General / Off-Topic Some numbers and a shortage

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Masks are sold out in Seattle...

I'm now working on the assumption that I will get exposed and sick within the next 12 weeks. High risk job.

Doing Nitric Oxide dumps from today to adapt to hypoxia. The weights can take a break. I got to buy some more beetroot...

Go cleanshaven if you wind up working in a mask, stubble or a beard stops them sealing.

Clean your hands before you remove/change the mask or a filter.

Hyperventilate to get your oxygen up deep breath in and hold, do the change then a hard breath out to push the external air out of the mask.
 
this unsolicited reply

this is a forum, not your private mail inbox. the whole point of it is promoting unsolicited contributions.

as just another example of jasonbarron derangement syndrome

:ROFLMAO:

looks more like a case of persecutory delusion and divinity complex. contrary to what you might believe, not everything in this forum is about you or your beliefs.

i agree it was not really necessary to comment on you using this thread to regurgitate your political agenda again but ... i'm glad to have our lion back anyway!

interestingly, again the western news is barely covering the outbreak this morning.

do you mean "western u.s. news"? coverage of the outbreak is quite regular in europe, afaik it's still considered "western". of course it can't compete with stuff that really matters, like the tragic sudden death of a sports hero. 🤷‍♂️
 
this is a forum, not your private mail inbox. the whole point of it is promoting unsolicited contributions.



:ROFLMAO:

looks more like a case of persecutory delusion and divinity complex. contrary to what you might believe, not everything in this forum is about you or your beliefs.

i agree it was not really necessary to comment on you using this thread to regurgitate your political agenda again but ... i'm glad to have our lion back anyway!



do you mean "western u.s. news"? coverage of the outbreak is quite regular in europe, afaik it's still considered "western". of course it can't compete with stuff that really matters, like the tragic sudden death of a sports hero. 🤷‍♂️
My only "agenda" is to give you and your friends a focus for your unspecified hatred and general sense of confusion.
 
first confirmed case in germany, in what seems the first known case of transmission in europe. also two more unconfirmed in spain.
 
If you had all the answers I suppose this weird rebuttal would make sense, but since we've exhaustively covered the fact that you don't and only like to give the condescending impression that you do, I think I'll chalk this unsolicited reply as just another example of jasonbarron derangement syndrome, a condition that compels a poster to refute/rebut/argue with me, even when they have no reason or need to.

Back on topic: interestingly, again the western news is barely covering the outbreak this morning.
Just did another calculation. The statistics of this one is very shaky, but I tried to look at the number of cases reported outside of China. The most reliable numbers I have found were:

Jan 23rd: 16
Jan 26th: 47
Jan 27th: 68

Now putting those numbers into a spreadsheet, and fitting an exponential function you get a correlation of 100%. As stated, those numbers are not a lot of data, making the uncertainty higher, but if the data are correct, then the epidemic is growing exponentially even outside China. As I write this, the breaking news is that a potential case is being examined in my own country.

1580230732590.png
 
Just did another calculation. The statistics of this one is very shaky, but I tried to look at the number of cases reported outside of China. The most reliable numbers I have found were:

Jan 23rd: 16
Jan 26th: 47
Jan 27th: 68

Now putting those numbers into a spreadsheet, and fitting an exponential function you get a correlation of 100%. As stated, those numbers are not a lot of data, making the uncertainty higher, but if the data are correct, then the epidemic is growing exponentially even outside China. As I write this, the breaking news is that a potential case is being examined in my own country.

View attachment 160450
Nice work. Doesn't the accuracy of it depend on whether China is being forthright and truthful about the statistics?
 
Just did another calculation. The statistics of this one is very shaky, but I tried to look at the number of cases reported outside of China.

keep in mind that in almost all of those cases the transmission happened in china. it's still early for numbers on contagion abroad. maximum assumed time for symptoms to show is 14 days, i'll guess we'll have some figures in a week.
 
Nice work. Doesn't the accuracy of it depend on whether China is being forthright and truthful about the statistics?
If you look at the graph, you see that the orange dots are a model based on the official numbers. The grey dots are based on an estimate from Hong Kong University, saying that instead of 4,500 the true number might be closer to 45,000. That's rather inaccurate data to work with, but they both reach the same numbers within ~a week. Therefore it matters less whether the chinese numbers are accurate, as long as they are precise. Meaning that if they have decided to lower the official numbers, and I begin doubting that, then it would show once you start analyzing the data. I have seen examples of Chinese data that were very weird, but in this case they seem more honest than usual.

What could be more worrisome regarding the information from China is how much we can trust the death toll, but so far we have 68 cases outside China, and no deaths, which somewhat supports the Chinese data. Remember that in science we normally consider a probability of 95% trustworthy, so as long as the mortality rate is less than 5%, then it's significant that a patient will survive. ;)
keep in mind that in almost all of those cases the transmission happened in china. it's still early for numbers on contagion abroad. maximum assumed time for symptoms to show is 14 days, i'll guess we'll have some figures in a week.
I think you're right. If the numbers are just roughly correct, then we will be somewhere around 1000-2000 cases outside China around a week from now. That'll give a much more accurate estimate.
 
determining mortality rate is difficult while there are so many still recovering. for now, of those ~4500 confirmed, about 1000 are reported as 'severe', we will have to wait to see how those go. number of patients recovered is still pretty low.

4537 confirmed
6973 suspected
976 severe
106 deaths

there is even at least one case already of a middle aged male patient previously healthy dying, which is not usual in coronaviruses. it seems women do better than men, though.
 
determining mortality rate is difficult while there are so many still recovering. for now, of those ~4500 confirmed, about 1000 are reported as 'severe', we will have to wait to see how those go. number of patients recovered is still pretty low.

4537 confirmed
6973 suspected
976 severe
106 deaths

there is even at least one case already of a middle aged male patient previously healthy dying, which is not usual in coronaviruses. it seems women do better than men, though.
Yes, as long as it's only old men kicking the bucket, then it's probably ok. Read that as well and noticed the female journalists having wrote that :D
 
My understanding is that those masks are next ti useless after about 15 minutes of wearing them. I could be wrong........
According to this professor in virology from Nottingham university (you might call him an "expert"), they are pretty useless outside a hospital or a lab:

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y7Zb3MAGJlM


It also seems that people working at hospitals are pretty relaxed about it (so far):

Captureab.JPG

Danish health officials, on the same page where I captured this image, were very proud about how well their planning worked out, and how well the situation was handled.

Edit: The case has been declared a false alarm. That is one fast assay (method of testing)! And good for that dude checking FB. Now he won't be quarantined. Btw. He caused a stir on danish social media.
 
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Yes, as long as it's only old men kicking the bucket, then it's probably ok. Read that as well and noticed the female journalists having wrote that :D

😂 well, it's the rule of life, we old have to go first. one thing that would sadden me horribly is survive my own children. sadly small children are at high risk too.

too early for that. i guess it also depends on the intensity of infection, and people who have had high exposure at the source zone will be at worse odds of their immune system coping. i'm just regularly checking and hoping the 'recovered total' goes up, damn.
 
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