General / Off-Topic Some numbers and a shortage

[Robin of Spiritwood]

At the time of writing -

Amazon won't ship any G95 respirator masks because they are sold out.
Everybody in China has bought one, maybe?

Some studies suggest that ordinary cheap surgical masks are just as effective. I have 500 of those.

The Chinese Army has moved into Wuhan, and halted travel, by bulldozing rocks and earth into the streets according to some reports. Unfortunately, 5 million people fled the city before the lockdown, scattering through mainland China. According to mayor Zhou.
The infection is suspected transmissible between humans before any symptoms arise, which includes fever, which means all airport
screening was incomplete, and the epidemic is much harder to control.

When viruses jump host species and begin to spread by the millions, they mutate. That isn't always bad. They may adapt to a more congenial form, less hostile to the host, so they can move around more and spread it better. The common cold is like that.

A global epidemic seems to be inevitable - likely triggering economic contraction. Gold is trending up. Life, as always, goes on till it stops.

Fly safe cmdrs. 07

 

[MaxG10]

Ma Xiaowei, the minister in charge of China’s National Health Commission (NHC), told a press conference that battling the outbreak was complicated, particularly as it had been discovered that the new virus could be transmitted even during
incubation period
, which did not happen with Sars (severe acute respiratory syndrome).

5 million left Wuhan before lockdown, 1,000 new virus cases expected

Health commission says battling the epidemic is becoming more complicated as scientists discover virus is infectious even during its incubation period.

www.scmp.com

 

[Patrick_68000]

Protective masks do not prevent receiving the virus.

They only prevent it from being transmitted.

Wearing a mask has only one purpose, that of not giving the virus to another person.

 

[WeComeInPeace]

I wonder if you can speculate in death, and bet on say the death toll from 2019-nCoV four weeks (28 days) from now. I guess not, because bookmakers normally are very good at calculating odds. Not many people understand the consequences of this epidemic if it continues to develop like now. A virus like this typically spreads so that the number of cases grows exponentially. China does not have a good history of being honest (SARS), but assuming that the numbers they state now are correct, and the epidemic isn't contained, then ~13 million people will have died of this by February 24th, and the number of cases will have reached ~430 million. I "only" have a correlation of 99.36% on this prognosis, so I might be wrong...

The good thing is that the percentage of cases leading to death is still below 5%, meaning there is a probability of surviving being more than 95%, which in science normally is considered the same as "true".

Date	Day	Cases reported	Cases Model	Cumulative deaths	Cumul Death Model
16/Jan​	1​	45​	50​
17/Jan​	2​	62​	75​
18/Jan​	3​	121​	113​
19/Jan​	4​	198​	170​
20/Jan​	5​	291​	256​
21/Jan​	6​	440​	386​
22/Jan​	7​	571​	581​	17​	17​
23/Jan​	8​	830​	875​	25​	26​
24/Jan​	9​	1287​	1318​	37​	39​
25/Jan​	10​	1975​	1985​	55​	58​
26/Jan​	11​	2744​	2989​	82​	87​
27/Jan​	12​	4515	4502​	106	132​
28/Jan​	13​	6056	6779​	132	198​
29/Jan​	14​	7914	1,0E+04​	170	299​
30/Jan​	15​	9692	1,5E+04​	213	450​
31/Jan​	16​	11791	2,3E+04​	258	677​
01/Feb​	17​	14411	3,5E+04​	304	1020​
02/Feb​	18​	17205	5,3E+04​	360	1536​
03/Feb​	19​	20438	7,9E+04​	427	2313​
04/Feb​	20​		1,2E+05​		3483​
05/Feb​	21​		1,8E+05​		5245​
06/Feb​	22​		2,7E+05​		7898​
07/Feb​	23​		4,1E+05​		1,2E+04​
08/Feb​	24​		6,1E+05​		1,8E+04​
09/Feb​	25​		9,2E+05​		2,7E+04​
10/Feb​	26​		1,4E+06​		4,1E+04​
11/Feb​	27​		2,1E+06​		6,1E+04​
12/Feb​	28​		3,1E+06​		9,2E+04​
13/Feb​	29​		4,7E+06​		1,4E+05​
14/Feb​	30​		7,1E+06​		2,1E+05​
15/Feb​	31​		1,1E+07​		3,1E+05​
16/Feb​	32​		1,6E+07​		4,7E+05​
17/Feb​	33​		2,4E+07​		7,1E+05​
18/Feb​	34​		3,7E+07​		1,1E+06​
19/Feb​	35​		5,5E+07​		1,6E+06​
20/Feb​	36​		8,3E+07​		2,4E+06​
21/Feb​	37​		1,3E+08​		3,7E+06​
22/Feb​	38​		1,9E+08​		5,5E+06​
23/Feb​	39​		2,8E+08​		8,3E+06​
24/Feb​	40​		4,3E+08​		1,3E+07​

Edit: Updated with today's numbers.

 

[MaxG10]

What do you think?

As far as I am concerned, and when I look at the (to me) available data and projection, one thing is certain from where I am standing. It will take another month or thereabouts before enough data is available to better judge key parameters and thresholds. Only then we are able to estimate whether we have a devastating pandemic at hand, or a locally highly active epidemic.

How do I come to that conclusion?

The very controversial papers that are popping up from reputable sources. British predict twice as much infected and accelerated spread than WHO, claiming 250.000 infected in Wuhan.

Here:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v1.full.pdf

Now the things is, we don't know until what I said above, we need more data, and this will take time.

Today, the ony thing I am certain about is that It could go both ways, spanish influenza style or not.

The other aspect I am wondering about is about the fundamentally required cooperation with chinese authorities.

Is it all smooth? Are all channels working as intended, or are there any political obstacles. So far, I heard/read nothing of that kind, not from CDC, WHO, Robert-Koch Institute, no one!

 

[MaxG10]

Oh btw..... forgot one important thing. Consider this, do we know the starting point, do we know case 0? No, and that increases uncertainty as well.

 

[WeComeInPeace]

There are many uncertainties right now, so I can only base my estimate on the official numbers. They might be much lower than the true numbers. I hope not.

My personal thoughts:

This is serious, and depending on when people realize that, we might be better at containing the spread than during the spanish flu. I'm not scared towards this. There still seems to be a good chance of survival. Normally I have considered a flu "completely harmless", but a typical flu still kills 1-2%. If I had stocks, I would be more concerned, and the information we get is somewhat limited due to economical interests, but if this was much more lethal than 3-4%, we would probably know by now, because it's gone global. The mortality rate might go up if it continues spreading, because hospitals outside China aren't overburdened. With ~half a billion cases in a month they will be. If you look at the numbers in the model above, once you get a month ahead, the number of new cases each day explodes (millions of new cases per day), which would probably cause a collapse of the global "health sector".

Another thing is that if it continues spreading, and even the cases outside China grows (haven't done a model on that yet but likely exponential as well), we can't really do much about it. Wearing masks, washing hands, not touching your face (good luck with that) and avoiding contact with other humans, decrease the chances of being infected, but once it's all over the place, it becomes really difficult. You need to go outside to buy food etc. I would chill until something new shows up, and even then I probably wouldn't panic. Another coronavirus, MERS, had a mortality rate of ~30%. That's not what we see with 2019-nCoV.

 

[WeComeInPeace]

One more thing: Notice how many western news sites have sort of lost interest with this. Now other stories like the heli crash and all the crying seems more important to the public. That'll most likely change in roughly a week, if not before, assuming miracles don't happen.

 

[MaxG10]

Oh well, yes of course, media bias/quota.

LIFE AND EXCLUSIVE ON FOX NEWS:
THE END IS NEAR
with Tucker Redneck and Gertrud Duttonbraid.

 

[jasonbarron]

One more thing: Notice how many western news sites have sort of lost interest with this. Now other stories like the heli crash and all the crying seems more important to the public. That'll most likely change in roughly a week, if not before, assuming miracles don't happen.

Yeah, I noticed that, too. The news seems to be dominated since yesterday afternoon with Kobe Bryant, mostly ignoring this.

You raised a concern about mortality rates that I completely agree with: based on current evidence it seems to be around 2% or so, but if it explodes globally expect that rate to climb as hospitals and care centers become over burdened.

Dust and surgical masks are just to make people feel like they're taking proactive steps and give the impression of positivity to quell the likelihood of mild to serious panic.

 

[jasonbarron]

Oh well, yes of course, media bias/quota.

LIFE AND EXCLUSIVE ON FOX NEWS:
THE END IS NEAR
with Tucker Redneck and Gertrud Duttonbraid.

Speaking of bias, what are you on about? Go have a peek at CNN and you'll see where the two dominant issues they feel the public should be concerned with have eff all to do with an emerging pandemic.

 

[EUS]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1221697494968496128

Source: https://twitter.com/XinqiSu/status/1221697494968496128?ref_src=twsrc^tfw


They're estimating over 43K infected in Wuhan alone, the official numbers of 2900/82 infected/dead looks to be woefully under-reported.

 

[Manticore]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1221697494968496128

Source: https://twitter.com/XinqiSu/status/1221697494968496128?ref_src=twsrc^tfw


They're estimating over 43K infected in Wuhan alone, the official numbers of 2900/82 infected/dead looks to be woefully under-reported.

Not good.... not good at all.

 

[Robin of Spiritwood]

Masks are sold out in Seattle...

I'm now working on the assumption that I will get exposed and sick within the next 12 weeks. High risk job.

Doing Nitric Oxide dumps from today to adapt to hypoxia. The weights can take a break. I got to buy some more beetroot...

 

[Manticore]

Masks are sold out in Seattle...

I'm now working on the assumption that I will get exposed and sick within the next 12 weeks. High risk job.

Doing Nitric Oxide dumps from today to adapt to hypoxia. The weights can take a break. I got to buy some more beetroot...

Take care and best wishes!

 

[znôrt]

Masks are sold out in Seattle...

masks aren't really that protective. you don't get protective gear on your site and have to go looking for masks yourself? in seattle?

 

[Robin of Spiritwood]

masks aren't really that protective. you don't get protective gear on your site and have to go looking for masks yourself? in seattle?

It probably won't matter much in the coming days where you are because the emerging picture strongly suggests a likely global pandemic. The logarithmic math is obvious.
Sorry the post was unclear. I am not in Seattle. They have a single confirmed case, which is driving anxiety. What happens when the real thing hits?

DOW dropped 450 points on overreaction to early news. For once, it seems rational. This is potentially really bad news.

 

[znôrt]

i just recently booked a trip to japan (flight via beijing) for end of february. will wait and see how this develops but indeed a global spread seems very likely, so i might as well get through with it. and if flights aren't banned first, of course. probably means i will get quarantined when i get back. if that matters at all by then.

 

[znôrt]

ArcGIS Dashboards

ArcGIS Dashboards

gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com

 

[znôrt]

on the positive side china has finally banned trade and consumption of wild animals. was about time. there's some sort of poetic justice there.