General / Off-Topic Some numbers and a shortage

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Patrick_68000

Patrick_68000
WeComeInPeace said:
They can probably have it ready before that, but you need to test it, and that's pretty time consuming. With some medicines it can take up to 10 years. You might get to a point where you decide to skip the tests, but that has also been known to be fatal, and I don't think nCoV is "dangerous enough" for that. It might change pretty quickly though.
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Yes,

The Institut Pasteur hopes for an experimental vaccine "at the end of next summer".

We will have to wait "the end of next summer" to obtain a vaccine that would be "available for clinical studies", said Frédéric Tangy, professor and director of the vaccine innovation laboratory at the Pasteur Institute.

The vaccine will then have to go through "clinical studies," he added. “At the Institut Pasteur, we use a vaccine platform which is based on the measles vaccine. We must first build the vaccine candidate against the coronavirus virus and then we will test it in animal models. And if it is effective, it will then go into industrial manufacturing. ”
 

sewerratuk

sewerratuk
jasonbarron said:
I'm supposed to go back to work today, but it's blowing and snowing and the thought of climbing back up that ladder with a 60' piece of gutter makes me almost want to cry with self pity. I'm so weak I'm having a hard time even sitting up to type on the keyboard 😂
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See this the problem with the UK now, we are barely able to allow people to use ladders on site never mind carrying things up one. I had a H&S idiot moron person telling me I had to have people wearing a harness clipped to a fall arrest to access a 2m deep excavation via a ladder. And they wonder why we are not globally competitive anymore.
 

WeComeInPeace

WeComeInPeace
Patrick_68000 said:
Yes,

The Institut Pasteur hopes for an experimental vaccine "at the end of next summer".

We will have to wait "the end of next summer" to obtain a vaccine that would be "available for clinical studies", said Frédéric Tangy, professor and director of the vaccine innovation laboratory at the Pasteur Institute.

The vaccine will then have to go through "clinical studies," he added. “At the Institut Pasteur, we use a vaccine platform which is based on the measles vaccine. We must first build the vaccine candidate against the coronavirus virus and then we will test it in animal models. And if it is effective, it will then go into industrial manufacturing. ”
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Also note, that a vaccine has no effect once you're infected. It's not like an antibiotic. A vaccine is more like "training" your immune system by exposing your body to a weakened version of the virus.
 

Arry

Arry
sewerratuk said:
See this the problem with the UK now, we are barely able to allow people to use ladders on site never mind carrying things up one. I had a H&S idiot moron person telling me I had to have people wearing a harness clipped to a fall arrest to access a 2m deep excavation via a ladder. And they wonder why we are not globally competitive anymore.
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You forgot the obligatory form, to be filled in and the checks that have to be made, before you use the thing.

I am not kidding.
 

Robin of Spiritwood

Robin of Spiritwood
Chris Simon said:
(and naturally I'm posting it at 1:30AM sitting in front of the PC with the bedtime nowhere near to prove the point. :LOL:)
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Glad you posted it, it has material we all need.
( Went to bed at 5.30 am myself, then work called at 9.30 to change the time off schedule. The not sleeping thing has got to stop.)

The stuff he said about sleep was unfamiliar to me. Almost all the immunology I've done revolved around suppression of autoimmunity because of family things. There is always so very much to learn.
 

znôrt

znôrt
huge spike in confirmed cases (15k in a single day) allegedly for changing reporting methods in wuhan, it now includes all clinically diagnosed cases (from symptoms), not only those who were specifically tested and found positive.

@Robin of Spiritwood, get some sleep, dude. also, reduce stress. these have been known to affect the immune system for a while now. don't ask how, just do it. and eat healthy.
 

Patrick_68000

Patrick_68000
znôrt said:
huge spike in confirmed cases (15k in a single day) allegedly for changing reporting methods in wuhan, it now includes all clinically diagnosed cases (from symptoms), not only those who were specifically tested and found positive.

@Robin of Spiritwood, get some sleep, dude. also, reduce stress. these have been known to affect the immune system for a while now. don't ask how, just do it. and eat healthy.
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Yes, the balance sheet explodes in China after a change in calculation.

China announced on Thursday some 15000 additional coronavirus infections, a record leap which it justifies by a new definition of the cases of infection.

The Hubei Health Commission on Thursday announced 242 new deaths in 24 hours in the province. A record to date

These leaps are due to a new, broader definition of cases of infection. From now on, local authorities will count "clinically diagnosed" cases.

Clearly, a chest X-ray on suspected cases can now be considered sufficient to diagnose the virus. Until now, a nucleic acid test has been essential.

The authorities justify this new method by their "better knowledge" of the disease and its symptoms.
 

Patrick_68000

Patrick_68000
In India, a 50-year-old man committed suicide, convinced himself he was infected with the coronavirus after watching videos about the virus. All his exams were, on the contrary, normal according to the doctors.

:oops:
 

WeComeInPeace

WeComeInPeace
WHO has decided not to include the new cases in their latest "Situation Report #24".

They have also decided to leave out the number of deaths in China.


Right now, it seems that especially Wuhan is one giant incubator. With more than 60,000 cases and the actual "iceberg" being more than that, it becomes more and more probable that this will spread further.

Here is a SIR model of the potential scale of such a pandemic:

1581627087249.png

1 S: Susceptible (blue)
2 I: Infected (red)
3 R: Recovered (magenta)
4 D: Dead (orange)

Assumptions:

Beta = -0.43
Gamma = 1/14
20% cases reported
Disease duration assumed to be 14 days
Fatality rate is assumed to be 2%
T0 = Jan 16th

It definitely won't kill us all, but it will probably make the World come to a standstill. And ~150 million deaths could cause a lot of sorrow. Time to stop trying to cover up the true numbers, or at least admit that they don't know. The excuses from the Chinese right now are despicable, being that they didn't count the cases that they hadn't had time to test in a lab. That's called cheating, and this is definitely not a time for that.

It's going to be "interesting" to follow the development the next couple of days.

EDIT:

Btw. The "dreaded" R0 (R naught) in this case is ~6, meaning that each infected will infect 6 more susceptibles.

The model was made using two calibration points, one being reported cases @ T=0 being 45 and secondly that the number of reported cases yesterday was ~60,000.
 
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Patrick_68000

Patrick_68000
WeComeInPeace said:
WHO has decided not to include the new cases in their latest "Situation Report #24".

They have also decided to leave out the number of deaths in China.


Right now, it seems that especially Wuhan is one giant incubator. With more than 60,000 cases and the actual "iceberg" being more than that, it becomes more and more probable that this will spread further.

Here is a SIR model of the potential scale of such a pandemic:

View attachment 162170
1 S: Susceptible (blue)
2 I: Infected (red)
3 R: Recovered (magenta)
4 D: Dead (orange)

Assumptions:

Beta = -0.43
Gamma = 1/14
20% cases reported
Disease duration assumed to be 14 days
Fatality rate is assumed to be 2%
T0 = Jan 16th

It definitely won't kill us all, but it will probably make the World come to a standstill. And ~150 million deaths could cause a lot of sorrow. Time to stop trying to cover up the true numbers, or at least admit that they don't know. The excuses from the Chinese right now are despicable, being that they didn't count the cases that they hadn't had time to test in a lab. That's called cheating, and this is definitely not a time for that.

It's going to be "interesting" to follow the development the next couple of days.

EDIT:

Btw. The "dreaded" R0 (R naught) in this case is ~6, meaning that each infected will infect 6 more susceptibles.

The model was made using two calibration points, one being reported cases @ T=0 being 45 and secondly that the number of reported cases yesterday was ~60,000.
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The real danger is that the contamination spreads in very populated countries and whose health system is not really efficient (Indonesia, Africa, Vietnam, Cambodia etc ...)

This would be a disaster.
 

Robin of Spiritwood

Robin of Spiritwood
We don't have access to the PCR test at the lab. Lab tech girl does not know how to do the test . She asked me.
Me.
Of course, I have no clue. Or even what sample to collect, or how to store it. Blood? Stool? Sputum? Refrigerate? Freeze? Away from Light? Keep warm? This is a new disease. No info available to me because: well let me explain.

Health Ministry says "the test is available." Admin says "test, what test"?

Some body I never heard of called CARPHA is supposed to have the WHO tests, but they won't take samples from our lab, only the "reference national laboratory" (what the *#@& is that?) and it takes 2 days to process after they get it, but they won't send us the result. It only goes to WHO and the Ministry statistical unit.

There is no info because there's no test actually available to ANY lab I can contact. That is why nobody has a spec sheet or instructions.

CARPHA however encourages everybody to be "vigilant." Yeah. How?

Ministry of Health cannot even format a website. It's unreadable.
They don't answer phones. They do send statements of confident claims to the press though, about how "prepared" we are.

The country has nationals trapped in China. The plan, I kid you not, is to leave them there "where they will be safer." - Minister of Health. Boy that is what I call a low bar. China is f-ing safer than your "prepared" health service?
How do you still have a job!? The economy must be fantastic to maintain that kind of employment!

Remember that Starcraft intro where the Spaceship abandons the Marines to the Zerg? That's our glorious leadership in action. Maybe YOUR country is doing better; unlikely to be worse, surely.

The Med centre has no biohazard kit.
Mask supply is low. Admin says some masks are on back order, but "surprisingly, there's an unexpected shortage". There must be some kind of foreign problem? Or something, that surely has nothing to do with us.
We do have a mothballed pair of ventillators but nobody knows if they are working. Oh. And the Chief wants to go travelling again.

What to do if we get cases? Well that would be a medical problem for the doctor in charge, wouldn't it?

Guess who that will be?
 

Patrick_68000

Patrick_68000
Six healthcare workers have died in China of the new coronavirus and a total of 1716 have been infected, according to a report announced by the government on Friday.
 

Patrick_68000

Patrick_68000
The coronavirus epidemic shows no signs of decline in China. Health authorities have reported 5000 additional cases of contamination, as well as 121 deaths. The number of fatal cases is now 1380.
 
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