General / Off-Topic Interesting Times.

[hems303]

Do you think there could be millions of deaths ? Tens of millions of deaths ?

Unfortunately as a retired health professional of 35+ years; (IMHO) I am edging towards this being a bad-un, perhaps along the lines of the post WW1 influenza pandemic.... just got a feeling things may 'get away from us' this time...too much complacency inherent in the 'powers that be';
.... The numbers of elder high risk with underlying conditions has never been higher worldwide, the medical world has been very successful in achieving this, but unfortunately not in providing the consequently required level of infrastructure to cope with said demographic in times like these!
It's too late shutting the stable door once the horse has bolted!

 

[Patrick_68000]

Unfortunately as a retired health professional of 35+ years; (IMHO) I am edging towards this being a bad-un, perhaps along the lines of the post WW1 influenza pandemic.... just got a feeling things may 'get away from us' this time...too much complacency inherent in the 'powers that be';
.... The numbers of elder high risk with underlying conditions has never been higher worldwide, the medical world has been very successful in achieving this, but unfortunately not in providing the consequently required level of infrastructure to cope with said demographic in times like these!
It's too late shutting the stable door once the horse has bolted!

I want to believe you especially after knowing this :

The authorities in the United States expect the number of cases to explode as soon as the tests become widely available: projections transmitted to the Senate speak of 70 to 150 million Americans who could be infected, in a country of nearly 330 millions of inhabitants.

In Germany, Merkel says 60-80% of the German population can be infected.

 

[ZeroAi]

I know a lot of people want to predict doom and gloom - but it's ok - we need your types to keep us on our toes!

Each year in America anywhere from 5 to 20% percent of us will get the flu - and some years it's been over 70 million of us who get it, and over 60K of us die from it :-(

But the facts about Covid-19 are good - those recovering from it are saying the virus was fairly mild.

Tom Hanks and Rita Wilson share update with fans following Covid-19 diagnosis

The couple are in isolation in Australia.

www.expressandstar.com

Are you referring to the 2017/2018 influenza season ?

Regarding the H1N1 (swine flu,) from April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010 the CDC estimated that there were 60.8 million cases, 274,304 hospitalizations, and 12,469 deaths in the United States.

Until Covid-19 hits 12K deaths in a single year in the US, it will be considered a lesser outbreak compared to H1N1.

Today (3/13/20) we have 00,041 deaths from Covid-19 in the USA - so not even close - but it will surely grown over the course of the next nine months.

PS - I also previously linked to the death rates from the flu (aka influenza) for the past 10 years, which ranges wildly (see the previous link if you'd like to see the results.)

 

[hems303]

I know a lot of people want to predict doom and gloom - but it's ok - we need your types to keep us on our toes!

Sorry but I really DON'T want to predict doom and gloom, I am an inherently optimistic person.

Spoiler

However as a senior healthcare professional I was employed at Stafford Hospital (UK) when in 1985 the Legionnaires outbreak VERY rapidly killed, in hours, 20+ of our 60+ patients admitted with this respiratory disease. I myself was infected but survived as I was fit and healthy at the time (it was just like Flu), I'm now find myself in the 'compromised' group as I have latterly developed Asthma and Congestive Cardiac Failure:

I have seen just what a respiratory pathogen can do to the immuno-supressed and otherwise compromised individuals. This Covid-19 holds little to fear for the 100% healthy demographic..... I do have grave concern for all individuals with any degree of compromised cardio-respiratory and/or immune systems.

Just IMHO having cared for these patients and professionally studied and followed epidemiological 'advances' over the years*.

*Jill Crawford my mother-in-law was an Epidemiologist with The World Health Organisation (WHO), before she was 'taken' from us.

o7

 

[metatheurgist]

Unfortunately in the US, containment has been a total clustercaress. The CDC didn't have a working test at the start. They were denying tests and supressing reports of early infection. I'm going to be surprised if the outbreak isn't massive in the US.

It seems like people without a previous exposure to a corona virus have a mild reaction, that will probably be the saving grace.

 

[Patrick_68000]

Unfortunately in the US, containment has been a total clustercaress. The CDC didn't have a working test at the start. They were denying tests and supressing reports of early infection. I'm going to be surprised if the outbreak isn't massive in the US.

Projections presented to the Senate envisage between 70 and 150 million Americans who may be infected in the coming weeks.

 

[Ralph Vargr]

My job did not recover. I, and other contingent workers (number unknown) were laid off Friday afternoon.

The mortality rate extends to not just medical mortality.

 

[ZeroAi]

Sorry but I really DON'T want to predict doom and gloom, I am an inherently optimistic person.

o7

I hear you, but yesterday we (USA) were at 41 deaths, so there is still hope we won't hit the 12,000 of H1N1, nor the 30,000+ which the flu has claim each year for the past few years.

In fact, it's possible that with so many focused on prevention, that the total lose of life from all viruses will go down.

So while we have no idea how this will play out, that fact that Covid-19 does not target children, and has mild symptoms for most adults, and so far has a low mortality rate, there is a lot of reason to be cautiously optimistic

 

[Chris Simon]

I hear you, but yesterday we (USA) were at 41 deaths, so there is still hope we won't hit the 12,000 of H1N1, nor the 30,000+ which the flu has claim each year for the past few years.

In fact, it's possible that with so many focused on prevention, that the total lose of life from all viruses will go down.

So while we have no idea how this will play out, that fact that Covid-19 does not target children, and has mild symptoms for most adults, and so far has a low mortality rate, there is a lot of reason to be cautiously optimistic

Well, maybe not so here on the Elite Forum where an average user age is 50+, but overall I agree. I hope it won't be THAT bad.
Plus despite all the shortcomings and possible overload of the medical care systems, many serious cases who are lucky enough to BE taken care of and would have otherwise died will be saved.

 

[Stigbob]

I hear you, but yesterday we (USA) were at 41 deaths, so there is still hope we won't hit the 12,000 of H1N1, nor the 30,000+ which the flu has claim each year for the past few years.

In fact, it's possible that with so many focused on prevention, that the total lose of life from all viruses will go down.

So while we have no idea how this will play out, that fact that Covid-19 does not target children, and has mild symptoms for most adults, and so far has a low mortality rate, there is a lot of reason to be cautiously optimistic

41 reported deaths, we don't know what reporting criteria they use though. The numbers also meaningless unless you test enough people, the only thing we know about that is the US is close to bottom in the developed world for covid-19 testing according to the news yesterday.

In the UK people who are old and in poor health frequently get a cursory tick-box natural causes write up. They'll need to change that here if they want any accuracy, which may not be possible with the system (that normally has very little spare capacity) under pressure.

 

[jasonbarron]

I hear you, but yesterday we (USA) were at 41 deaths, so there is still hope we won't hit the 12,000 of H1N1, nor the 30,000+ which the flu has claim each year for the past few years.

In fact, it's possible that with so many focused on prevention, that the total lose of life from all viruses will go down.

So while we have no idea how this will play out, that fact that Covid-19 does not target children, and has mild symptoms for most adults, and so far has a low mortality rate, there is a lot of reason to be cautiously optimistic

You gotta know that on this forum you're gonna get some petty, ankle biting anti-American digs from someone like Stigbob & Co, but yeah, you are absolutely correct. My personal view is that the panic and secondary effects will cause far more trouble than the virus itself. It's almost impossible for me to believe that millions of us haven't already been infected and in many cases already dealt with it without ever having a clue that it was Covid and the death statistics haven't seen the kind of big anomaly's he's insinuating. There's bumpy road ahead, make no mistake, but there's a good chance that the death tolls will end up being smaller than H1N1 or the seasonal flu.

@metatheurgist the amount of stones being thrown by people like you who live in glass houses is astonishing. America bashing is like a sick fetish for some of you. My advice before smugly patting yourself on the back for having relatively low rates so far while simultaneously sneering at America is to back way down, because not only could your situation change for the worse (and probably will), it's pretty bad karma.

 

[Rubbernuke]

What I hope in vain after all this is that the world and its leaders bloody well learn, and plan. Nearly all of it was preventable.

 

[Robin of Spiritwood]

My job did not recover. I, and other contingent workers (number unknown) were laid off Friday afternoon.

The mortality rate extends to not just medical mortality.

It is bad news, sorry to hear it.
Now is the time to stay home though.

What I hope in vain after all this is that the world and its leaders bloody well learn, and plan. Nearly all of it was preventable.

Truer words mate, truer words.

 

[Stigbob]

You gotta know that on this forum you're gonna get some petty, ankle biting anti-American digs from someone like Stigbob, but yeah, you are absolutely correct. My personal view is that the panic and secondary effects will cause far more trouble than the virus itself. It's almost impossible for me to believe that millions of us haven't already been infected and in many cases already dealt with it without ever having a clue that it was Covid and the death statistics haven't seen the kind of big anomaly's he's insinuating. There's bumpy road ahead, make no mistake, but there's a good chance that the death tolls will end up being smaller than H1N1 or the seasonal flu.

Verifiable facts are not anti-American, even if you don't like them. I didn't claim any anomaly size, just that without reliable data you can't tell and that the less data you try to gather the less clue you have. With no testing you have no clue. Its not rocket surgery.

Here's another verifiable fact for you, Trump shut down the US government pandemic team last year.

 

[Rubbernuke]

Truer words mate, truer words.

The sobering thing is that this virus is not that bad- people have and will die, but could you imagine of something with a higher mortality rate got loose? The Chinese, Iranians especially covered up the extent of their problems (pt. zero was identified last November in Wuhan but was hushed up), the Iranians have dug mass graves (seen in satellite photos). My gov (UK) is experimenting on its population by trying out herd immunity and trying to let people get infected at a low but continual rate, betting more will survive before they overwhelm the NHS.

If anything we are really, really lucky so far, and its that fact that chills me more than anything.

 

[Stigbob]

The sobering thing is that this virus is not that bad- people have and will die, but could you imagine of something with a higher mortality rate got loose? The Chinese, Iranians especially covered up the extent of their problems (pt. zero was identified last November in Wuhan but was hushed up), the Iranians have dug mass graves (seen in satellite photos). My gov (UK) is experimenting on its population by trying out herd immunity and trying to let people get infected at a low but continual rate, betting more will survive before they overwhelm the NHS.

If anything we are really, really lucky so far, and its that fact that chills me more than anything.

Boris Johnson said in an interview his political hero is the Mayor in Jaws as he makes a difficult decision for the good of the economy even though it causes some deaths.

Boris Johnson's hero is the mayor who kept the beaches open in Jaws. That's fine by me

The PM thinks Amity mayor Larry Vaughn is ‘the real hero of Jaws’. Maybe that’s why he’s emulating his ‘the beaches are open’ politics as coronavirus spreads around the world

www.theguardian.com

 

[Rubbernuke]

Boris Johnson said in an interview his political hero is the Mayor in Jaws as he makes a difficult decision for the good of the economy even though it causes some deaths.

Boris Johnson's hero is the mayor who kept the beaches open in Jaws. That's fine by me

The PM thinks Amity mayor Larry Vaughn is ‘the real hero of Jaws’. Maybe that’s why he’s emulating his ‘the beaches are open’ politics as coronavirus spreads around the world

www.theguardian.com

What BJ and co are attempting is massive social and bio engineering- its a huge gamble. In effect its doing mass vaccination on the cheap (in comparison to developing a vaccine, taking the economic hit of lockdowns etc).

 

[jasonbarron]

Verifiable facts are not anti-American, even if you don't like them. I didn't claim any anomaly size, just that without reliable data you can't tell and that the less data you try to gather the less clue you have. With no testing you have no clue. Its not rocket surgery.

Here's another verifiable fact for you, Trump shut down the US government pandemic team last year.

You don't have to explain your partisan, agenda driven hackery, Stigbob. I get it loud and clear.

Yes, I'm sure that if people such as yourself acting in a dedicated "fake news Russian bot" manner keep spreading the bull excrement that just because some individuals who weren't doing their jobs were repositioned it means that our entire team was shut down without any replacement, some people will believe it. Don't try it on me, though. Man, I used to think you were just a fun loving troll in it for the joke, but now when I see the lies you propagate and the fundamental nature of the disunity you're spreading I guess I just have to wake up to the reality concerning what kind of man is actually sitting on other end of the internet from me. Ive been trying to bring people together, regardless of cultural difference, you are the opposite.

 

[Stigbob]

What BJ and co are attempting is massive social and bio engineering- its a huge gamble. In effect its doing mass vaccination on the cheap (in comparison to developing a vaccine, taking the economic hit of lockdowns etc).

The worst that can happen (from their perspective) is pressure on housing, hospitals and infrastructure gets relieved a bit . Just a few tourists being eaten by the shark.

They also seem to be overlooking the fact flu viruses mutate rapidly, so herd immunity isn't that reliable. Hence a new flu-jab every year.

You don't have to explain your partisan, agenda driven hackery, Stigbob. I get it loud and clear.

I don't have an agenda, I just give my opinions. I'm not remotely offended by your views, I just happen to disagree with a lot of them. Especially the ones that are somewhat daft from my perspective.

Yes, I'm sure that if people such as yourself acting in a dedicated "fake news Russian bot" manner keep spreading the bull excrement that just because some individuals who weren't doing their jobs were repositioned it means that our entire team was shut down without any replacement, some people will believe it. Don't try it on me, though. Man, I used to think you were just a fun loving troll in it for the joke, but now when I see the lies you propagate and the fundamental nature of the disunity you're spreading I guess I just have to wake up to the reality concerning what kind of man is actually sitting on other end of the internet from me. Ive been trying to bring people together, regardless of cultural difference, you are the opposite.

Speaking of which the avatar is just a cunning photoshop, the patriotic hat and moustache are not actually real.

But that's exactly what a disunity spready red under the bed would say isn't it. I'm really part of the international communist conspiracy to sap and impurify all of your precious bodily fluids.

 

[Rubbernuke]

The worst that can happen (from their perspective) is pressure on housing, hospitals and infrastructure gets relieved a bit . Just a few tourists being eaten by the shark.

They also seem to be overlooking the fact flu viruses mutate rapidly, so herd immunity isn't that reliable. Hence a new flu-jab every year.

Its the widespread social engineering Cummings would revel in.