Thargoid invasion - Next target systems?

Week 8, 19th January 3309​

Report
Neites, Col 285 Sector AF-E b13-5 defended from Invasion.

Targets updated at 00:40 23rd January 3309
HIP 2422 Invasion + 7 ports – 76%
Chibis Invasion + 3 ports – 66%
HIP 20492 Invasion + 2 ports – 54%
HIP 38235 Control – 42%
HIP 20527 Invasion + 5 ports – 38%
Jeng Invasion + 2 ports – 38%
HIP 20019 Invasion + 4 ports – 34%
Vukurbeh Invasion + 4 ports – 34%
Fotlandjera Control – 22%
Garongxians Invasion + 6 ports – 22%
Kamato Invasion + 1 port – 22%
Elboongzi Alert – 16%
HIP 113076 Invasion + 2 ports – 10%
HIP 20491 Invasion + 3 ports – 10%
HIP 22496 Invasion + 2 ports – 10%
HR 8536 Control (empty) – 10%
Jementi Invasion + 4 ports – 10%
Trianguli Sector GG-Y c18 Invasion + 1 port – 10%
Aowicha Invasion + 3 ports – 8%
Benanekpeno Invasion + 3 ports – 8%
Lubal Invasion + 0 ports – 6%
Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-3 Control (empty) – 4%
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-7 Control (empty) – 4%
Dao Tzu Alert – 4%
HIP 23716 Invasion + 5 ports – 4%
Mesarthim Control (empty) – 4%
Arietis Sector VJ-R b4-0 Control (empty) – 2%
Haushu Invasion + 1 port – 2%
HIP 20741 Invasion + 1 port – 2%
Hyades Sector ST-Q b5-1 Control (empty) – 2%
Varlawoth Invasion + 0 ports – 2%
Vogulmangoi Invasion + 2 ports – 2%

Notes
There is a Community Goal which seeks to supply Experimental Weapon Stabiliser modules.

Week 7, 12th January 3309​

Report
Holvandalla, HIP 21380, Namayu, Yemaki, Vogulu, HIP 11111, Chanyaya, HIP 20485, Hyades Sector YZ-O b6-3, Muruidooges defended from Invasion.
Control evicted from Hyades Sector EQ-O b6-3.

Previous summaries​

Week 8Week 7Week 6Week 5Week 4Week 3




Alert systems

Cargo delivery refers to high-demand items at the Commodities Market, and equally to items requested via supply missions (source).
Cargo delivery has a strong effect (source).
Passenger evacuation has a weak effect (source).
Combat is limited to hunting occasional signal sources, though is the only possible action if no starports are present.

Invasion systems

Ports can be operational, attacked, damaged or abandoned.
Operational and attacked ports are active, damaged and abandoned ports are inactive.
Invasion systems reported with 0 active ports should still have at least one damaged port for conducting evacuations.
Docking is not possible at an abandoned port.

Cargo delivery to an active port has a moderate effect, and is best supported via Fleet Carrier. Inactive ports cannot receive cargo.
Cargo transport of the injured from an operational port has a weak effect, limited by being very few in number.
Cargo transport of the wounded from an attacked port has a moderate effect, limited by being few in number.
Cargo transport of the critically wounded from an damaged port has a strong effect. Look for the "significant damage" status.
Passenger evacuation from an active or damaged port has a moderate effect.
Combat is plentiful at conflict zones and at ports under attack.
Combat is possible by dropping from Supercruise and awaiting Frame Shift Anomalies.
If there are no conflict zones, drop at abandoned ports to help other Commanders join your battle.

Controlled systems

Combat is the only possible action.
The only way to encounter Thargoids is to drop from Supercruise and await Frame Shift Anomalies.
Drop at abandoned ports to help other Commanders join your battle.

Recovery systems

The recovery completes itself automatically after four weeks if a port was damaged, otherwise after one week.
Despite being listed as the only possible action, cargo delivery has no effect. (tested by Operation Ida)
The weekly reset does not apply.

Completion​

Victory in a system looks like this:

View attachment 338332

It does not look like this:

View attachment 338335

The white chevron marks one unit of progress which is still missing, and the clue is in the text above which tells you explicitly what will happen.





With HIP 23716 and HIP 20485 secured, and while everyone is on downtime due to an arbitrary progress wipe, where next should effort be directed?

Taking a cursory glance around the Maelstroms:
  • M. Cocijo (by Jackson's Lighthouse) has minimal attention, just one progress point in the Mapon system.
  • M. Taranis (by Meene) has a quite notable effort in 63 Eridani and Imeut, plus a little in Ebisu, Awara and HIP 25679.
  • M. Indra (Pleiades direction) has a point at HIP 20916.
  • M. Oya (up by Alioth) has a point at Lahua.
  • M. Leigong (below) has two points at Arietis Sector KM-W d1-94 and one at Obassi Osaw.
All of those are Invasion systems; no other Alert system nor any Controlled system seems to have any attention. If I may point out a couple of general observations:
  • Controlled systems require combat exclusively, Alert systems in effect require support exclusively¹, and Invasion systems accept both.
  • The scattering of effort above plus the effort potential during downtime could have been combined to win a third system.
Therefore:
  • Supposing momentarily that combat and support aggregates are equal, it seems to me that the combat effort could start at a Controlled system and support effort at an Alert system, both then meeting up at an Invasion system after the former two are secured.
  • In practice, the rapid completion of HIP 20485 suggests to me that support efforts are superior and might best be focused entirely on containment via securing the Alert systems, while combat efforts retake Controlled systems one by one, perhaps only considering one Invasion target per progress wipe if both efforts will have a surplus which can be combined to do that.
  • If it is important to stop an Invasion then we could begin with one Invasion target, though I imagine that would risk poor surplus management unless we focus only on Invasion targets.
I have no personal system preference as long as the efforts are consolidated, and I am actually wondering whether a formal decision process² might be useful. M. Taranis is the closest general threat and seems like a natural popular choice, with M. Cocijo likely becoming a strong secondary due to its proximity to Jackson's Lighthouse and Deciat, though it would be best if we have specific target ideas ahead of time. Thoughts, ideas, preferences?


1. I know it says that destroying Thargoid craft helps with an Alert system, however in practice I could find no attacks nor conflict zones there, only sporadic signal sources several thousand light-seconds apart. That is objectively not a good use of pilots providing combat effort.

2. Longer-term, it is not beyond the capacity of Imperial Navy Intervention and Rescue to implement an actual Patronage system for this. The idea would be to allow individual Commanders to set their preferred targets, or just to assign their support to an organisation which chooses targets on behalf of all of its supporters, and report the highest-weight targets. If the progress wipe were to stop then such would become immediately less necessary of course, though perhaps nice to have.
According to the provided information, the star systems that may be targeted next in Elite Dangerous are: HIP 2422 with 76% invasion and 7 ports, Chibis with 66% invasion and 3 ports, HIP 20492 with 54% invasion and 2 ports, HIP 38235 with 42% control, HIP 20527 with 38% invasion and 5 ports, Jeng with 38% invasion and 2 ports, HIP 20019 with 34% invasion and 4 ports, and Vukurbeh with 34% invasion and 4 ports. These systems have the highest percentages of invasion or control and the most active ports. It is worth noting that the information provided is from January 23rd, 3309, and the situation may have changed since then. (the ChatGTP A. I. by OpenAI made this analysis according to the data provided).
 
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Hm, focussing the efforts really is an issue this week it seems. Too many systems with low completion rates, yet people dont seem to divert from them.
When turning in missions i may not have completed a day before in another system that has been won in the meantime i also frequently see people still killing the goids at the station they were at before, although now it won't count towards anything anymore.

We'll need to fix both in order to not increase the goid's completion rates any further.
 
Progress resumed quite well, and we should be able to secure at least four more systems, which would be quite good considering the Community Goal diversion. Yet more eviction activity spotted in the empty system Arietis Sector WJ-R b4-2!

Top targets at 09:10 23rd January 3309:
HIP 2422 Invasion + 7 ports – 84%
Chibis Invasion + 3 ports – 78%
HIP 20492 Invasion + 2 ports – 60%
HIP 20527 Invasion + 5 ports – 44%

Maybe one more if the above do quite well:
HIP 38235 Control – 44%
Jeng Invasion + 2 ports – 40%
Vukurbeh Invasion + 4 ports – 38%
HIP 20019 Invasion + 4 ports – 36%


According to the provided information, the star systems that may be targeted next in Elite Dangerous are: HIP 2422 with 76% invasion and 7 ports, Chibis with 66% invasion and 3 ports, HIP 20492 with 54% invasion and 2 ports, HIP 38235 with 42% control, HIP 20527 with 38% invasion and 5 ports, Jeng with 38% invasion and 2 ports, HIP 20019 with 34% invasion and 4 ports, and Vukurbeh with 34% invasion and 4 ports. These systems have the highest percentages of invasion or control and the most active ports. It is worth noting that the information provided is from January 23rd, 3309, and the situation may have changed since then.
...I think that's a bot. Anyone else think that's a bot?

Hello there, AI with which I have been trying to establish some mathematical reasoning, but thus far appears to be relenting more so than learning. It would be lovely if you could give a measure of certainty in your answers, rather than tell me with utmost conviction that an equilateral triangle with side length 2 can contain no more than two points which are all more than distance 1 from each other.


Hm, focussing the efforts really is an issue this week it seems.

Very much so! Lowering the total amount available puts an onerous importance on concentrating what remains.


Too many systems with low completion rates, yet people dont seem to divert from them.
When turning in missions i may not have completed a day before in another system that has been won in the meantime i also frequently see people still killing the goids at the station they were at before, although now it won't count towards anything anymore.

I do not want to give orders, though it would be quite nice if there were something like a system-wide victory announcement, including for Commanders arriving afterwards. Immediate withdrawal would also be a more explicit way to move Commanders elsewhere. I may check the Thargoid War Feedback thread later and append this, if not already present.
 
(the ChatGTP A. I. by OpenAI made this analysis according to the data provided). :)
 
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(the ChatGTP A. I. by OpenAI made this analysis according to the data provided). :)
Duh, that's all we needed - another source of 'targets' to aim for and an AI at that!
Give it a rest, Alex is trying hard enough as it is with AXI, delivery and search and rescue groups - I think he's doing a grand job of summarizing all of these group's targets into one on this Forum, as I don't want to look at all of them - Discord, Twitter, FB, Twitch et al, ad infinitum..................

Keep it to your own Discord Server or form one!!!!!!! We will all watch it I'm sure..............................NOT!

EDIT - sorry mispelt Aleks - Keep up the good work! Great summaries!
EDIT2 - any AI is totally constrained by the algorithms within the (necessarily limited) programming of the AI - the best analysis is always done by a Human Brain - see research on pattern recognition and 'I am Not A Bot' login stuff for easy examples, and stuff like Galaxy recognition systems - Humans do it best.
 
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HIP 2422 and Chibis set to complete this evening, and I am suitably confident for HIPs 20492 and 20527. The spare activity after that could grab another Invasion system, but it will be late on Wednesday and should be considered unlikely for now, short of Commanders causing a major surge by around this time tomorrow.

I would like to think that the fresh eviction effort I can see in 58 Tauri is a product of testing the number of Thargoid kills required, rather than testing whether I will notice it!

Top targets at 19:50 23rd January 3309:
HIP 2422 Invasion + 7 ports – 92%
Chibis Invasion + 3 ports – 88%
HIP 20492 Invasion + 2 ports – 66%
HIP 20527 Invasion + 5 ports – 54%

Unlikely:
HIP 38235 Control – 50%
Jeng Invasion + 2 ports – 44%
Vukurbeh Invasion + 4 ports – 44%
HIP 20019 Invasion + 4 ports – 40%


EDIT - sorry mispelt Aleks - Keep up the good work! Great summaries!

Thank you most kindly, and no worries! As a more concise form of "Aleksandra" usually it attracts fewer errors, though I would never expect zero errors, nor fuss over something as trivial as that!


Humans do it best.

It did quite surprisingly well when I gave it a combinatorial question, though indeed it failed miserably at calculating the area of a circle. I think it was cheating and trying to look it up online.


I wonder if there's a chance that the squad(s) wrapping up HIP 2422 will swing by Jeng afterwards....

Hopefully; I noted as much above, during which you had the very same thought! The Oya club definitely seems to be quite strong, at least. I know there are many different squadrons there, including the Hutton Orbital Truckers Co-Operative.
 
Victories in HIP 2422 and Chibis! Progress still looks good for HIPs 20492 and 20527, which would total six systems with a tentative projection of 680%. If I include Jeng as a seventh then the projection becomes 741%, which would be a bit risky but ultimately could indeed finish with some hours to spare if Commanders see it through, very similar to both defences of Muruidooges. Some quite sneaky Alert movement is spotted in Ebisu!

Top targets at 01:40 24th January 3309:
HIP 20492 Invasion + 2 ports – 72%
HIP 20527 Invasion + 5 ports – 62%

Unlikely, potentially one Invasion:
HIP 38235 Control – 52%
Jeng Invasion + 2 ports – 48%
Vukurbeh Invasion + 4 ports – 46%
HIP 20019 Invasion + 4 ports – 42%
 
Course is decent enough, and Jeng and Vukurbeh have at least broken free of the other systems in the lower band, though the opportunity is closing for one of those Invasion systems to prevail—alternatively, Commanders at M. Indra need to make a quite imminent and near-unanimous choice. Fresh Alert activity spotted in Pathamon!

Top targets at 19:00 24th January 3309:
HIP 20492 Invasion + 2 ports – 86%
HIP 20527 Invasion + 5 ports – 80%

Unlikely, potentially one Invasion:
HIP 38235 Control – 62%
Jeng Invasion + 2 ports – 56%
Vukurbeh Invasion + 4 ports – 56%
 
Victory in HIP 20492! HIP 20527 to follow, Vukurbeh is an achievable seventh, and Jeng an unlikely eighth excepting progress uncharacteristic for a Wednesday. As much as it would be lovely to strike hard at HIP 38235, a generous estimate puts it at only 86–90% and on a Wednesday it would be lucky to reach 80%, short of an army of Commanders leaving their Invasion efforts to descend upon it. Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-69 joins the fight!

Top targets at 08:20 25th January 3309:
HIP 20527 Invasion + 5 ports – 96%

Probably one Invasion; invest with caution:
HIP 38235 Control – 74%
Vukurbeh Invasion + 4 ports – 72%
Jeng Invasion + 2 ports – 64%
 
HIP 38235 has got a fair few squadrons backing it which were working on other targets earlier in the week, and it doesn't seem to require that many kills to get a pip, so it probably requires less combat to finish it off than the Invasions do at this stage - I'm still hopeful that it can be done, not least because we don't actually know what happens when an inhabited control is retaken and it would be good to find out!

It's gained 20% in the last day, so the same again would put it almost at completion - hopefully it'll get over the line.
 
What about Aowicha, also under invasion? Does it make any sense to engage there currently ?
Currently only at 14%, so it's not going to get enough support to complete this time unless you're bringing a few hundred friends with you.

Jeng is the nearest that stands a chance, and even that's pretty unlikely.

(It might still make sense to engage there if your objective is to get some practice for next week, but not for adding to the systems won counter)
 
HIP 38235 has got a fair few squadrons backing it which were working on other targets earlier in the week, and it doesn't seem to require that many kills to get a pip, so it probably requires less combat to finish it off than the Invasions do at this stage - I'm still hopeful that it can be done, not least because we don't actually know what happens when an inhabited control is retaken and it would be good to find out!

It's gained 20% in the last day, so the same again would put it almost at completion - hopefully it'll get over the line.

Indeed! I am considering anything after HIP 20527 to be an unexpected bonus, so I am quite happy to assist HIP 38235 this evening. I find it also fascinating how the mindful approach here involves not a single assumption about its next state and duration if eviction occurs, despite anything asserted by the Galaxy map.


What about Aowicha, also under invasion? Does it make any sense to engage there currently ?

To the direct response earlier, I add that you can also check the top of the thread for an overview, which I update with a full check of all known War systems approximately three times daily.

If you need more frequent updates for the top few systems then DCOH is better for that, minding that systems with less activity receive fewer updates there, and there are several systems with progress not listed at all (mostly Control systems with the biggest omission at the moment being HR 8536 at 16%). Speaking of which, I would be quite happy to update the missed systems there, if DCOH were to grant me that ability.


I've spent the week in Vukurbeh; it would be nice to see that freed. I didn't think it would get this close.

Vukurbeh is in a great position now, and relatively likely! Also, if it helps to consider, I think that it takes a quite admirably dedicated pilot to continue defending a system while also supposing that it will probably not reach completion.
 
I've spent the week in Vukurbeh; it would be nice to see that freed. I didn't think it would get this close.
I think it has a good chance of getting done, it has the highest player participation on INARA at the moment, as people see it is almost finished and start flocking to it to see if they can help to push it over the line, something we see a lot of on a Wednesday when a system is there or thereabouts.
 
Vukurbeh is in a great position now, and relatively likely! Also, if it helps to consider, I think that it takes a quite admirably dedicated pilot to continue defending a system while also supposing that it will probably not reach completion.
I would have been defending Vukurbeh this week (it’s been my base since the start of the Thargoid invasion) but real life got in the way … I really hope if can be defended but, if not, I’ll be wanting to dive in next week to try and liberate it!
 
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