I agree. But we're talking about a situation where those systems collapse, or are close to failing.
General / Off-Topic The safest place
- Thread starter Robin of Spiritwood
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I agree. But we're talking about a situation where those systems collapse, or are close to failing.
I seriously worry about this world when I read stories like this.
Hospitals are managing resonably well here. Infection curves have flattened and ICU capacity is gradually increeced.
Despite one of the highest(tested) infection rates, we only have 7 dead(89 years average age).
This will not end in a hurry, but it’s at least a resonably controlled disaster.
People have been abusing shop workers too, since the panic buying started. They are also risking their health and the health of their families, so that people can continue to shop, and yet get little or no recognition for their efforts.
If that's all it turns out to be then it's not a disaster, it's a dramatic over reaction to a non-problem.
What country do you live in, Han? Edit: nvmd, just saw that it's Norway
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For who? Norwegians or all of us?
Almost 5,000 dead in Italy as of today. This is already a disaster.
Half of my brain is wondering if the most of the world isn't acting like a body in anaphylactic shock, slowly killing itself because overreaction of its immune system *)
The other half keeps telling me that the lockdown and the curfew are the only solutions to slow it down until a treatment and/or a vaccine is developed.
For now i'm fully supportive to the curfew imposed over the night in my country and i'd wish for even stronger measures, but i'm quite annoyed by the lack of mass testing.
Less than 10000 tests were performed, only to the people coming from hot-spots or to people that were in contact with the already confirmed
in the mean time, the second covid-19 related death was reported in my country - 74 yo male, pre-existing conditions (chronic diseases, dependent of dialysis)
466 confirmed, 64 recovered, 14 in intensive care (3 really serious), 2 deaths. Lack of mass testing means thousands more could be positive/sick
Also we have close to 5000 in quarantine and over 50000 in isolation at home
*) https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/influenza-(seasonal)
Read between the lines of my comment.
The problem with this thing is that (as already visible elsewhere) this thing can be a disaster, but doesn't have to be. It all depends on how we act. As a wise fellow once said:"You'll never know if you did too much to prevent a catastrophe, but you will know for sure when you did not do enough." The coming weeks will be revealing. For example, the Netherlands and Belgium have comparable demographics, started on this adventure pretty much at the same time but chose different paths: Belgium enforced a solid lock down, the Netherlands going for a milder approach and simply requesting people to use common sense and stay inside. The effects of the different approaches is not visible yet, but will become visible in the next 10 days at most. In the Netherlands, we'll run out of ICU beds in a week if nothing changes. Three scenarios are possible:
1) Both countries will be fine, the 'curve flattens', a number of already infirm regrettably die and slowly we ease back to normality. This would mean Belgium over-reacted for two weeks. I will be able to live with that.
2) Belgium will flatten the curve sufficiently, the Netherlands don't. That means the Netherlands will start the 'Italy scenario' in 7-10 days. We'll know Belgium did enough, and the Netherlands did not. Harsher measures will come into effect, but it will take two more weeks for it to work. Many will die. I will be happy for the country that I have lived in for six years now, but... less happy for my home country.
3) Both countries are screwed. Neither did enough (though what more could Belgium have done, I know not). The Netherlands will be hit even harder, but neither will look pretty. This will look very bad for every country about to face this.
Meanwhile, the next five days will show wether Italy's lockdown has succeeded in stopping their nightmare. The next 1-3 days tops should be the peak, after that it should fall. If not, things will look very bad up north in Europe. If it works that is great news for Belgium, and the Netherlands will have to see if their gamble pays off.
I tend to look at the lack of testing to date in a positive light: there have likely been millions infected worldwide for months, so the mortality rates are much lower than our current data indicates. In fact, given the lack of testing and information concerning the origins of the virus, most of the data is so incomplete as to be virtually useless.
There have not been millions of infected for months. That is simply not how exponential growth works. If there have been millions of infected for months, there would be hundreds of millions of infected today. Our understanding of this virus is growing by the day, the realities of what we currently see cannot be explained with the idea of millions of unknowingly infected for months. That is, as much as I wished that to be true, nothing but wishful thinking.
Two week incubation period, lack of testing now means it'll be worse down the line.
Precisely this ^
In terms of raw survival, you are basically better of if you can take care of yourself, being as independent of others and extensive facilities/infrastructure as much as possible . Needless to say that being carefull to not injure yourself, and/or being able to treat injuries/illnesses yourself, is kindof paramount ?
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When a person dies of something, that is exceptionally important information. Just one. One person dies of something, or is diagnosed with something, and that death or diagnosis forms the foundation of the complex models used to predict how things move, will likely develop, and can be countered.
Case in point, this is how we beat SARS last time. The information gathered from every available source made the suppression of its spread possible. People talk about this like this is the first time we've ever done this. It isn't. No, infection rates are not likely known, but every ounce of data we have is extremely useful.
I don't agree with that. Yes, testing can help in some ways so by all means lets increase our global capacity, but it's likely that the virus is so well spread that we're just just constantly closing gates behind herds of horses who've already gotten out. In California, as I suggested would happen about a week ago, they released an advisory to quit placing so much importance on testing and instead focus on treatment. Testing is just going to show us what we all know: it's everywhere, and a test won't help you when what you need is treatment. Nobody wants to hear that now, but within two-three weeks from present what I'm saying is extremely likely to be common sense.
Never ceases to amaze me how people can simply ignore that the lack of testing is costing lives, and if they do NOT ignore it, seem to be very fine with that . Am not sure whether I am happy about you being on the same planet with me guys... XD .
edit: spelling
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It never ceases to amaze me how guys like you, and this an all too common strategy on the forum, act as if they have all the answers.
Testing is how you can more aggressively target the virus, that's why south Korea is doing so well against it (reportedly). People who are not infected can continue to keep things running, staged release from lockdown and such. To quote the Dr in the video I posted on that last page "you can't fight what you can't see". Or that may be from the Predator
still sensible.With extensive testing you don't have medics on precautionary home isolation and the wider problems don't get as bad.
It’s where all the Iditarod winners come from.
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