Are We Sure it's Over?

I've been hearing a lot of things like "As the Thargoid War comes to a close," and "...over by Christmas," We're facing a strong, smart, determined, and implacably hostile enemy--do we really expect them to not come up with some way to counter-strike as we work to take down their motherships?
 
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I've been hearing a lot of things like "As the Thargoid War comes to a close," and "...over by Christmas,"We're facing a strong, smart, determined, and implacably hostile enemy--do we really expect them to not come up with some way to counter-strike as we work to take down their motherships?
So far they seem pretty chill about it. The question of what the Titans really hoped to achieve remains open, not that I expect it to be answered with GalNet dormant. I think all the Titans will fall, maybe the last one retreats to leave things open-ended, and we return to the status quo of ocassional attacks in Thargoid territority.
 
-do we really expect them to not come up with some way to counter-strike as we work to take down their motherships?
Yes, we do.
Unlike the RL "over by Christmas", the game is scripted by its developers, and they probably wish to get this chapter closed in readiness for the next one, PP 2.0.

It was never really a war, anyway, otherwise half of the bubble would be burning under caustic goo as the Thargoids are so advanced over us that they should have been destroying all in their path.

Of course, it is a game, and CMDRs are immortal (unlike in RL war!) and able to single-handedly eliminate the largest of interceptors in a starter ship, if they have the skill...
 
It was never really a war, anyway, otherwise half of the bubble would be burning under caustic goo as the Thargoids are so advanced over us that they should have been destroying all in their path.
And that's exactly what happened 2020 and 2021. The Thargoids were surging the bubble, and there was no stopping them. Systems were newly assaulted and stations burned quicker than they could be freed and repaired. This is how that looked by the end:
1716966687161.png

I was seriously considering packing up and evacuating to Colonia back then. Then it simply stopped, stations were being repaired, and the war was mostly dormant until Salvation and the Titans.
 
I've been hearing a lot of things like "As the Thargoid War comes to a close," and "...over by Christmas," We're facing a strong, smart, determined, and implacably hostile enemy--do we really expect them to not come up with some way to counter-strike as we work to take down their motherships?
Estimates of how long it will take are always on the basis that the current rules continue, certainly.

Given that Update 18.06 turned the remaining four Titans in terms of the difficulty of clearing their last 20 or so systems from "extremely difficult, perhaps impossible" to "possibly easier than the ones that have already been done" as well as introducing other pro-human balance changes ... it doesn't look like Frontier are wanting the Thargoids to hang around, or for it to be necessary to come up with complex multi-month strategies to defeat each remaining Titan.

It'll take a couple of weeks to make new estimates but if there's some twist it might equally come after the eighth Titan is defeated.

the Thargoids are so advanced over us
In many respects, undoubtedly. But they are so far as we know internally unified and haven't fought a major military conflict for millions of years since their war with the Guardians. Humanity, on the other hand, is basically defined by its constant state of internal conflict. That our military and weapons technology is largely superior to theirs might make sense in that context: they started the war with a few powerful tricks, but once they were countered (by a military-industrial complex continually developing new weapons and countermeasures against itself anyway) they're essentially trying to fight the war with converted freighters and mining vessels and it's going about as well for them as you'd expect.
 
So far they seem pretty chill about it. The question of what the Titans really hoped to achieve remains open, not that I expect it to be answered with GalNet dormant. I think all the Titans will fall, maybe the last one retreats to leave things open-ended, and we return to the status quo of ocassional attacks in Thargoid territority.
Or may be we'll have Guardians...
 
This is how that looked by the end:
So, nothing really?
Out of what, 30,000 inhabited systems in the bubble?
I was seriously considering packing up and evacuating to Colonia back then.
I was always surprised that Colonia only had aggressive PMFs to deal with rather than real invaders.
Then it simply stopped, stations were being repaired, and the war was mostly dormant until Salvation and the Titans.
And it will stop again soon, and the bubble will continue on as if nothing ever happened.
In many respects, undoubtedly. But they are so far as we know internally unified and haven't fought a major military conflict for millions of years since their war with the Guardians. Humanity, on the other hand, is basically defined by its constant state of internal conflict. That our military and weapons technology is largely superior to theirs might make sense in that context: they started the war with a few powerful tricks, but once they were countered (by a military-industrial complex continually developing new weapons and countermeasures against itself anyway) they're essentially trying to fight the war with converted freighters and mining vessels and it's going about as well for them as you'd expect.
A reasonable theory...
So they were never a threat after all, against superior forces of a handful (in comparison) of humans!
 
And that's exactly what happened 2020 and 2021. The Thargoids were surging the bubble, and there was no stopping them. Systems were newly assaulted and stations burned quicker than they could be freed and repaired. This is how that looked by the end:
View attachment 394021
I was seriously considering packing up and evacuating to Colonia back then. Then it simply stopped, stations were being repaired, and the war was mostly dormant until Salvation and the Titans.
You sure about those dates? I thought the Bubble incursion was before the Fleet Carriers.
 
And that's exactly what happened 2020 and 2021. The Thargoids were surging the bubble, and there was no stopping them. Systems were newly assaulted and stations burned quicker than they could be freed and repaired. This is how that looked by the end:
Which looks very bad in terms of the number of marks on the map and how spread out they are, but in practice only represented:
- 6-12 systems under active Thargoid attack at any time (recent weeks 20-25 inhabited, peak for this conflict around 80 inhabited)
- even in systems under active Thargoid attack, no risk to shipping outside AXCZs and signal sources.
- no systems under full Thargoid control (currently 100 formerly inhabited, peak around 180 formerly inhabited)
- around 100 systems with a (usually single) damaged orbital station needing repairs and otherwise fully operational, which could have been cleared considerably faster than the Thargoids were damaging them had players wanted to (based on trade CG hauling rates)

At the level of opposition the Thargoids were receiving in those early skirmishes it would have taken them multiple centuries just to damage all of the bubble's orbital stations. The current war exceeded its numbers of stations lost in the first four weeks alone - and at the peak of the Thargoid advance had the potential to wipe out the bubble in just 10-20 years [1] despite opposition.

The difference this time is that the damage is more obviously limited to a few spheres of fringe systems, rather than hitting unimportant systems across the bubble (and a few unsuccessful attacks on more important ones)

I thought the Bubble incursion was before the Fleet Carriers.
Yes, mostly during 2018 and 2019.


[1] As always, the bubble remains far too big to tell this sort of story well, but a couple of years of the Thargoids advancing at that rate would have made a very noticeable difference to its shape even if most of it did survive.
 
So they were never a threat after all, against superior forces of a handful (in comparison) of humans!

It's very likely that as far as the Thargoids are concerned they were still fighting Guardians in their thinking and never managed to adapt to human tactics and psychology, that's not an unusual scifi trope, ancient civilisation so set in it's ways it can't adapt to new enemies.....I am hoping the next part of the Thargoid saga is the opening of the permit locked zones, PP to my mind is just another adjustment of human society and certainly not part of the ongoing conflict, more to come I expect.
 
When Arthur first talked about taking down the Titans (and how the reward decal would scale with each one) he did stress uncertainty in regards to getting eight. Now it's entirely possible that was simply a question of whether the community would be able to do it given the perceived difficulty of the task. Then again, perhaps he knew something we don’t about what would happen when only one or two were left?
 
I really hope that they manage to keep the Thargoid conflict alive in some manner after this phase is done. Whether we kill all eight Titans, or whether some retreat, I'd still like the possibility to use the ships and tactics I've been learning throughout. It'd seem to be an awful waste if all this gameplay just fell out of the game.

With PP2.0 coming, and seemingly being inspired by the work done with the Titans I can see Thargoids continuing to be a presence within that system, either a occasional skirmishes or something larger and more pervasive.
 
I really hope that they manage to keep the Thargoid conflict alive in some manner after this phase is done. Whether we kill all eight Titans, or whether some retreat, I'd still like the possibility to use the ships and tactics I've been learning throughout. It'd seem to be an awful waste if all this gameplay just fell out of the game.
Apart from anything else I think it's widly agreed that the single best example of combined ship/srv/on-foot Odyssey gameplay (which even former dev Tom Kewell wanted to see more of) is at the active spire sites so losing that really would be something of a tragedy.
 
When Arthur first talked about taking down the Titans (and how the reward decal would scale with each one) he did stress uncertainty in regards to getting eight. Now it's entirely possible that was simply a question of whether the community would be able to do it given the perceived difficulty of the task. Then again, perhaps he knew something we don’t about what would happen when only one or two were left?
I'm not certain we'll all still be awake by then. :sleep::p
 
That our military and weapons technology is largely superior to theirs might make sense in that context
Military side/strategies maybe, but technology?

The only reason we’ve been able to hold much of a candle to it is because of the magical Guardian reverse-engineering that occasionally pops up every once in a while. Actual self-developed human weaponry has barely seen any development, and it would’ve been quite a while until anything better than our current peashooters came out of that. Try those against a Hydra or Medusa and you’ll know how inadequate they are.

Titans were also completely impervious to assault until the nanite magic that somehow isn’t affected by the AGF(no reason given) appeared.

The existence of said technology in Guardian relics being an established factor prior, but everything else about it doesn’t seem particularly believable. Like that the Thargoids are somehow completely oblivious to it despite collecting unclassified relics when prompted (encouraged with the threat of destruction) to drop them by neutral Interceptors, which are made in their own derelict structures. And those are not so derelict as to have lost their connection to the rest of the Thargoid “network”.

Plus the idea that they decided to fight a conflict on oddly human terms instead of with the capabilities they have available, and, mostly ineffectively, contest the same systems while leaving the orbital/surface infrastructure in a poor but still repairable state. Whatever stopped them from moving Titans a few light years inward every now and then, after thoroughly wrecking a region, when they trawled through empty space for months to reach human space… I doubt it’s capability and more to do with will*.

As for their inability to adapt to humans…
It's very likely that as far as the Thargoids are concerned they were still fighting Guardians in their thinking and never managed to adapt to human tactics and psychology,
… in conjunction with my response to this, the Scythes could be seen as one contrary example to that idea, because those of us who actually have functioning brains without sociopathic tendencies, unlike some of our leaders in the Bubble - right, Hudson? - probably don’t find the act of those abductions particularly enjoyable or approvable(?). A psychological effect more than one of showing brute military force.

Of course, then Aegis decided they’d done enough to rescue people and just sent the rest of them to the scrap heap with the Titans. So that’s not something I could use as an argument further.

*I could also just be giving the writers too much credit here by assuming they have the Thargoids deliberately holding back in what they could be doing, and instead conforming to a “traditional” style of assault for no obvious reason(to our monke brains), as a test of sorts.

What for? Well, only the Queens know. And I don’t think they’re too inclined to tell, unless they come out and throw a sign at Seo saying “Good job blasting our Titans that we put out there as target practice for you, we needed a bit of war warmup”.

As it is, the story is on ice because of a - presumed - variety of reasons but because the sacred Powerplay rework clearly cannot be delayed, apparently, the Titans are just getting blown up unceremoniously, Aegis has stopped bothering with the research it said was core to its new iteration, humans still celebrate and think everything’s going to be fine with nobody looking at the past history.

If they wanted to mess with us for a bit because mecha-Salvation is bringing some Constructs for company, I feel like there’d have been better ways to achieve that instead of throwing eight Titans under the bus. Can’t really see what that is supposed to achieve.
 
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I doubt it’s capability and more to do with will
It has certainly become increasingly unclear as the war has progressed what the Thargoids could possibly have been trying to achieve when they started the Titans on their journey. And with both sides having access to essentially infinite resources the impact of the individual battles is inevitably arbitrary anyway.

but because the sacred Powerplay rework clearly cannot be delayed
In fairness, it's already going to be around 12-18 months late on their original plans for releasing it. I'd want to get it over with and released by now too...
 
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