They aren't here to kill us (an overly-long analysis of Thargoid behaviour)

[Rainbro]

Reading through the recent comments highlights one problem that has been bugging me:
Why do the Thargoids react so aggressively to Guardians technology, when the war with them was not only so long ago but not, according to the Guardians lore we have seen, on the scale of our own engagements with the Thargoids?

We have used weapons of mass destruction against the Thargoids twice, once successfully. For the last few decades in particular we have expanded our territory aggressively and into regions the Thargoids have claimed (Pleiades, Witch Head, Coal Sack, California Nebula), whereas the Guardians have no sites in these areas (save for two battlegrounds around Barnard's Loop). The more distant Guardians sites post-date their conflict with the Thargoids, from the Guardians lore, and are in regions where no Thargoids or Barnacles have been reported. So I can understand the Thargoids considering us an existential threat and sending fleets into the Bubble, whilst trying to avoid antagonising us or drawing our attention to areas behind the lines.

The Guardians' conflict with the Thargoids was a defensive one (the Thargoids may have perceived their territory as being threatened but the Guardians had no choice about where they arose). They were protecting themselves. Humanity's conflicts with the Thargoids have both been offensive - it is the Thargoids who have been protecting themselves.

So I don't understand why the Thargoids would have a stronger response to the use of Guardians technology than to our own (although even the non-Guardians AX weapons supposedly use Guardians materials). Unless: the Thargoids think that the Guardians AI constructs are still around and are mistaking our actions and technology for a Guardians AI deciding that they need to be wiped out as well. Or maybe they perceive us as agents (whether aware of it or not) of a Guardians AI. Perhaps they have had hostile encounters with Guardians AI in the million+ years since they were created and we have not found the archaeological evidence yet.

I feel that we need to better understand the relationship between the Thargoids and the Guardians, else destroying or disabling a Titan is likely to escalate the conflict further. It might even antagonise the Guardians AI, if they really are still around...

For what it's worth, the Guardian logs actually don't go into enough detail to say if their conflict was a purely defensive one. Like seriously, it's something like three sentences of vagueness. It is described as in "Guardian space" but has also been compared, sometimes in the same sentence, to the events in "human space" - which at the time, was the Pleiades. The details of both sides actions in the conflict are also glossed over, not to mention what was even said in the talks...

Regardless, my guess is just that they still destroy Guardian tech because they know it can be weaponised against them. Human tech can as well, but I guess that's one step too far, like the Guardian tech contains some special kryptonite stuff whereas destroying human tech would be like destroying anything containing metal because we could make a knife out of it? I dunno, thats just the vibes I get. Or they think the Guardian tech is dangerous to EVERYONE, regardless of our relationship with the goids...the Guardians did wipe themselves out, after all.

 

[Phill P]

For what it's worth, the Guardian logs actually don't go into enough detail...

Regardless, my guess is just that they still destroy Guardian tech because they know it can be weaponised against them.

A reason is given for this, vague as the rest of it but it does exist.

From the Guardians Codex;

4/28 : Thargoid Log – The War Machine
The data in this log details the methods used by the Guardians against the Thargoids. At first they deployed ground troops, but when this proved ineffective they started to use drones – autonomous machines that felt no fear, fatigue or uncertainty. These war machines became highly sophisticated in a relatively short amount of time, and were soon able to identify and target anything that utilised Thargoid engineering.

Even more remarkably, Thargoid bio-mechanical technology was engineered to recognise anything of Guardian origin. That explains why, millions of years after the conflict, Thargoids devices still react aggressively to the presence of Guardian technology.

Looks like once they encounter a threat they never forget it, the details stay forever in their databanks and programmed into their ships.

 

[Rainbro]

A reason is given for this, vague as the rest of it but it does exist.

From the Guardians Codex;


Looks like once they encounter a threat they never forget it, the details stay forever in their databanks and programmed into their ships.

I think the question is more on the "why" they react so aggressively. That explains how they recognise it, but they can also recognise our stuff and don't freak out about it.

 

[Phill P]

I think the question is more on the "why" they react so aggressively. That explains how they recognise it, but they can also recognise our stuff and don't freak out about it.

For sure. I was just saying you don't have to completely guess, we do at least have a starting point. Although if it was us, then people using weapons on us that we thought we had seen the back of millennia ago could be seen as somewhat irritating, as well as possibly causing nagging doubts about whether the Guardians are really gone.

Perhaps it plays on their hive mind a bit.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

The Maelstroms are each likely to be a Hive of their own, and there doesn't seem to be any cooperation between them from what I've heard and seen, other than when they invaded near-simultaneously.

It's very tricky to say on that basis.

- they did invade near simultaneously, and furthermore picked locations forming (within the limits of AWs) a reasonably symmetric grid on the edge of the bubble. Most of them headed very approximately for the "near" side of the bubble from their point of view, but Raijin took quite a detour to get to where it currently is. Vague as it is, Seo Jin-ae sensed that they had a plan and has not reported any sense that they have different plans.

- since arrival all eight have followed (in so far as possible given different levels of local human resistance and other factors) basically the same plan, including changes to strategy.

- they've not really had much in the way of opportunity to collaborate visibly - their attacks move in 10 LY steps and were for a long time substantially contained even within that: we simply don't know what would happen if two Titan's control spheres "merged", while smaller transfers of reinforcements between them [1] would be undetectable with the tools we have available

Regardless of the precise units involved - a single Hive, or a coalition of many Hives - they certainly seem to be working together; though to what precise end remains as opaque as ever.

[1] Further loose evidence for this: despite the apparent importance of the Spire sites and their theorised purpose as infrastructure to supply materials important to the Titan or the war effort, there doesn't appear to be any particular difference in Maelstrom power based on its number of remaining active Spires. Sharing of resources between the Titans would certainly explain that. It may also provide an explanation for a Titan's "emergency alert" mechanism if it runs out of/low on Control systems.

 

[Phill P]

It's very tricky to say on that basis.

- they did invade near simultaneously, and furthermore picked locations forming (within the limits of AWs) a reasonably symmetric grid on the edge of the bubble. Most of them headed very approximately for the "near" side of the bubble from their point of view, but Raijin took quite a detour to get to where it currently is. Vague as it is, Seo Jin-ae sensed that they had a plan and has not reported any sense that they have different plans.

- since arrival all eight have followed (in so far as possible given different levels of local human resistance and other factors) basically the same plan, including changes to strategy.

Indeed. Beyond the first and seemingly coordinated arrival (*) and placement of them we haven't seen much we can measure so we can say yes, this is happening because of X. That they all display and use the same mechanics is neither here or there to me, it's expecting them to do otherwise for no good reason that would be strange.

(*) - Just because we don't understand the details of it doesn't mean it wasn't coordinated, etc.

- they've not really had much in the way of opportunity to collaborate visibly - their attacks move in 10 LY steps and were for a long time substantially contained even within that: we simply don't know what would happen if two Titan's control spheres "merged", while smaller transfers of reinforcements between them [1] would be undetectable with the tools we have available

Regardless of the precise units involved - a single Hive, or a coalition of many Hives - they certainly seem to be working together; though to what precise end remains as opaque as ever.

I think the fact they are working together is beyond question really, whether we can see or deduce all the ways they are doing so or not. What would be interesting to know is if each Titan has its own objective beyond that. I believe there have been hints they do, but of course we have no way of seeing what they might be at this point.

[1] Further loose evidence for this: despite the apparent importance of the Spire sites and their theorised purpose as infrastructure to supply materials important to the Titan or the war effort, there doesn't appear to be any particular difference in Maelstrom power based on its number of remaining active Spires. Sharing of resources between the Titans would certainly explain that.

Or it could simply be that the number of Spire Sites is not a measure of a Titan's power in any way, and to suppose so is the false assumption.

It may also provide an explanation for a Titan's "emergency alert" mechanism if it runs out of/low on Control systems.

Or the Titan could simply have reserved some resources to do that in case of an emergency, as any sensible being would, especially one in charge of troop deployment, and there's nothing more to it than that.

That's the problem really. For every convoluted explanation there's also either a simple one or simply no need to get complicated over a premise that hasn't shown itself to be indispensable to logic in the first place.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

That's the problem really. For every convoluted explanation there's also either a simple one or simply no need to get complicated over a premise that hasn't shown itself to be indispensable to logic in the first place.

Agreed.

The Spires must surely be useful for something (in fiction if not in-game) in that otherwise their only purpose seems to be to make them defensively weaker than they otherwise might be, but there's certainly no evidence of an in-game effect from them which benefits the Thargoids.

 

[Phill P]

Agreed.

The Spires must surely be useful for something (in fiction if not in-game) in that otherwise their only purpose seems to be to make them defensively weaker than they otherwise might be, but there's certainly no evidence of an in-game effect from them which benefits the Thargoids.

It's like the counterstrike systems. In theory they are supposed to represent some kind of frontline - they were originally called frontline systems - and therefore one would expect them to be at the spearhead of any expansion and taking them out to affect expansion more than, say, the average Control. Yet in practice they both do the same thing, either cause an Alert or not, they take the same amount of work to clear as any other Control at equal distance to the Titan and although they were supposed to be distinguished by having AX CZs in them, some of them did not while some ordinary Controls did.

Apart from being cleared by Titan rescues, if that still works, what do they actually do that distinguishes them from a Control to deserve this special label, which doesn't even appear to describe their purpose (since any Control that causes an Alert represents expansion)?

 

[Shurimal]

Regardless, my guess is just that they still destroy Guardian tech because they know it can be weaponised against them. Human tech can as well, but I guess that's one step too far, like the Guardian tech contains some special kryptonite stuff whereas destroying human tech would be like destroying anything containing metal

Guardian stuff is nanotech-based. Nanobots are vulnerable to heat, it's their biggest shortcoming. Heat a nanobot up just a bit and it becomes "denatured", all its machinery made of intricately arranged single atoms becoming malformed the same way proteins malform and become non-functional due to heat.

That's my guess what the thargoid anti-guardian field is, some carefully tuned EM that heats up Guardian nanobots like a microwave oven boils water. Human tech, being quite crude and robust, is resilient to it and it's much easier to just throw caustics at our hulls than to try and develop some sort of EM weapon to destroy ships that survive diving into neutron star jet cones.

I think the question is more on the "why" they react so aggressively. That explains how they recognise it, but they can also recognise our stuff and don't freak out about it.

When a butterfly flies into your room you probably catch it gently to release outside. When a mosquito flies into your room you probably terminate it with extreme prejudice. Recognition is the prerequisite for taking appropriate action, you don't react the same way to every event.

 

[Rainbro]

When a butterfly flies into your room you probably catch it gently to release outside. When a mosquito flies into your room you probably terminate it with extreme prejudice. Recognition is the prerequisite for taking appropriate action, you don't react the same way to every event.

Right, I just think we should probably qualify as mosquitos post-Proteus given that was enough to deploy Titans in the bubble.

 

[Shurimal]

Right, I just think we should probably qualify as mosquitos post-Proteus given that was enough to deploy Titans in the bubble.

Worse, we're like a crossbreed between locusts and killer hornets. We swarm in, devour all resources available, attack everything in sight that's not part of the hive, then move on to the next place. And to top it off, we're smart enough to evade and counter the megatons of DDT dropped on us.

 

[Navigare Necesse Est]

But they do genetically experiment on humans, no?

 

[Groman]

That's a good point. Since I only recently started reading GalNet and it seems the Thargoid abductees only recently returned (November/December 3309?), there is no clear evidence of what they do to humans once captured.

It would be only fair that they study our composition and find something we are vulnerable to.

I was also reading the ED timeline recently and stumbled upon the "Martian Relic". Anyone has any source material claiming it could be of Thargoid origin?
Because if that's true and they seeded the Sol system, that's troubling news.

 

[Kira Goto]

I was also reading the ED timeline recently and stumbled upon the "Martian Relic". Anyone has any source material claiming it could be of Thargoid origin?

I have more of a theory it might be a Guardian relic, but that requires some tinfoil in relation to the terraforming of Mars working not too long after said relic was found(and, to me, its size indicates a data drive of some sort).

If any material exists outside the game to hint at another origin… I don’t know of it.

 

[Groman]

Right, I remember reading somewhere they developed in the same "area" as humanity, good point.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

The argument against it having a Guardian or Thargoid origin is that it has presumably been extensively studied since its discovery, and if there was any obvious commonality with either's technology someone might have mentioned it by now. (Guardian AI tech is perhaps possible, since they've had plenty of time to redevelop their technology away from whatever they inherited from the Guardians)

 

[Kira Goto]

Guardian AI tech is perhaps possible, since they've had plenty of time to redevelop their technology away from whatever they inherited from the Guardians)

Suppose it’s entirely possible for them to have left such a thing behind, but it’d need to have been done on purpose, I think. Their interest in another developing species may have been justified given their creators(and if they did observe us, we’re lucky they didn’t just decide to nip things in the bud - I doubt we’d have been particularly impressive during the cave man era).

And speaking of Constructs, I do get a feeling that, maybe, that still has something to do with why the Thargoids are actually around. Partly because of Nemesis, but I have a feeling Frontier provided us with a fairly solid hint toward that in this GalNet article…

https://www.elitedangerous.com/news/galnet/seo-jin-ae-departs-utopia-silence

“A far more significant message that I would like to share concerns the increasing likelihood of humanity’s extinction. I speak not of the Thargoid war, but the ceaseless rivalries wrought by our innate tribalism. Now that our communities have become interstellar superpowers, this flaw in our nature could lead to the collapse of civilisation amid fire and ruin.”

“In the past, I have urged leaders to abandon militaristic posturing in favour of diplomacy. We must focus on what draws us together rather than our differences. Utopia will continue to serve as an exemplar of this philosophy, which may one day steer us toward a more holistic path.”

Now, you might say I’ve just got my tinfoil hat on, but I really doubt Pranav would just have chosen that very specific moment after discussing Nemesis with Seo to issue a call for unity, for no other reason than that he was making a public statement already. I doubt that she’s just sulking about it (again).

Why, well, we should all know why the Constructs wiped out the Guardians. And I really don’t think Pranav is worried about a superpower war causing societal collapse, let alone human extinction. He can say it’s not about the Thargoid war, but in a roundabout way… it might be.

How’s it tie into this topic? Well, to put it simply… actually, there is no real simple way to say it. But we maybe want the Thargoids on our side for this one. And maybe their interest in the Bubble was not so much in building a shield from us at its edge, as something worse coming along. And we might just be facilitating it through the creation of shielding from the Guardian disruption field.

(As well as disrupting this, kind of tinfoil-y, plan of the Thargoids by messing with the Titans. If only they’d be in a situation where they’d be willing to tell us …)

 

[Phill P]

But they do genetically experiment on humans, no?

There's no evidence that they do. No mention of any genetic tampering, implants, drugs or even surgery on the people rescued either. On the contrary they have been described as being physically fine.

Which is odd in itself. We're told billions have been abducted. How likely is it that out of all those abductees there wasn't a single broken bone, burn or other injury?

Scythes hang around Damaged Stations like vultures waiting for us to pick up critically wounded. Yet when we rescue them from the Titans they are all physically healthy.

So maybe the question shouldn't be "are they experimenting on them?" but "why are they healing them and not appearing to do anything else to them at all?"

I have more of a theory it might be a Guardian relic, but that requires some tinfoil in relation to the terraforming of Mars working not too long after said relic was found(and, to me, its size indicates a data drive of some sort).

If any material exists outside the game to hint at another origin… I don’t know of it.

IIRC the Martian relics, like the human AIs that have supposedly gone rogue and are still out there somewhere, are bits of old story that never got carried on. Pretty sure Drew mentions them as discontinued narratives in one of his lore videos.

Which doesn't exclude that at some point they could be retconned but as with all these things it works both ways - while there may be no reason to rule it out that also means there's no reason to rule it in either, or even to think it has anything to do with things at all.

Now, you might say I’ve just got my tinfoil hat on

You say that like it's a bad thing

Nothing we can do at the moment except speculate.

But we maybe want the Thargoids on our side for this one. And maybe their interest in the Bubble was not so much in building a shield from us at its edge, as something worse coming along.

Such as the return of the Guardian AIs who have now had a million years to learn all about us and the Thargoids with the speed, perfect memory and recall facilities of a supercomputer? With the megalomaniac muppet Salvation as one of them and armed with weapons neither us nor the Thargoids have a counter to?

It's crossed a few minds, yes.

 

[Kayvan]

Maybe they recycle all the wounded captives and only store the pristine ones. After all, how many have been rescued from the titans? Couple ten thousand? Out of a billion that are MIA?

 

[Phill P]

Maybe they recycle all the wounded captives and only store the pristine ones. After all, how many have been rescued from the titans? Couple ten thousand? Out of a billion that are MIA?

Could be but we know of no others except for the ones stored in the Titans. And that doesn't explain for me why the Scythes hang around the stations where people are most badly wounded. I don't read too much into the literal number of rescues since rescuing billions was never going to actually happen in reality. What we rescue is merely symbolic of the effort to get them back, story wise.