The Timescale for 'Walking Around Your Spacecraft & Landing on Planets' Was 2-3 Years

"That sort of time scale".

Is not:

"Yes that is the exact timeframe that I am promising."

It's amazing how deep people will dig and stretch a few words in what they perceive as a full legal document with all the subtext to confirm whatever it is they want it to.

The estimate was made in June 2014. It's now March 2020, almost 6 years later. Unless we're talking geological timescales - and we're not - in no wise can 3 years be taken as an approximation of 6.No digging or stretching required.

You should know by now - we should all know by now - you can't really take FD's word for anything.
 
I don't buy the 'other franchises have stolen resources' argument. FDev's general staffing expansions have easily mopped up the difference IMO. (As a basic overview, they started with approx 240 staff when ED started dev, and have approx 500+ now). FDev have also regularly maintained that staffing was unaffected for the bulk of that period ([1],[2],[3],[4],[5]).

If that's the case though, why did they make beyond free? Yes i can imagine many valid answers to this. But at the same time, we didn't know that frontier had their heart set on the second dlc being space legs, if we got charged from beyond im sure it would have been.. not impossible. No idea at all, but my guess was they pulled the vet (cobra?) staff from elite to seed the new dev teams and turned the heat down on elite to focus on the new projects.. especially because they were still growing and companies have growing pains almost certainly. So they made a focus on one less thing, make elite a catchup year in all aspects and don't charge for it. While 2 other major releases were developed and shipped.. random daydreaming anyway from back when i cared more.

Also mb and ss also jumped ship which maybe effected the experience pool on elite.. maybe they need time for people to get comfortable replacing those senior roles?
 
That theory really does still not fly with other FDEV statements suggesting a long term plan of 10+years etc, unless you take that very rough indication as strictly literal in that the most significant and probably complex elements of FDEV plans for ED were to be delivered under a third of that long term plan


As mentioned I think the easiest reading of the above is that they were considering two PDLCs from their roadmap for a 2-3 year window, one Planding, one Legs. If we take the most likely 'first step' candidates for both Legs + Plandings, that would be:

  • Landing/ driving / prospecting on airless rocky planets, moons & asteroids
  • Walking around interiors and combative boarding of other ships


Leaving Atmospherics and Station interiors as deeply complex elements still to be achieved. Plus the oddity of 'executive control' ships ;)

The '10 Year Plan' itself has been spoken about in various ways, including as an aspiration that they can extend beyond that time-frame. I don't think it's a hugely robust metric in this case, given the potential flex within it (and the potential for it to include the slide into eventual maintenance etc. Who knows how long that phase could have been 'planned' for, and what PDLC cadence that would therefore imply).

If you really want to go for it though, 5 planned PDLCs at 1.5 years per PDLC, with a 2.5 year maintenance tail off, does actually fit ;)
 
If that's the case though, why did they make beyond free?


Because they were sticking to their plan of primarily monetising via the roadmapped PDLCs? (Which they had somewhat pre-sold by marketing those core additions alongside the LEP).

Plus they had the financial buffer to do so, thanks to ED's decent sales across multiple platforms, and um, the decent sales of other franchises ;)
 
As mentioned I think the easiest reading of the above is that they were considering two PDLCs from their roadmap for a 2-3 year window, one Planding, one Legs. If we take the most likely 'first step' candidates for both Legs + Plandings, that would be:




Leaving Atmospherics and Station interiors as deeply complex elements still to be achieved. Plus the oddity of 'executive control' ships ;)

The '10 Year Plan' itself has been spoken about in various ways, including as an aspiration that they can extend beyond that time-frame. I don't think it's a hugely robust metric in this case, given the potential flex within it (and the potential for it to include the slide into eventual maintenance etc. Who knows how long that phase could have been 'planned' for, and what PDLC cadence that would therefore imply).

If you really want to go for it though, 5 planned PDLCs at 1.5 years per PDLC, with a 2.5 year maintenance tail off, does actually fit ;)


It's also worth keeping in mind that some takes on the 10 year plan include the 10 years starting from the beginning on the Kickstarter, meaning we are now approaching year 8.

There's so many ways to interpret things.

That aside, and on a personal thought, I am of the opinion that things didn't go as planned for Elite.
 

Viajero

Volunteer Moderator
I don't think it's a hugely robust metric in this case
It is as robust as the Braben quote in your OP ;) Simply ballparks and very rough orders of magnitude. Also Beyond happened. Trying to assign literality to those very rough indications as you try is just a very efficient recipe for salt :)
 
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It is as robust at the Braben quote in your OP ;) Simply ballparks and very rough orders of magnitude.

Well I'd suggest the nearer to the present the more concrete. I don't think we can draw exact parity between the two rough ballparks, as you're attempting to :p

I'd also say the first PDLC targeting (and hitting) a one-year turn-around for the flagship delivery is also direct evidence we have to hand, and it's suggestive that a relatively high cadence was being targeted. (EDIT: The delays in Horizons overall delivery cadence could also speak to the same, and the onset of blockers)
 
Because they were sticking to their plan of primarily monetising via the roadmapped PDLCs? (Which they had somewhat pre-sold by marketing those core additions alongside the LEP).

Plus they had the financial buffer to do so, thanks to ED's decent sales across multiple platforms, and um, the decent sales of other franchises ;)

Really? "We're inserting another season but we can't take money for that, its not on the roadmap!! Money only comes from the roadmap!!" Unlikely.
 
That aside, and on a personal thought, I am of the opinion that things didn't go as planned for Elite.
I think a lot of it was typical early days "Yeah, no, totally, we're looking at a few years, maybe less, no promises though, but we're on it and we have big hopes!" statements that weren't rooted in deep assessments of specific deliverables. It happens often in the big, beautiful world of games. It happens in every business.
 

Viajero

Volunteer Moderator
Well I'd suggest the nearer to the present the more concrete. I don't think we can draw exact parity between the two rough ballparks, as you're attempting to :p

Well I d argue the margin of error for a long term plan over multiple years is already huge anyways, be it 3 years or more. The speculative component in all those is so large that the distinction is not really too relevant for this particular discussion. If that rough time indication had been anywhere near as literal or specific to those scope elements as you suggest I presume it would not have been the object of just an isolated interview in a very specific national/local publication. It would have probably been the object of a wider communication action, alas Braben is clearly not intent on committing to any specifics or literality as you suggest, but rather on conveying orders of magnitude (multiple years in this case). I would imagine this is so because Braben himself was fully aware of the uncertainty and speculative elements of his plan at the time. Especially when each individual milestone content and scope is likely contingent to the commercial success of the previous ones etc. That is true at least in my line of business which is equally capex intensive.

Also Beyond happened.

Also other things not purely ED related happened: I personally think one of the main components (not the only one though) leading to FDEV release timing decisions is commercial and overall portfolio management related. And not strictly dev challenges related.
 
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The Timescale for 'Walking Around Your Spacecraft & Landing on Planets' Was Approx 2-3 Years





Planetary Landings Aimed For 'Within a Year of Release' & Hit:




'Exiting the Ship' & 'Interiors' Were Planned for the Second PDLC:




Conclusion:

Ok so clearly something went wrong. We can only guess what. The TLDR is probably: Legs difficult ;)

Were there big technical blockers, to do with the core tech, and maybe console compatibility? Were dead-ends pursued that had to be abandoned? Were the devs overstretched due to working on Seasonal features + flagship expansions + rolling GAAS content?

Probably all of the above.


Flip Side:

As painfully slow as the shift to non-Seasonal delivery has been, and as discouraging as it was to learn that they only entered full production in 2018 (IE they hadn't managed to start + maintain a full DLC run in parallel with Horizons). I'm taking the following positives:

  • They seem to be through whatever blockers they were struggling with.
  • They're focused primarily on the DLC, and making it a big 'all in one' delivery.

TLDR: Game's not dead. Game's adding something chunky finally.

;)
There hasn't been a second dlc though, has there?
 
Good question. Also, where are the things we were promissed that have nothing to do with Elite, huh?

giphy.gif
Yeah, where's my hot redhead wife?
 
Now now... The OP used the term "approx" to described Braben's use of "about that timescale". He's hardly building the strawman you're suggesting he's guilty of...
Thread title:
The Timescale for 'Walking Around Your Spacecraft & Landing on Planets' Was 2-3 Years
 
What's the rush? You got some where to be?

That's the cool thing about games. You can turn them off and walk away. Come back years later and pick up from where you left off.
And since there is on-going developments it may be different when you come back.

The cool thing is the new stuff is coming... that in itself is exciting!
 
Breaking news: space trading games hard to develop

In other news: tea being packed in paper container

I just hope they don't try to do too much in the way of a FPS type of game. If they put a bunch of resources into that, they're basically competing with Borderlands, Destiny, R6Siege, Battlefront. There's just no way they can beat them.

All legs things should be to the service of enabling the spaceship game as much as possible. Or maybe they know something. Maybe they've hit some kind of sweet spot in between somewhere with combing their flavours of management-style and sim-style games. But if they just try to make another entry in the run and gun genre... I can't imagine that they can do this at the same pricepoint as others doing specifically this already.

Originally my hope was for a SC revamp and maybe also WS revamp, or at least something to do on the ship on longer hauls, but I think what I look forward to the most is just seeing these ship interiors. I saw some concept art for one once and it just screamed 70s scifi. It looked like a combination of 2001, Star Wars,and Alien. I just really want to see what these interiors are like. See how they differ by manufacturer.
 
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The Timescale for 'Walking Around Your Spacecraft & Landing on Planets' Was 2-3 Years
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The Timescale for 'Walking Around Your Spacecraft & Landing on Planets' Was Approx 2-3 Years

Are you suggesting the OP was not being fair by using the term "approx 2-3 years" to reference Braben's "about 2-3 years"?

Because if so... Hmmm...
 
You should know by now - we should all know by now - you can't really take FD's word for anything.


I wouldn't say that's fair. Delivery slipping when undertaking something absurdly ambitious doesn't mean you can't 'take their word' on other topics etc.

(Although I get that it's a sore point right now given the second Carriers push etc ;). I'm just kicked back on that because it's clearly a side-effect of the PDLC focus. And I want them to do something decent with that, and get a step closer to those Han Solo simulator dreams they wove at launch ;))
 
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