Game Discussions Star Citizen Discussion Thread v12

VR Golgot

VR Golgot
Navigare Necesse Est said:
No way the general public will exhibit the same idiocy as the gullibers. People won't pay 40 bucks for an overrated, overhyped piece of crap that took 10 years to make and still is bugged like hell.
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I dunno. The broader reaction to the Citcon SQ404 vid was legit. Like lots of interest. No way that was all astro etc.

Which just goes to show that gamers never learn ;)

If CIG can pour out a slurry of shiny marketing they may well get a load of people to go with a pre-order flow. (Not 'get out of jail' money, or anything that would survive contact with killer reviews etc. But they could get a hype train huffing for sure I reckon).

Given money may be tight though, it's gonna be interesting to see how exactly any SQ404 marketing manifests. (Lots of homebrew mocap in their own studio I'm guessing, ironically conflicting with their polishing needs ;))
 

Viajero

Volunteer Moderator
Viajero
Cosmo said:
What if SC (CIG) releases Squadron 42 in 2024 or 2025 and it sells enough copies so that they can pay the investors? I guess that's their plan.
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The thing is all we know about the minority investors returns is just about their shares buy back. There could be more returns on top of that that we are not privy to. They could be getting some returns already on ongoing sales for all we know.

The shares the investors have carry an option for them to make CIG buy them back at a premium be it in 2025 or 2028. According to CIG that premium is calculated based on the last 3 years average revenue. So if SQ42 happens to be good and CIG´s revenue is high so will the investors return be, etc.

CIG has estimated that return at end of 2022 at £47.8m for the UK business. So we need to double that to add the US side (the investment in shares in the US and the UK was at 50/50) for a grand total of £95.6m, or around $120m. Remember, that is just as per CIG estimates based on revenue from 2020 to 2022. But 2023 was a record funding year, so the current CIG´s debt is probably much higher now, let´s say CIG´s debt is around $150m total.

Let´s do some back of the envelop maths: Let´s asume now that SQ42 is launched in 2025 and it has a price of $50 per copy. Let´s also asume the investors exercise the buy back option at the end of Q1 2025. Given CIG is essentially spending as much as it earns in ship sales, SQ42 would need to sell around 3 million units before the end of Q1 2025 to allow CIG to pay back the investors in time... that is if CIG wants to pay back. And that does not include the additional revenue from SQ42 itself that would probably also need to be factored in the return formula and would make the debt even higher...

That also means none of that money will be used in developing the game anymore as it goes to the investors. That is a lot of units sold in a very short time, and a lot of money that CIG will never keep to help develop the actual PU or sequels for SQ42. I suspect CIG is going to resist as best as they can giving a single cent to the investors, and that includes spending as much as they earn for as long as they can whether SQ42 is released or not.

And that is assuming SQ42 is released before end of Q1 2025 and sells at least 3 million copies before that. If Sq42 is bad then depending on the terms of the investments there is a possibility the investors can bankrupt CIG, force it to sell assets, downsize or just take control. It is all going to depend on the actual terms of the investment that CIG has not allowed even its own auditors to see :rolleyes: .
 
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Navigare Necesse Est

Navigare Necesse Est
Cosmo said:
Well there is a chance that SQ42 is a good or great game after a decade of development. So 2-3 million units sold is not unrealistic. However, many SC players could stop backing SC (the MMO) if SQ42 is all they really wanted.
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Lol. A decade and nothing to show for? I don't think your scenario is any likely. If there was a good and great game they'd already boasted about it and hyped it. Except there is nothing there. It's a turd, scheduled to be dead on arrival.
 

Agony_Aunt

Agony_Aunt
Navigare Necesse Est said:
And I've looked at it from different sides. The Calder pull 100 million. The item price is 20 bucks. They'd have to sell millions of new copies of a ten year old trainwreck. It's kinda like watching Lynch's Dune back to back to Villeneuve's. Just Lynch's Dune was actually a piece of art - not a piece of junk like Kermit Roberts opus.
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Watched Dune Part 2 a couple of days ago. While a much better cinematic experience and much more faithful to the book, I'm still going to rate the Lynch version higher simply because its so much more quotable and funny.

"Bring in the flying fatman!"

Also, Sting in a codpeice!

Sci-fi channel version doesn't get enough praise either!
 

Navigare Necesse Est

Navigare Necesse Est
Agony_Aunt said:
Watched Dune Part 2 a couple of days ago. While a much better cinematic experience and much more faithful to the book, I'm still going to rate the Lynch version higher simply because its so much more quotable and funny.

"Bring in the flying fatman!"

Also, Sting in a codpeice!

Sci-fi channel version doesn't get enough praise either!
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Lynch had its own very distinctive artwork. It is in parts like a nightmare. Overacted and cut to fit into the budget, but what a vision of Dune.
Villeneuve pulls all the strings, has CGI for mass scenes. Giedi Prime arena? Not possible in the days of Lynch. Villeneuve also marks his own artistic vision on it. I think it's a great movie. And quite true to the book - they did remarkable work with the script.
 

Viajero

Volunteer Moderator
Viajero

ECity

ECity
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Navigare Necesse Est

Navigare Necesse Est
Agony_Aunt said:
Who said it has to be a hit? Just needs to be enough idiots out there who will buy the game based on the marketing and hype.
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There is lots, true, but gamer wallets are sometimes more shy than deer. It won't sell those millions over their own distribution channel, they need more reach. More market penetration. But that exposes the product to more scrutiny also. Jankistan cannot be kept under the rug as much with more eyes looking. Word goes around and the sales tank. That is the scenario I consider likely.
 
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