Hunting Unicorns: The Ellairb SJ-B b42-10 collision

Major Klutz

Major Klutz
I just arrived in system tonight. MattG you didn't mention what specific moons might collide and your videos were low rez and difficult to read anything on screen but I think it's 1A and 1B no?
At the moment they are not very close. https://i.imgur.com/cmdsvzJ.jpg , https://i.imgur.com/0mUj2el.jpg


I'll hang around here for a while until I need to leave for Sword of Damocles which should happen on the 11th
It's only about 128 jumps from here to Colonia.

From the surface of the B moon, the center of the A moon is 0.20Ls away at the moment. The radius of 1A is 362KM. The radius of 1B is 425KM.
The orbital angle between the two moons is very roughly 109 degrees based on that first overhead screenshot.
Other moon and orbit details are listed on EDSM here https://www.edsm.net/en/system/bodies/id/14203068/name/Ellairb+SJ-B+b42-10
The date and time shown on this post is adjusted for your time zone. The in game time which is visible on the above screenshots is (was) 05:16am on June 29th 3304

Update: It's 0.19Ls now at 14:17 (same day)
 
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MattG

MattG
Yeh, it's 1A and 1B. I've thrown that distance in my estimator and it's throwing up ~7am on 6th July as the date (gametime). However, it's only an estimate, and that's using center to center distance - if it was 0.18LY instead, it'd be almost 24 hours earlier so take any predictions as more a guideline. They're a bit better when we're down to Mms.

Still, that makes it quite a lot later than expected, especially as a percentage of the collision interval. Perhaps my maths is out?


Sadly, real life has caught me up a bit recently and I've not even managed to get back to the Bubble yet, let alone back out.
 

Major Klutz

Major Klutz
Almost 24 hours later (04:18 on June 30th) the distance is 0.18Ls so it looks like your estimator is on track.

Update: surface to center distance from 1B to 1A is 0.13Ls @1:30am on 2 July 3304
~63 degrees apart
ZgNSly6.png
 
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Major Klutz

Major Klutz
Distance started counting in Mm tonight.
Jul 3rd 3304
29.9Mm at exactly 02:40:55
29.8Mm at exactly 03:01:59
29.7Mm at exactly 03:23:01

Based on that I calculate 4.278 days from 03:23:01 but the approach speed is not linear at this point so it's not accurate, just no later than.
Fortunately the 6th is a Friday so I can stay up late.
That'll only give me ~4 days to get back over to Kyloasly DA-A f69 before the 11th

 
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Major Klutz

Major Klutz
Update: 11.0Mm from surface of 1B to center of 1A at 02:52:17
From 11.5Mm to 11.0Mm took 55m 17s or 3317 seconds
That's ~0.542659 Mm per hour

Unless I've made a mistake, that leaves only ~19.6 hours until collision.
10:28:17 pm today (5 Jun 3304) (Game Time)

That's Tomorrow at 3:28pm for me (Pacific Time) which is a bummer since I'm supposed to be at work.
 
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MattG

MattG
Major Klutz said:
Update: 11.0Mm from surface of 1B to center of 1A at 02:52:17
From 11.5Mm to 11.0Mm took 55m 17s or 3317 seconds
That's ~0.54265902924329213144407597226409 Mm per hour

Unless I've made a mistake, that leaves only ~19.6 hours until collision.
10:28:17 pm today (5 Jun 3304) (Game Time)

That's Tomorrow at 3:28pm for me (Pacific Time) which is a bummer since I'm supposed to be at work.
Click to expand...

I make it 20.27hrs from 02:52, so some 40mins after you... however, I also threw it in the estimator and that says 05:18 on 6th. In fact, last 3 readings you've provided show:
06/07/18 06:46
06/07/18 04:12
06/07/18 05:18

They seem to at least be converging. Although there's a margin of error in the calcs, they're a bit better once we're down to Mm. Hopefully it ends up late enough for you to make it.
 

Major Klutz

Major Klutz
Just a few minutes ago (Morning for me)

4ee7lgW.png


vKBl4uA.jpg



6.318M to the surface of 1A
Based on the speed I measured last night, that leaves 11.6 hours, so the linear approach speed must be variable here too.
Current speed seems to be ~0.39344 Mm/hr which puts the collision 16 hrs away.
 
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Major Klutz

Major Klutz
Update: 5.00Mm at 18:48
So my estimate from last night was way off. Gotta be at least 8 hours left. I expect it'll fall in line with your estimator.

Update: 3.53Mm now at 22:01
 
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Major Klutz

Major Klutz
No worries about getting home from work in time.

I've had to pick up and move twice today to get the A moon back in view after it drops below the horizon.
Although the system map says that both moons are tidally locked, the surface of the B moon does actually rotate with respect to the A moon. (unlike Kyloasly DA-A f69)
This could account for the speed variations I'm seeing. Since I'm measuring the distance from my ship on the surface, the surface is rotating toward or away from the A moon which will have an effect on my nav panel distance.

[video=youtube_share;EeyOuTCTFnM]https://youtu.be/EeyOuTCTFnM[/video]

Collision at ~2:17:30

LiveStream archive here ... https://youtu.be/EeyOuTCTFnM

Update: 06:00. Contact imminent.
Update: Contact was at 06:09 from my perspective.
Past the mid point now at 07:54
Nearly 1 am here in California. Have to go to bed now.
 
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MattG

MattG
After fixing an error in my calculations (thanks to Major Klutz's data), this is a (hopefully!) more accurate collision schedule:
29/07/2018 15:37
22/08/2018 01:06
14/09/2018 10:35
07/10/2018 20:04
31/10/2018 05:33
23/11/2018 15:02
17/12/2018 00:31
09/01/2019 10:00
01/02/2019 19:29
25/02/2019 04:58
20/03/2019 14:27
12/04/2019 23:56
06/05/2019 09:25
29/05/2019 18:54
22/06/2019 04:22
15/07/2019 13:51
07/08/2019 23:20
31/08/2019 08:49
23/09/2019 18:18
17/10/2019 03:47
09/11/2019 13:16
02/12/2019 22:45
26/12/2019 08:14
 

Eagle131

Eagle131
Sorry for the resurrection, but the DSSA Buurian Anchorage stopped by here on its deployment expedition.

Long story short, we witnessed another collision today 8 Jul at 18:05 UTC.

Here is a Discord screen grab of the final numbers crunched by our fleet's science team:

Lair of Unicorns 8 jul 3306.png


And here's a bangup photo from fleet member CMDR NeokeVenice!!

Elite_Dangerous_Screenshot_2020.07.08_-_11.13.27.04.png
 
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Heavy Johnson

Heavy Johnson
MattG said:
That's a wonderful shot!

I was just looking through a conversation from nearly a year and a half ago between me, @Heavy Johnson and @Major Klutz about a collision back then. From the readings then, the predicted impact would've been 18:24 - so to be within 20 mins is awesome :).
Based on your data, should make next one around 11am UTC on 23rd July.
Click to expand...

Eagle and I had been discussing the actual and expected window, and I'm pleased to see the long-range "forecasts" have been so accurate. Any error propogates through each subsequent event, so it's excellent that we have our observed error so low.

Now, who has the calculator for prediction times? GMP entry going to need an update....
 

MattG

MattG
Heavy Johnson said:
Eagle and I had been discussing the actual and expected window, and I'm pleased to see the long-range "forecasts" have been so accurate. Any error propogates through each subsequent event, so it's excellent that we have our observed error so low.

Now, who has the calculator for prediction times? GMP entry going to need an update....
Click to expand...

Based off latest reading:
Code: 
23-Jul-2020 11:00            07-Aug-2020 03:56            21-Aug-2020 20:51            05-Sep-2020 13:47            20-Sep-2020 06:43
04-Oct-2020 23:38            19-Oct-2020 16:34            03-Nov-2020 09:29            18-Nov-2020 02:25            02-Dec-2020 19:21
17-Dec-2020 12:16            01-Jan-2021 05:12            15-Jan-2021 22:07            30-Jan-2021 15:03            14-Feb-2021 07:59
01-Mar-2021 00:54            15-Mar-2021 17:50            30-Mar-2021 10:45            14-Apr-2021 03:41            28-Apr-2021 20:37
13-May-2021 13:32            28-May-2021 06:28            11-Jun-2021 23:23            26-Jun-2021 16:19            11-Jul-2021 09:15
 
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