Seems to be trending towards Torval losing this.
Caine-Massey are certainly obtaining a bit more of a lead in tonnage, and currently have a higher number of supporters too.
That said ... at this time in a typical CG I'd expect about 10% of the total work to be done. So multiply out and you'd expect a winning margin of about 20,000 tonnes on the current trend.
It'd just take one extra Torval supporter who has been quietly filling up their FC in the early stages to reverse that lead, so - while the numerical position suggests that it might be more likely that that extra supporter is Caine-Massey's - I think it's too early to call it for them so far.
Incidentally, Torval is technically offering a marginally superior reward here - both sides are offering discounted mining gear on the same scale, but the Pride of Bitterwood
stocks a much greater variety of mining gear than Smith Port does. Best you'd get at Smith Port is money off the sub-surface launcher at 380k, while the PoB stocks [1] 2A refineries at just over 1M and 7C Prospectors at 1.7M. I don't expect this difference to be critical to the final outcome, though ...
[1] Actually, I was surprised how little mining gear the PoB actually has - no refineries above size 2, no turreted mining weapons, no A-rated prospectors, no collector limpets at all. For a mining-themed megaship it's a bit disappointing.