They aren't here to kill us (an overly-long analysis of Thargoid behaviour)

[Rainbro]

Well machines can be biological in nature, my point was that they weren't sentient. That explains why they act like you described, it's just part of their programming to respond to different situations.

Plenty of lore that says they're sentient. It's difficult to get a picture of feelings, though, so we're back to looking for evidence of or wondering why there would be a secret conspiracy to label the Thargoids as sentient or alive when they weren't.

 

[Rainbro]

I intend to do a follow-up to this when the details around recent events are more clear. I still stand by my analysis- fundamentally, recent events are little different to the previous Thargoid incursions, and they come after a genocide attempt, five years into a war. It should still hold true for past events, and I hope it will for the future eventually.

Up until now, whatever the reasons for conflict, the Thargoids repeatedly took actions to minimize the death toll. I hope the Proteus Wave has not changed their minds permanently. If only because I know that some people are going to point at this and act as though it justifies the entire war (hello, Hudson).

 

[zimms]

Mod, pls change title to "They weren't here to kill us"

 

[Louis Calvert]

I intend to do a follow-up to this when the details around recent events are more clear. I still stand by my analysis- fundamentally, recent events are little different to the previous Thargoid incursions, and they come after a genocide attempt, five years into a war. It should still hold true for past events, and I hope it will for the future eventually.

Up until now, whatever the reasons for conflict, the Thargoids repeatedly took actions to minimize the death toll. I hope the Proteus Wave has not changed their minds permanently. If only because I know that some people are going to point at this and act as though it justifies the entire war (hello, Hudson).

Did you hear the rumour that Thargoid Sensors were packed aboard the Kingfisher?

 

[Rainbro]

Did you hear the rumour that Thargoid Sensors were packed aboard the Kingfisher?

I did. It's been well-established as a plot point in the past, through hyperdictions and the megaships previously attacked in the Pleiades. I am unsure of its possible significance on the Kingfisher, since Taranis was clearly already kinda angry.

1) It's sabotage and the Kingfisher was intended to anger Taranis. (It apparently felt the need to leave a force to patrol the system in a manner akin to the system where a genocide attempt occured, so mayyybe? Bit of a stretch)

2) It's sabotage and Taranis was already angery, but someone wanted to make 100% sure that Taranis didn't just ignore them/not know they were there and keep going. (This fits as a baseline explanation even if this wasn't intended, as it's plausible but doesn't necessarily have to have any actual importance). This would have been easy to distinguish had there been GalNets with Azimuth or others trying to take advantage of the Kingfisher's fate politically, but there are bigger fish to fry now so probably not.

3) It's not sabotage, Taranis was already ed off, and Frontier just reused a normal template for damaged megaship cargo. Can be explained in-universe as per 2) if we want.

Whichever way it goes, it's probably not that important. We have more general evidence of sabotage way earlier in the war, which is more significant.

 

[Lord Harlock]

Now is clearly the optimal time to release this, a few days ahead of the stargoids. But I believe that based on previous Thargoid behaviour, the stargoids aren't coming to declare total war on humanity. People are gonna die, make no mistake of that, but it won't be because the Thargoids want to wipe us out.

The Second Thargoid War has been going on for five years now, and its been nearly six since the Thargoids returned. It's easy to lose track of what has happened in the face of the current situation, so this post is an attempt to consolidate my theories on why the Thargoids are here, based on their behaviour. We don't have formal communication...but we don't need it. Actions speak louder than words, and we have five years of data to work with.

There are two main categories of behaviours to look at: how the Thargoids act towards individuals, and how they act towards us as a species. Hyperdictions provide insight for the first, and the history of the Second Thargoid War provides the second. To summarize what I believe the following shows: the Thargoids are not here to kill us. But they will act in self-defence if pushed, of their territory, their technology, and themselves.

This will primarily focus on the Second Thargoid War, as it's what we have the most reliable data for. But I'd also like to open with this quote from the previous game, Frontier First Encounters. We cannot assume that the events of prior games are canon, but the circumstances behind this quote are also referenced in Elite: Dangerous, as a tourist beacon. Details may have changed, but there may be shared themes between the stories Frontier write. So here's part of the journal that Dr Innitui was assassinated over. It summarizes this entire post.

But anyway, one war at a time.

Hyperdiction behaviour

A wide range of Thargoid behaviour is displayed during hyperdictions, and can provide insight into Thargoid motivations. Hyperdictions have further significance in that they marked the return of the Thargoids in 3303, effectively being equivalent to "first contact" within the context of the Second Thargoid War. These behaviours are also easily documented and verified by independent commanders, making them excellent primary evidence. Much of this behaviour could later be seen outside of hyperdictions, but the hyperdictions are the primary example and also where the Thargoids go to the pilots, rather than the other way around, making them slightly more useful.

The first hyperdictions, as well as the bulk of them since, occur after a pilot had interacted with a Thargoid Sensor. This Sensor scans the ship, after which the pilot may be hyperdicted while travelling through regions of Thargoid territory such as the Pleiades Nebula. One or multiple Thargoid Interceptors will be present, and will deploy a shutdown wave to disable most of the ship's systems. A Thargoid will then approach and scan the vessel. Based on the cargo the human ship is carrying, one of the following behaviours will occur after the scan:

1. Meta-Alloys are present. If the Meta-Alloys are not jettisonned after a short time, the Thargoid will turn red and deploy Thargons, but will not become hostile. If they are jettisonned, the Thargoid will scoop them up and leave, after calling in more Thargoids for large quantities if necessary.
2. Thargoid technology is present. If it is not jettisonned after a short time, the Thargoid will attack. Otherwise, the Thargoid will scoop them up and leave.
3. Guardian technology is present. The Thargoid will immediately attack.
4. None of the above. The Thargoid will leave.

Seperately from the scan, an attack will also occur if the Thargoid is fired upon or if a collision occurs. The reasons for this are likely self-explanatory.

Based on the above, it can be inferred that the primary purpose of these hyperdictions is to scan the cargo of vessels travelling through Thargoid territory. This runs contrary to the somewhat commonly held theory that Thargoid behaviours are marked with unrelenting aggression. Instead, despite the Thargoid vessels having the human ship at a severe disadvantage, the act of scanning the cargo only enables them to spare ships. A more warlike race would be perfectly positioned to attack the disabled ship immediately, and then collect any cargo of interest from the wreckage; the Thargoids are demonstratably capable of this, but choose not to. Instead, scanning the cargo allows the Thargoids to give a grace period where cargo belonging to them can be returned and to spare uninvolved ships. Hostilities only occur if Thargoid cargo is not returned, in self-defence, or if the ship is carrying Guardian technology which can be used to develop weaponry effective against the Thargoids. And in the case of Meta-Alloys, hostilities will not even occur at all, despite the Thargoid's known opposition to humanity's occupation of the barnacles that produce them.

This behaviour has continued largely unchanged even as the Second Thargoid War was declared, and then repeatedly escalated. The major exception to this has occured recently in the vicinity of HIP 22460, which will be addressed later - but in short, even now normal hyperdiction behaviour continues to occur, so I do not believe the events of HIP 22460 have caused a significant shift in how the Thargoids view humanity as a whole.

In essence, it appears that while the Thargoids are not averse to attacking if necessary to protect themselves or retrieve their cargo, they also go out of their way to enable a peaceful resolution. Their only red-line appears to be the collection of Guardian technology, but given their history and recent events in HIP 22460, it could be said that there are valid reasons for this.

Thargoid attacks prior and during the Second Thargoid War

While an understanding of how the Thargoids treat individuals in hyperdictions is useful for gaining insight of their motives, events did not stop with the hyperdictions. War was declared against the Thargoids regardless, leading to numerous escalations and hostilities. Examining the context and method of significant Thargoid attacks that have occured in the Second Thargoid War is also essential towards understanding how they view us as a species. Specifically, the major question to be answered is if their apparent behaviour in hyperdictions (where they are capable of killing, but will avoid it in most cases) also extends towards us as a warring species. Three main time periods with notable conflicts will be examined for this:

1) January - September 3303: The Return -> Declaration of War

The Thargoids returned in January 3303, hyperdicting pilots as described above. For the first five months, the number of ships destroyed by Thargoids was zero - again, despite their now clear ability to do so. What changed?

The first conflict came in May 3303, involving Federal military vessels. [https://community.elitedangerous.com/galnet/uid/591eba92943cd633575c5666]
At the time, both the Federation and Empire had been fighting to take control of the Pleiades for nearly a year, and Federal military convoys had also been covertly harvesting Thargoid technology from the region. As such, it seems likely that this attack occured based on typical hyperdiction behaviour - the Federal convoys were interdicted, scanned, and did not return the cargo. It is also worth noting the apparent five month grace period that the Federation had to respond to the Thargoid's return, and their obvious interest in the region. The Federation continued anyway. After those five months, perhaps the Thargoids decided to make their point more clearly.

The next significant conflict was the destruction of a Federal Farragut in September 3303. Details as to what this Farragut was doing in Thargoid territory are of course absent, but given previous events and that it was accompanied by a convoy, it is likely that this occured in the same way as the previous conflict. This led to the Federation declaring war on the Thargoids, and they were followed by the other two superpowers, resulting in Aegis becoming a military organisation.

Until this point, the only notable conflicts had involved Federal vessels. After the declaration of war, Imperial military vessels were also targeted, along with civilian vessels. The wreckage of these ships would often have Unknown Artifacts floating nearby - again, indicating that these attacks occured due to typical hyperdiction behaviour. While this GalNet rules out weapon fire as a cause, it could be speculated that Aegis's formation and sale of AX weaponry to the superpowers and independent pilots may have played a part in the Thargoid's focus widening from just the Federation.

In conclusion, hostilities in this time period appear to result from the Federation's gathering of Thargoid technology - consistent with hyperdiction behaviour. Pure aggression does not seem to be present, nor any reason to suggest why this aggression would be so targeted at just the Federation if it were so. As a result of this, war was declared on the Thargoids, and the gathering of Thargoid technology and Meta-Alloys continued, now under the collective watch of Aegis.

2) December 3303 and onwards: Station attacks

After the declaration of war, things naturally escalated. From this point onwards, much of the conflict in the Pleiades could simply be attributed to self-defence by the Thargoids: Aegis had launched a major expansion into the region, as well as launched multiple massacre operations against the Thargoids such as Operation Andronicus, aiming to kill as many Thargoids as possible within the Pleiades.

However, I don't think it's that simple. Whatever the cause of war, once it had started pure self-defence could have driven the Thargoids to go all-out in response, abandoning their previous behaviours in favour of counterparts to Operation Andronicus, opening fire on any human in sight. This did not occur.

Instead, the next major development in the war from the Thargoid end was the first station attacks, about a month after Andronicus. Given their portrayal, this might not sound so different to the above, but there are several key details that tend to get missed out.

Firstly, the Thargoids chose to disable the stations, rather than destroy. As a result, the death toll was remarkably low when compared with the population of the systems attacked. Despite the stations being helpless against the shutdown fields, the Thargoids chose to disable the main reactor rather than destroy the entire station - and then they left, apparently of their own accord. "One eyewitness said, “It’s like they wanted to cripple us rather than destroy us outright.” This mirrors the hyperdiction behaviour, where they choose to spare uninvolved ships even when helpless. Of course these encounters were not entirely benign either, which brings me onto the second point.

These first station attacks were exclusively against Aegis stations. Stations that were in Thargoid territory, full of stolen Thargoid technology, and being used to support acts like Operation Andronicus. The act of attacking these stations then also serves two other motives: to retrieve the technology, and to prevent further attacks on Thargoids. Again, if self-defence or even bloodlust were the Thargoids only motivations, they would have been better served to destroy these stations outright. They chose not to. It may be that the Thargoids believed that killing everyone on board would guarantee further escalation, whereas simply disabling the stations would send a stronger message - to show what they are capable of, and to demonstrate that they were willing to show restraint. Unfortunately, the message was not heeded, with these elements being disregarded by the powers.

These attacks continued in this way for several more months, confined to Aegis stations in the Pleiades Nebula. In February 3304, these attacks began to be accompanied by the arrival of Thargoid Scouts. The Scouts displayed notably different behaviour in that they were hostile on sight. However, this did not mark a change in behaviour of all Thargoids, with hyperdictions and the method of station disabling remaining unchanged. Considering this along with the fact that Scouts were only deployed after months of war, I believe that the Scouts are single-purpose vessels, only being of use in warzones, to attack. As such, their behaviour when deployed was entirely predictable, but their selective deployment and the lack of this behaviour in other situations meant this did not indicate that the Thargoids were now displaying total hostility towards humans.

In the same way as in the pre-war period with the Federal convoys, once the Thargoids had spent several months determining that their message was not being heeded, they transmitted it more strongly. Aegis continued to operate in the Pleiades, harvesting technology and launching further attacks on the Thargoids, so the Thargoids stepped up their response. It is a notable exception, but the overall behaviour remained unchanged.

At the same time as the arrival of the Scouts, the attacks also stopped being restricted to just Aegis stations, also moving out of the Pleiades and into the bubble itself. This marked a notable change as defence of the Pleiades could no longer be considered a motive - however, there is evidence to suggest that these attacks were still intended to retrieve stolen Thargoid technology.

By this stage in the war, Thargoid technology was being more widely distributed throughout the bubble. Convoys of ships were being sent to stations that would later be targeted for Thargoid attack; these convoys appeared to be covertly transporting Thargoid technology. Furthermore, mysterious transmitters appeared outside stations at the same time as they were detected by the Thargoids, suggesting that a group of humans - possibly the same as the one sending the convoys - was deliberately highlighting these stations to the Thargoids, luring them away from the Pleiades in their pursuit of Thargoid technology. As usual, killcounts remained low as the station itself was only disabled. You can ignore the tinfoil if you like. The main point is that despite occuring in the bubble, with the presence of Scouts, these attacks do not appear to be part of an aggressive invasion. They were driven by the same principles as hyperdiction behaviour, namely the retrieval of Thargoid technology.

In conclusion, the primary motive behind the station attacks in general seems to be retrieval of Thargoid technology. In the Pleiades, Aegis labs hosted large amounts of it, known to be transmitting back to the Thargoids. They also hosted anti-Thargoid operations, providing another motive in self-defence. As for the bubble attacks, Thargoid technology again appeared to be a motive, and in all cases the Thargoids deliberately chose to minimize the death toll by disabling the station, rather than destroying.

Finally, allow me to make this entire section completely redundant, because the core of this was stated verbatim on GalNet when the Gnosis was attacked (again, after the placement of a transmitter): "The aliens were more interested in scooping up the meta-alloys than attacking us".

3) August 3308 and onwards: The Battle and Aftermath of HIP 22460

This is a bit of a timeskip. The above events continued on and off for the next few years without many major escalations. Aegis and others invaded more bits of Thargoid territory, the Thargoids counterattacked, the powers freaked out, nothing new here. On one hand, this could indicate that the Thargoids were reluctant to escalate further even as humanity lay claim to more and more barnacles, even destroying the ones in the Pleiades. On the other, it could indicate that Frontier was busy elsewhere with development issues (hi, Odyssey).

The next major escalation occured in HIP 22460. This is much more recent, so to summarize, Salvation's plan to lure and then destroy large numbers of Thargoids in the HIP 22460 system failed. The Proteus Wave was instead used to disable all human ships in the system, which made up the combined militaries of all three superpowers. The Thargoids then attacked, wiping them out.

Helpfully, GalNet has been much more useful in calling out the hypocrisy of naming this "the latest example of unrelenting hostility", especially coming from the person who declared war on the Thargoids. As noted above, the Thargoids tend to spare ships that are uninvolved - this does not apply to those that attack them, which is evidently the case when the combined militaries of three superpowers embark on a mission to detonate a Guardian-based superweapon in Thargoid territory. Since this event, Thargoids are universally hostile in the vicinity of HIP 22460. Like with the Scouts, this is not a universal change in behaviour. The connection to HIP 22460 indicates that this is a direct consequence of the attempted xenocide, and that the Thargoids are unwilling to take chances when demonstrating this message to us.

Elsewhere, however, station attacks have ceased entirely. With the downfall of both Aegis and Salvation, it may be that the Thargoids no longer have a reason to attack stations, without anyone filling them with Thargoid tech or gathering Guardian tech in the system. While the Thargoids continue to sporadically appear in the bubble, evidence suggests that these are not part of an attack. Conflict has broken out anyway in these systems, but context on GalNet suggests that this is because of human fleets being deployed to attack the Thargoids, rather than the Thargoids opening fire first - "It’s not an attack as much as a presence". The true meaning of this behaviour may only become apparent when the "stargoids" arrive, but I believe that these "attacks" are an attempt to discern if humanity still wants to continue the war after the demonstration in HIP 22460: where the Thargoids deliberately allowed humanity to assemble their best and most powerful weaponry, only to demonstrate how little of a threat it posed to them.

Conclusion

There's another GalNet article I haven't mentioned yet, regarding the Guardian logs. These come up a lot, but this entire post is actually just a long-winded attempt to compile supporting evidence for what has already been largely stated on GalNet. The Thargoids's motivations are known, and they're not here to kill us. In the words of Aegis's head of research, Professor Tesreau:

Despite the lack of formal communication, we figured out what the Thargoids wanted. And the powers ignored it. Only months later, Aegis and the powers invaded Witch Head, and it didn't stop there. That is why the Thargoids are here, humanity's unrelenting greed for Thargoid technology and territory.

Maybe the stargoids are a sign that the Thargoids have had enough, and are no longer interested in restraint. But even after HIP 22460, that hasn't happened yet, and I think it's more likely that the actions of these entities will be consistent with prior Thargoid behaviour and motives.

I might try and streamline this post later on (or rewrite the entire thing when the stargoids arrive), but jeez, I just wanted to write this all down to save me typing it up again for the 70th time. Good luck if you made it this far.

TL;DR: Stop helping those invading Thargoid territory. And I wouldn't have had to make this post if GalNet was better at showing historical articles.This is very i

Now is clearly the optimal time to release this, a few days ahead of the stargoids. But I believe that based on previous Thargoid behaviour, the stargoids aren't coming to declare total war on humanity. People are gonna die, make no mistake of that, but it won't be because the Thargoids want to wipe us out.

The Second Thargoid War has been going on for five years now, and its been nearly six since the Thargoids returned. It's easy to lose track of what has happened in the face of the current situation, so this post is an attempt to consolidate my theories on why the Thargoids are here, based on their behaviour. We don't have formal communication...but we don't need it. Actions speak louder than words, and we have five years of data to work with.

There are two main categories of behaviours to look at: how the Thargoids act towards individuals, and how they act towards us as a species. Hyperdictions provide insight for the first, and the history of the Second Thargoid War provides the second. To summarize what I believe the following shows: the Thargoids are not here to kill us. But they will act in self-defence if pushed, of their territory, their technology, and themselves.

This will primarily focus on the Second Thargoid War, as it's what we have the most reliable data for. But I'd also like to open with this quote from the previous game, Frontier First Encounters. We cannot assume that the events of prior games are canon, but the circumstances behind this quote are also referenced in Elite: Dangerous, as a tourist beacon. Details may have changed, but there may be shared themes between the stories Frontier write. So here's part of the journal that Dr Innitui was assassinated over. It summarizes this entire post.

But anyway, one war at a time.

Hyperdiction behaviour

A wide range of Thargoid behaviour is displayed during hyperdictions, and can provide insight into Thargoid motivations. Hyperdictions have further significance in that they marked the return of the Thargoids in 3303, effectively being equivalent to "first contact" within the context of the Second Thargoid War. These behaviours are also easily documented and verified by independent commanders, making them excellent primary evidence. Much of this behaviour could later be seen outside of hyperdictions, but the hyperdictions are the primary example and also where the Thargoids go to the pilots, rather than the other way around, making them slightly more useful.

The first hyperdictions, as well as the bulk of them since, occur after a pilot had interacted with a Thargoid Sensor. This Sensor scans the ship, after which the pilot may be hyperdicted while travelling through regions of Thargoid territory such as the Pleiades Nebula. One or multiple Thargoid Interceptors will be present, and will deploy a shutdown wave to disable most of the ship's systems. A Thargoid will then approach and scan the vessel. Based on the cargo the human ship is carrying, one of the following behaviours will occur after the scan:

1. Meta-Alloys are present. If the Meta-Alloys are not jettisonned after a short time, the Thargoid will turn red and deploy Thargons, but will not become hostile. If they are jettisonned, the Thargoid will scoop them up and leave, after calling in more Thargoids for large quantities if necessary.
2. Thargoid technology is present. If it is not jettisonned after a short time, the Thargoid will attack. Otherwise, the Thargoid will scoop them up and leave.
3. Guardian technology is present. The Thargoid will immediately attack.
4. None of the above. The Thargoid will leave.

Seperately from the scan, an attack will also occur if the Thargoid is fired upon or if a collision occurs. The reasons for this are likely self-explanatory.

Based on the above, it can be inferred that the primary purpose of these hyperdictions is to scan the cargo of vessels travelling through Thargoid territory. This runs contrary to the somewhat commonly held theory that Thargoid behaviours are marked with unrelenting aggression. Instead, despite the Thargoid vessels having the human ship at a severe disadvantage, the act of scanning the cargo only enables them to spare ships. A more warlike race would be perfectly positioned to attack the disabled ship immediately, and then collect any cargo of interest from the wreckage; the Thargoids are demonstratably capable of this, but choose not to. Instead, scanning the cargo allows the Thargoids to give a grace period where cargo belonging to them can be returned and to spare uninvolved ships. Hostilities only occur if Thargoid cargo is not returned, in self-defence, or if the ship is carrying Guardian technology which can be used to develop weaponry effective against the Thargoids. And in the case of Meta-Alloys, hostilities will not even occur at all, despite the Thargoid's known opposition to humanity's occupation of the barnacles that produce them.

This behaviour has continued largely unchanged even as the Second Thargoid War was declared, and then repeatedly escalated. The major exception to this has occured recently in the vicinity of HIP 22460, which will be addressed later - but in short, even now normal hyperdiction behaviour continues to occur, so I do not believe the events of HIP 22460 have caused a significant shift in how the Thargoids view humanity as a whole.

In essence, it appears that while the Thargoids are not averse to attacking if necessary to protect themselves or retrieve their cargo, they also go out of their way to enable a peaceful resolution. Their only red-line appears to be the collection of Guardian technology, but given their history and recent events in HIP 22460, it could be said that there are valid reasons for this.

Thargoid attacks prior and during the Second Thargoid War

While an understanding of how the Thargoids treat individuals in hyperdictions is useful for gaining insight of their motives, events did not stop with the hyperdictions. War was declared against the Thargoids regardless, leading to numerous escalations and hostilities. Examining the context and method of significant Thargoid attacks that have occured in the Second Thargoid War is also essential towards understanding how they view us as a species. Specifically, the major question to be answered is if their apparent behaviour in hyperdictions (where they are capable of killing, but will avoid it in most cases) also extends towards us as a warring species. Three main time periods with notable conflicts will be examined for this:

1) January - September 3303: The Return -> Declaration of War

The Thargoids returned in January 3303, hyperdicting pilots as described above. For the first five months, the number of ships destroyed by Thargoids was zero - again, despite their now clear ability to do so. What changed?

The first conflict came in May 3303, involving Federal military vessels. [https://community.elitedangerous.com/galnet/uid/591eba92943cd633575c5666]
At the time, both the Federation and Empire had been fighting to take control of the Pleiades for nearly a year, and Federal military convoys had also been covertly harvesting Thargoid technology from the region. As such, it seems likely that this attack occured based on typical hyperdiction behaviour - the Federal convoys were interdicted, scanned, and did not return the cargo. It is also worth noting the apparent five month grace period that the Federation had to respond to the Thargoid's return, and their obvious interest in the region. The Federation continued anyway. After those five months, perhaps the Thargoids decided to make their point more clearly.

The next significant conflict was the destruction of a Federal Farragut in September 3303. Details as to what this Farragut was doing in Thargoid territory are of course absent, but given previous events and that it was accompanied by a convoy, it is likely that this occured in the same way as the previous conflict. This led to the Federation declaring war on the Thargoids, and they were followed by the other two superpowers, resulting in Aegis becoming a military organisation.

Until this point, the only notable conflicts had involved Federal vessels. After the declaration of war, Imperial military vessels were also targeted, along with civilian vessels. The wreckage of these ships would often have Unknown Artifacts floating nearby - again, indicating that these attacks occured due to typical hyperdiction behaviour. While this GalNet rules out weapon fire as a cause, it could be speculated that Aegis's formation and sale of AX weaponry to the superpowers and independent pilots may have played a part in the Thargoid's focus widening from just the Federation.

In conclusion, hostilities in this time period appear to result from the Federation's gathering of Thargoid technology - consistent with hyperdiction behaviour. Pure aggression does not seem to be present, nor any reason to suggest why this aggression would be so targeted at just the Federation if it were so. As a result of this, war was declared on the Thargoids, and the gathering of Thargoid technology and Meta-Alloys continued, now under the collective watch of Aegis.

2) December 3303 and onwards: Station attacks

After the declaration of war, things naturally escalated. From this point onwards, much of the conflict in the Pleiades could simply be attributed to self-defence by the Thargoids: Aegis had launched a major expansion into the region, as well as launched multiple massacre operations against the Thargoids such as Operation Andronicus, aiming to kill as many Thargoids as possible within the Pleiades.

However, I don't think it's that simple. Whatever the cause of war, once it had started pure self-defence could have driven the Thargoids to go all-out in response, abandoning their previous behaviours in favour of counterparts to Operation Andronicus, opening fire on any human in sight. This did not occur.

Instead, the next major development in the war from the Thargoid end was the first station attacks, about a month after Andronicus. Given their portrayal, this might not sound so different to the above, but there are several key details that tend to get missed out.

Firstly, the Thargoids chose to disable the stations, rather than destroy. As a result, the death toll was remarkably low when compared with the population of the systems attacked. Despite the stations being helpless against the shutdown fields, the Thargoids chose to disable the main reactor rather than destroy the entire station - and then they left, apparently of their own accord. "One eyewitness said, “It’s like they wanted to cripple us rather than destroy us outright.” This mirrors the hyperdiction behaviour, where they choose to spare uninvolved ships even when helpless. Of course these encounters were not entirely benign either, which brings me onto the second point.

These first station attacks were exclusively against Aegis stations. Stations that were in Thargoid territory, full of stolen Thargoid technology, and being used to support acts like Operation Andronicus. The act of attacking these stations then also serves two other motives: to retrieve the technology, and to prevent further attacks on Thargoids. Again, if self-defence or even bloodlust were the Thargoids only motivations, they would have been better served to destroy these stations outright. They chose not to. It may be that the Thargoids believed that killing everyone on board would guarantee further escalation, whereas simply disabling the stations would send a stronger message - to show what they are capable of, and to demonstrate that they were willing to show restraint. Unfortunately, the message was not heeded, with these elements being disregarded by the powers.

These attacks continued in this way for several more months, confined to Aegis stations in the Pleiades Nebula. In February 3304, these attacks began to be accompanied by the arrival of Thargoid Scouts. The Scouts displayed notably different behaviour in that they were hostile on sight. However, this did not mark a change in behaviour of all Thargoids, with hyperdictions and the method of station disabling remaining unchanged. Considering this along with the fact that Scouts were only deployed after months of war, I believe that the Scouts are single-purpose vessels, only being of use in warzones, to attack. As such, their behaviour when deployed was entirely predictable, but their selective deployment and the lack of this behaviour in other situations meant this did not indicate that the Thargoids were now displaying total hostility towards humans.

In the same way as in the pre-war period with the Federal convoys, once the Thargoids had spent several months determining that their message was not being heeded, they transmitted it more strongly. Aegis continued to operate in the Pleiades, harvesting technology and launching further attacks on the Thargoids, so the Thargoids stepped up their response. It is a notable exception, but the overall behaviour remained unchanged.

At the same time as the arrival of the Scouts, the attacks also stopped being restricted to just Aegis stations, also moving out of the Pleiades and into the bubble itself. This marked a notable change as defence of the Pleiades could no longer be considered a motive - however, there is evidence to suggest that these attacks were still intended to retrieve stolen Thargoid technology.

By this stage in the war, Thargoid technology was being more widely distributed throughout the bubble. Convoys of ships were being sent to stations that would later be targeted for Thargoid attack; these convoys appeared to be covertly transporting Thargoid technology. Furthermore, mysterious transmitters appeared outside stations at the same time as they were detected by the Thargoids, suggesting that a group of humans - possibly the same as the one sending the convoys - was deliberately highlighting these stations to the Thargoids, luring them away from the Pleiades in their pursuit of Thargoid technology. As usual, killcounts remained low as the station itself was only disabled. You can ignore the tinfoil if you like. The main point is that despite occuring in the bubble, with the presence of Scouts, these attacks do not appear to be part of an aggressive invasion. They were driven by the same principles as hyperdiction behaviour, namely the retrieval of Thargoid technology.

In conclusion, the primary motive behind the station attacks in general seems to be retrieval of Thargoid technology. In the Pleiades, Aegis labs hosted large amounts of it, known to be transmitting back to the Thargoids. They also hosted anti-Thargoid operations, providing another motive in self-defence. As for the bubble attacks, Thargoid technology again appeared to be a motive, and in all cases the Thargoids deliberately chose to minimize the death toll by disabling the station, rather than destroying.

Finally, allow me to make this entire section completely redundant, because the core of this was stated verbatim on GalNet when the Gnosis was attacked (again, after the placement of a transmitter): "The aliens were more interested in scooping up the meta-alloys than attacking us".

3) August 3308 and onwards: The Battle and Aftermath of HIP 22460

This is a bit of a timeskip. The above events continued on and off for the next few years without many major escalations. Aegis and others invaded more bits of Thargoid territory, the Thargoids counterattacked, the powers freaked out, nothing new here. On one hand, this could indicate that the Thargoids were reluctant to escalate further even as humanity lay claim to more and more barnacles, even destroying the ones in the Pleiades. On the other, it could indicate that Frontier was busy elsewhere with development issues (hi, Odyssey).

The next major escalation occured in HIP 22460. This is much more recent, so to summarize, Salvation's plan to lure and then destroy large numbers of Thargoids in the HIP 22460 system failed. The Proteus Wave was instead used to disable all human ships in the system, which made up the combined militaries of all three superpowers. The Thargoids then attacked, wiping them out.

Helpfully, GalNet has been much more useful in calling out the hypocrisy of naming this "the latest example of unrelenting hostility", especially coming from the person who declared war on the Thargoids. As noted above, the Thargoids tend to spare ships that are uninvolved - this does not apply to those that attack them, which is evidently the case when the combined militaries of three superpowers embark on a mission to detonate a Guardian-based superweapon in Thargoid territory. Since this event, Thargoids are universally hostile in the vicinity of HIP 22460. Like with the Scouts, this is not a universal change in behaviour. The connection to HIP 22460 indicates that this is a direct consequence of the attempted xenocide, and that the Thargoids are unwilling to take chances when demonstrating this message to us.

Elsewhere, however, station attacks have ceased entirely. With the downfall of both Aegis and Salvation, it may be that the Thargoids no longer have a reason to attack stations, without anyone filling them with Thargoid tech or gathering Guardian tech in the system. While the Thargoids continue to sporadically appear in the bubble, evidence suggests that these are not part of an attack. Conflict has broken out anyway in these systems, but context on GalNet suggests that this is because of human fleets being deployed to attack the Thargoids, rather than the Thargoids opening fire first - "It’s not an attack as much as a presence". The true meaning of this behaviour may only become apparent when the "stargoids" arrive, but I believe that these "attacks" are an attempt to discern if humanity still wants to continue the war after the demonstration in HIP 22460: where the Thargoids deliberately allowed humanity to assemble their best and most powerful weaponry, only to demonstrate how little of a threat it posed to them.

Conclusion

There's another GalNet article I haven't mentioned yet, regarding the Guardian logs. These come up a lot, but this entire post is actually just a long-winded attempt to compile supporting evidence for what has already been largely stated on GalNet. The Thargoids's motivations are known, and they're not here to kill us. In the words of Aegis's head of research, Professor Tesreau:

Despite the lack of formal communication, we figured out what the Thargoids wanted. And the powers ignored it. Only months later, Aegis and the powers invaded Witch Head, and it didn't stop there. That is why the Thargoids are here, humanity's unrelenting greed for Thargoid technology and territory.

Maybe the stargoids are a sign that the Thargoids have had enough, and are no longer interested in restraint. But even after HIP 22460, that hasn't happened yet, and I think it's more likely that the actions of these entities will be consistent with prior Thargoid behaviour and motives.

I might try and streamline this post later on (or rewrite the entire thing when the stargoids arrive), but jeez, I just wanted to write this all down to save me typing it up again for the 70th time. Good luck if you made it this far.

TL;DR: Stop helping those invading Thargoid territory. And I wouldn't have had to make this post if GalNet was better at showing historical articles.

I find this very interesting, and my experience today with the Thargoids in one of the contested systems made me think that you may be on to something.

I was initially poking around to see what I could do to assist in the war effort, seeing as I have no AX combat capable ships. My first two jumps into the system to look around resulted in hyperdictions. In those initial encounters, I immediately proceeded to boost away from the Thargoid ship without engaging them and jumped away.

I proceeded to outfit a python for speed, shields and as many passenger cabins as I could fit. My first two runs to a station to evacuate as many passengers as I could carry resulted in hyperdictions. As I prepared for a hyperdiction on my third run, I was able to jump into the system without being molested and successfully extracted passengers before I called it a night. Based on the conversations in this thread I plan on trying this again to see if I can get the same results.

 

[InertFurry]

I find this very interesting, and my experience today with the Thargoids in one of the contested systems made me think that you may be on to something.

I was initially poking around to see what I could do to assist in the war effort, seeing as I have no AX combat capable ships. My first two jumps into the system to look around resulted in hyperdictions. In those initial encounters, I immediately proceeded to boost away from the Thargoid ship without engaging them and jumped away.

I proceeded to outfit a python for speed, shields and as many passenger cabins as I could fit. My first two runs to a station to evacuate as many passengers as I could carry resulted in hyperdictions. As I prepared for a hyperdiction on my third run, I was able to jump into the system without being molested and successfully extracted passengers before I called it a night. Based on the conversations in this thread I plan on trying this again to see if I can get the same results.

I was doing something similar until I got shutdown field'd during the launch process and blown up with a full load of refugees on board.

 

[Groman]

I read all the posts here, thanks Rainbro for the great write-up with links to GalNet articles and thank you everyone for contributing.
For a new player like me, it made the lore more digestible.

While some time passed and I just started playing in December 3309, it seems the situation is still the same.
Humanity is still encroaching and harvesting Thargoid territory.

I'd be curious to hear from someone that has played for the last year, that would fill any gaps I have.

Based on my experience, hyperdiction behaviour is still the same as described by OP.
I was only shot on sight when entering Thargoid controlled systems (as described in the galaxy map) or contested with humanity.

Since I've read ED events are led by player actions, I could see how the war is escalating if people only see Thargoids as an enemy to destroy.
While I am not sure what is what you called stargoid (I stopped myself for spoilers), I've heard about the Maelstrom and Titans which to me again indicate Thargoids are trying to slowly ramp up their response when faced with humanity aggression/encroachment.

It will be interesting to see if this new January 3310 campaign about the needs of Guardian Relics for anti-titan research will succeed and if so what will be the outcome.

I really wonder how things would have evolved if player actions had been mostly pacifist towards Thargoids.
I can see the value from a gameplay side to antagonize an alien race so as to create a war effort and a refresh of the enemy (killing other humans might get boring I guess).

I can also see how FDev might have predicted player reaction since IRL, we still tend to attack each others when we feel threatened. I could even see the game as a reflection of what is happening in real life, humanity still has to work hard on managing its primary responses and think harder about the meaning of things.

Interesting stuff!

 

[Phill P]

While I am not sure what is what you called stargoid (I stopped myself for spoilers), I've heard about the Maelstrom and Titans

Stargoids was the name given to the Titans when they were still on their way here, before we knew what they were.

 

[Darrack]

Stargoids was the name given to the Titans when they were still on their way here, before we knew what they were.

Wasn't the first one called Bob?

O7

 

[Rainbro]

I read all the posts here, thanks Rainbro for the great write-up with links to GalNet articles and thank you everyone for contributing.
For a new player like me, it made the lore more digestible.

While some time passed and I just started playing in December 3309, it seems the situation is still the same.
Humanity is still encroaching and harvesting Thargoid territory.

I'd be curious to hear from someone that has played for the last year, that would fill any gaps I have.

Based on my experience, hyperdiction behaviour is still the same as described by OP.
I was only shot on sight when entering Thargoid controlled systems (as described in the galaxy map) or contested with humanity.

Since I've read ED events are led by player actions, I could see how the war is escalating if people only see Thargoids as an enemy to destroy.
While I am not sure what is what you called stargoid (I stopped myself for spoilers), I've heard about the Maelstrom and Titans which to me again indicate Thargoids are trying to slowly ramp up their response when faced with humanity aggression/encroachment.

It will be interesting to see if this new January 3310 campaign about the needs of Guardian Relics for anti-titan research will succeed and if so what will be the outcome.

I really wonder how things would have evolved if player actions had been mostly pacifist towards Thargoids.
I can see the value from a gameplay side to antagonize an alien race so as to create a war effort and a refresh of the enemy (killing other humans might get boring I guess).

I can also see how FDev might have predicted player reaction since IRL, we still tend to attack each others when we feel threatened. I could even see the game as a reflection of what is happening in real life, humanity still has to work hard on managing its primary responses and think harder about the meaning of things.

Interesting stuff!

Oh hey, thanks! I still want to make a follow-up post to this but the plot progression has been pretty slow. To answer your questions:

Hyperdiction behaviours remain the same in the nebulae. Why this is remains unclear, or if it's even intentional. There was a brief series of articles about Thargoid sightings in a new area of space that would hyperdict but not attack - or in other words, completely normal nebula behaviour - but on GalNet it was treated as something surprising.
It's hard to think why the Thargoids would be less aggressive in their own invaded territory compared to ours. It's not like they've completely given up on them either - there was the attack on Witch Head, which suddenly reverted with no acknowledgement from devs or GalNet even months later, and there was an attack on the California Nebula iirc, which was also kinda botched in how it was implemented and hard to get meaningful info on...

My best guess is that Frontier couldn't get the new behaviours to work properly out in the nebulae away from the framework of the Titans. Or, they didn't want to mess with people getting meta alloys for Farseer. Maybe both.

Regarding how the war might have gone: maybe, if the player base had been universally against it. But we're not. Frontier did an exceedingly good propaganda job with the buildup to war, and now we're years past the point where any of that stuff happened, so all new people hear is how the Thargoids popped up one day and set about burning stations...all this old information is not easily accessible.

ED is also not exactly led by player actions. I think the major plot points are fixed, but we can influence the paths between them and other, smaller victories or defeats. There's a quote that goes around in these discussions from David Braben about how peace with the Thargoids would always have been a temporary state. Which is funny, because it doesn't say who would make it temporary but of course everyone assumes its the aliens...

So the war would always have started, I think, because even if we had the option to impede the invasion of the Pleiades the authorities would have kept trying to start one. The Titans would always have arrived, because the Proteus Wave would have been constructed by Aegis if not Azimuth. But maybe, if Frontier pick up the narrative pace a little, we'll have the chance to bring some of those responsible to justice. Maybe.

 

[Louis Calvert]

Hyperdiction behaviours remain the same in the nebulae. Why this is remains unclear, or if it's even intentional. There was a brief series of articles about Thargoid sightings in a new area of space that would hyperdict but not attack - or in other words, completely normal nebula behaviour - but on GalNet it was treated as something surprising.
It's hard to think why the Thargoids would be less aggressive in their own invaded territory compared to ours. It's not like they've completely given up on them either - there was the attack on Witch Head, which suddenly reverted with no acknowledgement from devs or GalNet even months later, and there was an attack on the California Nebula iirc, which was also kinda botched in how it was implemented and hard to get meaningful info on...

... it's almost like the Thargoids aren't a planet of hats

The Pleiades Thargoids are likely to be one 'hive' - or more likely collection of associated hives.

The Thargoids seen out near Barnard's Loop might (probably do) belong to an entirely different hive, maybe even one that hasn't encountered humans before.

The Maelstroms are each likely to be a Hive of their own, and there doesn't seem to be any cooperation between them from what I've heard and seen, other than when they invaded near-simultaneously.

Each hive functions as a 'single entity' comprised of hundreds to thousands of Thargoids (in various forms) with each component being both independently sapient, and also controlled by the Queen. Each Queen is said to be at least as intelligent as a human, so it's fair to assume that just like us humans, not all Thargoids seen everywhere will act the same.

 

[Rainbro]

... it's almost like the Thargoids aren't a planet of hats

The Pleiades Thargoids are likely to be one 'hive' - or more likely collection of associated hives.

The Thargoids seen out near Barnard's Loop might (probably do) belong to an entirely different hive, maybe even one that hasn't encountered humans before.

The Maelstroms are each likely to be a Hive of their own, and there doesn't seem to be any cooperation between them from what I've heard and seen, other than when they invaded near-simultaneously.

Each hive functions as a 'single entity' comprised of hundreds to thousands of Thargoids (in various forms) with each component being both independently sapient, and also controlled by the Queen. Each Queen is said to be at least as intelligent as a human, so it's fair to assume that just like us humans, not all Thargoids seen everywhere will act the same.

It's possible but I don't think this is likely. The problem is that if this were the case, they are working together - the Thargoid Roar was a response to the Thargoids in HIP 22460, from the Maelstrom Thargoids to the local Thargoids. So, the local Thargoids have already proven willing to fight in HIP 22460, they call in the Titans in response to humanity trying to wipe them out yet again - and then they go back to normal defensive hyperdictions? Seems like a contradiction, why keep giving human vessels the benefit of the doubt in your own space if you've just called in the big guns to start blowing everything up in theirs?

The only way to explain this I can think of would be to increase the number of hives, and make them truly independent - nebula Thargoids, then bubble Thargoids that attack the bubble, then HIP 22460 Thargoids that fight the Proteus as a subset of Maelstrom Thargoids - but that I think is stretching things a bit far, particularly with why all these groups would pop up at just the right moments in a nice progression if they're independent.

Also, if they are different hives, I'd expect Frontier to do more with it. That's kind of a big deal, I wouldn't expect that plot point to be entirely in service to "the nebula goids will carry on acting exactly as they always have". Then they have the Wregoe storyline, and still refuse to draw any attention to it? It's just weird, to introduce such a huge plot point and then adamantly do nothing with it, even while writing in the perfect opportunity to bring it up.

Mainly, if they are different hives, the absolute least they could do is add variants of the Thargoid logograms to indicate that. Otherwise I guess every hive uses the same symbols for their ships and barnacles? Bit of a disappointment to have those symbols turn out to be useless.

 

[Kayvan]

Since I've read ED events are led by player actions

Tiny addendum to this:
sometimes FDev holds a kind of "vote" per Community Goal to decide how the metaplot will progress. The basic principle is simple: 2 CGs with opposite intentions, and the one that garners more support wins, and its intended purpose is put into effect. In theory that's nice, because it means that players get to vote simply by playing the game, and the more you put into the CG of your choice, the bigger your influence on the outcome.
In practice however, FD likes to skew these outcomes by simply bribing the players to support a particular side by way of CG rewards. It's kinda like "If you support A, you get a free car; if you support B, you get a tin of expired dog food. Which shall it be?"
So guess what, most of the time the CG that promises the free car wins.

 

[Louis Calvert]

It's possible but I don't think this is likely.

It's actually lore. There are many hives.:

Codex: "Thargoid society is organised into hives ... Thargoid hives can be vast, although it may be that some of the larger observed groups are in fact multiple, overlapping hives. testing indicated that queens perceive drones as entirely expendable... a Thargoid queen appears to give no more thought to the loss of a drone that a human would an eyelash"

The problem is that if this were the case, they are working together - the Thargoid Roar was a response to the Thargoids in HIP 22460, from the Maelstrom Thargoids to the local Thargoids.

Specifically the Thargoid Roar was a call from the HIP 22460 Queen, and a response to that queen from the Titans (presumably other queens). I think that shows there are different hives. It lore explicitly states hives can work together (or at least not need to kill each other while operating in the same area, functionally like the Empire and Feds working together in Aegis ).

So, the local Thargoids have already proven willing to fight in HIP 22460, they call in the Titans in response to humanity trying to wipe them out yet again

I think that proves it really, since it's widely theorised that Salvation had a queen in HIP 22460, it's likely that it's her hive that's fighting in HIP 22460 in direct response to Salvation's use of Guardian technology. Other Thargoids in the Pleaides haven't decided to fight, as you say, most of them are doing what they usually do

I personally think that there are few (if any) queens left in the Pleiades, Witch Head, and California nebula - either just one to keep the lights on, or they've gone entirely. I think the drones there are simply working on default - Thargoids are sentient, but fairly basic without instructions from the queen - which is exactly what we see in the predictable actions of most "nebula Thargoids", as you put it (good name).

The queen being experimented on by Salvation and tied to Guardian technology co-opted that machinery to signal in way we've never seen before. That seemed to be a signal saying "Look what's happening here", implicitly because we're using Guardian technology, and got a reply something like "we see". In response 8 Hive ships unlike anything we've seen before travelled in a way we've never seen before from 8 different directions spread thousands of lightyears apart, from areas that no-one had ever encountered Thargoids before or since.

I don't think I'm alone in interpreting this as a response to Guardian technology being used in this way. Same as when Thargoids attacked most of our factions responded in a (mostly) coordinated way to the threat, eventually, sort of.

- and then they go back to normal defensive hyperdictions?

I believe HIP 22460 still has all the aggressive Thargoids? Not been there for ages.

AFAIK none of the other Thargoids in the Pleaides or elsewhere responded to the HIP 22460 call, nor did the Witch Head or California Thargoids, from what I recall. Different Hives responding differently - but as I said I think that's because they are queenless.

Seems like a contradiction, why keep giving human vessels the benefit of the doubt in your own space if you've just called in the big guns to start blowing everything up in theirs?

Because there's different Hives involved. Some maybe don't care, some are queenless (or all of them), some maybe have juvenile queens emerged more recently and maybe just trying to get along and do Thargy stuff without getting stomped by the local angry humans, etc. Maybe some are even working with humans, that's also within the scope of the lore (e.g. Carl Linneaus at Peregrina)

The Titans are each a hive (or even collections of hives in one ship); un-allied, but loosely aimed at the same goal (they don't help each other out, but they are clearly broadly working towards some goal - smash humans). Like all the stuff we've had with the three superpowers trying to work together in response to the Thargoids, all can agree the Thargoids invading is bad, but each has its own opinions on how to respond.

The only way to explain this I can think of would be to increase the number of hives, and make them truly independent - nebula Thargoids, then bubble Thargoids that attack the bubble, then HIP 22460 Thargoids that fight the Proteus as a subset of Maelstrom Thargoids - but that I think is stretching things a bit far, particularly with why all these groups would pop up at just the right moments in a nice progression if they're independent.

I'm pretty sure that's exactly what we're seeing - an orchestrated plan.

We were told back in 2014 and 2016 that the Oresrians (the hives we previously fought in the war) plan was to trap humanity in a war with the Klaxians, so the Oresrians could escape them ... We're told that basically the Oresrians know we're pretty strong (we beat them before), so it'll take the Klaxxians a while to kill us, and by then the Oresrians will have escaped ... and if you examine the situation now it's a lot like the Oresrians (materially, philosophically, and militarily weaker) are the "nebula Thargoids" near us, and the more warlike and aggressive Klaxians "Maelstrom Thargoids" have just entered the battle...

Pretty sure that's what's been happening all these years: Oresrians essentially fed us meta alloys, then fed us drones to practice against, then antagonised us just enough to provoke a response, then fell back, rinse and repeat, until Salvation phoned with genocide on his mind and most people by then backed him cos we're absolutely murderous as a species. Then the Guardian superweapon was reversed into a massive beacon calling in the Klaxxians to deal with an existential threat (presumably Guardian-weapon-wielding humans are more of a threat than a weaker faction of Thargoids). I assume this was the plan all along enacted by the HIP 22460 queen, maybe she even gave Salvation the idea of building the Proteus Wave.

I suspect (but have no proof) that the Oresrian Queens have long gone; The HIP 22460 queen was either a hero of the Oresrains, or unwilling bait calling in the Klaxxians

Again; recall that drones don't matter. All the Thargoid kills that AXI and the like rack up are causing material losses, but only in the same way as we might resent losing Limpets cos we've got to restock later and it's a bit inconvenient. It's the Queens that matter in Thargoid society. I'd be surprised if there were more than a few dozen Queens near us - if not only 9 (HIP 22460 and the 8 Titans). For all we know a Titan is simply the Thargoid version of a megaship, there could be thousands more.

I'm also certain that there are a lot of eyes out there waiting to see what happens here!

 

[Groman]

Thank you all again for the comments. It sounds like I need to take the time to dig up all those details and try to get a clearer picture.
I'm really enjoying the depth of the lore in ED!

I was really curious to observe the Thargoid structures/ships (I really want to see a Titan!)but I am not equipped for combat.
Is there a safe way to observe their ships and sites or you really have to be ready to defend yourself?
I don't mind fleeing but last time they obliterated my ship before I could even start charging my FSD.

I won't carry meta-alloys but I do have some Thargoid materials on me which I understand always follow you around and can't be deposited.
Will that be a risk with the Thargoid scans?

 

[Ned Flandalorian]

Specifically the Thargoid Roar was a call from the HIP 22460 Queen, and a response to that queen from the Titans (presumably other queens).

I think it was originally intended to be something like that, but then someone had the bright idea for reusing it whenever a Titan activates its "get the hell away from me" ray... which doesn't at all fit the "we see them, we are coming" translation that we were offered.

 

[jojon]

A kind of funny notion would be several independent hives arriving, not because they are co-operating, but because they don't trust one another enough to let any one of them go unwatched... ;P

 

[Rainbro]

It's actually lore. There are many hives.:

Codex: "Thargoid society is organised into hives ... Thargoid hives can be vast, although it may be that some of the larger observed groups are in fact multiple, overlapping hives. testing indicated that queens perceive drones as entirely expendable... a Thargoid queen appears to give no more thought to the loss of a drone that a human would an eyelash"


Specifically the Thargoid Roar was a call from the HIP 22460 Queen, and a response to that queen from the Titans (presumably other queens). I think that shows there are different hives. It lore explicitly states hives can work together (or at least not need to kill each other while operating in the same area, functionally like the Empire and Feds working together in Aegis ).


I think that proves it really, since it's widely theorised that Salvation had a queen in HIP 22460, it's likely that it's her hive that's fighting in HIP 22460 in direct response to Salvation's use of Guardian technology. Other Thargoids in the Pleaides haven't decided to fight, as you say, most of them are doing what they usually do

I personally think that there are few (if any) queens left in the Pleiades, Witch Head, and California nebula - either just one to keep the lights on, or they've gone entirely. I think the drones there are simply working on default - Thargoids are sentient, but fairly basic without instructions from the queen - which is exactly what we see in the predictable actions of most "nebula Thargoids", as you put it (good name).

The queen being experimented on by Salvation and tied to Guardian technology co-opted that machinery to signal in way we've never seen before. That seemed to be a signal saying "Look what's happening here", implicitly because we're using Guardian technology, and got a reply something like "we see". In response 8 Hive ships unlike anything we've seen before travelled in a way we've never seen before from 8 different directions spread thousands of lightyears apart, from areas that no-one had ever encountered Thargoids before or since.

I don't think I'm alone in interpreting this as a response to Guardian technology being used in this way. Same as when Thargoids attacked most of our factions responded in a (mostly) coordinated way to the threat, eventually, sort of.


I believe HIP 22460 still has all the aggressive Thargoids? Not been there for ages.

AFAIK none of the other Thargoids in the Pleaides or elsewhere responded to the HIP 22460 call, nor did the Witch Head or California Thargoids, from what I recall. Different Hives responding differently - but as I said I think that's because they are queenless.


Because there's different Hives involved. Some maybe don't care, some are queenless (or all of them), some maybe have juvenile queens emerged more recently and maybe just trying to get along and do Thargy stuff without getting stomped by the local angry humans, etc. Maybe some are even working with humans, that's also within the scope of the lore (e.g. Carl Linneaus at Peregrina)

The Titans are each a hive (or even collections of hives in one ship); un-allied, but loosely aimed at the same goal (they don't help each other out, but they are clearly broadly working towards some goal - smash humans). Like all the stuff we've had with the three superpowers trying to work together in response to the Thargoids, all can agree the Thargoids invading is bad, but each has its own opinions on how to respond.


I'm pretty sure that's exactly what we're seeing - an orchestrated plan.

We were told back in 2014 and 2016 that the Oresrians (the hives we previously fought in the war) plan was to trap humanity in a war with the Klaxians, so the Oresrians could escape them ... We're told that basically the Oresrians know we're pretty strong (we beat them before), so it'll take the Klaxxians a while to kill us, and by then the Oresrians will have escaped ... and if you examine the situation now it's a lot like the Oresrians (materially, philosophically, and militarily weaker) are the "nebula Thargoids" near us, and the more warlike and aggressive Klaxians "Maelstrom Thargoids" have just entered the battle...

Pretty sure that's what's been happening all these years: Oresrians essentially fed us meta alloys, then fed us drones to practice against, then antagonised us just enough to provoke a response, then fell back, rinse and repeat, until Salvation phoned with genocide on his mind and most people by then backed him cos we're absolutely murderous as a species. Then the Guardian superweapon was reversed into a massive beacon calling in the Klaxxians to deal with an existential threat (presumably Guardian-weapon-wielding humans are more of a threat than a weaker faction of Thargoids). I assume this was the plan all along enacted by the HIP 22460 queen, maybe she even gave Salvation the idea of building the Proteus Wave.

I suspect (but have no proof) that the Oresrian Queens have long gone; The HIP 22460 queen was either a hero of the Oresrains, or unwilling bait calling in the Klaxxians

Again; recall that drones don't matter. All the Thargoid kills that AXI and the like rack up are causing material losses, but only in the same way as we might resent losing Limpets cos we've got to restock later and it's a bit inconvenient. It's the Queens that matter in Thargoid society. I'd be surprised if there were more than a few dozen Queens near us - if not only 9 (HIP 22460 and the 8 Titans). For all we know a Titan is simply the Thargoid version of a megaship, there could be thousands more.

I'm also certain that there are a lot of eyes out there waiting to see what happens here!

Not disputing that there may be multiple hives out there, I just don't think we are currently seeing them, or at least that's not the reason for the nebula hyperdictions being how they are.

 

[Edelgard von Rhein]

Reading through the recent comments highlights one problem that has been bugging me:
Why do the Thargoids react so aggressively to Guardians technology, when the war with them was not only so long ago but not, according to the Guardians lore we have seen, on the scale of our own engagements with the Thargoids?

We have used weapons of mass destruction against the Thargoids twice, once successfully. For the last few decades in particular we have expanded our territory aggressively and into regions the Thargoids have claimed (Pleiades, Witch Head, Coal Sack, California Nebula), whereas the Guardians have no sites in these areas (save for two battlegrounds around Barnard's Loop). The more distant Guardians sites post-date their conflict with the Thargoids, from the Guardians lore, and are in regions where no Thargoids or Barnacles have been reported. So I can understand the Thargoids considering us an existential threat and sending fleets into the Bubble, whilst trying to avoid antagonising us or drawing our attention to areas behind the lines.

The Guardians' conflict with the Thargoids was a defensive one (the Thargoids may have perceived their territory as being threatened but the Guardians had no choice about where they arose). They were protecting themselves. Humanity's conflicts with the Thargoids have both been offensive - it is the Thargoids who have been protecting themselves.

So I don't understand why the Thargoids would have a stronger response to the use of Guardians technology than to our own (although even the non-Guardians AX weapons supposedly use Guardians materials). Unless: the Thargoids think that the Guardians AI constructs are still around and are mistaking our actions and technology for a Guardians AI deciding that they need to be wiped out as well. Or maybe they perceive us as agents (whether aware of it or not) of a Guardians AI. Perhaps they have had hostile encounters with Guardians AI in the million+ years since they were created and we have not found the archaeological evidence yet.

I feel that we need to better understand the relationship between the Thargoids and the Guardians, else destroying or disabling a Titan is likely to escalate the conflict further. It might even antagonise the Guardians AI, if they really are still around...