Risk vs Reward

Hey folks. I just watched an Obsidian Ant video where he discussed Risk vs Reward, and how riskier activities pay less in Elite. (I'll link it at the bottom)

I wanted to know how folks are calculating risk and reward. The example in the video was mining vs Thargoid hunting.

Where mining was called "low risk" and high reward and Thargoid hunting, high risk low reward.

Personally I think that classification is off. I would say mining is higher risk than thargoid hunting and yes I've done both.

Why?

First I want to say a new or inexperienced player is likely to get blown up doing either activity. So let's look at experienced players. I would say that an experienced player is unlikely to be killed in either activity. Both kinds of NPC antagonists are predictable and escape is just a high wake away.

To add to that anti thargoid ships are combat ships, while mining ships are not.

So why the difference in risk?

A Thargoid killing ship is insured at loss = 5% of total value. There is no valuable cargo to lose, just a ship.

The payout comes from every kill so the income is at risk only a few million at a time.

Conversely in addition to 5% of their ship value, a miner or trader has their payday in cargo. There is no insurance for cargo. Die with 256 or more diamonds in your hold and you are out the value of almost a hundred Thargoid hunting ships insurance cost.

This equation seems to hold for all combat income. Combat ships regularly return to port where bounties and mission rewards can be turned in. They are focused on the threat they face with no need for ancillary utility. Whereas miners and traders are not. They are focused on an activity other than combat.

So explain to me, why do people think Thargoid hunting is riskier than mining? There seems to be so little on the table for combat pilots.

/Edit OA video here
Source: https://youtu.be/jfgm5SI79ds
 
Rocks don't shoot back where 'goids do would be my guess. NPC pirate's are a joke and if you can't beat the interdiction, outrun the pirate or live long enough to high wake the rebuy is a good learning experience.

On the flip side, I don't think reward necessarily should follow risk. Ad absurdum, landing a fully laden shieldless type 9 on a 6-7 G planet would need to pay a trillion credits or more.
 
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NPC's are ridiculously weak (sidewinder or eagle, shieldless that want your cargo? they last only 30sec max then all danger is gone).
In thargoid fights, the reward vs risk is low because you need to use synthesis for hydra (most powerful) and you get just ....... 15M cr! I mean what!!!
The interceptor payouts need to be rebalanced regarding to the difficulty, and not only some millions but AT LEAST 10s M.
 
Goids don't shoot back real hard.

I'll admit I haven't gone after higher than 6's yet. However even when I'm overwhelmed I have plenty of time to get out.

I don't think they are significantly more likely to kill a player than the pirates, especially when you take into account the capabilities of the ship vs threat.

I think a time vs income model makes more sense. Not just total time to payday but also how easily can you stop and come back later...
 
You lose bounty vouchers on destruction as well so the only real reason you can't have as high a potential loss from Bounty hunting or thargoid killing as mining is because time + ammo depletion dictates you'll never reasonably have that same payday sitting destructible in your ship unless you specifically try. Missions notwithstanding of course.

If I could get a bill in vouchers as fast as I could get a bill in minerals I'd have that same issue.
 
As an avid miner, I don't really see how mining is riskier in comparison to Thargoid hunting. The many risks that come with mining can be circumvented for the most part.

  • You jump into an asteroid belt/ring, you get scanned by npc pirates. So long as your cargo is empty, you won't face any trouble. In which case, the pirates high wake out after a bit. Even if you did have cargo, any halfway decent mining vessel with engineering could just continuously boost spam away until the pirates give up and high wake out. I've done so on everything from a Dolphin to a shieldless T9.
  • Facing npc pirates on your way to a sell point. Again, can be mostly mitigated by most mining ships as the interdiction mini-game versus npcs is pretty easy and forgiving to escape. And with the advent of Fleet Carriers, if you have one, you're probably a jump or two away from it, lowering the risk of multiple jumps to go sell. Just needing to go to your FC and dropping off your cargo.
  • Maybe you mine in open and you also have to face the plight of player pirates/gankers. This is a choice on the CMDR which can be deterred by playing solo/private.
Realistically speaking, most of the risks of mining are negligible and superficial since a lot of them are mitigated by player choice and careful maneuvering. Asteroids don't shoot back at you, and unless you're boosting around belts, you won't have much danger of slamming into them.

Thargoid hunting carries constant ship damage risk, rebuy costs, ammo, careful planning and you rarely just face one. There's definitely a larger risk involved when you have an alien species hammering you with lasers and ships. Nevermind the fact that to do any decent Thargoid hunting, you need some engineering and even further, Guardian modules/weapons and the like. You can mine in practically any ship. Hell, I mined in an Adder when I first started the game. In the end, there's no reward in just high waking out of an Thargoid fight. Destruction is how you reimburse the damage of battle. I just don't see how mining is comparable in risk.
 
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I'm not sure the premise applies to noob pilots, which is how I interpret your synopsis - not that you are a noob yourself.

I'd be mortified if I lost a ship to mining or pirates as I think you're implying. I'd probably go to bed and cry for a week of shame!

It's up to the player as to the value of what you lose as cargo, and how you value your time in pursuit of the risk:reward balance. If you have 250 LTDs and lose it to a pirate, you should probably have planned a bit better, or at least worked out how to survive or evade pirates.

Otherwise you're simply kicking yourself in the nuts imho.

I could argue that by the time you have "earned" the cash to have a ship big enough to put that quantity in the hold as well, you would normally have learned the things I've alluded to, and a hell of a lot more by then! Such that you know if there is going to be an NPC interdiction - it's incredibly rare to not be able to predict them really! And I'm not talking about elite pilots - I mean all pilots that have ships that get pulled by NPC pirates.

Sure, you will have lost several ships to the NPC pirates by then, we all did! But you'll know what to look for as warnings.

If you mean things like losing to faceplanting a rock before you have bound the reverse throttle; faceplanting a star before binding the zero throttle; cooking your ship when scooping so it loses cargo before learning how not to do this with 250 LTDs on board; getting stuck on the toastrack and "death by station" before finding the landing gear trick; (and on and on...), then I politely suggest again that you should learn the ship before flying it with that much cargo on board.

As I say, I'm not claiming that you are making the above mistakes, or that you're a noob at all - I'm just saying that I agree with Mr Dulcet - the risk is tiny when mining, compared to thargoiding.


As a final thought (call me uncle Jerry), if you didn't have something before you left the station, you can still only lose your rebuy as a miner, and your time. Nothing you mined is yours until you sell it and have the cash. So if you lose your diamonds to an NPC, well, you didn't lose more than your time or rebuy. The LTDs are just rocks until you sell them at a market - you don't earn jack for picking them up and taking them somewhere else, until you sell them.

Good luck.
 
Coz it takes longer, time v reward is a better measure if you must measure. The more time invested, the more time it takes to replace what you lost, the riskier the activity. Get killed by a Thargoid and lose a few minutes, die on way to selling station and probably lose couple hours.

Which makes exploration the most dangerous of all, losing it all after days, weeks or months is the riskiest of all.

Personally I just do whatever I feel like, the only ratio for me is fun v boredom, if Im bored of that (Combat, Mining, Exploration) Ill do something else instead, credits are never on my mind.
 
Its more about the fun factor. Riskier tasks are more fun, need no incentive, thus have the lowest payout. Low risk tasks like mining are so boring they require extra incentive to lure player participation. Thargoid hunting is more fun than mining.

I hope this isn't true. There is no in game need for mining. Industry doesn't stop if players quit harvesting.

I like mining and tharg hunting depending on mood. Bribing people to do unfun things seems like wreched game design philosophy.
 
I hope this isn't true. There is no in game need for mining. Industry doesn't stop if players quit harvesting.

I like mining and tharg hunting depending on mood. Bribing people to do unfun things seems like wreched game design philosophy.
It worked on me. Never mined for fun or credits before this year. I wanted a credit buffer for the carrier purchase, mining was the fastest way to get there.
 
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As a final thought (call me uncle Jerry), if you didn't have something before you left the station, you can still only lose your rebuy as a miner, and your time. Nothing you mined is yours until you sell it and have the cash. So if you lose your diamonds to an NPC, well, you didn't lose more than your time or rebuy. The LTDs are just rocks until you sell them at a market - you don't earn jack for picking them up and taking them somewhere else, until you sell them.

Good luck.

Have to disagree with you here. If to get blown up with a cargo full of diamonds you lose however many diamonds you have in the cargo. You had them then they are gone.

I don't lose any time, it bleeds away at the same rate of sixty seconds to the minute we all enjoy. Pending fast travel or divergent gravity.

I'll agree that they aren't credits until cashed in, but that's a different definition of cost than I'm using. They aren't "just rocks" they are a potential payday between 900k and 1.7 million each.

If we use your credits only loss metric then owning a carrier is the highest risk activity in the game.

However I think that points to the definition of risk. I don't see any NPC as particularly threatening. Not the Thatgoids or pirates or any other computer opponent. Once a player is skilled they stop being credible threats.

My main point is risk vs reward is a bad metric. As is fun vs reward. Time vs reward might be better and it should be balanced both on incremental commitment as well as total. If I want to mine I need to set aside 90 minutes or more in the belt logged in. When I blast NPC I can do so a lot more flexibly.

Reward also needs to be seen as credits and materials and goal progress. Missions are a good place to see that 5 tier 5 materials translate to a loss of 2mil credits on payout. At least for planetary scan missions.
 
Risk in ED is making mistakes and learning from them. Some can be devastating even quitting the game. The reward is learning from the mistakes and knowing how to play the game with little or no risk. E.G. getting your ship engineered to boost past 450 m/s solves a lot of new player problems. Some advanced ED players call this boring and often rant on the Forum looking for a higher challenge. They won't get it. This is ED not EVE...
 
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Have to disagree with you here. If to get blown up with a cargo full of diamonds you lose however many diamonds you have in the cargo. You had them then they are gone.

I don't lose any time, it bleeds away at the same rate of sixty seconds to the minute we all enjoy. Pending fast travel or divergent gravity.

I'll agree that they aren't credits until cashed in, but that's a different definition of cost than I'm using. They aren't "just rocks" they are a potential payday between 900k and 1.7 million each.

If we use your credits only loss metric then owning a carrier is the highest risk activity in the game.

However I think that points to the definition of risk. I don't see any NPC as particularly threatening. Not the Thatgoids or pirates or any other computer opponent. Once a player is skilled they stop being credible threats.

My main point is risk vs reward is a bad metric. As is fun vs reward. Time vs reward might be better and it should be balanced both on incremental commitment as well as total. If I want to mine I need to set aside 90 minutes or more in the belt logged in. When I blast NPC I can do so a lot more flexibly.

Reward also needs to be seen as credits and materials and goal progress. Missions are a good place to see that 5 tier 5 materials translate to a loss of 2mil credits on payout. At least for planetary scan missions.

I think we'll have to politely disagree on this I'm afraid. You can't lose a fleet carrier once you have it.

Anyway, I do totally agree though that risk v reward is not a good metric for the game. One person's risk/reward is irrelevant to another, and that's probably the fundamental reason why we're disagreeing tbh with you. It's never easy debating complex issues when not in person anyway, but that's a whole different kettle of anchovies!!
 
There is no risk reward in theses kind of game , only in the same categories, example : combat :
=>> killing elite wanted ship grants you more than killing harmless wanted ship.

I dont see how risk / reward gameplay can be adapted to the whole E:D universe.

How can you quatifiy the risk of mining vs exploration for example ?
How farming low NPC on mining site with full G5 vette is hard ?

Really hard to tell imo.

Elite is (to me) more about time/reward. (exemple: trading)

It could be done for certain categories like mission ect , but problem is, in elite , mission are out of realy rare case, never the best time/reward.

Also IMHO , reward for some kind of gameplay are not credit , but fun , adrenaline , ect.

This is why , we/dev should focus on improve what we like , and create/enhance gameplay around what is working.

I feel like atm you can have all but FC quickly enought by doing nearly all activities in the game.

And just in case you need quick credit , mining /trading/mission stack are here .

Just my opinion tho.

o7

Edit : While i'm saying that , this does not mean I dont want to see buff on certain activities to make them more attractive. I also feel that difficulty des not scale really well with the reward for the COMBAT categorie yes.
 
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