No idea what just happened

[Thwarptide]

I’ve been working a system, getting the controlling Factions influence level down while raising another factions up just to start a war; and its been going very well.
The controlling faction has lost -8.6% this week alone. The other faction +4.3%
The controlling faction state is:
Boom
Civil liberty
Outbreak (as of this morning)
system security is medium

There have been no wars, no pirate attacks.
Everything is as calm as a system can get. I’ve not been attacking any factions since I started my agenda.
But this morning the controlling faction went into Outbreak AND suddenly there are 11 convoy beacons . I’ve never seen so many with so many T9’s or 10’s and not one of em gives up any valuable scan data. Then I counted 13 checkpoints. Its my understanding that those usually show up when something like piracy levels get nasty or players are attacking everything that moves in a system which eventually leads to lockdown, but it doesn’t look like that to me.

I have absolutely no clue what could have triggered all this unless a bug or its due to the fact that the controlling factions influence level has been dropped from 41.8% to 33.2%
I’m trying to learn this particular mechanism of the game, I just was not expecting all this weirdness to occur, just to start a war .
I have no idea what just happened.
Your thoughts?

 

[Dommarraa]

Outbreaks are not slider related, and just seem to happen on a long semi regular cycle.
Someone might come along and claim they know how to start or end them, but meh, observation bias

 

[Jmanis]

I’ve been working a system, getting the controlling Factions influence level down while raising another factions up just to start a war; and its been going very well.
The controlling faction has lost -8.6% this week alone. The other faction +4.3%
The controlling faction state is:
Boom
Civil liberty
Outbreak (as of this morning)
system security is medium

There have been no wars, no pirate attacks.
Everything is as calm as a system can get. I’ve not been attacking any factions since I started my agenda.
But this morning the controlling faction went into Outbreak AND suddenly there are 11 convoy beacons . I’ve never seen so many with so many T9’s or 10’s and not one of em gives up any valuable scan data. Then I counted 13 checkpoints. Its my understanding that those usually show up when something like piracy levels get nasty or players are attacking everything that moves in a system which eventually leads to lockdown, but it doesn’t look like that to me.

I have absolutely no clue what could have triggered all this unless a bug or its due to the fact that the controlling factions influence level has been dropped from 41.8% to 33.2%
I’m trying to learn this particular mechanism of the game, I just was not expecting all this weirdness to occur, just to start a war .
I have no idea what just happened.
Your thoughts?

Checkpoints also spawn for Outbreak, so that's normal.

Are you playing Horizons or Odyssey? There's a slighlity indeterminate condition in the game which causes an excessive volume of USS/POI to spawn, compared to 'normal' systems.

Depending on what you're doing, Outbreak is an entirely normal state (and unfortunately for you, a good one for the controlling faction if they are being supported).

 

[Jmanis]

Outbreaks are not slider related, and just seem to happen on a long semi regular cycle.
Someone might come along and claim they know how to start or end them, but meh, observation bias.

Just to expand on that a little for the OP, there are some definite ways to cause outbreak, but they're not consistently available or reliable. These are:

• Handing in Combat Bonds (Confirmed by FD in the BGS video I can't find at the moment, and also not relevant since no wars been going on)
• Completing missions which cause outbreak (such as Deliver Biowaste missions)

There's further speculation that trading biowaste on the market can cause outbreak, but that has never (and cannot) been proven[1]. Which Missions which cause outbreak are particularly difficult to find now, since Odyssey doesn't show (last i checked) non inf/rep effects of missions anymore. Horizons should though.

There is also a random uptick in the chance of outbreak which is easily outmatched if there's player support for a faction. This got introduced (for famine at the time as well, when it wasn't an economic state) because these things were simply never happening around the galaxy.

But typically, the methods of causing an outbreak are unknown.

[1] Some commodities are known to have different effects when sold on the market around + or - Econ/Security. This can be proven by observation of the relevant sliders. Since Outbreak is not a "slider" state, no effect causing it can be observed when selling something like biowaste, and there's enough noise to rule out the effectiveness of isolated tests.

 

[Esteban]

Do you have an idea of traffic levels in the system? They can give some hint about how likely it is that your work might not be as effective as you'd like. Random actions by non-interested traffic* can have a surprising level of impact.

* that is to say: pilots who are simply doing things (missions, commodity transactions, black market activity, etc.), not interested in - or cognizant of - BGS effects (or of the BGS at all).

 

[Thwarptide]

Checkpoints also spawn for Outbreak, so that's normal.

Are you playing Horizons or Odyssey? There's a slighlity indeterminate condition in the game which causes an excessive volume of USS/POI to spawn, compared to 'normal' systems.

Depending on what you're doing, Outbreak is an entirely normal state (and unfortunately for you, a good one for the controlling faction if they are being supported).

Horizons/PS4.
All I‘m doing is picking up passenger missions from the controlling faction, scraping the hull to fail. They lose influence
Switch ships real quick. accept all the data courier missions from the faction faction I’m trying to raise influence on. Taking em to the next system where the controlling faction also rules the roost and the 2nd faction has presence. Turn em in, grab data courier missions (for getting my rep back up) from the controlling Faction, return to the 1st system, rinse and repeat.)

The controlling faction runs two systems with 3 stations in one, 4 in the other, 500 lys outside the bubble, both systems serve as nothing more than parking lots for FC’s (new owners?) Theres a 3rd small system where you can make a bunch of fast cash running specific mission type.
I’ve been in the area way outside the bubble for 5 months participating in CZ’s, dinking around with how much I affected the outcomes. I haven’t fought a war for certain factions and not won the entire war.
Players seem pretty much inactive in local affairs and missions, which is why ”I think” I’ve had such a swift affect on ripping down the influence level of the controlling faction 8.6% since I started trying last Sunday (less than a week). I just knew players weren’t active here.

 

[Thwarptide]

Do you have an idea of traffic levels in the system? They can give some hint about how likely it is that your work might not be as effective as you'd like. Random actions by non-interested traffic* can have a surprising level of impact.

* that is to say: pilots who are simply doing things (missions, commodity transactions, black market activity, etc.), not interested in - or cognizant of - BGS effects (or of the BGS at all).

500 lys outside the bubble, The controlling faction runs two systems with 3 stations in one, 4 in the other. But both systems serve as nothing more than parking lots for FC’s (new owners?) Theres a 3rd small system where you can make a bunch of fast cash running specific mission type.
I’ve been in the area way outside the bubble for 5 months participating in CZ’s, dinking around with how much I affected the outcomes. I haven’t fought a war for any local factions and not won the entire span of the war. (Even when I fought for the underdogs)
Players seem pretty much inactive in local affairs and missions, which is why ”I think” I’ve had such a swift affect on ripping down the influence level of the controlling faction 8.6% since I started trying last Sunday (less than a week). Players just aren’t active here.

 

[Shir]

Years ago, after reading that selling biowaste at a port can cause an outbreak, i did an experiment. I got my Cutter and, for one (or maybe two weeks), i sold a few loads of it every day at a port in a system with a very small population, edge of bubble! Hehe, they ended up having an outbreak.. Not saying that that's your case, but i got reminded of the story..

 

[Jmanis]

All I‘m doing is picking up passenger missions from the controlling faction, scraping the hull to fail. They lose influence

Depending on the passenger type, that can also cause outbreak.

Don't worry about what's going on in other systems... outbreak is a system-local state, so other systems the faction is present doesn't matter.

If nobody is supporting the other faction, then Outbreak is bound to be likely at some point if you're regularly hitting them.

 

[Jmanis]

Years ago, after reading that selling biowaste at a port can cause an outbreak, i did an experiment. I got my Cutter and, for one (or maybe two weeks), i sold a few loads of it every day at a port in a system with a very small population, edge of bubble! Hehe, they ended up having an outbreak.. Not saying that that's your case, but i got reminded of the story..

On a contrast, I've had outbreak start in a relatively unpopulated system which I was routinely trading (good) medicines at... that's why I stick to it being an unproven thing. Again, not saying biowaste is not a thing (especially given that most other commodities reflect their BGS effects in both trade and missions), it's just unproven and unprovable because of the lack of ability to observe changes leading to the state occurring.

 

[Esteban]

500 lys outside the bubble,

Yes, that says a lot. Probably not likely to be traffic...

 

[Thwarptide]

So with all the input in the discussion, we can therefor deduce that most (if not all) Outbreaks are no different than seasonal flu outbreaks.
Now the big question is “why don’t most stations prepare in advance and stock up with medical supplies?”
Well, I don’t think it would change market demand. Buy now or buy later when ***t (bio waste) hits the fan.