I mean yea the numbers look like that, but the competitive element come June 30th isn't the number of players you can field. I'd estimate that 80% of it will be how many committed hauler players attuned to Cutters each side can field, because from my experience in CGs it's the top 10% of players who really carry the totals, the level of players who push hard to 20k/30k each CG. Not super interesting, and the fact that hauling will make up the majority of the action from the looks of things is p. depressing compared to EVE gameplay, but it is what it is and it's a fair contest.
The other 20% will be the combat bond CGs, kill lots and lots of stuff in combat zones in Wings. Funtimes. I wouldn't imagine it's that hard to create custom combat bonds for Capital Ship "kills" either, if a CG for killing Cap Ships was jammed into 2.1 that'd be neato, but probably unrealistic since Frontier won't want to make a CG not all players can participate in. Murdering cap ships is probably the apex of fun gameplay in ED PVE atm though.
Considering the fact that Cutter numbers and the highly engaged players are such a big part of it, and there's a lot of ups and downs between now and June 30th, the result really isn't predictable. 2.1 release of Elite Dangerous leaving beta around June 7th (hopefully for Queen's Birthday long weekend), is a long time before Rise to Power, the player spike might have played out by then. Not to mention recruitment can happen between now and then.
Large numbers of players are also guaranteed to desert the game on No Man's Sky's release date, that's a firm and locked in thing, this event could fall over entirely all 6 parties decide to not play Elite Dangerous. Heck I have a running bet with my friend that Elite Dangerous will not see a 4th expansion and support will end after the 3rd, final expansion in 2017, not because of Star Citizen but because of No Man's Sky taking the playerbase and leaving nobody purchasing expansion two and expansion three. This is despite ED really being Frontier's cash cow and the thing keeping the lights on there for them, alongside mobile. But nobody really knows.
Before EXO joined i would have said AC/DC or w/e the Mahon powerplayers are called were the favourites honestly, nobody grinds harder than Mahon powerplayers except maybe for Mypro & EIC Spacetrumps. Maybe Galcop is now, maybe it isn't, it depends how many players quit for No Man's Sky.