Hello Commander Rubbernuke!
I believe the intention is that as soon as a power is in the bottom three and fails to expand during a cycle there will be a clear collapse warning indicator, which will likely show the number of cycles since the collapse warning appeared.
However, at the moment the idea is once the power is in to cycle three of collapse warning, each next cycle might be the last one, and past cycle 6 it's basically guaranteed. The collapse itself will also take a few cycles to complete.
Some of these numbers might change a bit, but that's the basic intent.
Thank you for this explanation. I have a few questions and some comments: Does this indicator need to appear in consecutive cycles, or will it be cumulative? If the latter, cumulative from what point? What will it take to have the warning rescinded? Do we need to simply expand to any system, or will it be more involved than that? Do standing deficits matter?
Currently, many powers do not have profitable expansion opportunities, and the game mechanics make it very difficult to force powers to lose valuable systems. It seems to me like you've designed a system that forces powers to expand in an attempt to force conflict, but the system makes it incredibly difficult to force the revolt of target systems. The only way to do so is to snipe a power into turmoil at the last moment, and most powers fortify accordingly.
Not expanding should be a viable strategy but there are no mechanics in game to make it easily possible, and collapse, as you've described it, will penalize that strategy immensely. A power that is lean and defensible should not be punished for expanding intelligently. Please do not force powers to take systems that destroy their economy.
"We have a highly profitable, defensible domain. We've carefully chosen our control systems and have worked to make them easier to fortify. However, the only available expansion opportunities represent a considerable loss and will significantly increase our vulnerability. What should we do?"
"Take those bad opportunities! Take as many of them as possible! Take those black numbers and make them red!"
That should not be the right answer. You've designed a strategic landscape that makes no sense, and are forcing strategic leaders to plan in ways that are counter-intuitive and preposterous. You mentioned before that Powerplay would receive some attention this season. Please consider postponing both the games and the introduction of the collapse mechanic until there are real changes. If you bring a new power and new players into the fold before resolving long-standing issues, you will put the final nail into Powerplay's coffin.
If this week's disasters haven't done so already.