I mean, Kingdom Come Deliverance has sold 1 million in two weeks and has been fairly quiet during production and is a fairly niche game. The drawback is of course for CIG that they run the risk of already filling the market before release and is an even MORE niche game.
This sounds like an argument that's being made to suggest they're not going to sell any significant quantity of copies of Sq42 - is that what you meant to do?
If it's going to sell it needs to exceed CoD:IW by a wide margin graphically and gameplay/script wise as it looked very similar only less spectacular. People who didn't enjoy that won't touch it
With a few more years until release that's looking extremely unlikely sadly.