Winning formula for ... who?
Players that play in Open find the risk acceptable in it's current state. I fly in Open when my risk level is low, or I am geared specifically for pvp trouble. The down side for me (and I assume many other players) is my expectation for positive social interaction in Open is preset to zero. That is not a winning formula, and certainly relegates ED to niche status at best.
Not for who... for
what.
What being a nearly 40 year old conundrum: How do you maximize the player-base of an open world sandbox MMO that includes PvP,
without relying on a PvP switch?
There's a certain type of player who is extremely GIFTed at driving away the player-base of a game like open-mode Elite: Dangerous, simply by indulging in GIFT-like behavior. In my experience, such games are extremely attractive to GIFTed players, because such an environment provides them both a huge stage play upon, and a captive audience. Games like open-ED I've played in the past have tried everything from super-powered NPCs that respond instantly in "safe" zones, to draconian criminal penalties, to massive incentives to "hunt" them down. The only thing that's worked in the past at reducing GIFT-like behavior is some form of PvP switch.
A (hopefully) growing trend in games similar to Elite: Dangerous is the realization that GIFT-like behavior requires three ingredients, just like combustion does: anonymity, audience, and opportunity. Anonymity is a given in an online game. That leaves opportunity and audience. In the past, game developers have concentrated on addressing opportunity, until they either have to shut down due to lack of paying customers, or they remove opportunity altogether via the PvP switch.
What Elite: Dangerous and other games have done is address the third leg of the triangle: the audience. The GIFTed aren't looking for
any particular audience. They have a target audience in mind. PvPers, for example, don't get upset when they get attacked "for no reason." They simply kill their attacker instead. Players who fall in the middle of the PvP/PvE spectrum also tend to not get upset when attacked. They regard such an attack as an opportunity to test their combat skills at best, or have the skills and knowledge to escape at worst. The target audience of the GIFTed are those who fall on the PvE end of the spectrum, because they are the easiest to kill, and the most likely to get upset in the process.
When players are given the freedom to choose
who they want to play with, without any form of coersion, the GIFTed suddenly find themselves faced by the
wrong audience. An audience who regards their attacks as an easily endured hazard at best, or responds with deadly force at worst. An audience that could respond to non-PvP oriented GIFT-like behavior with PvP. This is not the kind of environment the GIFTed enjoy, so they inevitably move on to greener pastures.
Is it a perfect environment for everyone? Of course not, there is no such thing as an online game that is perfect for everyone. But it is the perfect environment for a
significant majority of the Elite: Dangerous player base. This is the first online game I've played of this nature where this has been the case. And
that, IMO, is what makes it a winning formula.