BGS Puzzle (?)

[Kryxix]

OK, today's exercise here to reveal what happened in this system.



The conflict winner faction's exit inf level is not ~46% as its suspected, from 42.7% - instead it lost to 38% (from a conflict where inf levels are locked)
The conflict loser faction's exit inf level decreased with -11.2% from 42.7% to 31.5%
Another faction (the "the green" ones) what was on 3.7% level increased with +16.9%, to 20.6%, in one day(!), only from missions (as they have no stations in the system, so cant sell for profit or charts, bounties are not working as this faction is not present in any other systems). So the only way from missions.

There were no special states to modify inf levels (like IF, Public Holiday, Natural Disaster, etc.).
There were no Retreat state in the system, nor expansion tax for any factions.

I cant get it, probably somebody can explain whats happened here.
(Inara link here, but inf levels will change with the next tick so its better to use the screenshot).

INARA

The community site for Elite: Dangerous, Starfield with the game databases, information, gaming news and other handy content...

inara.cz

 

[Kryxix]

A screenshot for those, who says "never use Inara, its unreliable". Ingame system map is telling the same.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

Inara tends to be fine for recent stuff, but it discards a lot of the history. So long as it's the last week or so it'll be as good as any 3rd-party tool and its updates. Further back than that I'd use elitebgs.app for the bubble.


Changes in influence from a clean +4/-4 split on conflict end are fairly normal - and are generally downwards, because the other factions can gain points and the conflicted ones can't, going into the final calculation. Influence isn't locked on the recovery day for the conflict. So a big push for the Democrats on the final day would be expected to drag the conflict pair down a bit.

There's a bunch of settlements and installations listed on EDDB in the system, with no ownership info - does the faction own any of them, because if so that's a jurisdiction and a potential (though not entirely convenient) bounty hunting source. If not, still possible with a KWS and a lot of patience...

I'm not sure how negative transactions apply on the recovery day of a conflict, but I'd guess that they do something because that was a very large swing for the population otherwise. If they'd gained about half that it would have been less surprising.

 

[goemon]

• is the list of installations/settlements on inara up to date?
• if it is: the orbital installations will give United Ao Qin bounties, and fiishing scenarios around them will provide inf boosts as well.
• system population says 12% max inf gain.
• if they have gained by a lot of missions, bounties + inf boost from installations, let's give them 8 points of 12, they are up from 2,7 to 10 after that.
• maybe some type of mission hurting the stronger factions? Kill xyz and such?
• all other small factions have gained as well - for me that speaks for a lot of applied -inf actions. what does the crime report say?
• both stations of the Buurian Proctectorate have Black markets - massive smuggling additionally?

so generally i'd say, it is possible - but it reads as a rather unique random event in such a huge population system - or a coordinated attack. "paranoia comes with the territory".

how much traffic do you usually get in that system?

 

[goemon]

I'm not sure how negative transactions apply on the recovery day of a conflict, but I'd guess that they do something

the state resolves first, and action effects apply afterwards... or it "should" at least work like that. so generally it is possible to, for exampel, trade on the last tick of war and gain influence after tick from it. but it's a kind of hit and miss thingy. it does not work always. we have some experience of it with both smuggling and trading (to reduce or widen the gap, depending on whether we want to trigger a second conflict).
general -inf actions, which are working during the conflict type, do work consistently.

 

[Kryxix]

• all other small factions have gained as well - for me that speaks for a lot of applied -inf actions. what does the crime report say?
  - Crime reports says 6-7M, the value seems so small for such an increase with the population.
• both stations of the Buurian Proctectorate have Black markets - massive smuggling additionally?
  - main station opened the blackmarket only after the takeover, so the only blackmarket worked that time is the dockable planetary Military silo.
  
  All undockable space installations (3) and the planetary undockables (2) both are the property of the "green" faction, checked manually. Its possible to make bounties there, but station report about bounties shows only the 60M what the conflict winner bound in from another system and turned in here.

So no bounties, no charts, no market profit, no crimes. Only left are: missions, and that planetary blackmarket. Traffic reports consist of the usual combat ships (CRV, Anaconda, FDL, Mamba, Krait2, etc), with some Krait Phantoms and DiaX ships. If its the blackmarket, then what were sold in so tiny amounts what can make so big increase in influence with such a population?

Still no "comforting" answers.

 

[goemon]

• all other small factions have gained as well - for me that speaks for a lot of applied -inf actions. what does the crime report say?
  - Crime reports says 6-7M, the value seems so small for such an increase with the population.
• both stations of the Buurian Proctectorate have Black markets - massive smuggling additionally?
  - main station opened the blackmarket only after the takeover, so the only blackmarket worked that time is the dockable planetary Military silo.
  
  All undockable space installations (3) and the planetary undockables (2) both are the property of the "green" faction, checked manually. Its possible to make bounties there, but station report about bounties shows only the 60M what the conflict winner bound in from another system and turned in here.

So no bounties, no charts, no market profit, no crimes. Only left are: missions, and that planetary blackmarket. Traffic reports consist of the usual combat ships (CRV, Anaconda, FDL, Mamba, Krait2, etc), with some Krait Phantoms and DiaX ships. If its the blackmarket, then what were sold in so tiny amounts what can make so big increase in influence with such a population?

Still no "comforting" answers.

the assumption, that it is "harder" to move influence in a large population system is wrong for trade. while influence does not move that much in larger population system, actions are as effective until cap. for trade you can read into it here, figure 6.: https://forums.frontier.co.uk/threads/trading-for-influence-ii-fc-update.555082/ a single trade action is for exampel ~30% more effective in a 5,8 mio population system compared to a 45k population system if remapped to the different max influence change. or to put it differently: you need ~30% less trade to hit the cap 8which is considerable smaller). you just gonna hit the cap earlier in a large popultion system.
that might be (i suspect so) the case not only for trade.

6-7 mio in crimes is rather massive, if that has been racked up by shooting clean ships. i today shot an npc exidentially and got a 5300 cr bountie.6-7 mio would be600 ships ... (i'm pretty sure somebody else will know more about it).

 

[Kryxix]

"6-7 mio in crimes is rather massive, if that has been racked up by shooting clean ships. i today shot an npc exidentially and got a 5300 cr bountie.6-7 mio would be600 ships ... (i'm pretty sure somebody else will know more about it)."

The crimes against the system security ships committed by the winner side faction of the conflict would decrease the influence of the controller faction, who was the loser side of the conflict. But how it can effect only a third faction so much, and why its decreased the winner faction's influence (who make the crimes)?

So we are still standing in one place. No bounties for other faction than the winner side. No chart tradings. No market profits. Blackmarket is only available on a small almost-no-economics planetary outpost, but no big hauler ships in the traffic reports - alas BMing would affect all other factions outside of the winner, and still only one faction got the huge boost. Crimes against the controller ships would effect only the controller negatively, and the others positively, so the winner side would gain a benefit from - but its decreased.

Influence increasing scenarios at the non-dockable installations seems to be a good idea (if they spawn so fast,and dont need to wait too much), but where are the bounties? And does the inf comes from a scenario is so high to boost a faction such, from 3.7% to 20.6% in only one day (if attackers at the installations was randomly chosen by the AI, from the two factions taking part from the conflicts)?
That would be interesting!

 

[goemon]

"6-7 mio in crimes is rather massive, if that has been racked up by shooting clean ships. i today shot an npc exidentially and got a 5300 cr bountie.6-7 mio would be600 ships ... (i'm pretty sure somebody else will know more about it)."

The crimes against the system security ships committed by the winner side faction of the conflict would decrease the influence of the controller faction, who was the loser side of the conflict. But how it can effect only a third faction so much, and why its decreased the winner faction's influence (who make the crimes)?

So we are still standing in one place. No bounties for other faction than the winner side. No chart tradings. No market profits. Blackmarket is only available on a small almost-no-economics planetary outpost, but no big hauler ships in the traffic reports - alas BMing would affect all other factions outside of the winner, and still only one faction got the huge boost. Crimes against the controller ships would effect only the controller negatively, and the others positively, so the winner side would gain a benefit from - but its decreased.

Influence increasing scenarios at the non-dockable installations seems to be a good idea (if they spawn so fast,and dont need to wait too much), but where are the bounties? And does the inf comes from a scenario is so high to boost a faction such, from 3.7% to 20.6% in only one day (if attackers at the installations was randomly chosen by the AI, from the two factions taking part from the conflicts)?
That would be interesting!

killing ships in conflictzones is no crime. to rack up that many crimes, somebody has to kill clean ships outside of conflictzones (or do other crimes).

 

[Just Paul]

So we are still standing in one place. No bounties for other faction than the winner side. No chart tradings. No market profits. Blackmarket is only available on a small almost-no-economics planetary outpost, but no big hauler ships in the traffic reports - alas BMing would affect all other factions outside of the winner, and still only one faction got the huge boost. Crimes against the controller ships would effect only the controller negatively, and the others positively, so the winner side would gain a benefit from - but its decreased.

BM trade if accompanied by pos actions for 1 factions looks like that. Most of the inf drained with the BM sales goes to the faction with pos inputs. Just a few missions are enough for that.

What missions for a "free" faction can do at the last day of a war? The almost 10% jumps of The Nameless was due to our opposition in another system running rep missions in this system to stay out of hostile. Sprinkle in some neg actions and you can have big jumps of factions not locked in a conflict, there were none in this example.

Earth Expeditionary Fleet (Eol Prou TD-S d4-60) - History

This looks like deliberate and it's either a test or an attack. The next days should show which one it is.

 

[Kryxix]

killing ships in conflictzones is no crime. to rack up that many crimes, somebody has to kill clean ships outside of conflictzones (or do other crimes).

I know, the winner faction killed clean system security ships in the system outside of CZs, because players ranks decreased to hostile and system ships constantly interdicted them.

Then again the Buur Pit is accused with Frontier helped them out, because they lost the war, and FDev made an unusual and otherwise impossible intervention to save the day.

 

[Just Paul]

I know, the winner faction killed clean system security ships in the system outside of CZs, because players ranks decreased to hostile and system ships constantly interdicted them.

You lose rep with the opposing faction then you win a CZ. Don't need to kill anybody outside of the CZ to go from ally to hostile during a war.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

- Crime reports says 6-7M, the value seems so small for such an increase with the population.

killing ships in conflictzones is no crime. to rack up that many crimes, somebody has to kill clean ships outside of conflictzones (or do other crimes).

Remember that NPC crimes show up on the crimes report too.

In most systems the crimes report is a better measure of "NPC bounties collected" (and the bounties report "NPC bounties handed in") than of any NPC crimes.
6-7M is 7 NPC Anacondas, or a short RES session for one player - that's almost irrelevant.

 

[goemon]

note: imho we are not standing at

Remember that NPC crimes show up on the crimes report too.

In most systems the crimes report is a better measure of "NPC bounties collected" (and the bounties report "NPC bounties handed in") than of any NPC crimes.
6-7M is 7 NPC Anacondas, or a short RES session for one player - that's almost irrelevant.

i'm not sure, how the current mechanic is.
it used to be, that cr of all wanted ships spawned got added as bounties issued.
this is not the case anymore.
i guess, ships need to be scanned/resolved for that to happen?
for exampel the station i'm currently sitting at has no crimes report at all, despite mission npc coming for me (whie sitting at the station).

as said - the numbers brought up here look strange, but they could be somewhat explained by above pointers (installations and crimes). negative influence actions are just likely by the other factions gains. planetary settlement attacks by misions could be another case. failing missions...

it might be (I'm not going to throw all factions yesterday numbers in a cross-faction gains-and-losses calculator to check it) fully down to "running misions for all other factions" though, but in that case i'd expect the smaller factions gaining more...

I'd be interested to read todays numbers.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

i guess, ships need to be scanned/resolved for that to happen?

They need to be shot down, as far as I can tell.

I'd be interested to read todays numbers.

Definitely - someone is certainly up to something there.

 

[Jmanis]

On bounty values, can't you still take, say, a "Deliver 5000 Palladium" wing mission, abandon it, cop a 400m+ fine, and then shoot on a cop and have that convert to a bounty?

 

[goemon]

On bounty values, can't you still take, say, a "Deliver 5000 Palladium" wing mission, abandon it, cop a 400m+ fine, and then shoot on a cop and have that convert to a bounty?

yes, you can. fines are still converted to bounties (and show up in the bountie report), if you commit a crime (but that does not lead to a larger negative influence effect).

 

[Jmanis]

yes, you can. fines are still converted to bounties (and show up in the bountie report), if you commit a crime (but that does not lead to a larger negative influence effect).

ofc... just saying that could stunt any measurements of player activity based on the bounty board.

 

[goemon]

ofc... just saying that could stunt any measurements of player activity based on the bounty board.

great idea for psychological warfare

 

[Just Paul]

You can also go the other way and ram the npc's until they explode. Only gives a 5k bounty per pop.