Powerplay Weekly Statistics

[Ian Doncaster]

The monthly Powerplay Galnet post is out, showing not much of interest happening in the top 5. So, some more statistics of dubious relevance from ZYAJDANELPAF headquarters.

	Current value	Change from last cycle
Week	13	+1
Total System Count	9,966	+98
Stronghold Count	488	+38
Fortified Count	1,278	+26
Exploited Count	8,200	+34
Total Estimated CP Value (approximate cost to build the current structure from nothing)	4,050,400,000	+87,320,000
Cheapest Destruction Cost (i.e. cost to demote all current systems to Exploited)	1,754,400,000	+77,800,000
Stronghold Completion Percentage (all bubble, by CP value)	13.50%	+0.29%
Stronghold Completion Percentage (current systems, by CP value)	27.09%	+0.32%
Number of Powers gaining systems	10	-2
Projected weeks until all occupied systems are Fortified or better (using last four weeks to extrapolate, system count model)	143	+10
Projected weeks until all occupied systems are Fortified or better (using last four weeks to extrapolate, control point model)	49	+1

A surge in Acquisitions sees the first rise in the number of Exploited systems since Week 3, which combined with a big rise in the number of strongholds and fortified means that the net strengthening of systems is also at a recent high of +87 million CP (again, the highest since Week 3, and therefore the highest without Rares being available). Surprisingly, this took place even with two powers seeing a net loss of systems for the first time since week 7 - clearly not every player group is signed up to the coalition yet. As a result, the total CP value measure breaks the 4 billion barrier, having started PP2 just below 3 billion.

The conversion of exploited to fortified systems is also significantly increasing the percentage of CP stored in Fortified/Stronghold systems, and therefore the minimum number of Undermining control points required to destroy all systems increased by almost 78 million CP. Even the acquisition of an unusually large number of new systems did not significantly slow progress towards making all occupied systems into Strongholds, though it has pushed out the estimates on "time to Fortify everything" a little. There is quite a divergence between the two models at this stage, due to the difference in how they account for the long-term effect of merits used to reinforce systems from Fortified to Stronghold; the longer timescale is probably the more realistic one.

The next obvious milestone for expansion is a 10,000 system count, which is likely to be reached this week - and may also be accompanied by the 500 Strongholds milestone for consolidation.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

The project to reinforce the entire bubble continues...

	Current value	Change from last cycle
Week	14	+1
Total System Count	10,057	+91
Stronghold Count	516	+28
Fortified Count	1,314	+36
Exploited Count	8,227	+27
Total Estimated CP Value (approximate cost to build the current structure from nothing)	4,128,760,000	+78,360,000
Cheapest Destruction Cost (i.e. cost to demote all current systems to Exploited)	1,825,200,000	+70,800,000
Stronghold Completion Percentage (all bubble, by CP value)	13.76%	+0.26%
Stronghold Completion Percentage (current systems, by CP value)	27.37%	+0.29%
Number of Powers gaining systems	12	+2
Projected weeks until all occupied systems are Fortified or better (using last four weeks to extrapolate, system count model)	150	+7
Projected weeks until all occupied systems are Fortified or better (using last four weeks to extrapolate, control point model)	52	+3

Acquisitions continue to increase the number of Exploited systems this week, with Reinforcement concentrating on creating more Fortified than more Stronghold. As with last cycle, this adds almost 80 million CP to the collective strength, 70 million of it in non-Exploited systems, and we're back to all twelve Powers gaining net positions. The increasing number of Acquisitions means that despite heavy reinforcement, it is expected to take slightly longer to reinforce all of the currently occupied systems than before.

(For now, the estimate for the number of weeks needed to turn every system into a Stronghold continues to come down - but this is likely to turn around next month)

As expected, total systems pass the 10,000 mark and total Strongholds pass the 500 mark. There don't seem to be any particularly interesting round numbers coming up next week.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

A slight change in emphasis this week, with a much higher number of Exploited systems moving to Fortified

	Current value	Change from last cycle
Week	15	+1
Total System Count	10,128	+71
Stronghold Count	537	+19
Fortified Count	1,366	+52
Exploited Count	8,225	-2
Total Estimated CP Value (approximate cost to build the current structure from nothing)	4,201,300,000	+72,540,000
Cheapest Destruction Cost (i.e. cost to demote all current systems to Exploited)	1,898,300,000	+73,100,000
Stronghold Completion Percentage (all bubble, by CP value)	14.00%	+0.24%
Stronghold Completion Percentage (current systems, by CP value)	27.65%	+0.28%
Number of Powers gaining systems	12	==
Projected weeks until all occupied systems are Fortified or better (using last four weeks to extrapolate, system count model)	151	+1
Projected weeks until all occupied systems are Fortified or better (using last four weeks to extrapolate, control point model)	54	+2

Acquisitions, on the other hand, slow down a bit, with the net result that the number of Exploited systems marginally falls - and therefore the "time to complete occupied systems" estimates stay relatively stable. Similarly, the Cheapest Destruction Cost estimate actually rises slightly faster than the Total CP estimate. As with the previous week, all Powers gain net systems, though some only just.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

Week 15 was very similar to week 14, overall

	Current value	Change from last cycle
Week	16	+1
Total System Count	10,201	+73
Stronghold Count	562	+25
Fortified Count	1,410	+46
Exploited Count	8,229	+4
Total Estimated CP Value (approximate cost to build the current structure from nothing)	4,275,120,000	+73,820,000
Cheapest Destruction Cost (i.e. cost to demote all current systems to Exploited)	1,971,000,000	+72,700,000
Stronghold Completion Percentage (all bubble, by CP value)	14.25%	+0.25%
Stronghold Completion Percentage (current systems, by CP value)	27.94%	+0.29%
Number of Powers gaining systems	12	==
Projected weeks until all occupied systems are Fortified or better (using last four weeks to extrapolate, system count model)	155	+4
Projected weeks until all occupied systems are Fortified or better (using last four weeks to extrapolate, control point model)	57	+3

Note the consistency of the rise in estimated CP value - whatever else changes, net fortification has been somewhere around 75M control points every week. The rise in occupied systems is slightly outpacing their fortification still, though not significantly.

It seems likely that weeks 16 and 17 will be much the same; week 18 may be the one which comes with a bit more change.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

As expected, a similar week 16 to the previous ones. The Power groups may have their fancy strategies but it's all part of the tide.

	Current value	Change from last cycle
Week	17	+1
Total System Count	10,277	+76
Stronghold Count	586	+24
Fortified Count	1,446	+36
Exploited Count	8,245	+16
Total Estimated CP Value (approximate cost to build the current structure from nothing)	4,344,400,000	+69,280,000
Cheapest Destruction Cost (i.e. cost to demote all current systems to Exploited)	2,035,800,000	+64,800,000
Stronghold Completion Percentage (all bubble, by CP value)	14.48%	+0.23%
Stronghold Completion Percentage (current systems, by CP value)	28.18%	+0.26%
Number of Powers gaining systems	12	==
Projected weeks until all occupied systems are Fortified or better (using last four weeks to extrapolate, system count model)	156	+1
Projected weeks until all occupied systems are Fortified or better (using last four weeks to extrapolate, control point model)	60	+3

Another milestone hit as the Cheapest Destruction measure now estimates over 2 billion Control Points stored in Fortified and Stronghold systems. This means that the collective position is almost three times stronger than it was at the start of Powerplay 2.

A move back towards Acquisition sees the fortification timescales stretch out slightly, and the total estimated CP increase drop marginally below 70 million for the first time since week 9. Given the relatively crude nature of the estimate there's probably not too much that can be read into this.

 

[Melanthes]

Hmm, I wonder if FDev at some point adds a decay function. Might not be much of a game if everything is forted and UM seems to be way rarer.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

I think all an externally-imposed decay would do is to make the organised groups focus even more on reinforcing their existing territory and even less on new acquisitions and attacking each other. If the aim is to encourage inter-power conflict then a lot of things would need to change around both undermining as an activity and the actual value of holding territory in both a general and specific sense.

 

[Melanthes]

I think the way UM works is just against the general ethos of many players. Effectively underminining means you are essentially a privateer, i.e. a criminal acting on behalf of another power. And that means high notoriety and bounties you can't pay off. If you are fine with that UM is okayish if a bit grindy.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

Here's week 17's results. Things generally a bit slower this week than the previous ones.

	Current value	Change from last cycle
Week	18	+1
Total System Count	10,327	+50
Stronghold Count	612	+26
Fortified Count	1,468	+2
Exploited Count	8,247	+2
Total Estimated CP Value (approximate cost to build the current structure from nothing)	4,401,560,000	+57,160,000
Cheapest Destruction Cost (i.e. cost to demote all current systems to Exploited)	2,092,400,000	+56,600,000
Stronghold Completion Percentage (all bubble, by CP value)	11.77%	-2.71%
Stronghold Completion Percentage (current systems, by CP value)	28.41%	+0.23%
Number of Powers gaining systems	10	-2
Projected weeks until all occupied systems are Fortified or better (using last four weeks to extrapolate, system count model)	164	+8
Projected weeks until all occupied systems are Fortified or better (using last four weeks to extrapolate, control point model)	63	+3

As well as net fortification reducing slightly, one Power (Patreus) actually loses a net system, and Torval doesn't gain any, so it's been a relatively bad week for the Twelve Coalition here. Still, overall progress has been made.

The more significant change, of course, is Wednesday's introduction of colonisation: there are already almost 5000 new system claims known to be in progress - and while some of them will fail due to overconfidence (soloing an Orbis is a reasonable thing to try, right?) the successful ones may well likely set off even more. As a result, the estimated Stronghold Completion Percentage (entire bubble) drops substantially, and will likely keep doing so.

Gaining 50 systems a week while Colonisation adds thousands is clearly never going to come close to filling the bubble now - perhaps Frontier would consider re-enabling rares and S&R to allow faster Acquisition and Reinforcement of systems now that there's no need to hold it back?

 

[Agrippa]

Coalition?

What is best in life? To strike unseen, corrupt their data networks, and watch their control collapse as they scramble for reinforcements in vain.

 

[Danieros]

Gaining 50 systems a week while Colonisation adds thousands is clearly never going to come close to filling the bubble now - perhaps Frontier would consider re-enabling rares and S&R to allow faster Acquisition and Reinforcement of systems now that there's no need to hold it back?

Quite an interesting shift looking at just a few days of Colonization. If nothing changes balance-wise, I suspect it won't be just the amount of free systems outpacing the Powers growth, but even minor factions will become larger than any Power.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

but even minor factions will become larger than any Power.

Very likely. Canonn for example is already up to at least 335 controlled systems (was already large before, bubble-edge position) and can gain a new one for maybe 10 player-hours work if pure expansionism is the goal. Acquisition of a new Powerplay system would need ~50k/hour merit earning rates to match that rate and the need to Fortify before expanding onwards means even that's a substantial underestimate.

Torval on a mere 447 could certainly be overtaken by Thursday if anyone was aiming for that. Catching up to Mahon would take a little longer, but not much.

 

[Agrippa]

Ye, but BGS is dead. Nothing says your dictatorship doesn't count like pirate banners all over or imperial eagles in a Fed station. The fun is not the growing number, but the conflicts.

 

[Rubbernuke]

The other is that BGS empires are essentially spilt rice- all over the place. Unlike PP there is no strategic overview or objective other than going viral and spreading as much as you can. TBlazers has also made BGS empires moot in that space is now infinite, so you have infinite gardens

It will be interesting to see if Vanguards changes this, and brings in PP2 like decorations to provide a sense of 'place'.

 

[madmongoose]

I think the way UM works is just against the general ethos of many players. Effectively underminining means you are essentially a privateer, i.e. a criminal acting on behalf of another power. And that means high notoriety and bounties you can't pay off. If you are fine with that UM is okayish if a bit grindy.

I'd say it's less about that and more about the massive mechanical penalties that flat out discourage anyone but the most determined. Likewise, for non-combat powers it's nonsensical to target combat powers, if you drop a system it will be taken back by a combat power easily due to the bonuses they get to bounty hunting and PPCZ that non-combat doesn't. So, you fight at a 20-50% disadvantage to drop the system, then a 50% disadvantage to acquire. When you could just grab a system somewhere else with no penalty or conflict. And what does it matter if you have HIP 1234 or HIP 5544? there's only a few spots in the bubble worth contesting for emotional reasons. Ofc there's also the bug/feature that half the levers stop working on strongholds, so if the enemy strongholds it's game over.

 

[Agrippa]

Several powers are extremely well prepared for strategic UM, notably some who don't really do it. The disadvantage depends solely on the way you do it.

 

[Melanthes]

I'd say it's less about that and more about the massive mechanical penalties that flat out discourage anyone but the most determined. Likewise, for non-combat powers it's nonsensical to target combat powers, if you drop a system it will be taken back by a combat power easily due to the bonuses they get to bounty hunting and PPCZ that non-combat doesn't. So, you fight at a 20-50% disadvantage to drop the system, then a 50% disadvantage to acquire. When you could just grab a system somewhere else with no penalty or conflict. And what does it matter if you have HIP 1234 or HIP 5544? there's only a few spots in the bubble worth contesting for emotional reasons. Ofc there's also the bug/feature that half the levers stop working on strongholds, so if the enemy strongholds it's game over.

If you fight by simply applying pressure against a strong lever, then yes, you are disadvantaged. However, that is simply the worst way to fight.

 

[serakfalcon]

If you fight by simply applying pressure against a strong lever, then yes, you are disadvantaged. However, that is simply the worst way to fight.

That's the thing though, the UM penalties are universal. And half the non-combat levers are disabled or not working properly. So if fighting at all is 'the worse way to fight' what do you think people will do?

 

[Agrippa]

Assuming I as a Torval pledge undermine Aisling I get up to 500 merits for ass and pol data. That's an advantage rather than a disadvantage.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

Week 18 sees quite a slowdown in Powerplay activity as everyone is suddenly busy with other stuff.

	Current value	Change from last cycle
Week	19	+1
Total System Count	10,338	+11
Stronghold Count	624	+12
Fortified Count	1,508	+40
Exploited Count	8,206	-41
Total Estimated CP Value (approximate cost to build the current structure from nothing)	4,440,080,000	+38,520,000
Cheapest Destruction Cost (i.e. cost to demote all current systems to Exploited)	2,142,400,000	+50,600,000
Stronghold Completion Percentage (all bubble, by CP value)	Measure Retired	Measure Retired
Stronghold Completion Percentage (current systems, by CP value)	28.63%	+0.22%
Number of Powers gaining systems	10	==
Projected weeks until all occupied systems are Fortified or better (using last four weeks to extrapolate, system count model)	173	+9
Projected weeks until all occupied systems are Fortified or better (using last four weeks to extrapolate, control point model)	67	+4

Reinforcement of existing systems continues at a roughly similar rate to before, but Acquisition almost entirely stops, and a few systems get Undermined too (LYR and AD the two who lose net systems this week), so the total system count barely moves.

The overall CP value therefore has its lowest-ever estimated increase, though the CDC estimate of how many merits are being added to Fortified/Stronghold systems continues to rise.

With total inhabited or pending systems now at almost 40,000, the Stronghold Completion Percentage (all bubble) is retired - there is no longer any practical possibility of this ever being possible without major changes to both Powerplay and Colonisation.