Narwhal Nose report generated 10 October
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Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first three would be expected to be hit by Invasions, then the next two with Alerts. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them. If the Control Sphere Edge is reached and targeting mode switches, predictive confidence is lower and the consequences of recaptures may be more significant.
Table key
Target: Name of system considered at threat of Alert. Bold if in Control-based prioritisation it would be eligible for backtrack targeting.
Target Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the target. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation.
Control Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the attacking Control. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation when attacking outside the control sphere.
Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through; controls containing a Spire are bold. Once targeting switches to Control-based rather than Target-based prioritisation, only one is listed here.
Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.
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Calculating Cocijo
Read 165 control systems and 829 regional systems.
Total connected: 166
Furthest Control: 28.506 LY
Not quite identical to 3 weeks ago because the edge has come in slightly, but it doesn't change the predictions for which systems get attacked. We might start getting a little more variation in these soon.
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Calculating Raijin
Read 10 control systems and 984 regional systems.
Total connected: 4
Disconnected Controls
Furthest Control: 17.141 LY
It's obviously highly unlikely that Raijin will get to use this one, and whatever happens it will have no usable perimeter next week either, so this is expected to be the last Raijin prediction.
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Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first three would be expected to be hit by Invasions, then the next two with Alerts. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them. If the Control Sphere Edge is reached and targeting mode switches, predictive confidence is lower and the consequences of recaptures may be more significant.
Table key
Target: Name of system considered at threat of Alert. Bold if in Control-based prioritisation it would be eligible for backtrack targeting.
Target Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the target. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation.
Control Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the attacking Control. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation when attacking outside the control sphere.
Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through; controls containing a Spire are bold. Once targeting switches to Control-based rather than Target-based prioritisation, only one is listed here.
Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.
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Calculating Cocijo
Read 165 control systems and 829 regional systems.
Total connected: 166
Furthest Control: 28.506 LY
Target | Target Distance | Control Distance | Attackers | Inhabited? |
Picenile | 24.796 | 19.205 | Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-16; Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-6; Khwal; etc | Yes |
- | - | - | Control Sphere Edge | - |
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-11 | 28.899 | 20.237 | Kurumanit (9.965 LY); | Yes |
Asletae | 28.536 | 21.530 | Khwal; | Yes |
Daisla | 31.962 | 24.157 | Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-1; | Yes |
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-146 | 33.189 | 24.597 | HR 3048; | Yes |
HIP 38134 | 32.231 | 26.329 | Col 285 Sector CA-E b13-1; | Yes |
Purukuna | 34.224 | 26.920 | Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-17; | Yes |
Goansi | 35.553 | 27.613 | Col 285 Sector TN-H b11-5; | Yes |
Na Zha | 32.027 | 27.847 | Col 285 Sector BA-P c6-10; | Yes |
Njambula | 34.910 | 28.465 | HIP 37844; | Yes |
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Calculating Raijin
Read 10 control systems and 984 regional systems.
Total connected: 4
Disconnected Controls
System | Distance |
Tsao Chun | 11.32807112 |
Pegasi Sector JH-V c2-23 | 13.33317057 |
Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-6 | 13.43357501 |
Pegasi Sector FW-W d1-111 | 14.20755053 |
Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-7 | 15.55848342 |
Marindhs | 15.81561852 |
Camenisar | 17.14090274 |
Furthest Control: 17.141 LY
Target | Target Distance | Control Distance | Attackers | Inhabited? |
- | - | - | Control Sphere Edge | - |
HIP 116351 | 17.663 | 15.558 | Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-7; | Yes |
Code:
-- Recaptures above (2 if confirmed, probability otherwise; exhausts below at exactly 1)
-- Cocijo
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-7:1
Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-3:1
Mapon:1
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-102:1
-- Raijin