Thanks for the analysis here, Ian. Quick question: could the influx of new players/alt accounts with minimal contribution bring these numbers down?
As others have said, in theory yes. In practice it will probably just slow the rate of increase rather than actually bring the numbers down.
So for example if everyone just delivered at a continuation of their current rate and no-one new joined, the 50% threshold would end up at about 18,300 by the end.
For it to come in below the current 13,000 would therefore need enough extra people to join (and then deliver <13,000t) that the people
currently at about 9000t would be in the top 50%.
Actually modelling that would be a lot more complex than the back-of-envelope things I've been doing so far - as a minimum even under generous assumptions it would require another 1000 participants, more likely at least double that.
Hauling any more with your main account or alts that are already in the 50% bracket will raise it up
Unless they're
well clear of the 50% marker - say already in the top 25% - in which case as the CG is still likely to end by hitting the 70MT limit rather than on time, further hauling by someone securely above it will be taking away cargo that could have been delivered by someone around the 50% threshold to raise the threshold.
