I learned that with the previous CG, oops!I just contributed and was surprised to find that I could only sign up for one of the sides...
I guess it has been a very long time since I attempted to do that in a competitive CG, cos if I'd ever seen that restriction before, I'd forgotten.
(I chose Kaine, partly due to lower 75% threshold, partly due to better semiconductor supply nearby)
Elite Dangerous | Community Goals Reward Change
- Thread starter Paul_Crowther
- Start date
You're despicable.
Community goal indigestion is for the weak! Maybe next Alliance CG is for leathery eggs?
My eyes! My EYES!
I certainly don't give a hoot about which Figurehead is winning. Anyway now people will sign up for the loosing side so they can get into 75% more easily.
Weird, because my impression is that majority of people signed up after the weekend, when it was absolutely clear who's going to win (It was pretty obvious after few hours, but still). I was quite surprised at the numbers actually.
And as for rewards, I just think that additional rewards for the winning side should be global, not "material" (exception being PP merits and cosmetics, which are actually nice bonus, motivating and rewarding some kind of commitment to PP). Those additional material rewards for the winner will always more or less influence the result.
At time of writing the average tonnage delivered in the Mahon CG is 8128t/player, whereas the average delivered in the Kaine CG is 8230t/player.Anyway now people will sign up for the loosing side so they can get into 75% more easily.
If you want an easier job getting to 75% then the Mahon CG might still be the one. (Though the difference will almost certainly be <1 extra trip in a T-8, and anyone with a fleet large enough to benefit from having ten niche-build power distributors rather than five is going to have no trouble getting into the top 75% either way)
At the end of the first day it was 1356:433 (~3:1)
At the end of the second day (start of the weekend) it was 3515:1007 (~3.5:1)
By the end of the weekend (4th day) it was 7369:1841 (~4:1)
By the time of the announcement it was 9120:2253 (~4:1)
New signups since the announcement in this thread are 762 for Mahon, 255 for Kaine, which is back to the 3:1 ratio seen on the first day.
So we can hypothesise from this that the "correct" ratio for the CG in a fair fight would be a roughly 3:1 win for Mahon, but people joining the side which was already winning made it a 4:1 win.
Or in percentage terms: 75% back Mahon normally, but 80% back Mahon with an extra reward.
Which means that the number of Kaine -> Mahon defectors as a result of the reward is just 5% of participating CMDRs. (As noted above, the average hauling rates are near-identical for both CGs, so those 5% are likely distributed pretty evenly across the reward tiers)
Ozric
Volunteer Moderator
Not what the numbers show. Ian always explains things best though
So some extra rewards are OK, but not others. That's fine we all have a line somewhere, I just think if you're offering some then it matters not what they are.
question.
I am currently in the mahooooon cg. it still runs for another week.
I can now defect and then haul something like 3000 to Kane and qualify for 75% and gain double modules. Correct?
Yes I know I will basically lose out on the reward and the 3400 cargo I had hauled for Mahoomomomooo will be wasted. And Kane feels like a screeching karen... but she is at least has better morals than Moooham.
Whilst she probs won't win. Gods know I can't haul 80mil cargo in 7 days to close the gap. I nearly fell into a narcoleptic coma whilst livestreaming cargo hauling for the CG. I can at least have a BIT of moral highground... before I go back to shooting tourists in tourist settlements for Power Play merits.
I am currently in the mahooooon cg. it still runs for another week.
I can now defect and then haul something like 3000 to Kane and qualify for 75% and gain double modules. Correct?
Yes I know I will basically lose out on the reward and the 3400 cargo I had hauled for Mahoomomomooo will be wasted. And Kane feels like a screeching karen... but she is at least has better morals than Moooham.
Whilst she probs won't win. Gods know I can't haul 80mil cargo in 7 days to close the gap. I nearly fell into a narcoleptic coma whilst livestreaming cargo hauling for the CG. I can at least have a BIT of moral highground... before I go back to shooting tourists in tourist settlements for Power Play merits.
Yes you can, it is correct. Also moral high ground is subjective. I would stay on MH side for this CG, next time if u want little rp u can decide by yours opinion not gold trinkets.
And there you would be wrong. This is exactly what everyone in my squadron who were interested in the last two PP CGs at all did, me included.
Not deliberately, no. But most people don't sign up for the CG at the very first second it goes online. Most sign up in waves hours after it starts due to work (and other obligations) and timezones. That means the snowball starts rolling due to the imbalance from "early birds" and the positive feedback loop from the non-pledged (in this context anyone not pledged to Kaine or Mahon) people who only consider the rewards does its job. An initial small imbalance tends to grow bigger as more non-pledges sign up on the at first maybe-going-to-win side that then turns into probably-going-to-win side that then turns into absolutely-going-to-win side.
The best way to combat this would be to hide the contributor numbers and progress until both sides reach tier 1. But that would also need a "gentlemen's agreement" between 3rd party data aggregators like Inara to do the same to be truly effective (although hiding the numbers in-game would already reduce the signup biases significantly).
If I look at Inara statistics, 2.73% of players (that use Inara) are pledged to Kaine and 3.04% to Mahon. The natural imbalance between those two powers is not that big, and the huge imbalance we see in this CG is due to other factors.
Ozric
Volunteer Moderator
Well that's a shame
I'd suggest that there are other factors, such as those of us who hate Sirius in this case. But it does seem like the majority of people on the forum at least care about material rewards over anything else. Which is a shame.
That is slightly interesting, but also 53.84% aren't pledged to anyone. We have no real idea of the % of the player base that do Power Play, but given how incredibly guarded most of the hardcore pledgers are I'm not sure they'd be open on INARA about it.
It's hard to argue with you throwing numbers around
I appreciate it (I really do - you've become one of posters on this forum whose opinion I always treat with respect, even if I might have different view on things, knowing that your analytic approach is rather always based on facts), but...
but that's just math. It doesn't take into account that people act without assessing things so thoroughly (and even you admit that it's easier now to reach 75% when signing up with Mahon, which could explain why some still sign up there, not to mention that a lot of people probably are still not aware of the change
).If I were to act on my own flawed judgment in the first hour of this CG and wanted to back up the winner to get additional rewards, I would sign up with Mahon. Without analysing anything - just because of some vague feelings or more or less conscious idea of who has better chance and by just seeing that Mahon has 5 more contributors than Kaine. I would not begin seriously hauling before being sure after some time, but I would start there.
Those number also don't take into account that players on the Kaine side probably got pretty demotivated to haul more, since it was quite obvious early on they are not going to win - only payment is making it worth the work.
But anyway - as I said earlier, I'm not trying to say that the final outome would be dramatically different, but only that those rewards skewed the way it all played out and now the FDev change doesn't mean much, because it's too late for people who basically don't care who wins to switch sides just for the sake of it.
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If I may ask, do you happen to have hourly numbers for the first 24 hours? It'd be interesting to see how the imbalance developed over the start of the CG. Of course, to draw definite conclusions of whys and hows we'd also need data like geographic distribution of Kaine and Mahon pledges (a large early hours imbalance can easily develop if a lot more of Mahon pledges are in Europe than Kaine pledges, for example) and probably more that I can't come up with at the top of my head.
Yes, and those, and all others not pledged to neither Kaine nor Mahon, are the "wildcards" who are likely to follow the money, so to speak, signing up for the side that has the numbers advantage to have a better chance to get the shinies
Indubitably
But I'd wager that percentually it would be similar for both Kaine and Mahon, so wouldn't massively skew the numbers.
And those who support Sirius. I’m sure they [in lore Sirius] see/would see a chance in weaseling their way back in to some extent, with how much of a corporate apologist Mahon seems to have become over time.
I didn't sign up until yesterday. My autistic mind that doesn't have to think about the numbers or actually watch youtube videos to run the numbers or get the idea indicated strongly to go with the underdog, after I learned here that both sides get the PD reward, and to stay in top 25% more comfortably for the extra payout. Prettty certain the 6A PD is going to be essential for the PCII, and much better than a regular engineered one looking at the specs. The PCII is going to need lot's of boosting because it's bulky and likely to be the slowest ship in the whole game, and reasonable shields to take bumps, but no weapons. the 4A PD might be OK in my Cobra V, which also doesn't have weapons but likes continued boosting.
Ozric
Volunteer Moderator
I didn't look at the numbers at first. Reading the back story and some of the posts supporting Kaine...I intended to join the Kaine side early on. I wanted 2 of the reward items so when I got to the area to sign up...I saw the initial numbers and switched to the Mahon side. This was near the start of the campaign so the gap was only just starting to widen . I think it's pretty clear that as the gap widened...more and more chose based on which side was ahead. Changing the rules this late...really only helps the hard core Kaine folks....but also has the effect, in my opinion, of enforcing the idea that the programmers behind the game can be a bit hap hazard. Next time we have a CG like this I'll just work on filling the carriers before committing