Powerplay Cycle 37 Commentary (without the commentary)

[fergal]

Cycle 36

The raw data for cycle 37 preparations has still not been released.
The file is incorrect and from the very start of cycle 38, but since cycle 37 has already ended, I guess we won't be getting this data.

This will be shorter than usual, since the cycle has ended there really isn't any need for my predictions (or I could be extremely accurate with them)

Fortification and Expansion

Above are the charts for just Fortification and Expansion, because of the missing preparation.

ALD and Hudson both had expansions, so dominated the total merits.

Winters, Delaine and Patreus all put in above average (for them) merits into their preparations, about 200000 for winters, 95000 for Delaine and 70000 for Patreus.
Antal put in around 30000, but I don't have approximate values for any other power, so haven't used them on a chart.

Aisling probably did a massive amount of merits in preparation as usual, and I have no idea what Mahon might have put in, but I know they will have a record of it.

Although not shown, Delaine put more effective merits into Preparation than Fortification.

On the effective merits chart, Aisling would probably be number 1 if preparation was included, but using the know merits, there wasn't much between ALD, Hudson and Aisling.

Winters continued being in the number 4 position, and Antal continued putting in more merits than the bottom 3.

Above is an estimate of the total preparations, ALD was in Turmoil and Mahon had low CC, so both couldn't prepare.
The Hudson and Aisling numbers are just a guess and could be very wrong.

Opposition

Hudson had a large 1.4 million in opposition, most of it in his expansion, which was successfully stopped, presumably by mostly ALD players.
The end totals were 1649577 vs 767870, one of the biggest expansions battles, and one of the few Hudson or ALD expansions that have directly failed, not failed due to Turmoil.

ALD had a high amount of undermining, due to her having 3 profitable systems on the chopping block, but also using the opportunity to get some of their bad systems undermined so they could be lost the next week.

Mahon had his usual 1 million in undermining, and Delaine and Winters had a high to medium amount of total undermining.

On the effective chart, Hudson and ALD stand out far above everyone else.
84% of the effective merits needed to undermine all of ALDs systems (736990 out of a possible 872786) was reached.

Hudson, Mahon, Delaine and Winters had what would be a high amount of effective undermining, but ALD just had a massive amount, dwarfing everyone else.

Sirius was in the middle as usual, and the other 4 powers were barely opposed.

Speculation and Commentary

As mentioned at the top, the cycle has already ended, so no real need for predictions.
The only thing I will mention was ALDs drop to be equal with Antal on 43%, which basically put her in the bottom 3.

Although there is no collapse mechanism, and the manual states a collapse when a power is in the bottom 3 and doesn't expand, what happened to ALD represents what a real collapse would look like.
Much of this is due to the actions of her own players trying to move into a positive CC starting balance, but ALD is also a power that was too large, lost quite a few systems, and dropped down to the bottom.

ALD will have no problems winning expansions though, so no real danger of the Emperor being removed.

On a slight side note, having the Emperor be a Power seems a bit strange unless there is some mechanism for her to be replaced as Emperor by one of the other 3 Imperial Powers.
Some sort of Assassination CG if she is the bottom ranked Imperial power, but alas, nothing so cool on the drawing board yet.

 

[CMDR John Casey]

Thanks Ferg, it's always a pleasure to read your commentaries.

As a side note, I'd like to add that for the first time ever (since the beginning of Powerplay), Aisling Duval has more Control Systems than Arissa. It's quite a coincidence that this happened after a week in which the anti-slavery CG took place, but who knows - signs of modernization in the Imperial society? ;-)

 

[Martin Schou]

On a slight side note, having the Emperor be a Power seems a bit strange unless there is some mechanism for her to be replaced as Emperor by one of the other 3 Imperial Powers.
Some sort of Assassination CG if she is the bottom ranked Imperial power, but alas, nothing so cool on the drawing board yet.

I'm not sure it's any stranger than having the President of the Federation or the Prime Minister of the Alliance be a power.

 

[CMDR Byr Goefin]

Careful what you wish for, Kumo would have been long gone by that metric.

 

[Rubbernuke]

Great as always!

Just annoying that bugs have crept back in again.

 

[fergal]

Careful what you wish for, Kumo would have been long gone by that metric.

Which metric is that?
Lets see, in week 6, when ALD launched their attack on Delaine, the Kumo Crew had 18 Control Systems, and ALD had 57.

Now the Kumo Crew has 39 control systems and ALD has 60.

We have more than doubled in size, you have 3 more systems.

 

[fergal]

I'm not sure it's any stranger than having the President of the Federation or the Prime Minister of the Alliance be a power.

Somewhat, but as far as I know Mahon and Hudson could lose their position without dying.

If Winters is ranked above Hudson for a certain number of weeks, some sort of snap election should be called and she should be made the new President.
Hopefully with some sort of CG to determine the winner.

The Alliance is a strange one, from what little I know about them.
They are a loose affiliation of independent systems with no real centralized power, but Mahon is the most powerful person in the Galaxy, with no rival from the Alliance (according to the 10 Powers) so there is no alternative to take over being Prime Minister from him.

 

[Martin Schou]

The Alliance is a strange one, from what little I know about them.
They are a loose affiliation of independent systems with no real centralized power, but Mahon is the most powerful person in the Galaxy, with no rival from the Alliance (according to the 10 Powers) so there is no alternative to take over being Prime Minister from him.

I'm actually not sure - is this the 19th week at number 1 for Mahon?

The most powerful politician in the Galaxy and no one is willing to stand up and publicly challenge his position.

 

[CMDR Byr Goefin]

Which metric is that?
Lets see, in week 6, when ALD launched their attack on Delaine, the Kumo Crew had 18 Control Systems, and ALD had 57.

Now the Kumo Crew has 39 control systems and ALD has 60.

We have more than doubled in size, you have 3 more systems.

Although there is no collapse mechanism, and the manual states a collapse when a power is in the bottom 3 and doesn't expand, what happened to ALD represents what a real collapse would look like.

This is the metric you quoted.

You have been in the bottom three without expansions multiple times. Like when you were in turmoil. No expansions until this week.

That is what? 3 or 4 with no expansion? You should have collapsed.

We were not even in the bottom 3 last week, we were 4th, so your metric does not even apply for last week.

 

[fergal]

This is the metric you quoted.

You have been in the bottom three without expansions multiple times. Like when you were in turmoil. No expansions until this week.

That is what? 3 or 4 with no expansion? You should have collapsed.

We were not even in the bottom 3 last week, we were 4th, so your metric does not even apply for last week.

Torval went 7 weeks without an expansion, Patreus went 3 months without an expansion.
We were confident no collapse would happen when we got rid of those 3 systems, but it would have been better if we lost 4.

You were not 4th last week, I think you mean 4th last.
There are no decimal points or rounding involved with the weekly scores, they always have an average of exactly 55%.

Antal and ALD were both on 43%, thus equal 3rd last.
Maybe you would prefer to say ALD and Antal were equal 4th last?

I'm not even sure when the last time was ALD won an expansion, was it cycle 25 when you were on 77 systems?

ALD has been in a steady decline from its grand heights, just like the fall of the Roman Empire which it takes so much of its inspiration.

I don't think dropping down from 77 systems to 60 is a full collapse, 60 systems is still a very large amount, but whats happened to ALD over the past 3 months is as close to a collapse as we have seen in Power Play.

 

[CMDR Byr Goefin]

I'm not even sure when the last time was ALD won an expansion, was it cycle 25 when you were on 77 systems?

You are trying to hard. Who are you convincing? Me or you?

 

[Apos]

You are trying to hard. Who are you convincing? Me or you?

If Delaine is supposed to have collapsed, who will compensate for Patreus accumulation of at least 3 collapses so far then? If we go by the same standards that is...

 

[fergal]

You are trying to hard. Who are you convincing? Me or you?

I a already convinced, but you are still misunderstanding, I don't think ALD should have collapsed, I'm saying whats happened to them is the closest to what would be called a collapse.

Not even Aisling has dropped so far, shes just bounced around the same level for most of PP.

 

[Rubbernuke]

Collapse is impossible physically: if Utopia went back to 5 starting systems with its current playerbase it would have colossal amounts of CC and would be hoovering up (admittedly poor) systems in no time, as well as being invincible for many cycles.

I think collapse is just a judgement call from FD- if a power has little support, and is being hammered each week it would be flagged it was in danger. Delaine and Antal have been in the bottom two spots and have been very healthy, and Patreus and Torval often join us in the cave.

 

[PeachSlices]

I a already convinced, but you are still misunderstanding, I don't think ALD should have collapsed, I'm saying whats happened to them is the closest to what would be called a collapse.

Not even Aisling has dropped so far, shes just bounced around the same level for most of PP.

Refering to old metrics is pointless, the past happened, it doesnt happen that way now, so pointing fingers and saying "should" is not a standardised way of measuring the current state.

Having an opinion on what is "close to collapse" is odd, how close is "close"?

Is collapse a systemic loss metric, a profit metric, a ranking metric? I suspect none of these.

I would be much more inclined to surmise that lack of popularity in combination with low fortification/expansion activity would be the metric for initating collapse. Another condition would be that a replacement would be required, how do you measure the possible popularity of a minor faction without a pledged player base to look at directly?

 

[fergal]

Refering to old metrics is pointless, the past happened, it doesnt happen that way now, so pointing fingers and saying "should" is not a standardised way of measuring the current state.

Having on opinion on what is close to collapse is odd, and you have stated in your reports that SCRAP or "by their own players" is something you are aware of.

Is collapse a systemic loss metric, a profit metric, a ranking metric? I suspect none of these.

I would be much more inclined to surmise that lack of popularity in combination with low fortification/expansion activity would be the metric for initating collapse. Another condition would be that a replacement would be required, how do you measure the possible popularity of a minor faction without a pledged player base to look at directly?

The amount of systems controlled by a player minor faction would be used to determine who should be promoted to a power.

Antal started PP with 6 systems, so any player minor faction with 6 or more systems should be large enough, but the issue is these systems are probably exploited by an existing power, what mechanism will be used to determine who has control of these systems.

 

[Martin Schou]

The amount of systems controlled by a player minor faction would be used to determine who should be promoted to a power.

Antal started PP with 6 systems, so any player minor faction with 6 or more systems should be large enough, but the issue is these systems are probably exploited by an existing power, what mechanism will be used to determine who has control of these systems.

Well, that might be where Freedom Fighters could come in handy.

Suppose that you wanted to be a Freedom Fighter. You would have to pledge to a particular minor faction that is in control of a certain number of system (let's say 6 to follow Fergal's number), and you would have to fight to get those systems to not be exploited any more.

Then in order to avoid this being massively abused, being a Freedom Fighter wouldn't be a paid position. All it would do is allow you to start at a rating equivalent to how many systems you've helped liberate. So, if you've only helped liberate one, you start at rating one. If you helped liberate 6, you start at rating five.

 

[Sync Mercy]

Well collapse will only happen when FDev want to get rid of a power. Maybe we'll see Patreus got "collapsed" as he take his new responsabilities full time, to make place for some new power.