I'm honestly a bit tired of the whole "there is no evidence that the game might end" claim, because it stops any form of healthy discussion. Because, of course there is never going to be direct evidence that the game is going to end, as it never was for the other games either. There are indications and there are reasonable arguments why the game might potentially end support which we could discuss in a reasonable manner with each other, but it always ends up in a "it's doomspeak" or "there is no evidence", which just instantly kills any conversation about the topic.
Instead, I think it's valuable to start thinking about what might influence the end of the game and prepare ourselves for it. If not, we're going to end up with a whole "omg Frontier stopped the game they're stupid" scenario which honestly is not beneficial for any of the parties involved. It does not have to be doom and gloom, especially given how well the game has done so far. I completely agree with
@biggest_dreamer here, people who are adement about the fact that more support is almost guaranteed are going to be far more disappointed than those who are cautious about it.
Now, let's put both sides in perspective.
The game
could be ending support this year because a combination of a few of these reasons:
- The codebase at this point is conservatively speaking 7 years old. That's a lot of legacy code, that's a lot of decisions that were made a long time ago that dictate what can or cannot be done with the game. Codebases can be refactored, but that requires a lot of time, budget and dev profiles that might just not be financially viable. The age of the codebase at this point is an indicator of how long the game can and will be supported, and we are at the point where the majority of the games out there have already stopped or tend to stop.
- We are a late stage zoo game, and as much as there's a near infinite amount of animals that can be added to the game; there is very much a limit to the amount of animal choices people are going to want to keep paying for. With every new pack, more and more of the audience of the game complains that the packs don't add anything exciting and that animals are just clones. And this is inevitable for any zoo game, but obviously is going to start/is already affecting the sales.
- The costs of making new DLCs raise over time. Your devs become more experienced which results in higher pays, inflation impacts costs when it comes to resources (software licenses, building costs, etc. etc.). People also tend to vastly underestimate the costs that come with making these packs. Mostly because people only tend to look at the coding and the modeling/texturing, but often have no idea of all the other stuff that comes with the development cycle like project managers, product owners, researchers, Q&A testing, etc. etc. There's a lot more overhead than people think, and that also comes with a price.
Unless Frontier decides to raise their prices for the DLC (which honestly surprisingly, they haven't done even after so many years), there is going to be a point where a DLC is going to end up just being breakeven. As @Pentoleaf said, we don't even know how close we are to that. Frontier, like any business, is going to try to avoid the point of breakeven instead of putting out packs that are breakeven. So, there are going to be business analysis that will be made to avoid reaching that point. Especially with the situation Frontier is in.
- That brings us to Frontier's current financial state. I know a lot of people seem to expect that this means that Frontier will for sure continue Planet Zoo because it has been doing well; but reality is of course once again much more complicated. With 3 CMS games planned to be released over the next 3 years, several resources have been pumped into those. Shifting those to Planet Zoo isn't something that you can do right away. To give a very specific example, you cannot expect to move a dev from another project to Planet Zoo and expect them to be productive enough to do anything major in less than a month time (and that's honestly being optimistic, there are many projects that require much longer). Shifting resources is not as easy as it sounds.
On top of that, every new DLC is a new risk. There's no way of knowing for sure that it will sell well, and given the current state of Frontier they might not want to take any risks at all. That could mean that they could go for a safer route, something they've done in the past already and of which they know that there's at least an audience; which is a console port. You'd need significantly less people to do the port, you already have the experience in house to do so, and that way you can still make money on Planet Zoo without major investments.
- There could be any number of commitments that Frontier has right now that mean that they need everyone who's available, so that could very much be something that influences the game's course without us ever knowing it.
- There is, at this point, no direct confirmation for further support for FY25. This is new, because over the course of the last years we always had somewhat of a direct confirmation for more DLCs. Whether it be a full on confirmation in financial documents, or the games code containing references or folders being left behind. Currently, we have no such direct confirmation at all.
There are obviously more reasons that will impact the final decision; but people really need to understand that further support is influenced by a hell of a lot more than "As long as people keep buying the DLCs Frontier will keep making them", because reality is unfortuneatly never that simple.
That being said, there are also reasons why the game
could keep seeing support:
- There are still a few more somewhat popular animals that could be added to the game, regardless of birds or fish. Animals like a walrus, a coati, more monkeys, etc. There's no denying that, at least for a pack or two, there are still a few animals left that the semi-general audience knows of that could spark their interest.
- As mentioned in the financial documents, both Planet Zoo and Jurassic World Evolution seem to be financially good for Frontier. Whilst making new DLCs comes with more risks than stopping altogether, if the next packs sell well that's not something that Frontier would mind. Again, they could still go for the slightly less risky approach and go for a console version though.
- Like some have mentioned, previous games have ended with a slightly bigger DLC at the end and Frontier has done half year DLCs too; so it's not out of the question that we get one or two more DLCs next year.
Now what I'm
not trying to say with this is that the end of support at the end of the year is guaranteed. That's never been my goal. What I'm trying to say that there are several factors that will influence the end, and we've reached a point where these factors will come more and more into play. Much more than for instance two years ago, it is sensible to start preparing for the end of support and to stop taking things for granted. As
@zoomaster1994 has said, all things eventually come to an end, and so will Planet Zoo.
Nobody here knows for sure. We're all making assumptions, and at this point
there is no direct evidence to say that we'll get support for next year or won't get support at all. Everything is our own interpretation, and this is the first time that we're here because the past years always gave us direct confirmation. I think it's beneficial for us as a community if we can have a discussion about that, so that we aren't completely taken by surprise when the enivitable end comes.