Thargoid invasion - Next target systems?

[Aleks Zuno]

Probably-important news: There is progress being registered in the Barnacle Matrix systems. A hypothesis is that this is caused by rescues from the titans, but I'm not sure there's any way to prove that. It isn't evently-distributed, so maybe each big turn-in goes to a random system? Or it may be unrelated?

Definitely important! I imagine conventional means still has no effect, and without having checked I do not imagine that the Matrix sites are different prior to update 17, which really leaves those activity reports coinciding with Titan rescues becoming available.

Excepting some Matrix systems being chosen over others—not having checked said others, mind—the uneven distribution seems to be a plausible result based on system strength and Titan popularity. I imagine the only way to prove anything would be as with other salvage; amassing so much of it for a such large delivery that it overwhelms other activity!

As an aside, I got as far as freeing some pods, but in general I have a lot of trouble doing anything for more than a minute or two before a Glaive finds me regardless of Silent Running. Is it a case of operating from afar; remaining nearby only long enough to scan and target the pod area, then stay far back and use missiles and collectors from a less well-patrolled position?

 

[yttrbio]

No, don't stay far back. Hug the thing like it's your mum. Even if everyone sees you, most of them can't fire. I can do about 40 per run in my cutter tank, with no effort towards stealth. Here's an example. Note that scythes will try to fight you for the pods (you can see two competing constellations of collectors here), but they don't seem to do a good job stealing them from your own collectors.

 

[yttrbio]

Observation: The TBM systems with progress are all counterstrike systems, and the ones without all aren't, at least in the few maelstroms I've checked. The ones with the most progress are further out. This is consistent (though not necessarily proven) with rescue progress being evenly divided among all of a maelstrom's counterstrike Barnacle Matrix systems

 

[yttrbio]

I am amending my hypothesis to this: Rescues contribute to ALL counterstrike systems (Barnacle Matrix or not), and they just forgot to exclude the matrix systems. Note the negative correlation between progress and distance.

 

[MVBanks]

I haven't been keeping up with the war and its mechanics, but this week I tried to do some low intensity CZs in controlled systems around Indra. I noticed that in most (if not all) cases after the initial wave of Cyclopes, the second wave consists of Medusas.They mop the floor with all the NPCs and are impossible to beat for someone without the right ship, available time or quantity of caffeine.

Is this a function of the proximity to the maelstrom? Or has there been any change to CZ scaling that I missed? Or is it simply a scenario bug that I should report? I remember seeing Medusas only in CZs medium or higher.

Does it maybe have something to do with the combat rank of the pilot? Cmdr Weps, what is your combat rank?
I've noticed many times that when I'm alone in AX CZ, I often get Medusa after the first wave of Cyclopses. I'm Elite V.
When there are many cmdrs and the ranks are different, usually from expert to elite V, then it almost never happens that Medusa appears.

 

[yttrbio]

One more detail regarding rescues from the titan. It's looking like rescues need to go to rescue ships to count. Rescues turned in at random stations don't seem to have an impact on war progress.

 

[Kira Goto]

but they don't seem to do a good job stealing them from your own collectors.

I assume you already know, but they will also pester you with their breach drones if there’s nothing better for them to do. Which is rather annoying if you’re in something that is not capable of fitting an ECM unless you ditch a heatsink(which, for better or for worse, I’m not willing to).

So I’ve started trying to pay attention to when the Titan opens up its side exits and if it’s a Scythe, wait for it to just go away(they usually seem to).

(I would have been surprised if anyone had thought you could deliver these pods to anywhere for progress, seeing how pretty much all the non-combat mechanics use the rescue ships. But good to have that base covered, I suppose.)

Also made the experience of getting shot by Titan turrets due to a stubborn Glaive at the asteroid perimeter which I couldn’t lose there. They really are a joke.

 

[yttrbio]

Interesting. I haven't had any scythes trying breach drones on me, and they definitely noticed me. Maybe there's just always enough pods for them to collect that they don't have space.

UPDATE: Whoops, forgot about my shield. I fly shielded, so I guess it would avoid this issue.

 

[yttrbio]

All righty, we've finished our first set of testing. Assuming all our assumptions are correct (big if, of course), 5 rescues turned in to a rescue ship are worth 1 sample in every counterstrike system around that titan including barnacle matrix sites

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Amid the chaos unleashed, defence efforts first—victories in Col 285 Sectors UC-B b14-0, SS-H b11-5, RM-C b13-1, SS-H b11-4 and ZE-P c6-16, and Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-3! HIP 20527 and Holvandalla are doing well, and if anyone is looking to ease some warranted Control targets, INIV will be clearing Vaipacnali then HIP 19198 over the next few days.

Alerts at 06:40 6th October 3309:
HIP 20527 Alert 58% *58.3% — Indra 23 Ly, 595 Ls starport, 834 Ls outpost, 4806 Ls planet
Holvandalla Alert 26% — Raijin 21 Ly, 86 Ls starport, 19 Ls outpost, 43 Ls planet

Clean-up:
Cephei Sector FB-X b1-1 Alert 60% — Oya 20 Ly, empty
Cephei Sector AV-Y b0 Alert 52% *53.3% — Oya 24 Ly, empty
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-15 Alert 32% — Cocijo 18 Ly, empty
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-0 Alert 30% — Hadad 19 Ly, empty
Col 285 Sector WN-Z b14-5 Alert 28% *29% — Hadad 21 Ly, empty


Indeed, suddenly we have several dozen more Control systems with visible progress! M. Indra is doing particularly well; if Titan rescues are contributing to all Counterstrike systems, including those empty systems identifiable only by the Galaxy map marker being brighter, M. Indra is on-course to complete at least a dozen that way. Merely the first third or so look like this:

Arietis Sector OH-V b2-5 Control 22% — Indra 27 Ly, empty, 323 strength
Hyades Sector EX-H a11-1 Control 22% — Indra 27 Ly, empty, 314 strength
Arietis Sector LM-V b2-2 Control 20% — Indra 25 Ly, empty, 361 strength
Arietis Sector TY-P a6-2 Control 20% — Indra 26 Ly, empty, 350 strength
HIP 23069 Control 20% — Indra 26 Ly, empty, 340 strength
Hyades Sector UO-Q b5-2 Control 20% — Indra 26 Ly, empty, 345 strength
Hyades Sector DX-H a11-1 Matrix 16% — Indra 24 Ly, empty

Exactly as with emergent popular systems, the rescue effort at M. Indra ought to attract those seeking maximum impact.

No, don't stay far back. Hug the thing like it's your mum.

Thank you; that makes the difference! I have now some T. Thor rescuees awaiting the next Rescue megaship stop.

I am amending my hypothesis to this: Rescues contribute to ALL counterstrike systems (Barnacle Matrix or not), and they just forgot to exclude the matrix systems.

Additionally, this seems to include inhabited Counterstrike systems! Now that several empty systems at M. Indra have reached 20%, we can see the first few of its inhabited systems reaching 2%, those being generally one order stronger:

HIP 21261 Control 2% — Indra 20 Ly, 4393 strength
97 i Tauri Control 2% — Indra 21 Ly, 3847 strength
HIP 22496 Control 2% — Indra 22 Ly, 3462 strength
HIP 22524 Control 2% — Indra 20 Ly, 4483 strength

If the Matrix systems are an oversight, I think it a quite fitting oversight they deserve, insofar as they still contain Conflict zones and advertise Thargoid craft destruction as an activity. If they insist on pretending to be a normal Control system, they can abide new rules which apply to Control systems!

I would have been surprised if anyone had thought you could deliver these pods to anywhere for progress, seeing how pretty much all the non-combat mechanics use the rescue ships. But good to have that base covered, I suppose.

Indeed; I refer often to Frameshift Live #24 when discussing various war aspects, and this is one such:

We are having some new activities which are going to be contributing; salvage activities—at the moment, players have the ability to pick up and find in some scenarios things like black boxes or escape pods, or they can take tissue samples from different Thargoids. Now, what will happen is if players collect those in a system and then hand them in at a rescue ship, the system that the salvage was collected from will receive a bonus in pushing the Thargoids back. That is irrespective of what rescue ship you hand it in to, but it does have to be a rescue ship.

Update 14.02 definitely still applies:

Salvaging and then safely recovering Black Boxes and Escape Pods, obtaining and delivering Tissue Samples now all contribute towards the progress bar and resist the invasion in the location they were collected, when handed in to a rescue megaship.

 

[yttrbio]

Rescues from the titan are certainly more fun than sampling (and more profitable), but it's still slower than sampling for an individual system (with the 5-to-1 ratio, even solo). Still, for maelstroms that still have over 100 systems under control, it makes an interesting alternative option for folks burned out on sampling. I was able to do 84 rescues on a 15-minute dive, let's say 25 minutes for the whole back-and-forth, roughly 200 rescues (40 strength) per hour.

 

[Disemboweled Ego]

I am amending my hypothesis to this: Rescues contribute to ALL counterstrike systems (Barnacle Matrix or not), and they just forgot to exclude the matrix systems. Note the negative correlation between progress and distance.

Is it all counterstrike systems in the maelstrom you got the pods from or global progress on all counterstrike systems?

 

[Disemboweled Ego]

While it doesn't seem like an effective way to clear the counter-attack systems getting a few liberated barnacle matrix systems far away from the maelstroms could be really useful.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

Looks from the data to be "for that Maelstrom" - the progress is substantially more for Indra at the same distance than it is for Cocijo, for example.

and they just forgot to exclude the matrix systems.

It might even be intentional - it could be part of a future "repel the Titan" loop.
- to repel a Titan you need to clear its controls
- the Matrix sites anchor it (and maybe in future they'll get ways to create new ones more dynamically)
- so you first need to clear enough controls in general that the Matrix sites end up on counterstrike
- then use rescues to clear that Matrix
- then use the territorial advantage that gives to clear more controls to push the next Matrix into the counterstrike zone.

It'd explain why Titans can't place Controls themselves (which they had plenty of time to fix before the test completed if it was just a "we didn't think of that" situation)

 

[Disemboweled Ego]

Will this be the first barnacle matrix site liberated already?

 

[Kira Goto]

It might even be intentional - it could be part of a future "repel the Titan" loop.
- to repel a Titan you need to clear its controls
- the Matrix sites anchor it (and maybe in future they'll get ways to create new ones more dynamically)
- so you first need to clear enough controls in general that the Matrix sites end up on counterstrike
- then use rescues to clear that Matrix
- then use the territorial advantage that gives to clear more controls to push the next Matrix into the counterstrike zone.

It'd explain why Titans can't place Controls themselves (which they had plenty of time to fix before the test completed if it was just a "we didn't think of that" situation)

The difficulty curve still presents an inherent blocker to ‘repelling a Titan’, though. Unless you find enough people to collect half a milion pods in just one week(plus another 150,000 if the clear fails within that window), as some of them are at around 5 ly to the Titan.

And I’m not really sure whether to believe that it is intentional or not because there’s been no obvious signposting from Frontier. Neither in one nor the other direction. Personally more inclined toward ‘not intentional’ given their story implication, but it could just as easily be that someone decided to let more distant ones be cleared*.

*Assuming that they disappear when the control is cleared to begin with. If they don’t… well…

(It may just be me, but I think the difficulty curve should have been more gradual instead of such a steep dropoff occurring at the 17-20 ly range for systems.)

 

[Ned Flandalorian]

The matrix sites haven't even yet had their existence acknowledged in the game, they're not going to disappear.

 

[Disemboweled Ego]

The matrix sites haven't even yet had their existence acknowledged in the game, they're not going to disappear.

If we do wipe them out before they get acknowledged in game lore then we could save frontier a bunch of work!

 

[Kira Goto]

If we do wipe them out before they get acknowledged in game lore then we could save frontier a bunch of work!

As I said above, they won’t all get wiped out purely due to how close some of them are to the Titans. There’s no guarantee they’ll even disappear if the system is ‘cleared’ of Thargoids.

And their story purpose is all too apparent so they won’t let them be annihilated anyway. Wouldn’t be surprised if they were still there then, and nobody knows what to do with them. Then the lights turn on and things go a bit haywire in their surrounding space(or whatever their intended purpose is).

 

[Ian Doncaster]

The difficulty curve still presents an inherent blocker to ‘repelling a Titan’, though. Unless you find enough people to collect half a milion pods in just one week(plus another 150,000 if the clear fails within that window), as some of them are at around 5 ly to the Titan.

Sure, it wouldn't be practical under the current setup for anywhere except Leigong. But equally, repelling a Titan by any means doesn't have a sensible follow-up at the moment - it'd need to be part of a wider set of developments. But something like that would provide a reason that you couldn't (or shouldn't) just ignore the outer controls and hit the Titan directly, while also making attacks on the Titan useful before the very end.

(And agreed that we may well find the Matrix sites themselves remain even if the system is recaptured)

(It may just be me, but I think the difficulty curve should have been more gradual instead of such a steep dropoff occurring at the 17-20 ly range for systems.)

It needs to be about as steep as it is to stop it being either too easy to make progress further in, or too hard to make progress further out.

If you think in terms of "systems at a distance" rather than individual systems, it needs to be at least inverse-square difficulty to stop it getting actively easier as you approach the Titan. Inverse-cubic per-system (which it very approximately is) gives inverse-linear at each distance.