Powerplay Weekly Statistics

Interesting.

I do wonder how consistent it is long-term, since I do occasionally get EDDN data suggesting that previously inhabited systems now have zero population, and it must have had a non-zero update at some point for that to be noteworthy.
It's not zero in game though I bet. It's an issue with edmc connector. That's what I used that sent the zeros.
 
I doubt EDMC would misread the population reported from the Journal, so I'd suspect a game bug where the in-game population report and the journal population report can somehow be read from different mismatching sources.
 
I doubt EDMC would misread the population reported from the Journal, so I'd suspect a game bug where the in-game population report and the journal population report can somehow be read from different mismatching sources.

It should be a very old, rare bug. Your game loads with an ancient cache for galmap and that will cause the journals to be sent incorrectly too - populations will show as some very old number, which for Trailblazers player-architected systems will be 0. I don't remember right now, but even Horizons-populated systems may show as unpopulated 0 too. Controlling government types/superpowers (can't check what the controlling faction is from galmap, though) will be different too as it is reflecting the reality from back when this cache is from. Pretty sure it isn't a day-one starting galaxy BGS state though.
 
It should be a very old, rare bug. Your game loads with an ancient cache for galmap and that will cause the journals to be sent incorrectly too - populations will show as some very old number, which for Trailblazers player-architected systems will be 0. I don't remember right now, but even Horizons-populated systems may show as unpopulated 0 too. Controlling government types/superpowers (can't check what the controlling faction is from galmap, though) will be different too as it is reflecting the reality from back when this cache is from. Pretty sure it isn't a day-one starting galaxy BGS state though.
Interestingly, the cache can be pinpointed very precisely to Update 2.2 Beta - it contains the original 2.2 state of some Colonia region systems like Desy and Ogmar ... but with their 2.2 Beta economies, not the slightly different ones they eventually released with in 2.2 live.
 
Week 30 is much the same as week 29 at the aggregate level in terms of results, though how it got there is a bit different.

Current valueChange from last cycle
Week31+1
Total System Count11,102+68
Stronghold Count807+11
Fortified Count1,859+28
Exploited Count8,436+29
Total Estimated CP Value (approximate cost to build the current structure from nothing) 3,162,852,000+34,058,000*
Cheapest Destruction Cost (i.e. cost to demote all current systems to Exploited) 2,133,660,000+30,520,000*
Stronghold Completion Percentage (current systems, by CP value)20.35%+0.10%*
Number of Powers gaining systems11-1
Projected weeks until all occupied systems are Fortified or better (using last four weeks to extrapolate, system count model)616+99
Projected weeks until all occupied systems are Fortified or better (using last four weeks to extrapolate, control point model)216+57
Reinforcement : Undermining ratio (CP)4.6-5.0
Acquisition target estimate20,033+340
Total net reinforcement estimate (CP)38,614,651-2,460,479
Minor Factions larger than smallest Power7+1
Powers smaller than largest Minor Faction10+1
* Estimator changed slightly, difference compared to previous week on new estimator

The big change is the drop in the reinforcement-undermining ratio: while remaining massively positive, 4.6:1 is the lowest on record. Total reinforcement was up slightly on the previous week, but total undermining doubled to narrowly exceed 10 million.

On the excess of free space side, total Acquisition targets passed 20,000 for the first time and we have two further growths in minor faction sizes, with the Dukes of Mikunn narrowly overtaking ALD on confirmed populated systems, while at the other end of the board, the Winged Hussars become the 7th minor faction to exceed Torval's size. The increase in undermining and the continuation of acquisition also means that the "weeks until every held system is fortified" estimates are rapidly accelerating, though reinforcement still remains the fastest action overall.
 
Week 32 sees a swing back to Acquisition over Reinforcement again, and back to all 12 Powers making gains.

Current valueChange from last cycle
Week32+1
Total System Count11,194+92
Stronghold Count821+14
Fortified Count1,883+24
Exploited Count8,490+54
Total Estimated CP Value (approximate cost to build the current structure from nothing) 3,202,000,000+39,148,000
Cheapest Destruction Cost (i.e. cost to demote all current systems to Exploited) 2,166,220,000+32,560,000
Stronghold Completion Percentage (current systems, by CP value)20.43%+0.08%
Number of Powers gaining systems12+1
Projected weeks until all occupied systems are Fortified or better (using last four weeks to extrapolate, system count model)543-99
Projected weeks until all occupied systems are Fortified or better (using last four weeks to extrapolate, control point model)183-33
Reinforcement : Undermining ratio (CP)9.6+5.0
Acquisition target estimate20,321+292
Total net reinforcement estimate (CP)43,079,459+4,464,808
Minor Factions larger than smallest Power7==
Powers smaller than largest Minor Faction12+2 (measure to be retired)
Minor Factions larger than largest Power (new measure)1+1
Interestingly, despite this week's heavy Acquisition the projection for "weeks until done" comes down slightly (it's based on a four week averaging), suggesting that we may be approaching the new stable point for that measure. To aid this mass fortification project, the Reinforcement/Undermining balance returns to more normal levels close to 10:1 after last week's unusually high total undermining.

On the total space side, the confirmed system count for Dukes of Mikunn narrowly takes them above Aisling Duval, so we've got a change in metric for future weeks: rather than measuring how many powers are smaller than the largest faction (as there's no plausible way this doesn't stay as "all of them") instead I'll be tracking how many minor factions are larger than the largest Power. This is likely to stay at '1' for quite a while, though, as the next two largest are rising much more slowly.
 
did Fdev changed the amount of points between each steps of reinforcement ? it seems to me that from 0 exploited to 0 fortified, requirement is now 350 000 instead of 333 000.
 
Not that they documented changing. Do you have an example system that makes you think that?
start from 0 this cycle

1749641323202.png
 
Curiously, checking some larger (though not quite as large) swings elsewhere, I don't get estimates for the width of that band over 325,000 - and the Fortified band varies between <600k and >700k wide.

I wonder if the bands don't display linearly any more (acquisition never did)
 
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Week 32 is a bit more reinforcement-heavy than the previous one, though everyone manages to find time to gain at least one system.

Current valueChange from last cycle
Week33+1
Total System Count11,272+78
Stronghold Count837+16
Fortified Count1,914+31
Exploited Count8,521+31
Total Estimated CP Value (approximate cost to build the current structure from nothing) 3,244,922,000+42,922,000
Cheapest Destruction Cost (i.e. cost to demote all current systems to Exploited) 2,205,360,000+39,140,000
Stronghold Completion Percentage (current systems, by CP value)20.56%+0.13%
Number of Powers gaining systems12==
Projected weeks until all occupied systems are Fortified or better (using last four weeks to extrapolate, system count model)395-148
Projected weeks until all occupied systems are Fortified or better (using last four weeks to extrapolate, control point model)135-48
Reinforcement : Undermining ratio (CP)7.6-2.0
Acquisition target estimate20,633+312
Total net reinforcement estimate (CP)42,007,524-1,072,025
Minor Factions larger than smallest Power7==
Minor Factions larger than largest Power1==
There's a slightly larger amount of undermining than last week, but overall the numbers are staying pretty stable and the progress in terms of fortified systems is actually faster.

The bubble continues to grow, but not in a way that significantly affects the figures this time.
 
Curiously, checking some larger (though not quite as large) swings elsewhere, I don't get estimates for the width of that band over 325,000 - and the Fortified band varies between <600k and >700k wide.

I wonder if the bands don't display linearly any more (acquisition never did)
as the end of the cycle is near the end, it seems clearer, in some of the systems when i was, the numbers are :
  • acquisition : 36 000 / 120 000
  • reinforcement : 350 000 / 650 000 / 1 000 000

but the old numbers, 333 000 / 667 000, have been valid during many month. The change is quite recent, maybe was with last update.
 
Week 33 brings Powerplay closer to its true peaceful meaning.

Current valueChange from last cycle
Week34+1
Total System Count11,348+76
Stronghold Count855+18
Fortified Count1,946+32
Exploited Count8,547+26
Total Estimated CP Value (approximate cost to build the current structure from nothing)3,335,675,000+46,050,000 *
Cheapest Destruction Cost (i.e. cost to demote all current systems to Exploited)2,267,300,000+42,800,000 *
Stronghold Completion Percentage (current systems, by CP value)21.00%+0.18% *
Number of Powers gaining systems12==
Projected weeks until all occupied systems are Fortified or better (using last four weeks to extrapolate, system count model)344-51
Projected weeks until all occupied systems are Fortified or better (using last four weeks to extrapolate, control point model)117-19
Reinforcement : Undermining ratio (CP)14.0+6.4
Acquisition target estimate20,932+301
Total net reinforcement estimate (CP)32,507,693-9,499,831
Minor Factions larger than smallest Power7==
Minor Factions larger than largest Power1==
* Updated estimated to use new figures for Exploited and Fortified band sizes.

With the only effective undermining method now disabled, half of the weekly undermining disappears entirely - though, interestingly, so does about 10 million control points of reinforcement.

The net effect is basically nil - Acquisition and Reinforcement both proceed at roughly the same pace they had in previous weeks, showing how cosmetic Undermining was in the first place. Another 300 systems get added to the Acquirable pool, which continues to outpace the rate of Acquisition, and the estimated weeks until Fortification is complete falls again.

It looks like we might be in this new setup for a while, so there's a lot of opportunity for powers to gain even more territory.
 
Week 34 sees a substantial jump in new Acquisitions with over 200 new systems added.

Current valueChange from last cycle
Week35+1
Total System Count11,560+212
Stronghold Count878+23
Fortified Count1,971+35
Exploited Count8,711+164
Total Estimated CP Value (approximate cost to build the current structure from nothing)3,402,125,000+66,450,000
Cheapest Destruction Cost (i.e. cost to demote all current systems to Exploited)2,313,250,000+45,95,000
Stronghold Completion Percentage (current systems, by CP value)21.02%+0.02%
Number of Powers gaining systems12==
Projected weeks until all occupied systems are Fortified or better (using last four weeks to extrapolate, system count model)477+133
Projected weeks until all occupied systems are Fortified or better (using last four weeks to extrapolate, control point model)146+29
Reinforcement : Undermining ratio (CP)17.9+3.9
Acquisition target estimate21,192+260
Total net reinforcement estimate (CP)40,421,564+7,913,871
Minor Factions larger than smallest Power7==
Minor Factions larger than largest Power1==
As a result, despite there also being significant Reinforcement, the Stronghold Completion Percentage barely moves, and the weeks until Fortification completes get much longer again. Total Reinforcement rises significantly, and total Undermining drops slightly further, to see a record 17.9 ratio in favour of Reinforcement. It was running over 20:1 at many points during the week, so more may be possible.

Torval's recent gains almost take her back above the 7th minor faction in size, as the rate of new system claims gradually continues to decline.
 
Week 35 sees a massive (Ngurii-powered?) leap in acquisitions with almost 300 net systems gained.

Current valueChange from last cycle
Week36+1
Total System Count11,859+299
Stronghold Count896+18
Fortified Count2,003+28
Exploited Count8,711+164
Total Estimated CP Value (approximate cost to build the current structure from nothing)3,476,050,000+73,925,000
Cheapest Destruction Cost (i.e. cost to demote all current systems to Exploited)2,356,050,000+42,800,000
Stronghold Completion Percentage (current systems, by CP value)20.94%-0.08%
Number of Powers gaining systems12==
Projected weeks until all occupied systems are Fortified or better (using last four weeks to extrapolate, system count model)1043+566
Projected weeks until all occupied systems are Fortified or better (using last four weeks to extrapolate, control point model)274+128
Reinforcement : Undermining ratio (CP)18.4+0.5
Acquisition target estimate21,370+178
Total net reinforcement estimate (CP)48,161,706+7,740,142
Minor Factions larger than smallest Power6-1
Minor Factions larger than largest Power1==
We also pass 2000 Fortified systems for the first time and are coming up rapidly on 9000 Exploited. As a result of the extensive Acquisition, the CP value estimator exceeds +70 million change for the first time in a while - but the Stronghold completion percentage actually goes backwards as Acquisition outpaces Reinforcement! (The Fortification completion timers, on a four-week average, stay finite for now but won't if this continues)

The balance of Reinforcement to Undermining stabilises out, barely changed on last week - though significant increases were seen in Reinforcement totals rising to their highest estimated level since April.

On the colonisation side, the map expands further - though Torval's recent acquisitions move her ahead of the 7th largest minor faction by a single system. With Colonisation slowing down a bit, she might even be able to stay there if this rate of acquisition can continue.

Obviously there's a bunch of rule changes coming in for this week. I don't expect the further changes to merit awards to have much effect, as they're not touching CPs ... but the CGs themselves are currently piling on sufficient Undermining to their targeted systems that there might be a surprising blip in the reinforcement/undermining ratio - at current rates the two primary target systems are likely to see multiple millions of points of undermining (and a substantial but lower amount of reinforcement) by the end of the week, which will probably make this a record week for Undermining and give a (misleadingly!) closer-to-even ratio.
 
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