Retreat: what is the day that a Faction must absolutely be under 2.5% ?

In my experience its the 5th they need to be under 2.5%

Had 2 retreats fail previously because they crept over 2.5% on 5th day tick even though they were back down at 1% at the end on the 6th days tick. Think that the retreat technically ends at the 5th day tick because it always stops spawning retreat USS for the faction after that on last day.
 
Unless its changed, it needs to for the duration of the retreat it must not rise above the threshold.

this was difficult Impossible to monitor as the BGS was happening in real time in the background (Dav Stott)
 
Day 5 tick into day 6 has to be under 2.5% to retreat. I've heard of other scenarios as well, but this is the general rule.

Also note: look in station services / system map for faction % inf. Here it shows more decimal places, so it might say 2.5% in the panel but it might be 2.51% which is over the threshold.
 
Unless its changed, it needs to for the duration of the retreat it must not rise above the threshold.
It must have changed then.

We have had it plenty of times where the retreating faction rises above 2.5% in days 1 - 4.

Just as long as they are back under by day 5 tick going in to 6 they will still leave the system.
 
It must have changed then.

We have had it plenty of times where the retreating faction rises above 2.5% in days 1 - 4.

Just as long as they are back under by day 5 tick going in to 6 they will still leave the system.

That is a good transparent improvement then.
 
Unless its changed, it needs to for the duration of the retreat it must not rise above the threshold.

this was difficult Impossible to monitor as the BGS was happening in real time in the background (Dav Stott)
I wonder whether you saw that happen:
a faction at 2,5%+ influence at the 2nd day of the retreat, below 2,5% in the 5th and 6th and fail to retreat.
The opposite was observed many times.

Although the BGS really happens real time, changes only applied with the tick, once in a day.
 
I wonder whether you saw that happen:
a faction at 2,5%+ influence at the 2nd day of the retreat, below 2,5% in the 5th and 6th and fail to retreat.
The opposite was observed many times.

Although the BGS really happens real time, changes only applied with the tick, once in a day.

No not specifically with retreat but, certainly with expansions happening mid tick, and wars being won mid tick.

there are plenty of examples of retreat not happening despite the people who monitor this stuff, and their insistence that they kept the influence below the retreat threshold but the MF did not retreat when they should have, in their opinion.

This couldn't be random it had to be consistent, which led me to the conclusion that the BGS was functioning in real time in the background and the tick was just a snapshot at whatever time the snapshot was taken. Which also meant it was out of date almost immediately, but some states were adjusted according to the tick and some in real time since. Retreat and expansion were in real time, I lost interest in pursuit of other explanations, and FDev (i believe) may have changed some states/workings, I got assurances and confirmation of this from Dav Stotts recent live stream, (you need to listen carefully and with an open mind).
 
Well.... unfortunately the faction we are throwing out rised to 3.6% between fifth and sixth day!!! 😊 The sixth and last day was 1%..... I'll let you know if it works the same......... Otherwise..... we''ll repeat retreat! 😎
 
Well.... unfortunately the faction we are throwing out rised to 3.6% between fifth and sixth day!!! 😊 The sixth and last day was 1%..... I'll let you know if it works the same......... Otherwise..... we''ll repeat retreat! 😎

Please let us know, I am interested to hear your take on it.
 
There are (more than) two reasons why it might seem like things are happening between ticks:
Caching: Influence data is cached locally after it is retrieved first after the Elite Dangerous is launhced. If you started your client 6 days ago and only exited to the main menu till then, what you see in the starmap and is reported to your journal might be 6 days old data. Our tick detector fairly regularly detects 5 days old data reported.
State tick precedes influence tick.
It is known that retreat success is determined by the influence one day before it concludes, but I did not see data suggesting prior days have an effect except for the one when the retreat goes pending.
 
Interesting - when the states change later today you may find they are gone (as they may now be frozen awaiting removal), let us know
Well, I have the response!!!! The faction retreated!!!!! So....... 5th day above 2.5% (3.6%) 6th at 1%.... 7th 1%........ 8th.... retreated!!!!!!!! So I can assume that also after 3.3 there is a two days extended time. If you stay under 2.5 in that period... retreat works! ;)
 
Well, I have the response!!!! The faction retreated!!!!! So....... 5th day above 2.5% (3.6%) 6th at 1%.... 7th 1%........ 8th.... retreated!!!!!!!! So I can assume that also after 3.3 there is a two days extended time. If you stay under 2.5 in that period... retreat works! ;)
The couple of days around the September release there was some issues with states freezing up, so normally you'd only need 6 days. Appears to be back to normal now, so your next one should be easier.
 
I had two factions in different systems, that started to retreat the same day.
Faction 1: never rose above 2.5% since the day 1. On the 6th day retreated (dissapeared from the system)
Faction 2: rose to 5,6% on day 3, fell to 1% on day 5. On the 6th day is still present in the system with 5% (with the retreat state)

what?
 
Faction 2: rose to 5,6% on day 3, fell to 1% on day 5. On the 6th day is still present in the system with 5% (with the retreat state)
On day 7 the faction stayed in the system. The "retreat" status disapeared.
So my suggestions are as follows:
1. The faction must be under 2.5% 2 days before the 6th day. If it is above 2.5% on day 4, but below 2.5% in day 5 - we get extra day for that faction (like match-ball).
2. If the faction rises it's level above 2.5% on any day during the retreat - the retreat prolongs for 1 day. And it has to be below 2.5% on day 6, instead of 5.
3. The retreat will be succesfull if the influence below 2.5% in 2 last days in a row. The retreat will fail, if the influence is above 2.5% in 2 last days in a row. Otherwise the retreat status will be prolonged like in tennis match.

Any comments on that?
 
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