General / Off-Topic How much longer for Corbyn and Cameron?

[Coolersmoke]

Our history of confrontational politics stems largely from an interesting twist of architecture; the House of Commons is the only Western World Parliament in which the opposing parties actually sit facing each other. In all other countries, the layout of the parliament building is usually an amphitheatre.

Moreover, there are two lines drawn down the room from the Speaker's chair, over which no Member may cross. The distance between these two lines is the same distance as two men standing apart with drawn swords with tips touching.

 

[beelbeebub]

To answer the OP:

I think Corbyn will survive as leader post December 2016. Whether he will still lead the same party, or whether some horrid split will happen I don't know. There seems to be a deep disconnect between his MPs and the larger party membership.

I think Cameron will survive if the Euro thing goes his way. Again, his party may at that point disintegrate as hard-core euroskeptics jump ship to UKIP. If he loses the EU thing then I believe he is doomed, and Boris will leap into the empty seat.

Yeah, if the EU vote is no I expect DC to leave, Boris would then probably make a run for leader. Of course if EUref is no, I'd also expect another iScot vote.

On the other hand if the answer is stay, what will UKIP do? They may be strengthened by some conservative mps jumping ship, but their central reason for being will have passed. Have they done enough to move on from a single issue party? The purging of the ukip conservatives may actually be a good thing. With the anti EU, and a lot of the older xenophobic MPs gone, maybe the conservatives could start being less of a bunch of holes.

 

[Yaffle]

A fair point. But divisions like the party shows won't heal the day after the vote, whichever way it goes.

 

[Surfinjo]

Tricky, he has a lot of "grass roots" support, but it seems most of his MPs are against him.

My guess is, his grass roots support makes him safe for now but as soon as he makes a big enough mistake (which may not be a mistake per se just something that the other MPs can spin into one) the they'll knife him in the back.

Bit of a shame really, despite some differences of opinion, I think he's the sort of person we want in politics, just not the sort of person politics wants.

We get the politicians we deserve really.

That is the whole point though. The grass roots put Corbyn there but the MPs are ignoring their own grass roots as well as his. Benn and many others supported the bombing of Syria.

Many Labour MPs support the Tory's policy of public service cuts, indeed during her temporary leadership, Harman was quite open about it.

I get the impression that Corbyn is way out of his depth. He lacks the intelligence to form reasoned arguments against his own party. That's why Benn was able to behave as he did.

The Labour MPs are voting according to their personal opinions and are being shown for what they always were, fellow travellers.

Benn in particular surfs along on his father's name but we tend to forget that his father, along with Wilson who engineered the deliberate sabotage of the UK economy in the 70s paving the way for Thatcher and Blair.

Corbyn was elected to be lead a real opposition, but so far he is the only opponent.

Not exactly leadership, is it?

 

[mbkimberley]

That is the whole point though. The grass roots put Corbyn there but the MPs are ignoring their own grass roots as well as his. Benn and many others supported the bombing of Syria.

Many Labour MPs support the Tory's policy of public service cuts, indeed during her temporary leadership, Harman was quite open about it.

I get the impression that Corbyn is way out of his depth. He lacks the intelligence to form reasoned arguments against his own party. That's why Benn was able to behave as he did.

The Labour MPs are voting according to their personal opinions and are being shown for what they always were, fellow travellers.

Benn in particular surfs along on his father's name but we tend to forget that his father, along with Wilson who engineered the deliberate sabotage of the UK economy in the 70s paving the way for Thatcher and Blair.

Corbyn was elected to be lead a real opposition, but so far he is the only opponent.

Not exactly leadership, is it?

well said!!

 

[beelbeebub]

With all the posts about how poor PMQ are, it made me hanker for more civilised times

https://youtu.be/9_Oa7rMC6pc?t=