My Biggest Concern Regards Colonisation, Excluding Casual Gamers

[Cmdr Travers]

I'm very excited about colonisation and I'll be watching the Frontier livestream next week I've been getting ready for this since the beginning of the summer and I'm now all set up and ready to run with it on day one. However this does raise a concern, and it's something Frontier will really need to be aware of when they release the feature. That is excluding casual and returning gamers.

It's very clear that colonisation, like fleet carriers before it, will require a huge amount of credits in game. It's also clear, given how Frontier have laid out the scant details so far, that it'll be a time sink. Both of these are barriers to entry for all of those Cmdrs who either don't get a chance to play very often, or that will be returning to the game after a period away.

I also have a feeling that the day the feature drops there's going to be a rush to build colonies in all the good spots. This means every player who is in the game regularly and can commit time to it will immediately have a big advantage over gamers that can't commit the time.

I'm not sure what the solution to this is, I'd be interested in hearing all your opinions, and there might not even be a good solution. I do hope Frontier bear this in mind though.

 

[IstvaanDCIV]

I feel like a lot will depend on mechanics that have yet to be revealed to us.

 

[Disemboweled Ego]

I also have a feeling that the day the feature drops there's going to be a rush to build colonies in all the good spots. This means every player who is in the game regularly and can commit time to it will immediately have a big advantage over gamers that can't commit the time.

I'm not sure what the solution to this is, I'd be interested in hearing all your opinions, and there might not even be a good solution. I do hope Frontier bear this in mind though.

If the colonization range isn't huge (250-500Ly) then it'll take a while to reach the actual "best" systems -- if every new colony opens up more systems for colonization then the stuff on the edge of the bubble will look bad compared to the new systems that open up further out.

The credit sink is necessary to make credits more relevant again after years of reward inflation, but I feel like epic amounts hauling might be the bottleneck for most players and I hope we get something where we can hire NPCs to haul for us instead.

 

[Cmdr Travers]

If the colonization range isn't huge (250-500Ly) then it'll take a while to reach the actual "best" systems -- if every new colony opens up more systems for colonization then the stuff on the edge of the bubble will look bad compared to the new systems that open up further out.

The credit sink is necessary to make credits more relevant again after years of reward inflation, but I feel like epic amounts hauling might be the bottleneck for most players and I hope we get something where we can hire NPCs to haul for us instead.

If the range is 500ly then the number of daisy chained colonies needed to reach the places many players will actually want to build will be ludicrously prohibitive. 44 for Colonia and 120+ for places like Beagle Point. If they did that, the whole feature would be meaningless for many players.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

This means every player who is in the game regularly and can commit time to it will immediately have a big advantage over gamers that can't commit the time.

I don't see any plausible solution to this which also involves colonisation having gameplay of any sort rather than just some background timers counting down unable to be affected by any means.

Looking at Powerplay, for example:
- the median participant probably puts in about 5000 merits per week (the mean is somewhat higher, as usual)
- the fastest individuals put in around 100x that at 500,000 merits per week
- the most active squadrons are putting in over 5,000,000 merits per week between their members
- the total participation per week looks to be of the order of 150 million merits, if not more

These aren't unusual patterns - CGs, squadron leaderboards, anything else where player activity can be ranked seems to show similar patterns.

So if the median player (who probably is fairly casual, but there are of course half the players even more casual) can colonise a system in X time, then if colonisation follows the same activity pattern as Powerplay:
- someone with lots of free time who focuses purely on colonisation can do 100 systems in the same time
- the biggest colonising-specialist squadron can do 1,000 systems
- regardless of how it's distributed the player base as a whole might do 30,000 systems (i.e. more systems than are already inhabited)

So based on that, "X" is going to have to be a very long time to stop colonisation taking over the entire game (sure, the galaxy as a whole is big enough that it's never going to make a dent in that 400 billion system count ... but even doubling the size of the bubble would be a bit pointless given how many of its existing systems barely get any visitors)


(I do again suspect that colonisation might be accompanied by "decolonisation" of some form - some mechanism which causes unmaintained systems to be abandoned whether through neglect or through Thargoids or through all their population moving out to live in the newer more exciting colonies. But Frontier have made no definite hints of that yet. Still, if that were the case it would be possible to allow much faster colonisation than if it's solely an additive process)

 

[Cmdr Travers]

So based on that, "X" is going to have to be a very long time to stop colonisation taking over the entire game (sure, the galaxy as a whole is big enough that it's never going to make a dent in that 400 billion system count ... but even doubling the size of the bubble would be a bit pointless given how many of its existing systems barely get any visitors)


(I do again suspect that colonisation might be accompanied by "decolonisation" of some form - some mechanism which causes unmaintained systems to be abandoned whether through neglect or through Thargoids or through all their population moving out to live in the newer more exciting colonies. But Frontier have made no definite hints of that yet. Still, if that were the case it would be possible to allow much faster colonisation than if it's solely an additive process)

In game it's certainly going to be expensive, and grindy. If I had to guess the colonisation ship will probably be 5 billion cr, the same as a carrier and then there could be grind fuelling it but also buying thousands of tons of metals and goods used in the construction of the colony.

On the money side alone though, a great many players have a few billion knocking around, but only a much smaller percentage will have enough to build multiple colonies.

Anyway, this is my guess based on how the fleet carrier system works.

 

[IstvaanDCIV]

If the range is 500ly then the number of daisy chained colonies needed to reach the places many players will actually want to build will be ludicrously prohibitive. 44 for Colonia and 120+ for places like Beagle Point. If they did that, the whole feature would be meaningless for many players.

I think there are too many unknown variables to make any firm predictions in this vein. Variables such as:

1) Whether any inhabited system can be built from, if it needs to be a certain size or possess certain characteristics, or just those close to the Sol bubble. The case of any inhabited system will make it quicker, since colonists could also set out from those systems containing Colonia Bridge megaships.

2) How long it takes to build up a system enough to make the next link in the chain. I got the impression from the last Frontier Unlocked that we should be able to build just the one thing and then move on to the next system, which would be quickest.

3) Whether players can do anything to speed along the process of system colonisation started by another player.

4) Other factors I can't think of right now.

 

[Valorin]

Yeah, I too think thanks to the limited range, colonisation won't reach too far out in the first few months. I kinda hope range will be very limited because I actually don't want to see every corner of the Milky Way colonised at all.

Also, I think colonisation is an attempt to add so called "endgame" content to the game and might not be addressing returners and new players intentionally, but exclusively those who sit on their billions and don't know what to do with it.
I know I do. My carrier is secured for years, and if I'd put in the effort, I could easily make that decades. I just don't see any benefit from that. With colonisation coming that changed, and maybe I'll just pile up a few more billion credits in preparation...

But yeah, maybe assume it's not made for new players and returners.

 

[Mr Lindsay]

If the range is 500ly then the number of daisy chained colonies needed to reach the places many players will actually want to build will be ludicrously prohibitive. 44 for Colonia and 120+ for places like Beagle Point. If they did that, the whole feature would be meaningless for many players.

500ly would, I think, be insanely far. I expect significantly sub-100ly, and hopefully sub-50ly as the upper limit. The numbers to reach Colonia SHOULD be extreme, or we're talking about players being able to colonize every corner of the galaxy.
There are a few ways to add wiggle-room to that of course, such as costs going up the further your system is from another inhabited system, incentivising small jumps while allowing larger jumps for those prepared to fork out the extra. Which would help your casual/hardcore concerns too.

You're generally pretty negative about this, and from what FDev have said already I don't see that you should be. It seems pretty straightforward. Casual players will be able to manage to claim a system and 'architect' that, while the hardcore will be taking on multiple systems that require a greater investment in resources/time. Casual players shouldn't be planning their own personal Colonia bridge project. (Though possibly they could be part of one, built by a well co-ordinated player group.)

 

[IstvaanDCIV]

Yeah, I too think thanks to the limited range, colonisation won't reach too far out in the first few months. I kinda hope range will be very limited because I actually don't want to see every corner of the Milky Way colonised at all.

Even fast colonisation that could be done anywhere in the galaxy would still leave vast tracts of it untouched. 400 billion stars is an absolutely huge number, and exploration will always be faster than colonisation. Yet despite a decade of thousands of CMDRs heading out into the black, there are still plenty of star systems even quite close to the bubble which have yet to have an explorer pass through them.

I think anyone who is worried about system colonisation crowding out the galaxy in any remotely meaningful fashion doesn't understand the sheer scale of galactic geography.

 

[Disemboweled Ego]

If the range is 500ly then the number of daisy chained colonies needed to reach the places many players will actually want to build will be ludicrously prohibitive. 44 for Colonia and 120+ for places like Beagle Point. If they did that, the whole feature would be meaningless for many players.

500Ly would make daisy chaining to colonia or anywhere in the galaxy doable for player groups or cooperative initiatives, though for colonia stuff you'd most likely want to build out of colonia to the core instead of building from the bubble to colonia.

If the range was above 500Ly you'd still just be much more soft capped by more difficult logistics when having to deliver materials to build up the colony.

The range only matters if you want to reach colonize a specific system, in some far out nebula for example. For game play it could be as low as 20 Ly from an inhabited system and there would be enough systems available or to rapidly daisy chain from.

My main concern about colonization is that it won't allow enough control - kinda like the industry building in Transport Tycoon Deluxe where you just choose a type of industry to build and where, pay a bunch of money to do it and that's it - there it does add to your gameplay by opening up new transpoort routes to construct, but in Elite a new A-B trade loop as a player won't be a game changer. It'd still something I could have fun with by putting stations in interesting places, but it wouldn't be the sort of deep management sim people might be expecting (even FDevs management games aren't that from what I've seen/heard)

 

[Cmdr Travers]

500ly would, I think, be insanely far. I expect significantly sub-100ly, and hopefully sub-50ly as the upper limit. The numbers to reach Colonia SHOULD be extreme, or we're talking about players being able to colonize every corner of the galaxy.
There are a few ways to add wiggle-room to that of course, such as costs going up the further your system is from another inhabited system, incentivising small jumps while allowing larger jumps for those prepared to fork out the extra. Which would help your casual/hardcore concerns too.

You're generally pretty negative about this, and from what FDev have said already I don't see that you should be. It seems pretty straightforward. Casual players will be able to manage to claim a system and 'architect' that, while the hardcore will be taking on multiple systems that require a greater investment in resources/time. Casual players shouldn't be planning their own personal Colonia bridge project. (Though possibly they could be part of one, built by a well co-ordinated player group.)

If you can build anywhere in the galaxy then I am insanely excited about this as I want to build a colony 40,000 light years from Sol. If we're limited to being close to already colonised space then the feature won't be for me.

 

[Cmdr Travers]

500ly would, I think, be insanely far. I expect significantly sub-100ly, and hopefully sub-50ly as the upper limit. The numbers to reach Colonia SHOULD be extreme, or we're talking about players being able to colonize every corner of the galaxy.
There are a few ways to add wiggle-room to that of course, such as costs going up the further your system is from another inhabited system, incentivising small jumps while allowing larger jumps for those prepared to fork out the extra. Which would help your casual/hardcore concerns too.

You're generally pretty negative about this, and from what FDev have said already I don't see that you should be. It seems pretty straightforward. Casual players will be able to manage to claim a system and 'architect' that, while the hardcore will be taking on multiple systems that require a greater investment in resources/time. Casual players shouldn't be planning their own personal Colonia bridge project. (Though possibly they could be part of one, built by a well co-ordinated player group.)

500Ly would make daisy chaining to colonia or anywhere in the galaxy doable for player groups or cooperative initiatives, though for colonia stuff you'd most likely want to build out of colonia to the core instead of building from the bubble to colonia.

If the range was above 500Ly you'd still just be much more soft capped by more difficult logistics when having to deliver materials to build up the colony.

The range only matters if you want to reach colonize a specific system, in some far out nebula for example. For game play it could be as low as 20 Ly from an inhabited system and there would be enough systems available or to rapidly daisy chain from.

My main concern about colonization is that it won't allow enough control - kinda like the industry building in Transport Tycoon Deluxe where you just choose a type of industry to build and where, pay a bunch of money to do it and that's it - there it does add to your gameplay by opening up new transpoort routes to construct, but in Elite a new A-B trade loop as a player won't be a game changer. It'd still something I could have fun with by putting stations in interesting places, but it wouldn't be the sort of deep management sim people might be expecting (even FDevs management games aren't that from what I've seen/heard)

I should add that I think a limit like 500ly would be very unlikely, given Frontier have already shown us an image of a colony ship that they says is far larger than a fleet carrier.

 

[Gabriel H]

I'd disagree with saying that credits are a barrier to entry as a blanket statement. If all the casual gamer (CG) wants to do is bounty hunting, then yes it will take an age. If however they focus on trading, then the CG can make upwards of 100m credits profit an hour with the right trade routes.

 

[Starshot_Jigawatts]

I'm very excited about colonisation and I'll be watching the Frontier livestream next week I've been getting ready for this since the beginning of the summer and I'm now all set up and ready to run with it on day one. However this does raise a concern, and it's something Frontier will really need to be aware of when they release the feature. That is excluding casual and returning gamers.

It's very clear that colonisation, like fleet carriers before it, will require a huge amount of credits in game. It's also clear, given how Frontier have laid out the scant details so far, that it'll be a time sink. Both of these are barriers to entry for all of those Cmdrs who either don't get a chance to play very often, or that will be returning to the game after a period away.

I also have a feeling that the day the feature drops there's going to be a rush to build colonies in all the good spots. This means every player who is in the game regularly and can commit time to it will immediately have a big advantage over gamers that can't commit the time.

I'm not sure what the solution to this is, I'd be interested in hearing all your opinions, and there might not even be a good solution. I do hope Frontier bear this in mind though.

Colonization playing solo probably isn't going to go well for anyone, nor should it honestly. Casual and returning gamers would do well to join a Squadron imo to truly get Colonization as it's meant to be experienced.

 

[Disemboweled Ego]

I should add that I think a limit like 500ly would be very unlikely, given Frontier have already shown us an image of a colony ship that they says is far larger than a fleet carrier.

I think 500Ly is extremely unlikely too and the most likely actual range is 20-40Ly or 100Ly if we're being optimistic.

 

[Cmdr Travers]

Colonization playing solo probably isn't going to go well for anyone, nor should it honestly. Casual and returning gamers would do well to join a Squadron imo to truly get Colonization as it's meant to be experienced.

I play solo all the time, but I will admit I have some fellow Cmdrs coming in with me to build a decent colony (announcements from Frontier permitting of course). But I can't see why a solo Cmdr having a colony wouldn't be successful. It should be as successful as owning your own fleet carrier. There are lots of things to do, from mining and setting up a market to sell it, to acting as a deep space port for explorers. I think that will be fun.

 

[Cmdr Travers]

I think 500Ly is extremely unlikely too and the most likely actual range is 20-40Ly or 100Ly if we're being optimistic.

If the limit was going to be so small, there'd be no need for these and you could do it with an Anaconda.

 

[Tifu]

Just a wild guess, but I think colonization costs will hover around the price of 5-10 carriers - plus their combined upkeep costs. Establishing the colony will be the "easy" part, keeping it funded is going to be tricky. How many fleet carriers have already been reclaimed & disassembled so far due to the owner not being able to pay the upkeep fees?

 

[Cmdr Travers]

Just a wild guess, but I think colonization costs will hover around the price of 5-10 carriers - plus their combined upkeep costs. Establishing the colony will be the "easy" part, keeping it funded is going to be tricky. How many fleet carriers have already been reclaimed & disassembled so far due to the owner not being able to pay the upkeep fees?

Only a very small percentage of players have that kind of cash knocking around. Frontier might pitch that, but in the way fleet carriers were initially going to be much more expensive, the player base will soon make them roll back on it.

I think the pricing will be something like 5 billion for the colonisation ship (plus loads of grind to equip it) and that will build your basic port. Then, Frontier have already said you can have a basic port or build on it. So I think costs there will vary from 1 billion for a small planetary outpost up to 50 billion for a huge starport.