Elite Dangerous data : is the game dying or growing ?

Status
Thread Closed: Not open for further replies.

XYZ

XYZ
Game sales data :
22 April 2015 - 500.000 units sold (only PC)
31 August 2015 - 825,000 units sold (PC,Mac,Xbox)

Total unit sold grow by 65 %.


Steam stats:

Month - Avg. Players
April 2015 - 4,471.1
August 2015- 3,917.6
Avg. players number down by 12.4 %.

http://steamcharts.com/app/359320

We all know that 70-80 % of game slaes is in the first year since realase. So as current player base deacy we will see no new players around to replace them. If FD dont wake up and still will be crafting this grinding machine that Elite Dangerous is, open play will be pointless as option in menu ;).

Edit :

I dont expect that ED will ever reach 2 millions unit sold when metacritic users score is 6.5/10 now and going down. http://www.metacritic.com/game/pc/elite-dangerous/user-reviews?sort-by=date&num_items=100


Edit 2 :

Since its clear that many ppl dont get what i have in mind posting this numbers of total sales and active players i will put it simply (i agree that steam data isnt best indicator but it is only data we have) :

1. When some MMO total sales number goes up by 65 % in a 4 months you should expect increase in active players number.

2. If active players number goes down with total sales number goes up by 65 % that means players are going away from game faster than new one comes.

3. Keep in mind that 70-80% of game sales is in the first year after realase so there will be less and less new players in time.

4. Any known update (1.4 + 1.5 "ships") or expansion (Horizons) dont give content other than new goals to grinding and ways of grinding. If you carefull read the forum FD have no plans for adding MMO "social" mechanics or single player story line content.

5. We will have soon CQC and Horizons - so you will see drop in number of CMDRs that you meet in game - CQC people will play out of universe, Horizons - even in "open play" players will no be visible for you while you are in space ship somewhere in the same solar system.

6. So with decreasing numbers of CMDRs in open play that you can meet in game ED will in time become single player game with CGs as only places where you can see other CMDRs.

7. ED have no content for single player nor FD have plans for it.

8. "Dying" of ED has just started so many of you can not notice it.

9. FD have still a lot of time to do something with it but if they will continue to go current way ED will be dead when SC comes out (most people just dont have time to play 2 MMOs simultaneously).

10. This thread is not to start some hate war nor i am a hater of ED - just made a notice where this game is currently going and if FD will not make some changes in approach to ED we will see black hole here instead of game of dreams.

11. ... or i can be totally wrong :p
 
Last edited by a moderator:

noldunar

N
As long as they release the server side before they go dark, so that I can continue to enjoy the game for years to come as I have all previous Elites I couldnt care less.
 

Cmdr Andy B

Cmdr Andy B
i'm fairly certain that Month Avg. Players will decrease in August for all games as we have this thing called 'nice weather' when people tend to spend a lot of time in a place called 'Outside'. i'm not that familiar with 'Outside' myself but i have heard it said that the graphics are amazing even if it does lack a coherent storyline ;)

Edit: tnx for all the Rep's, i've had 15 for this post so far :D
 
Last edited:

Bomba Luigi

Bomba Luigi
I too once stopped playing for about a Month. Not EDs fault, witcher called and I am sure right now many are busy with MGS5.

And having a break here and there certainly is a good Idea.
 

XYZ

XYZ
Cmdr Andy B said:
i'm fairly certain that Month Avg. Players will decrease in August for all games as we have this thing called 'nice weather' when people tend to spend a lot of time in a place called 'Outside'. i'm not that familiar with 'Outside' myself but i have heard it said that the graphics are amazing even if it does lack a coherent storyline ;)
Click to expand...

Sadly it is not case of August in ED - look we have 23 of Sep. and for last 30 days stats are even worst : Avg Players = 3,293
 
Last edited:

Cyda

Cyda
Calm down a bit, you are going full Chicken little on us.

chicken-little.jpg

The game is not dying: in all games of this type (i.e. online games with no subscription & many planned expansions) players will often have time off to go play other things, I know I've gone off and played every big release as it came out, but I've always come back to Elite. You will get peaks and troughs in any player base numbers with the highest numbers around update & expansion release dates. This game isn't for everyone, some will buy it & find it isn't exactly their cup of tea but it has a strong community and big plans, so it has a steady player base who will keep coming back. I think once Horizons is release, and new players see they can land on planets, the player base number will likely peak to even higher numbers than we have seen previously.
 

Alex Brentnall

Alex Brentnall
This again, seriously? Does this not get discussed every few months?

Also did you not get the memo that this isn't a call of duty or Fifa game that releases a new version every year with a tiny bit of content change? This is meant to be a game that evolves each year.

In any case https://forums.frontier.co.uk/showthread.php?t=181386&highlight=finance
That would suggest they are investing heavily into their staff and other resources, hardly the action of a company with a "dying" game..

Edit: Recent drop in player numbers is probably due to 1.3 and 1.4 being rather niche updates. I expect a huge resurgence when 1.5 and horizons both hit together. If numbers continue to decrease as those updates hit I'd probably be a little more concerned.
 
Last edited:

hoppingdeth

hoppingdeth
Fallout 4 will no doubt cool the ED servers for a while, but I don't see any evidence of the game slowing in terms of other CMDRs when I'm playing it, and I play most days.
 

hunvagy

hunvagy
Oh, is it already time for the monthly edition of Elite is dying? Also steamcharts only shows that people who own Elite on steam are declining. Which would not be a surprise, given the locust like attitude most steam users seem to gravitate from one unfinished DayZ clone to the next. If that chart would include those playing on stand-alone clients, or if it would include more then a fraction of the 850000 copies sold, then it would be a valid metric.
 

EdzUp

EdzUp
ED is not dying its just that people have these things called real life which intrudes on it. For me its a term called LackOfPcicus which means me PC broke and I haven't had the funds to fix it yet.
 

Lobstris

Lobstris
Things will drop-off, spike up slightly as 1.4 gets released, drop-off again, spike up slightly as 1.5 gets released, drop-off again, spike-up massively when Horizons gets released, then... well it depends on sales of season 2 as to whether there's a season 3. I do think Frontier are heading towards the low end for their overall sales projections, unfortunately. Just not enough content in the initial release, the game has a reputation for being an MMO without the first two M's, and there'll be stiffer competition in the next year or so. A pity...
 

Cmdr Andy B

Cmdr Andy B
XYZ said:
Sadly it is not case of August in ED - look we have 23 of Sep. and for last 30 days stats are even worst : Avg Players = 3,293
Click to expand...

A beta comes out and less people are playing via the main client? wow what a surprise! could it be that they are spending their time playing the beta instead? i certainly haven't played the main game for more than a few hours since 1.4 dropped and i expect there are plenty of others doing the same.
 

Agony_Aunt

Agony_Aunt
The doom train is getting a bit old now. I feel the only appropriate response i can give at this point is...

[video=youtube;RQ5AFxzY-nM]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RQ5AFxzY-nM[/video]
 
Status
Thread Closed: Not open for further replies.
Back
Top Bottom