigma-1 Tauri	29.419	21.704	HIP 20815;	Yes

Ian Doncaster · Jun 6, 2024

Indra prediction: 8 of 9, the attack at Arietis Sector JR-V b2-2 didn't happen, instead Hyades Sector GX-H a11-4 was attacked as the next on the list
Cocijo: correct
Thor: correct
Raijin: correct for the 8 it did place, but FB-X c1-22 didn't attack HIP 116744 and then the 9th Alert was lost to the targeting mode switch

The missed Indra attack could just be errors in which Controls are online which will hopefully filter out over time (and as they're recaptured...)

Less sure about the Raijin one, though - nothing anywhere near FB-X c1-22 was attacked last week so it surely was online, but it's possible that HIP 116542 was offline unexpectedly, so FB-X c1-22 went for HW-V b2-0 and then nothing else could reach HIP 116744. That seems the simplest explanation.

Ian Doncaster · Jun 6, 2024

Narwhal Nose report generated 6 June

-------------------------------------------

Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first nine would be expected to be hit by Alerts. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them. If the Control Sphere Edge is reached and targeting mode switches, predictive confidence is lower and the consequences of recaptures may be more significant.

Table key
Target: Name of system considered at threat of Alert. Bold if in Control-based prioritisation it would be eligible for backtrack targeting.
Target Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the target. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation.
Control Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the attacking Control. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation when attacking outside the control sphere.
Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through; controls containing a Spire are bold. Once targeting switches to Control-based rather than Target-based prioritisation, only one is listed here.
Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.

With the guesses above about which systems are inactive this time...

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Indra
Read 91 control systems and 898 regional systems.
Total connected: 91

Furthest Control: 24.165 LY
Furthest potential capture: 29.433 LY - may affect result if not defended

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Obamumbo	18.655	14.788	HIP 19263; Gaezatorix (9.996 LY); Arietis Sector MM-V b2-1; etc	Yes
HIP 20485	21.436	11.826	63 Tauri; 64 Tauri; 71 Tauri; etc	Yes
Kagutsuchi	22.496	20.115	Arietis Sector LM-V b2-3; Arietis Sector NH-V b2-0;	Yes
HIP 20948	23.542	17.820	HR 1354; HIP 20679; HIP 21261; etc	Yes
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Arietis Sector JR-V b2-2	26.286	16.450	HIP 20480 (9.966 LY);	No
HIP 20019	25.583	17.871	HIP 20679;	Yes
HIP 19757	24.520	17.955	HIP 20419; (backtrack Hyades Sector UO-Q b5-2)	Yes
Hyades Sector JH-U b3-5	26.135	18.372	Hyades Sector NN-S b4-1; (backtrack Hyades Sector IH-U b3-3)	No
65 Kappa Tauri	25.424	18.554	HIP 20712; (backtrack HR 1403)	Yes
HR 1403	24.664	19.729	Arietis Sector JR-V b2-4; (backtrack Arietis Sector NS-R a5-1)(backtrack Arietis Sector NS-R a5-0)	Yes
Hyades Sector XU-O b6-1	29.811	20.227	Scythia (9.915 LY); (backtrack Arietis Sector QS-T b3-2)	No
Ain	28.634	20.241	HIP 21261 (10.025 LY);	No
48 Tauri	27.453	20.963	70 Tauri; (backtrack HIP 19781)(backtrack 80 Tauri)(backtrack HIP 20850)(backtrack 57 h Tauri)(backtrack HIP 21317)(backtrack 89 Tauri)(backtrack 85 Tauri)(backtrack 81 Tauri)(backtrack 83 Tauri)	Yes
Hyades Sector BC-I a11-1	29.648	21.108	Lei Hsini; (backtrack Hyades Sector AR-J a10-1)(backtrack Hyades Sector EX-H a11-1)	No
Hyades Sector JH-U b3-6	28.145	21.389	Arietis Sector HG-X b1-0 (9.949 LY);	No
Hyades Sector ST-Q b5-4	25.800	21.702	Hyades Sector ST-Q b5-5; (backtrack HIP 23069)(backtrack Hyades Sector ST-Q b5-1)	Yes

Indra's outer Control is a spire, so it may well keep this radius. Potential to throw out quite a few inhabited Alerts next week.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Cocijo
Read 197 control systems and 791 regional systems.
Total connected: 197

Furthest Control: 33.590 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-0	20.899	18.409	Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-15; Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-16; HIP 38718; etc	No
Picenile	24.796	19.205	Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-16; Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-6; Khwal; etc	Yes
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-6	28.669	20.237	Kurumanit; Mahlina; Vucumatha; etc	No
Col 285 Sector XT-F b12-7	28.801	23.391	HIP 36901;	No
Col 285 Sector AF-E b13-0	29.280	23.548	Canaharvas; Col 285 Sector AF-E b13-5; Col 285 Sector AF-E b13-3; etc	No
Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-7	29.293	25.105	Desurinbin; Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-23;	No
Col 285 Sector BP-F b12-2	29.492	24.864	Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-5; Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-7 (9.933 LY); Col 285 Sector BP-F b12-1; etc	No
Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-101	30.406	28.202	Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-22;	No
Col 285 Sector BA-P c6-8	30.992	27.061	Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-8; Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-76; Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-1;	No
Col 285 Sector US-H b11-4	31.025	24.101	Col 285 Sector US-H b11-2; HIP 39750; Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-3; etc	No
Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-27	31.037	29.283	Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-25;	No
Col 285 Sector VY-F b12-3	31.160	21.530	Khwal;	No
Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-28	31.180	28.140	Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-14;	No
Col 285 Sector UD-G b12-5	31.260	25.947	Col 285 Sector UD-G b12-2; Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-11;	No
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-68	31.281	22.723	Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-69; Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-136;	No
Col 285 Sector RS-H b11-3	31.399	23.090	Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-0; Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-3; Vocovii; etc	No

Cocijo still gradually infilling its interior and likely to stay that way for quite a while.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Thor
Read 107 control systems and 888 regional systems.
Total connected: 107

Furthest Control: 34.834 LY
Furthest potential capture: 36.005 LY - may affect result if not defended

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
HIP 21724	29.661	32.772	Col 285 Sector SI-T d3-89;	Yes
Theemim	30.148	22.217	Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-4; Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-3; Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-3;	Yes
Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-0	30.239	28.863	Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-2; HIP 17310;	No
Synuefe OU-D b45-3	30.565	25.824	Col 285 Sector SW-D b12-2; Synuefe OU-D b45-0;	No
Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-13	31.072	24.842	Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-5;	No
Synuefe OU-D b45-1	31.109	30.347	Synuefe OU-D b45-0;	No
HIP 16954	32.671	28.008	HIP 17897;	Yes
Col 285 Sector SH-C b13-0	33.419	29.231	Varlawoth; Col 285 Sector SH-C b13-1;	No
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Col 285 Sector LL-E b12-3	35.161	27.471	Col 285 Sector LL-E b12-1;	No
Col 285 Sector QR-C b13-3	38.910	31.784	Almar; (backtrack Col 285 Sector HL-O c6-14)(backtrack Col 285 Sector QR-C b13-4)(backtrack Col 285 Sector HL-O c6-15)	No
Col 285 Sector KB-O c6-11	35.783	34.612	Col 285 Sector SH-C b13-1;	No

Cooldowns ending give Thor a bit of choice of targets this time. At the moment, 8 inner then stopping is likely - but if the Alerts go through it'll get a ninth internal later.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Raijin
Read 192 control systems and 797 regional systems.
Total connected: 192

Furthest Control: 28.748 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Vistnero	21.009	19.034	Pegasi Sector QE-N a8-1; Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-9; Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-8 (9.976 LY); etc	Yes
Isla	23.900	18.935	Pegasi Sector LC-U b3-2 (9.952 LY); HIP 116542; HIP 116052; etc	Yes
HIP 117177	24.758	21.188	Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-6; Kuruma;	Yes
Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-0	26.084	23.131	Iceniguari; Pegasi Sector EB-W b2-2; Pegasi Sector LY-O a7-3; etc	No
HIP 116744	28.615	24.019	HIP 116542;	No
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Pegasi Sector OY-O a7-2	28.793	19.751	Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-9;	No
Pegasi Sector SE-N a8-1	29.213	20.342	Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-8;	No
Pegasi Sector WK-L a9-0	29.327	21.135	Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-4; (backtrack Pegasi Sector WK-L a9-2)	No
Pegasi Sector WK-L a9-4	29.717	21.214	Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-0;	No
Pegasi Sector SK-L a9-2	30.350	21.377	Pegasi Sector HH-U b3-2; (backtrack Pegasi Sector HH-U b3-5)	No
Pegasi Sector SP-L a9-0	30.874	21.584	Chakma; (backtrack Pegasi Sector SP-L a9-3)(backtrack Pegasi Sector SP-L a9-2)	No
Pegasi Sector SP-L a9-2	30.484	21.935	Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-3; (backtrack Pegasi Sector YQ-J a10-4)	No
Pegasi Sector SP-L a9-4	31.586	21.946	Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-5;	No
Ralteki	28.923	22.027	Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-20;	Yes
Pegasi Sector GW-W d1-96	32.332	22.514	Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-7; (backtrack Pegasi Sector QI-S b4-3)	No
Pegasi Sector TP-L a9-4	30.523	22.736	Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-1; (backtrack Pegasi Sector OJ-N a8-0)	No

Raijin coming up to its perimeter again

Code:

-- Recaptures above (2 if confirmed, probability otherwise; exhausts below at exactly 1)
-- Indra
Hyadum I:1
HIP 20916:1
HIP 20577:1
86 Rho Tauri:1
Hyades Sector NN-S b4-3:1
Hyadum II:1
79 b Tauri:1
Hyades Sector PI-S b4-3:1
HIP 22524:1
-- Cocijo
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-7:1
Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-3:1
Col 285 Sector WN-H b11-5:1
Njana:1
Col 285 Sector PM-J b10-3:1
Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-12:1
HIP 37844:1
Col 285 Sector PM-J b10-4:1
Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-17:1
-- Thor
Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-14:1
Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-1:1
HIP 20489:1
Col 285 Sector LB-O c6-1:1
-- Raijin
HIP 115162:1
Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-1:1
Iduni:1
Pegasi Sector FB-X c1-22:1
Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-5:1
Pegasi Sector TK-L a9-2:1
Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-4:1
Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-5:1