General / Off-Topic Frontier Share Price Drop

Anyone know why the Frontier Developments share price has dropped 40% today ?
  • Closing price 06/01/23: 999.00
  • Current price 09/01/23: 595.00 (-40.38%)
at time of writing.
Genuine question - kind of curious...
FDev.jpg
 
Shareholders got whiff of something we don't know yet?

A glitch in the matrix?

Hmm...no trading over the weekend, some something happened over the weekend to trigger it? Price started dropping as soon as the market opened.

Let's wait and see!
 
Ah, here we go:


FD lowered expectations for the year.

F1 Manager 2022 performed worse than expected.

So the usual panic selling going on.

Frontier still believes it can surpass the prior year's record revenue performance of £114.0m, particularly if one of its Foundry titles is a success, but said its revised expectation was to deliver revenue of "not less than £100.0m".

So last year was a record year, and they think there is a chance they can still do better than that... and yet, people sell.

Go figure. Perhaps confidence in FD's statements are not high.
 
Ah, here we go:


FD lowered expectations for the year.

F1 Manager 2022 performed worse than expected.

So the usual panic selling going on.



So last year was a record year, and they think there is a chance they can still do better than that... and yet, people sell.

Go figure. Perhaps confidence in FD's statements are not high.
I imagine too cost of living issues and games being luxuries factors into it- but I'd be interested to know if other game devs are seeing devaluations.
 
FDEV had a 40% drop back when JWE underperformed (2021) - but this drop following what looks like over a million shares being sold looks quite bad. Look at the last 3 months - but the dumping on the earnings warning really makes it hit a cliff.

fd 3mth.jpg


Hopefully it will bounce back - I see it is still being tipped for buying anyway.
 
It could be a good opportunity for DBOBE to buy some shares and increase his stake in his own (almost) company
 
This a market correction, profit taking. Happens all the time. Share value was diluted when more share were issued to raise revenue. If FD won't listen to the sentiment of the player base. It's 2023 not the 1980's lot's of high quality game about. There games are niche rather than mass market. DOBE has left the building and doesnt reallyt have any input into what happens at Frontier it would seem.
 
F1 manager being a miss must have been a big factor in this.
This kind of drops are usually a big holder dumping loads (all) its shares.

Still not a good time to buy Fdev it seems.

It is just a valuation. Not relevant day to day to most companies if profit is still being made. Of course more is always better. Certainly if you hold Fdev yourself or get partially paid in stocks
 
This a market correction, profit taking. Happens all the time. Share value was diluted when more share were issued to raise revenue. If FD won't listen to the sentiment of the player base. It's 2023 not the 1980's lot's of high quality game about. There games are niche rather than mass market. DOBE has left the building and doesnt reallyt have any input into what happens at Frontier it would seem.
Interesting, when did they issue new shares? I looked it up and couldn't find anything corresponding this drop but I'll admit I didn't look that hard.
 
I think ObsidianAnt puts it rather well. If FDEV management is trying to figure out why things have gotten this way they should look in the mirror.


FDEV is suffering from poor management. They don't need more games; they need to do a better job on the ones they've got. How many people who got burned on F1 Manager 2022 are going to buy the next one? Or any other FDEV game for that matter.
 
This a market correction, profit taking. Happens all the time. Share value was diluted when more share were issued to raise revenue. If FD won't listen to the sentiment of the player base. It's 2023 not the 1980's lot's of high quality game about. There games are niche rather than mass market. DOBE has left the building and doesnt reallyt have any input into what happens at Frontier it would seem.

There was no corresponding share / rights issue - it was the profit warning made on Monday morning caused a large volume of shares be offloaded - you can see the figure of 1.1million in the graphic I posted.

Financially the company is not in bad shape, it has good cash in hand, valuable products and projected profitability. The profit warning was for lower projected revenue following disappointing performance of the F1 product and disappointing seasonal sales.

 
The fact they’ve been doing it for so long means frontier are probably aware of their strategy and status to just be the kings of the bargain bin. Go for a non mainstream niche, buff the presentation, and only provide a skeleton. Literally all their games.

Guess it’s not working out so well in an inflationary environment.. people are buying headline games and just dismiss the skeletons as nice to have but not worth it.

While I still sound spiteful because I have bought many of their modern games, I just hope they do what they say and start maintaining / supporting existing titles to get themselves out of it. With changes to market cap suddenly elites crazies who who go away are looking more valuable than the cost of a full new game and ip? We can only hope.
 
Ah, here we go:


FD lowered expectations for the year.

F1 Manager 2022 performed worse than expected.

So the usual panic selling going on.



So last year was a record year, and they think there is a chance they can still do better than that... and yet, people sell.

Go figure. Perhaps confidence in FD's statements are not high.
I looked back few years, and found out they picked exactly today 2 years ago, at 3 300 000. Now they dropped to 514 000.
Doesn't look like they are bouncing back, they are at 5 year low now.
That thing with " no new games for 2024 " is what killing them atm it seems.
 
I looked back few years, and found out they picked exactly today 2 years ago, at 3 300 000. Now they dropped to 514 000.
Doesn't look like they are bouncing back, they are at 5 year low now.
That thing with " no new games for 2024 " is what killing them atm it seems.

Yeah, but since Foundry is seemingly doing so badly it probably makes sense for them to dump it rather than double down in the long run. Note it was about Foundry, i don't think they said they would be doing no new games at all in 2024.

That combined with poor sales of F1 Manager 2022, with the expectations that sets for F1 Manager 2023 was not going to increase investor confidence.

The thing i've noted with Foundry games is that they tend not to be bad ideas per se, but they just all seem to be missing something that will make them sell well.
 
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