This is one part of a two pronged discussion on the apparent lack of traders in Open. Especially in relation to calls for changes to modes, CGs, bonuses for open, etc.
Please note, let's not turn this all into an open vs group vs solo debate, otherwise it will get locked and redirected quickly. Let's focus on the specific topic. Disclaimer, i don't trade, i've tried it, don't like it, so this doesn't apply to me. I don't even take part in trade CGs in any mode.
This first one is basically for you to consider regarding the mechnaics of trade, and how it applies to the possibility of making a profit and having PvP encounters with traders in open, whether they be ganks or pirate attempts.
We can consider both regular trading and Trade CGs.
Let's look at some maths first for some regular trading.
I loaded up eddb.io and selected the highest paying loop for this example. For simplicity, we will consider a 1t cargo hold and keep in mind this scales depending on ship.
We have a route with Titanium one way, buying for 1025 credits, selling for 1284, with a profit of 259. The other way we buy imperial slaves for 12635, sell for 16919, for a profit of 4284.
Now, let's factor in a single loss of cargo, how many clean runs do you need to make in order to break even or make a profit?
Titanium: 1025/259 = 3.9. Ok, let's call that 4 runs.
Imp Slaves: 12635/4284 = 2.9. Let's call that 3 runs.
Now, a trader has to evaluate risk. You have to assume that every hollow square/triangle is potentially a ganker. You cannot assume they are a pirate. Even if someone says they are a pirate, its a risk trusting them. Some players will be tricksy. Logic dictates you should always run, unless you cannot. If you cannot run, then you are going to die sooner or later, and that's where the maths might bite you badly.
So, we are now making a further assumption, assuming there is always a chance of a PvPer around who wants to kill or pirate you (but remember, you don't know). This is the ideal some PvPers want, always targets, so let's give them that. For every PvPer, there is a trader (apparently, if you listen to some people, there are curerntly zero traders per PvPer, which is hard to believe, but people are saying this). If there are more PvPers than traders in a system, then the situation is of course much worse. If there are more traders than PvPers, then its good for the traders, as risk is shared wider.
So, back to the maths. Our valiant trader has to make 5 clean runs of titanium one way and 4 clean runs of slates the other to make a profit. The first 4 and 3 runs are basically just compensating for the risk of loss of all cargo. And keep in mind, we haven't even got around to factoring in ship insurance yet!
Now, ask yourself, if a trader can make a combined 9 clean runs past you, what are the chances you will get them on the 10th, or the 11th or the 12th? If they can make so many clean runs, you're only going to get them if they make a slip. If they can't make those clean runs reliably, then there is zero point in trading in Open because they will be running at zero profit.
Let's look at the CG scenario quickly for comparison. I don't have any numbers here, but often the trade goods are barely profitable, as the market quickly becomes saturated. The profit comes from completing the CG, and then you are in effect in indirect PvP with the other traders, competing for the higher places. Again, if you are getting interdicted and robbed or killed, you are going to get a lower rating than others who are getting through... and remember, there are always plenty of gankers around trade CGs, not just pirates. Die too much, and your CG results won't even cover your insurance and commodity costs. Worth thinking about.
So, let's focus on the less risky and potentially higher profit bulk trading, and pick a ship build to consider. Let's quickly build a trade conda.
Ok, its a bit of a hack, i'm sure people can find reasons to increase or lower the cost, or to make it more surviable, but let's just roll with it. If you want to make your own variants and consider the costs, do so.
http://coriolis.edcd.io/outfit/anac...404040605054f04040403030301.Iw18ZlA=.Aw18ZlA=.
Considering standard rebuy, that's 13,233,000.
Cargo space 404.
How many loops do we need to make to cover the insurance?
Loop profit is 404*4543 = 1,835,000.
How many loops to cover insurance? 12233000/1835000 = over 7 loops required, that's 14 trips.
Combine that with cargo loss, you are looking at a minimum of 11 loops to break even, 12 or more to even start making a profit.
Assuming a minimum of 5 minutes per run (in most cases, it will be longer when taking into account everything from flight time, jump time, docking time, and buying and selling cargo, that means 12*2*5 = 2 hours... and i think i'm being generous here.
One death in all that, and boom, bye bye profit. 2 hours play down the drain.
Can you even afford to trust someone claiming to be a pirate looking at those odds? Fighting any interdiction looks very tempting.... and then, there is always the possibility of someone running a sidewinder into you at the station if you dare edge over 100 m/s.
Ok, people can play with the numbers, and i'm sure they can come up with different amounts. But i hope this serves to show the incredible risk a trader in open takes if they are flying in an area with one or more PvPers in it. The pirate or ganker in turn, has relatively low risk, unless they are facing bounty hunters in the area.
Keep this in mind when you make calls for things like open only bonuses, or removal of modes. Traders might look at those odds and simply say, forget that for a game of soldiers, and the result might not be what you hope for.
Also keep this in mind with the next thread i'm going to make, hopefully posted soon.
(Please remember, don't turn this into an open vs group vs solo debate, otherwise it will get locked and redirected to hotel california. Focus on the risk vs profit to traders in open in potential PvP situations).
EDIT: Yes, i know, someone can also trade in perfect peace on the outskits of the bubble and never see another player.... but that doesn't help those wanting more targets in open, and makes you wonder why any sort of open bonus should exist for those people
Please note, let's not turn this all into an open vs group vs solo debate, otherwise it will get locked and redirected quickly. Let's focus on the specific topic. Disclaimer, i don't trade, i've tried it, don't like it, so this doesn't apply to me. I don't even take part in trade CGs in any mode.
This first one is basically for you to consider regarding the mechnaics of trade, and how it applies to the possibility of making a profit and having PvP encounters with traders in open, whether they be ganks or pirate attempts.
We can consider both regular trading and Trade CGs.
Let's look at some maths first for some regular trading.
I loaded up eddb.io and selected the highest paying loop for this example. For simplicity, we will consider a 1t cargo hold and keep in mind this scales depending on ship.
We have a route with Titanium one way, buying for 1025 credits, selling for 1284, with a profit of 259. The other way we buy imperial slaves for 12635, sell for 16919, for a profit of 4284.
Now, let's factor in a single loss of cargo, how many clean runs do you need to make in order to break even or make a profit?
Titanium: 1025/259 = 3.9. Ok, let's call that 4 runs.
Imp Slaves: 12635/4284 = 2.9. Let's call that 3 runs.
Now, a trader has to evaluate risk. You have to assume that every hollow square/triangle is potentially a ganker. You cannot assume they are a pirate. Even if someone says they are a pirate, its a risk trusting them. Some players will be tricksy. Logic dictates you should always run, unless you cannot. If you cannot run, then you are going to die sooner or later, and that's where the maths might bite you badly.
So, we are now making a further assumption, assuming there is always a chance of a PvPer around who wants to kill or pirate you (but remember, you don't know). This is the ideal some PvPers want, always targets, so let's give them that. For every PvPer, there is a trader (apparently, if you listen to some people, there are curerntly zero traders per PvPer, which is hard to believe, but people are saying this). If there are more PvPers than traders in a system, then the situation is of course much worse. If there are more traders than PvPers, then its good for the traders, as risk is shared wider.
So, back to the maths. Our valiant trader has to make 5 clean runs of titanium one way and 4 clean runs of slates the other to make a profit. The first 4 and 3 runs are basically just compensating for the risk of loss of all cargo. And keep in mind, we haven't even got around to factoring in ship insurance yet!
Now, ask yourself, if a trader can make a combined 9 clean runs past you, what are the chances you will get them on the 10th, or the 11th or the 12th? If they can make so many clean runs, you're only going to get them if they make a slip. If they can't make those clean runs reliably, then there is zero point in trading in Open because they will be running at zero profit.
Let's look at the CG scenario quickly for comparison. I don't have any numbers here, but often the trade goods are barely profitable, as the market quickly becomes saturated. The profit comes from completing the CG, and then you are in effect in indirect PvP with the other traders, competing for the higher places. Again, if you are getting interdicted and robbed or killed, you are going to get a lower rating than others who are getting through... and remember, there are always plenty of gankers around trade CGs, not just pirates. Die too much, and your CG results won't even cover your insurance and commodity costs. Worth thinking about.
So, let's focus on the less risky and potentially higher profit bulk trading, and pick a ship build to consider. Let's quickly build a trade conda.
Ok, its a bit of a hack, i'm sure people can find reasons to increase or lower the cost, or to make it more surviable, but let's just roll with it. If you want to make your own variants and consider the costs, do so.
http://coriolis.edcd.io/outfit/anac...404040605054f04040403030301.Iw18ZlA=.Aw18ZlA=.
Considering standard rebuy, that's 13,233,000.
Cargo space 404.
How many loops do we need to make to cover the insurance?
Loop profit is 404*4543 = 1,835,000.
How many loops to cover insurance? 12233000/1835000 = over 7 loops required, that's 14 trips.
Combine that with cargo loss, you are looking at a minimum of 11 loops to break even, 12 or more to even start making a profit.
Assuming a minimum of 5 minutes per run (in most cases, it will be longer when taking into account everything from flight time, jump time, docking time, and buying and selling cargo, that means 12*2*5 = 2 hours... and i think i'm being generous here.
One death in all that, and boom, bye bye profit. 2 hours play down the drain.
Can you even afford to trust someone claiming to be a pirate looking at those odds? Fighting any interdiction looks very tempting.... and then, there is always the possibility of someone running a sidewinder into you at the station if you dare edge over 100 m/s.
Ok, people can play with the numbers, and i'm sure they can come up with different amounts. But i hope this serves to show the incredible risk a trader in open takes if they are flying in an area with one or more PvPers in it. The pirate or ganker in turn, has relatively low risk, unless they are facing bounty hunters in the area.
Keep this in mind when you make calls for things like open only bonuses, or removal of modes. Traders might look at those odds and simply say, forget that for a game of soldiers, and the result might not be what you hope for.
Also keep this in mind with the next thread i'm going to make, hopefully posted soon.
(Please remember, don't turn this into an open vs group vs solo debate, otherwise it will get locked and redirected to hotel california. Focus on the risk vs profit to traders in open in potential PvP situations).
EDIT: Yes, i know, someone can also trade in perfect peace on the outskits of the bubble and never see another player.... but that doesn't help those wanting more targets in open, and makes you wonder why any sort of open bonus should exist for those people
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