Speaking as the person who started the Lugh thread and writer of our storyline I say let the chips fall where they may. I want to win but that does not mean that I have the right to win. Lugh has taken on the Federation or should I more accurately say the Federation has taken on Lugh! The fact is it was never going to be a fair fight.
The most eye opening truth I have noticed about all of this are the number of players that instead of fighting on the side of 'players' and what players can actually achieve in this game they seem to prefer to stamp on our sand castle. To working your fingers to the bone on something get rewarded by players seeking a cheap thrill to dismantle it. They are freely within their right to do so but it has thought me a lesson about the nature of human beings as a whole. What is actually more interesting are the statistics that go with that. Very interesting indeed.
It is illogical to me that players offered a chance to make a real mark on the game, a real difference, something players have craved since Gamma would prefer to see to it that we fail. I personally see no reward in that but it is only my opinion.
The community will get what the community wants.
Personally, I'm a dirty feddy scum sucker, but not by choice.
I simply weighed the consequences of fighting for either side, and came to the conclusion that fighting for the Federation makes since as a long term investment. How many potential systems is the Crimsons gonna control? One, if they get lucky. How many does the Federation control right? Hundreds, possibly thousands (I didn't count because I'm not insane). Sure, if I fight for the Crimson boys, they'll like me sure, but the Federation probably isn't going to be as forgiving... I'm probably going to go down in rep with them if I fight against them (understandable so), and so knows how low it'll get! I might end up as hostile, and since my favorite RES farming site (and where all my ships are currently being kept) is in Feddy space, my life is going to be made a living hell. Also, add into the fact that they seemed to have kicked off this rebellion in a very tense time, where basically the Feds and Imps are basically giving each other death stares while their fingers are hovering over their respective 'War to end all wars' buttons and the Alliance has got to be planning something; letting any rebellious system succeed would be seen as a sign of weakness, basically means that the Feds have to send in everything they got to prove to the other big players in town that they are not to be trifled with. So, yeah, capital ships on top of the overwhelming odds. And then add in the community goals! All the Feds gotta do is blow up ships, while the Crimson boys gotta smuggle stuff (which is already difficult)... And I suck at smuggling!
So, if I fight for the Crimson I get...
+Money from combat bonds
+/-'Free' the system, and install new government
-Rep lost with the Feds
-Probably blown up by a capital ships.
If I fight for the Feds I get..
+Rep with the Feds (and their entire network of Fed controlled systems)
+Money from combat bonds
+Capital Ship support (which means more money)
+A community goal that I can actually do efficiently, and enjoy doing.
-Lose CSG rep.
So the choice is pretty easy for me.
And, if by some hail Mary pass, the Crimson manages to pull a hat-trick and snag the victory, their fleet is going to be measurably wrecked, leaving them as easy pickings for another big faction like the Empire (who, according to some, seems to be moving their big boys in that direction) to swoop in and invade. The Federation isn't going to be in any position to help, either, since they just lost a ton of resources trying to keep the system in their control, and the Alliance isn't going to be helping either since it appears to be quite a ways out from their back yard.
So, it really isn't kicking over your sandcastle, it's more or less getting better long term rewards for kicking over your sand castle.