Analysing the Thargoid Simulation

Ian Doncaster · Oct 10, 2024

Narwhal Nose report generated 10 October

-------------------------------------------

Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first three would be expected to be hit by Invasions, then the next two with Alerts. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them. If the Control Sphere Edge is reached and targeting mode switches, predictive confidence is lower and the consequences of recaptures may be more significant.

Table key
Target: Name of system considered at threat of Alert. Bold if in Control-based prioritisation it would be eligible for backtrack targeting.
Target Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the target. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation.
Control Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the attacking Control. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation when attacking outside the control sphere.
Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through; controls containing a Spire are bold. Once targeting switches to Control-based rather than Target-based prioritisation, only one is listed here.
Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Cocijo
Read 165 control systems and 829 regional systems.
Total connected: 166

Furthest Control: 28.506 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Picenile	24.796	19.205	Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-16; Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-6; Khwal; etc	Yes
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-11	28.899	20.237	Kurumanit (9.965 LY);	Yes
Asletae	28.536	21.530	Khwal;	Yes
Daisla	31.962	24.157	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-1;	Yes
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-146	33.189	24.597	HR 3048;	Yes
HIP 38134	32.231	26.329	Col 285 Sector CA-E b13-1;	Yes
Purukuna	34.224	26.920	Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-17;	Yes
Goansi	35.553	27.613	Col 285 Sector TN-H b11-5;	Yes
Na Zha	32.027	27.847	Col 285 Sector BA-P c6-10;	Yes
Njambula	34.910	28.465	HIP 37844;	Yes

Not quite identical to 3 weeks ago because the edge has come in slightly, but it doesn't change the predictions for which systems get attacked. We might start getting a little more variation in these soon.

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Calculating Raijin
Read 10 control systems and 984 regional systems.
Total connected: 4
Disconnected Controls

System	Distance
Tsao Chun	11.32807112
Pegasi Sector JH-V c2-23	13.33317057
Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-6	13.43357501
Pegasi Sector FW-W d1-111	14.20755053
Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-7	15.55848342
Marindhs	15.81561852
Camenisar	17.14090274

Furthest Control: 17.141 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
HIP 116351	17.663	15.558	Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-7;	Yes

It's obviously highly unlikely that Raijin will get to use this one, and whatever happens it will have no usable perimeter next week either, so this is expected to be the last Raijin prediction.

Code:

-- Recaptures above (2 if confirmed, probability otherwise; exhausts below at exactly 1)
-- Cocijo
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-7:1
Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-3:1
Mapon:1
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-102:1
-- Raijin

Kryxix · Oct 10, 2024

Kira Goto · Oct 10, 2024

Kryxix said:
View attachment 404306

There have been two or three of those messages (including this one, though I only remember two others with Oya and Thor), the only time anything actually happened with one was when Oya did its alert spam out of nowhere.

It could be a scripted thing if a Titan is at or <10 controls but not vulnerable. Or some Frontier guy is told to write this up early at work while still on coffee (or whatever else keeps them going in morning times), but eh. They seem a little redundant to me, we already knew what to do after Leigong.

Ian Doncaster · Oct 10, 2024

I expect they're more to remind people who aren't regularly taking part that there's something to do, rather than for the people who are already there.

Kira Goto · Oct 10, 2024

True enough, I suppose. I’d just have assumed the people that are actually interested in the Titan things are already doing them… but maybe not. I guess we’re waiting for next week (or the one after?) for anything besides the same old usual to occur.

And given the lack of local invasions, vulnerability seems all but inevitable next week anyway.

Kryxix · Oct 13, 2024

Raijin is down to zero systems.

Ian Doncaster · Oct 13, 2024

And no inhabited systems within 10 LY, so it can't place a conventional attack (if uninhabited systems are still allowed for Titan alerts, then the spire at NN-S b4-2 will be well outside cooldown by then, though of course it won't get chance to complete it if it does)

Kira Goto · Oct 13, 2024

One spire won’t save the Titan anyway, if Hadad’s example is anything to go by, even if it immediately transitioned into control.

… and I’m not sure why they insisted on sending Orthrus into the unpopulated systems for so long anyway, seeing as human resistance in those systems is practically nonexistent until they are taken over, or under threat of such.

Ian Doncaster · Oct 17, 2024

Narwhal Nose report generated 17 October

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Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first three would be expected to be hit by Invasions, then the next two with Alerts. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them. If the Control Sphere Edge is reached and targeting mode switches, predictive confidence is lower and the consequences of recaptures may be more significant.

Table key
Target: Name of system considered at threat of Alert. Bold if in Control-based prioritisation it would be eligible for backtrack targeting.
Target Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the target. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation.
Control Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the attacking Control. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation when attacking outside the control sphere.
Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through; controls containing a Spire are bold. Once targeting switches to Control-based rather than Target-based prioritisation, only one is listed here.
Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.

No significant changes - beyond the obvious - to last week's predictions. With Raijin now permanently entirely out of conventional targets even if it were somehow to survive the week, it is removed from the predictions.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Cocijo
Read 154 control systems and 838 regional systems.
Total connected: 154

Furthest Control: 28.116 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Laumas	29.269	23.090	Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-0;	Yes
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-3	30.014	24.162	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-4;	Yes
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-146	33.189	24.597	HR 3048;	Yes
HIP 40786	31.389	25.947	Col 285 Sector UD-G b12-2;	Yes
HIP 38134	32.231	26.329	Col 285 Sector CA-E b13-1;	Yes
Purukuna	34.224	26.920	Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-17;	Yes
Goansi	35.553	27.613	Col 285 Sector TN-H b11-5; (backtrack Wogaiawong)	Yes
Na Zha	32.027	27.847	Col 285 Sector BA-P c6-10;	Yes

Starting the week's prediction with a fairly conventional external run. With the attack on Raijin and the Ascendancy release, there might not be much time to change that.

Code:

-- Recaptures above (2 if confirmed, probability otherwise; exhausts below at exactly 1)
-- Cocijo
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-16:1
Kurumanit:1
Khwal:1
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-1:1

Kira Goto · Oct 17, 2024

How likely (or how much faster) is Cocijo to run out of attacks compared to Raijin now that it is liable to lose systems (more) quickly? Been wondering that.

Kryxix · Oct 17, 2024

And the latest:

Ian Doncaster · Oct 17, 2024

Kira Goto said:
How likely (or how much faster) is Cocijo to run out of attacks compared to Raijin now that it is liable to lose systems (more) quickly?

That really depends on how it gets attacked.

Cocijo being much more on the edge of the bubble than Raijin was has this entire half of its presence - top of the current picture - which basically does nothing.

So a lot of its current perimeter can be knocked out by taking out a relatively small number of border systems if the goal was to stop/reduce Invasions. On the other hand, if people wanted to keep Invasions going as long as possible because people like Invasions, they could take the top side first. [1]

A spire-led outside-in attack would probably take a couple of weeks to start really damaging the perimeter, but of course there's quite a shortage of spires at Cocijo now.

[1] Taking out the bottom two-thirds of the map, and leaving Cocijo with too many uninhabited systems to be attacked which no-one really likes clearing, but no potential at all to place its own attacks under the current rules, would be the comedy outcome.

Ian Doncaster · Oct 24, 2024

Narwhal Nose report generated 24 October

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Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first three would be expected to be hit by Invasions, then the next two with Alerts. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them. If the Control Sphere Edge is reached and targeting mode switches, predictive confidence is lower and the consequences of recaptures may be more significant.

Table key
Target: Name of system considered at threat of Alert. Bold if in Control-based prioritisation it would be eligible for backtrack targeting.
Target Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the target. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation.
Control Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the attacking Control. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation when attacking outside the control sphere.
Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through; controls containing a Spire are bold. Once targeting switches to Control-based rather than Target-based prioritisation, only one is listed here.
Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.

No changes required to last week's prediction (a few systems were attacked from a different place, though)

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Cocijo
Read 144 control systems and 845 regional systems.
Total connected: 143
Disconnected Controls

System	Distance
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-17	26.9199116
Col 285 Sector WN-H b11-5	27.81558972

Furthest Control: 28.030 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Sukurbago	24.150	23.878	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-7;	Yes
Chibis	24.821	17.688	Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-3; Mapon; Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-5; etc	Yes
Col 285 Sector AF-E b13-5	26.491	17.824	Mapon; Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-5 (9.976 LY); Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-6;	Yes
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Col 285 Sector XT-F b12-2	35.126	26.317	Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-102;	Yes
HIP 38134	32.231	26.329	Col 285 Sector CA-E b13-1;	Yes
Purukuna	34.224	26.920	Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-17;	Yes
Goansi	35.553	27.613	Col 285 Sector TN-H b11-5; (backtrack Wogaiawong)	Yes

Shifting the border inwards to make AF-E b13-5 an external attack would require 22 recaptures; without Spire assistance to both clear the systems and encourage a strict outside-in targeting that seems unlikely. Five of these attacks are single-source - and this is the full list for the week - so the prediction may need to be reissued depending on the depth of recaptures.

Code:

-- Recaptures above (2 if confirmed, probability otherwise; exhausts below at exactly 1)
-- Cocijo
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-0:1
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-2:1
HR 3048:1
Col 285 Sector UD-G b12-2:1

Ian Doncaster · Oct 31, 2024

A minor revision of the Cocijo prediction - XT-F b12-2 is guarded, moving the Alert onto HIP 38134.

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Sukurbago	24.150	23.878	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-7;	Yes
Chibis	24.821	17.688	Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-3; Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-5; Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-6;	Yes
Col 285 Sector AF-E b13-5	26.491	19.034	Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-5 (9.976 LY); Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-6;	Yes
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
HIP 38134	32.231	26.329	Col 285 Sector CA-E b13-1;	Yes
Purukuna	34.224	26.920	Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-17;	Yes

A total control recapture of 20 systems (plus one at Taranis) is on track for vulnerability w/c 19 December, but there are still too many unknowns to take that prediction seriously.

Ian Doncaster · Oct 31, 2024

Narwhal Nose report generated 31 October

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Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first three would be expected to be hit by Invasions, then the next two with Alerts. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them. If the Control Sphere Edge is reached and targeting mode switches, predictive confidence is lower and the consequences of recaptures may be more significant.

Table key
Target: Name of system considered at threat of Alert. Bold if in Control-based prioritisation it would be eligible for backtrack targeting.
Target Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the target. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation.
Control Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the attacking Control. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation when attacking outside the control sphere.
Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through; controls containing a Spire are bold. Once targeting switches to Control-based rather than Target-based prioritisation, only one is listed here.
Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.

Purukuna was Alerted as well last week. At this stage it's not possible to tell whether this is a simple increase of the budget to 6, an increase of the budget to more than 6, or a removal of the cost to switching targeting modes.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Cocijo
Read 117 control systems and 870 regional systems.
Total connected: 117

Furthest Control: 27.741 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Picenile	24.796	19.205	Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-16; Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-6; HIP 36901;	Yes
Njana	26.325	21.681	Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-105;	Yes
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-11	28.899	20.237	Kurumanit (9.965 LY);	Yes
Daisla	31.962	24.157	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-1;	Yes

With only four conventional targets this week anyway, we're not about to find out what happened to the budgeting rules. The Njana and Daisla attacks are single-Control ones, so are the most likely to disappear as a result of recaptures, though both are far in enough not to be affected by a Spire-led sweep.

Code:

-- Recaptures above (2 if confirmed, probability otherwise; exhausts below at exactly 1)
-- Cocijo
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-7:1
Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-3:1
Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-5:1
Col 285 Sector CA-E b13-1:1
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-17:1

Ian Doncaster · Nov 7, 2024

An impressive 33 recaptures cuts Cocijo down to two expected Invasions

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Picenile	24.796	19.205	Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-16; Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-6; HIP 36901;	Yes
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-11	28.899	20.237	Kurumanit (9.965 LY);	Yes

Ian Doncaster · Nov 7, 2024

Narwhal Nose report generated 7 November

-------------------------------------------

Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first three would be expected to be hit by Invasions, then the next two with Alerts. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them. If the Control Sphere Edge is reached and targeting mode switches, predictive confidence is lower and the consequences of recaptures may be more significant.

Table key
Target: Name of system considered at threat of Alert. Bold if in Control-based prioritisation it would be eligible for backtrack targeting.
Target Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the target. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation.
Control Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the attacking Control. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation when attacking outside the control sphere.
Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through; controls containing a Spire are bold. Once targeting switches to Control-based rather than Target-based prioritisation, only one is listed here.
Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Cocijo
Read 84 control systems and 910 regional systems.
Total connected: 85

Furthest Control: 25.325 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Paitra	24.880	18.193	Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-4; Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-5; Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-3; etc	Yes
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Laumas	29.269	23.090	Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-0; (backtrack HIP 37844)	Yes
HIP 37844	28.465	25.105	Desurinbin;	Yes

At least for now, Cocijo seems to be running out of targets - though next week will see a lot of cooldowns end, so it might have more choice next time. The two outer attacks are dependent on the two listed systems, one of which is a counter-strike port with significant progress already, so there's a good chance they won't happen.

Code:

-- Recaptures above (2 if confirmed, probability otherwise; exhausts below at exactly 1)
-- Cocijo
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-16:1
Kurumanit:1

Ian Doncaster · Nov 14, 2024

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Paitra	24.880	18.193	Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-4;	Yes
Laumas	29.269	23.090	Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-0; (backtrack HIP 37844)	Yes

A couple of minor updates - HIP 37844 protected, and the edge moves in so that Paitra is technically an external attack

Ian Doncaster · Nov 14, 2024

Narwhal Nose report generated 14 November

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Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first three would be expected to be hit by Invasions, then the next two with Alerts. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them. If the Control Sphere Edge is reached and targeting mode switches, predictive confidence is lower and the consequences of recaptures may be more significant.

Table key
Target: Name of system considered at threat of Alert. Bold if in Control-based prioritisation it would be eligible for backtrack targeting.
Target Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the target. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation.
Control Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the attacking Control. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation when attacking outside the control sphere.
Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through; controls containing a Spire are bold. Once targeting switches to Control-based rather than Target-based prioritisation, only one is listed here.
Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Cocijo
Read 62 control systems and 929 regional systems.
Total connected: 56
Disconnected Controls

System	Distance
Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-4	16.36467948
Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-7	17.73475358
Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-15	18.97209608
Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-52	21.46549739
Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-53	22.36463185
Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-6	22.72296213
Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-5	24.18097861

Furthest Control: 24.181 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Khwal	21.530	18.409	Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-15; Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-16; Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-10;	Yes
Hez Ur	22.001	19.034	Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-5;	Yes
Vucumatha	23.098	19.205	Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-16 (9.934 LY); Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-10;	Yes
Canaharvas	23.548	20.476	Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-10;	Yes
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Col 285 Sector AF-E b13-5	26.491	20.034	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-6; (backtrack Chibis)	Yes

Five attacks possible this week (with Chibis also targetable) all from the same small cluster of systems, so the exact order of attack and targeting will depend heavily on what if any recaptures happen in that area.

Code:

-- Recaptures above (2 if confirmed, probability otherwise; exhausts below at exactly 1)
-- Cocijo
Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-4:1
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-0:1

Ian Doncaster · 2024-11-21T17:10:19+0000

Narwhal Nose report generated 21 November

-------------------------------------------

Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first three would be expected to be hit by Invasions, then the next two with Alerts. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them. If the Control Sphere Edge is reached and targeting mode switches, predictive confidence is lower and the consequences of recaptures may be more significant.

Table key
Target: Name of system considered at threat of Alert. Bold if in Control-based prioritisation it would be eligible for backtrack targeting.
Target Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the target. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation.
Control Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the attacking Control. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation when attacking outside the control sphere.
Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through; controls containing a Spire are bold. Once targeting switches to Control-based rather than Target-based prioritisation, only one is listed here.
Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.

Last week's recaptures as mentioned elsewhere reduced the predicted number of attacks to zero, which then happened as expected.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Cocijo
Read 41 control systems and 953 regional systems.
Total connected: 36
Disconnected Controls

System	Distance
Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-4	16.36467948
Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-7	17.73475358
Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-15	18.97209608
Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-52	21.46549739
Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-53	22.36463185
Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-6	22.72296213

Furthest Control: 22.723 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Vocovii	23.671	15.964	Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-17;	Yes

And this time there's only one possible attack, which has a single source system, which is already at 51% progress. It seems highly unlikely that it will actually happen.

Code:

-- Recaptures above (2 if confirmed, probability otherwise; exhausts below at exactly 1)
-- Cocijo