Montana state has tested a whopping total of 20 people for Covid, and reportedly has less than 500 test kits. Obviously these kits are being preserved to test only certain cases that fall within some special criteria. The number of unreported cases has to be vast.
General / Off-Topic The safest place
- Thread starter Robin of Spiritwood
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Which kinda make the 3.5% mortality rate a quite moot point.
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dunno if this interests anyone... its UKcentric, i have no idea if other countries have similar links
Over the next few days I believe the number of tests are going to vastly ramp up.... which will also see the number of positive cases shoot up - but I hope the % of positive results drop.
Personally for now at least I am still in the (possibly self deluding) place of worrying about my 2 holidays coming up - 1 in less than 2 weeks and 1 at end of May) combined with my savings/pension and the economy.
That may change if people i know start to come down with it but for now that is where I personally am at.....
Over the next few days I believe the number of tests are going to vastly ramp up.... which will also see the number of positive cases shoot up - but I hope the % of positive results drop.
Personally for now at least I am still in the (possibly self deluding) place of worrying about my 2 holidays coming up - 1 in less than 2 weeks and 1 at end of May) combined with my savings/pension and the economy.
That may change if people i know start to come down with it but for now that is where I personally am at.....
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Whatever the actual numbers may be, intensive care wards in all the main hospitals of Lombardy aren't verging on collapse just out of sheer media panic. People there don't care about whatever TV shouters proclaim, they just have many people in critical need of intensive care and not enough beds and respiratory equipment for everyone. It's not about how many people get infected and develop serious symptoms, but how many do this at once. That's a very prominent difference with a "regular" flu strain.
Well put. All the more reason for the media and community leaders to quell panic. Sadly that's not the case with most of them. Now we're going have emergency rooms filling up with people who have a tickle in the back of their throats while people with genuine problems can't even get in the front door.
We do have Data . There is a number of confirmed infectioned people, and a number of people having died to CoViD - 19 . To the best of my knowledge, the death toll numbers so far ONLY has the people having died of CoViD - 19...if you divide the one number through the other, you get a certain %age of people having been infected who died . That number is a very, very, very much higher %age than with a "usual" influenza .
If you now think "hah, you can not trust the Chinese numbers!"...consider the following : if anyting, the numbers are higher . Infected as well as dead . I find it kindof ironic that about 2 posts further down, you tell us about the very small number of people having been tested for SARS - CoV - 2 in Montana . What if - and imho that is very likely - the number of actually infected is higher in Montana as I write, and maybe there have even people died there due to the Virus, just noone "noticed"...would you consider me pointing out that possibility as fearmongering ? Or would you think this to be an actually realisitc assessment ?
Unless we actually test dead people for whether they have been infected with SARS - CoV -2, we do not know how many people that Beast has killed. As far as I know, so far the circulated death numbers are only by CoViD - 19, the pneumonic disease .
I'm at work so I can't really engage you at this time fully. Suffice it say that the actual numbers we DO have concerning mortality rates don't point to this being that much worse than the flu no matter how much you want to spin them up, and the fact there are many people who are infected who haven't perished or been tested is a positive, not a negative. It means that the real mortality rate is lower than is currently publicized.
Sadly, your reasoning comes down to "media and community leaders" actually controlling people'S behaviour . What has happened to people's personal responsibility ? Are we really only able to act intelligently when someone tells us what we have to do ?
OiC . I am glad you can not go engage in this fully at this time. With you using the phrase "..how much you want to spin them up...", I am done discussing this with you . All the best, stay healthy .
I'm absolutely thinking on my own, and maybe you are too, but the bottom line is that most people are going to react to stimuli from the media, their leaders and Facebook. Don't hate me man, I'm just the messenger.
I dont, I really dont, I just do not think it is usefull if the 2 of us engage in an endless discussion about who interprets the information and numbers correctly at this point in this Thread . Thats why I - bluntly I know but 'heh*, I am German XD - decided to stop this discussion from my side .
Ah, so I don't buy into your narrative and it's time to disengage, eh? That goes right into the "argument win column" for me.
All the best to you, too. Don't forget to wash your hands
Ah, so I don't buy into your narrative and it's time to disengage, eh? That goes right into the "argument win column" for me.
All the best to you, too. Don't forget to wash your hands
See, your first sentence is exactly why I stopped this discussion . And again, all the best to you . Stay safe !
COVID-19
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Experience
Do the math .
Yes, it's always best that when your line of reasoning is not holding up in a discussion to know when to fold your tent.
There's not enough data to properly do the math which leaves us estimating. I think my estimates are better than yours.Scroll down a bot for their numbers .COVID-19
See all information on COVID-19, situation updates, risk assessments, questions and answers, latest evidence, surveillance and laboratory guidance and how to protect yourself and others.www.ecdc.europa.eu
Numbers as published by WHO .Experience
experience.arcgis.com
Do the math .
Personally I can't do any better:"I don't know." All I know is that both infected and casualty stats are too low, and I can't say which one is more off. As for casualties: when it comes to the elderly, and even more so those with existing conditions, nobody typically cares much why they died. So there aren't many resources invested into figuring it out; put something on the form and move on. As for the infected; it is probably going to be wildly under-reported among the younger demographics.
It doesn't matter that much at the moment anyway. What matters is how many people need to go to ICU, and how we can slow that down.
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Big agree with you there, Ian.
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