How much decay?

Thanks to the work of Purrfect (cheers!) and based on current EDDN data, here’s a summary:
We’re seeing at least around 100M CPs decay this cycle through automatic undermining. If you add the estimated decay from roughly 2,500 systems that were last updated before the most recent weekly tick, the total rises to about 110M to 120M CPs.
That’s around 2.5 cycles’ worth of reinforcement just vanishing into thin air. We need better undermining options - not this.

 

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If you use population itself, this mainly just gives powers points based on where in the bubble they are (core powers like the Feds and Imps benefit, Kaine and Antal and Delaine out on the fringes drop massively). If you use log(population) - approximately the old Powerplay 1 CC measure - then barely anything changes from just the normal system count, and it's not worth making massive efforts to acquire a billion-pop system if you can grab two million-pop systems elsewhere without a fight. Some sort of "you get a big benefit from controlling this system" award might encourage competition over that system - see also the CG last week being responsible for six times the normal amount of undermining - but even then doesn't encourage fighting in general.
You didn't cover using a calculation similar to how System Architects get payment for their systems. Regardless, either of the changes above would still be a huge improvement over people creating 'poop stations' in empty star systems just to get more systems for Powerplay ranking. A billion-pop system with good infrastructure should be worth significantly more than two million-pop systems with poor infrastructure. It would reorient play towards systems that actually have value to the power, and stop the use of empty systems as the primary driver of Powerplay. When you don't have a massive expansion in the number of worlds worth controlling, and you value systems based on their resources and population, there will be more undermining because of a limited supply of valuable worlds. The only way undermining becomes valuable is if some systems are more valuable than others.

The advantage of this change is it doesn't take systems away from powers. It just changes the primary method of ranking - which as you stated does nothing by itself. It's just bragging rights...which, to be fair, is still important to many players.

Also, again very definitely not equal between the Powers. Looking at current control within 200 LY of Sol (the region where inter-power competition might occur anyway)
- Alliance: ~2500 systems
- Federation: ~6500 systems
- Empire: ~6000 systems
- Independent: ~23000 systems (getting on for twice as many as all superpowers put together)
Good for LYR and Grom, terrible for Mahon and Kaine, not as bad as it looks for the Empire because the Empire's BGS space and Power space were fairly well-aligned by Frontier to start with
It's easy enough to assign a weighting based on system control, where Alliance would get a higher multiplier to their Power standing based on having less systems, and the Independent systems would get less. You could also exclude Independent systems entirely from bonuses AND penalties for Superpower control. Federation and Empire are close enough that neither has a significant advantage or disadvantage.
 
You didn't cover using a calculation similar to how System Architects get payment for their systems.
I'd expect that to come out fairly similar to the log(population) distribution in general - with the occasional oddity here and there like Lave which has a huge population but hardly any stations - or systems with small populations but 50 Odyssey settlements being surprisingly valuable. Number of assets in a system varies over a much smaller range than the system population does, and the difference in architect score between a settlement and an Orbis isn't all that large.

Regardless, either of the changes above would still be a huge improvement over people creating 'poop stations' in empty star systems just to get more systems for Powerplay ranking. A billion-pop system with good infrastructure should be worth significantly more than two million-pop systems with poor infrastructure. It would reorient play towards systems that actually have value to the power, and stop the use of empty systems as the primary driver of Powerplay. When you don't have a massive expansion in the number of worlds worth controlling, and you value systems based on their resources and population, there will be more undermining because of a limited supply of valuable worlds. The only way undermining becomes valuable is if some systems are more valuable than others.
What's necessary for undermining to be valuable is for it to be easier to take an enemy system (limited to those of appropriate value if you like, though the more the supply is limited, the more likely it is that reinforcement also gets focused on turning them all into Strongholds if they're not already) than it is to create a new one. The original Powerplay managed that by confining the action to around 1000 total systems (between the fringes of the bubble not having enough CC to support occupation, and control systems auto-capturing a sphere around them) ... though also failed on making it practical to undermine systems.

Limiting the number of systems that count as valuable at all would help with that - although colonisation is also quite capable of creating large systems, and possibly for rather less effort than the Powerplay acquisition/fortification process itself is.

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Colonisation doesn't generate many systems in the > 100 million range, but other than that the distributions are fairly similar.

Focusing the fight on a smaller number of systems is definitely a good idea, but I think population is the wrong metric - high population systems are only in a place where they could reasonably be contested by two or more powers by coincidence, and a lot of them are already heavily reinforced (partly as a legacy of Powerplay 1) - fewer than 10% of pre-colonisation systems have a population over a billion, but almost a quarter of Strongholds do. Over half of billion-population systems are at least at Fortified strength already. Changing the metric without first making undermining a lot more practical would just give everyone some really obvious reinforcement targets to get the rest up to Stronghold too.
 
I'd expect that to come out fairly similar to the log(population) distribution in general - with the occasional oddity here and there like Lave which has a huge population but hardly any stations - or systems with small populations but 50 Odyssey settlements being surprisingly valuable. Number of assets in a system varies over a much smaller range than the system population does, and the difference in architect score between a settlement and an Orbis isn't all that large.


What's necessary for undermining to be valuable is for it to be easier to take an enemy system (limited to those of appropriate value if you like, though the more the supply is limited, the more likely it is that reinforcement also gets focused on turning them all into Strongholds if they're not already) than it is to create a new one. The original Powerplay managed that by confining the action to around 1000 total systems (between the fringes of the bubble not having enough CC to support occupation, and control systems auto-capturing a sphere around them) ... though also failed on making it practical to undermine systems.

Limiting the number of systems that count as valuable at all would help with that - although colonisation is also quite capable of creating large systems, and possibly for rather less effort than the Powerplay acquisition/fortification process itself is.

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Colonisation doesn't generate many systems in the > 100 million range, but other than that the distributions are fairly similar.

Focusing the fight on a smaller number of systems is definitely a good idea, but I think population is the wrong metric - high population systems are only in a place where they could reasonably be contested by two or more powers by coincidence, and a lot of them are already heavily reinforced (partly as a legacy of Powerplay 1) - fewer than 10% of pre-colonisation systems have a population over a billion, but almost a quarter of Strongholds do. Over half of billion-population systems are at least at Fortified strength already. Changing the metric without first making undermining a lot more practical would just give everyone some really obvious reinforcement targets to get the rest up to Stronghold too.
Well, I think they'd just need to bump up populations in some Kaine systems. She's the one who was "born" in PP2, so her placement of initial systems didn't have CC in mind, just # of systems. Other Powers had CC to fight for in PP1, so they were already fighting for population to some extent (though in spheres of it, rather than individual ones).
 
I'd expect that to come out fairly similar to the log(population) distribution in general - with the occasional oddity here and there like Lave which has a huge population but hardly any stations - or systems with small populations but 50 Odyssey settlements being surprisingly valuable. Number of assets in a system varies over a much smaller range than the system population does, and the difference in architect score between a settlement and an Orbis isn't all that large.
The difference is that it changes how Powerplay players approach System Colonization. Instead of colonizing with a single outpost or station (which can be done in a few hours with a coordinated group carrying supplies) and moving on to the next system, there is an incentive to build out the system further. That improves both Powerplay AND System Colonization. It also diminishes the incentive to colonize systems that only have a single build point.

What's necessary for undermining to be valuable is for it to be easier to take an enemy system (limited to those of appropriate value if you like, though the more the supply is limited, the more likely it is that reinforcement also gets focused on turning them all into Strongholds if they're not already) than it is to create a new one. The original Powerplay managed that by confining the action to around 1000 total systems (between the fringes of the bubble not having enough CC to support occupation, and control systems auto-capturing a sphere around them) ... though also failed on making it practical to undermine systems.
Changing undermining viability without also reducing the value of freshly-colonized systems is doomed to fail. I can't see an amount of improvement Frontier is willing to allow that would make undermining more valuable than just colonizing and acquiring a new system. At that point, the system would be so chaotic that it would cause players to leave in frustration.

Limiting the number of systems that count as valuable at all would help with that - although colonisation is also quite capable of creating large systems, and possibly for rather less effort than the Powerplay acquisition/fortification process itself is.
Promoting investment in building out systems instead of a "pump and dump" strategy is a good thing.

Focusing the fight on a smaller number of systems is definitely a good idea, but I think population is the wrong metric - high population systems are only in a place where they could reasonably be contested by two or more powers by coincidence, and a lot of them are already heavily reinforced (partly as a legacy of Powerplay 1) - fewer than 10% of pre-colonisation systems have a population over a billion, but almost a quarter of Strongholds do. Over half of billion-population systems are at least at Fortified strength already. Changing the metric without first making undermining a lot more practical would just give everyone some really obvious reinforcement targets to get the rest up to Stronghold too.
Those stats will change somewhat if system architects start building out systems. This entire thread is about a decay mechanic designed to reduce the accumulated control points of existing systems.

I think the best result comes from a combination of the following:
  • Give more/better Undermining options.
  • Improve Undermining values so the playing field is even between Undermining and Reinforcing, especially since many Undermining activities are illegal and can result on Notoriety.
  • Change the Power standings to focus on system quality instead of solely focusing on system quantity.
  • Give bonuses/penalties based on Superpower alignment with the controlling Power.
  • Enable adjustments for smaller Powers so that being behind doesn't have a snowball effect that eventually makes the Power unviable. One suggestion would be a bonus to Reinforcement for smaller powers, or a vulnerability to Undermining for larger ones.
 
Give bonuses/penalties based on Superpower alignment with the controlling Power.
I agree with everything else, but this was apparently a point of friction between BGS players and PP players during PP1, and separating the two was supposedly a goal of the PP2 rework, and (as i observed it) well received in the forums.
So while I agree it would thematically make sense, I don't think going back to that interaction would be warranted without a lot of support by additional evidence on related player experiences.
 
That my main concern actually, the decay will discourage random PP players, with there usefulness limited to acquisition.
This plays directly into System Colonization...imo...like its designed to get players playing PP and SC alternately in the same systems and expanding their Power into new territory. FDevs measurement of Power Play is number of systems. System Colonization is all about adding and building up new systems (and hauling lots and lots and lots and lots of commodities).

Is it what they intended?
 
This plays directly into System Colonization...imo...like its designed to get players playing PP and SC alternately in the same systems and expanding their Power into new territory. FDevs measurement of Power Play is number of systems. System Colonization is all about adding and building up new systems (and hauling lots and lots and lots and lots of commodities).

Is it what they intended?
I think it is, but this has the downside in that its easier to expand your own backyard than take someone elses- if FD want the PP side to have wars and pressure you can't have that if there is no constraints on real estate.
 
The difference is that it changes how Powerplay players approach System Colonization. Instead of colonizing with a single outpost or station (which can be done in a few hours with a coordinated group carrying supplies) and moving on to the next system, there is an incentive to build out the system further. That improves both Powerplay AND System Colonization. It also diminishes the incentive to colonize systems that only have a single build point.
There are 60,000ish neutral systems already forming a shell hundreds of LY wide around the original bubble. There's no need for Powerplayers to approach System Colonisation at all, right now - everyone else is already doing the work for free. Inhabited space is still growing at well over a thousand systems a week; the 12 Powers collectively rarely break a hundred. A group from my Power is running a project to bring Powerplay to one of the nearby nebulae - not for the standing bonus, for which the need to build a reasonably reinforced chain makes this way less efficient than just capturing all the in-fill systems around our existing territory would be, but just because it's a more interesting project than occupying Col 285 Sector BL-H a10-3 would be.

Changing undermining viability without also reducing the value of freshly-colonized systems is doomed to fail. I can't see an amount of improvement Frontier is willing to allow that would make undermining more valuable than just colonizing and acquiring a new system. At that point, the system would be so chaotic that it would cause players to leave in frustration.
I do agree with this point - the pre-Colonisation bubble was already too large for Powerplay 2 to be particularly conflict-heavy and it's now much larger, but again I think population is the wrong metric to try to fix that.

It's probably unfixable on any metric, but to give it a try positioning the valuable systems to be fought over needs to be done very deliberately. There isn't a massive battle taking place over Santy right now because it's in any way important in quantifiable metrics but because Frontier have offered additional rewards for fighting there specifically.

Declaring two or three (the thousand or so billion-plus systems are still too many!) systems currently held at Exploited state by each Power to be of major importance, positioning those systems to be on the existing borders those Powers have with their neighbours, and having some sort of reward for holding as many as possible at a particular time ... that might focus Powerplay action on few enough systems to matter. Then once that time is reached, hand out the rewards and designate a new round of high-importance systems based on where the borders have now shifted to.

Promoting investment in building out systems instead of a "pump and dump" strategy is a good thing.
Do you really think anyone much is doing pump-and-dump construction of systems to get more Powerplay standing at the moment?

A good third of colonised systems are over a million population (which definitely requires some additional construction), another third are over the hundred thousand population mark (which suggests they've got more than just their initial outpost present). There's already plenty of non-Powerplay incentive to build systems up and plenty of Powerplay incentive just to take those systems rather than building your own specifically for the purpose.

Those stats will change somewhat if system architects start building out systems.
No they won't. There are about 12,000 systems currently at Exploited or stronger. Only about 800 of those are newly colonised systems. Powerplay and colonisation are barely interacting at all right now. Colonisation starts to matter in about five years time when Powerplay would have Acquired and Reinforced the entire original bubble without it.

Building a billion-population system via colonisation may be essentially impossible unless you can grab something ridiculous like a binary ELW system; building even a hundred-million one is extremely expensive and requires a rare suitable system too. Focusing on population focuses the action on the existing bubble systems - which is good! - but it also focuses the action on a bunch of systems which are largely already captured, heavily fortified and unlikely to be successfully attacked.

(Well, unless "launch credible attack on a defended Stronghold" is the level of undermining which other changes allow, but that feels unlikely)

This entire thread is about a decay mechanic designed to reduce the accumulated control points of existing systems.
Reduce their CP total, yes. But it's got a floor at 25% strength, so it cannot possibly change their actual state - lots of bad feeling, no actual top line effect. All of those Strongholds will stay Strongholds, and will keep at least a 250kCP buffer against player-led undermining, which puts attacks on them out of range of all but the most active groups.

I think the best result comes from a combination of the following:
  • Give more/better Undermining options.
  • Improve Undermining values so the playing field is even between Undermining and Reinforcing, especially since many Undermining activities are illegal and can result on Notoriety.
Agreed absolutely on these two. Nothing works unless successfully undermining a system versus a marginally smaller reinforcing force is actually possible.
  • Change the Power standings to focus on system quality instead of solely focusing on system quantity.
Yes, but population is the wrong metric. Having given people the means to undermine with the first two, the motive has to come from the targets being ones where a strong attack could reasonably succeed. The high-population systems are mostly positioned such - as leftovers from PP1 - that this wouldn't work very well.
  • Give bonuses/penalties based on Superpower alignment with the controlling Power.
Wasn't popular the first time round, likely to be even less so this time.
  • Enable adjustments for smaller Powers so that being behind doesn't have a snowball effect that eventually makes the Power unviable. One suggestion would be a bonus to Reinforcement for smaller powers, or a vulnerability to Undermining for larger ones.
I don't think it's possible to have both:
- Undermining is viable even in the face of opposition and something players are genuinely incentivised to do
and
- all 12 of the existing Powers survive.
The difference in player bases, rank bonus quality, etc. of the various Powers is too great.

Frontier will certainly try to have it both ways, but they'd be better off in that case accepting that "all 12 survive" is more important to them, and removing Undermining from the game entirely as incompatible with that.

I don't think this sort of potential snowball effect isn't really worth worrying about unless it happens. I have no belief that Frontier are willing to let Undermining get to the stage where any Powers are regularly losing net systems week on week. They want people to Undermine - see all the merit changes made - they don't want people to Undermine successfully - see all the lack of other changes made.
 
Yes, but population is the wrong metric. Having given people the means to undermine with the first two, the motive has to come from the targets being ones where a strong attack could reasonably succeed. The high-population systems are mostly positioned such - as leftovers from PP1 - that this wouldn't work very well.
i am sure the idea behind population being the leading metric is: 1) common sense, because you do have a harder time to influence large population then smaller one, and 2) future interaction between population and system scores that would flux the population. we can expect an update at some point that overtly or covertly starts to change system population based on system economy, wealth, security and standard of living.
 
Honestly, there needs to be a rebalance that includes fun factor. Hauling rares is not fun for most. Folks who like trade have to do it 1x1 to get anywhere, which is not fun at all. Mining is effective, but not everyone likes it. Combat doesn't provide anywhere near enough merits compared to the most effective methods. It needs a 5x buff at least. A rescue role player, USS farming is charity work, and needs a 10x buff and rescue pods put back in (make a "Power aligned escape pod" and they're the only ones to count). It feels bad to ignore escape pods and pick up black boxes and wreckage instead. Ground stuff is great for many, including myself, but it's irrelevant as so much is currently blocked / nerfed, and so many opportunities to include existing game play into the PowerPlay framework. Exploration / exobiology is so hard nerfed that it cannot count as anything, but many people enjoy one of the three major trades.

If FDev can focus their efforts on making PowerPlay activities that count actually fun, by buffing fun activities to equal effectiveness as boom/civil liberty rare hauling and 1x1 trade, I think a lot more people would get involved.

I agree with the sentiment that the super power unlocks are irrelevant these days. Ship access should be gated through rank progression of PowerPlay to encourage more players to participate. Especially if they produce a large Chieftain in the next few ship releases. I really want a large sized Chieftain to replace my Corvette. For example, once I got my Corvette and Cutter, that's where my involvement in Federation and Imperial BGS reputation management ended. I left the area. Didn't do anything else. As use of the ships are not locked if I lose my reputation with one or the other, there's no reason to get involved with the Federation or Imperials once the two ships most desire is acquired.

At the risk of snowballing larger groups, there should be a temporary reward for acquiring systems through UM'ing - i.e. if you are the majority UM'ing power of a system, you get the system as spoils of war, and say a one week 30%+ reinforcement, UM, and acquisition bonus within 20 ly of the system you took. This would creative a true incentive to get into UM for good systems, and create some reason to do UM.
 
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A rescue role player, USS farming is charity work
Not sure about that. I've put 41k points into a system this cycle doing nothing but signal work (and related combat). Usually I get 10...12 black boxes per ~60...90 minute session before running out of signal spawns, but I've had as many as 19. A little over 400 merits per black box, plus extra 100 or so for every wreckage component (and I get 30+ of these). Tried rare trading a few times, too, but that didn't seem to be as efficient nor as fun (I'm limited to medium landing pads here)...

BTW, if doing salvage, keep an eye open for Degraded emissions that have Search and Rescue listed as an activity. They don't contain any engineering materials, but instead have one black box, one escape pod and 3 wreckage components.
 
They can just add some merits/CPs rewards on the mission board to add some "variety" and/or some specific powerplay missions.
Some missions already give merits/CP-s, but usually so few and only very specific mission types you can't even find reliably. It really should be expanded on; as it is now it feels so half-baked and underutilized.

Eg, Kaine is focused on mining, but also SAR and other humanitarian stuff. Yet only donation missions (maybe mining too, not sure, I don't mine much) give merits/CP-s. But logically all the black box salvage, hostage liberation, surface retrieval, settlement reboot etc missions should also count for Kaine PP (also data retrieval, surface scans and settlement digital espionage, because of that Covert control ethos🙃). Same with smuggling, piracy, settlement sabotage and other illegal missions for Archon; combat missions for Archer, Denton and Arissa etc.
 
Some missions already give merits/CP-s, but usually so few and only very specific mission types you can't even find reliably. It really should be expanded on; as it is now it feels so half-baked and underutilized.

Eg, Kaine is focused on mining, but also SAR and other humanitarian stuff. Yet only donation missions (maybe mining too, not sure, I don't mine much) give merits/CP-s. But logically all the black box salvage, hostage liberation, surface retrieval, settlement reboot etc missions should also count for Kaine PP (also data retrieval, surface scans and settlement digital espionage, because of that Covert control ethos🙃). Same with smuggling, piracy, settlement sabotage and other illegal missions for Archon; combat missions for Archer, Denton and Arissa etc.

Indeed... and I am pretty much curious why Archon should give me merits when donating gold or tritium to a local non controlling imperial faction :D :D :D (mistery).
 
Not sure about that. I've put 41k points into a system this cycle doing nothing but signal work (and related combat). Usually I get 10...12 black boxes per ~60...90 minute session before running out of signal spawns, but I've had as many as 19. A little over 400 merits per black box, plus extra 100 or so for every wreckage component (and I get 30+ of these). Tried rare trading a few times, too, but that didn't seem to be as efficient nor as fun (I'm limited to medium landing pads here)...
As I understand it, Kaine's SAR rank bonus that increases credit payouts, increases merit payouts too.

SAR isn't nearly as lucrative for non Aisling/Kaine/Winters

Each power has a scaling activity, but only some affect the merit payouts, and even on those that affect the merit payouts they might not be lucrative enough to use.
The combat powers in particular are hurt the most by this, Grom, ALD, Denton, and Archer all get bonus bounty payouts, but none of it scales the merits awarded because of when merits are awarded.
Delaine's is even worse, they get a bonus payout to black market sales, an activity that isn't inherently involved in powerplay (in theory it could be used for high profit sales?)
Antal, LYR and Torval get bonuses to specific commodities, but I think only Torval's slave bonus matters?

(Edit: I should clarify, some of the scaling bonuses for non-combat power bonuses could be considered worse, Antal's bonus to exob data is likely irrelevant even if it increases merit payouts, I don't have an alt to test it, as exob isn't strong enough on its own to beat other methods of producing control score)
 
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As I understand it, Kaine's SAR rank bonus that increases credit payouts, increases merit payouts too.

SAR isn't nearly as lucrative for non Aisling/Kaine/Winters
Neither for Delaine... even if we'd like to steal/smuggle black boxes (these give 160 merits, wreckage gives 40sh or so).

Each power has a scaling activity, but only some affect the merit payouts, and even on those that affect the merit payouts they might not be lucrative enough to use.
The combat powers in particular are hurt the most by this, Grom, ALD, Denton, and Archer all get bonus bounty payouts, but none of it scales the merits awarded because of when merits are awarded.
Delaine's is even worse, they get a bonus payout to black market sales, an activity that isn't inherently involved in powerplay (in theory it could be used for high profit sales?)
Exactly that.... we have both negatives in one: black market prices +30%.

Not only it is not lucrative, given the BM prices are already depressed... but more over, it doesn't give any merit.

Antal, LYR and Torval get bonuses to specific commodities, but I think only Torval's slave bonus matters?

(Edit: I should clarify, some of the scaling bonuses for non-combat power bonuses could be considered worse, Antal's bonus to exob data is likely irrelevant even if it increases merit payouts, I don't have an alt to test it, as exob isn't strong enough on its own to beat other methods of producing control score)
We used to have a merit bonus in the ethos for combat, but it disappeared after one of the recent updates.

Anyway, it's now really hard to track what's good what's not good, what's just so-and-so because or merits multipliers, shadow penalties etc which are in practice making impossible to translate merits straightforward into CPs (a game design choice we don't really like and which we hope FDEV puts under rework).
 
Whilst unclear who was responsible for the loss of four Patreus fortified systems, three of them were in a chain. This resulted in the loss of another exploited system, so the chain was broken. This will take weeks for them to recover, and I would imagine will change the way Patreus manages their acquisitions and reinforcement.

The order of operations for undermining is:

1. Do undermining. If successful:
2. Demotion to the next level down
3. Decay - about 50 kCP for fortified systems, and a horrendous 104 kCP for strongholds, making recovery to the next level up even harder
4. If there are no supporting fortified or stronghold systems within range, affected systems will fall to unoccupied, losing all 120 kCP in acquisition + whatever was left from falling from fortified.

This results in a double whammy: not only do systems pop to unoccupied when not supported by a nearby fortified or stronghold, any remaining systems have exceptional decay on top of that.

This is a huge win for underminers. Watch any fortified system with < 10% reinforcement like a hawk, and any strongholds with solo supporters, again within 10% of being fortified. I think this was a desired outcome for FDev, but it will make it even harder for folks trying to reinforce to concentrate on strategically important systems, because now all low fortified and low strongholds become more important to reinforce than any other strategy.
 
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