I think if FDev keep up with fixes and updates, then PP2.0 will definitely be more of a thing than PP1.0 was.
For Powerplay 2 specifically there are some indicators of that - regardless of the effects on the wider playerbase.
1) In Powerplay 1, the number of Squadrons with pledged activity was about 250 per season (and very little variation between seasons). There's a more specific requirement on this leaderboard than most of the others - the individual gaining the PP actions has to match their squadron pledge - so that was always an underestimate; nevertheless, the figure two weeks into the current Squadron season, with the same restriction in PP2, is already over 1000 active squadrons and still rising. It'll be interesting to see where this settles longer-term, since the Thargoid war achieved a similar and somewhat long-term-sustained multiplier for the AX leaderboard participation.
2) The number of merits needed to shift a system to a new state is measured, and the number of systems in each state is published per cycle. So it's possible to get an estimate of the minimum number of merits earned by
everyone during a week from the weekly changes, and this comes in at around 150-200 million merits [1] per cycle - not counting merits that are countered by the other side either locally or globally, not counting those wasted by over-capturing or losing an Acquisition fight, and relying on "big numbers" averaging to cover the case where a system is promoted or demoted gradually over multiple weeks. This metric is not dropping off at all yet (in fact, last week was the highest so far)
A reasonable estimate of mean merits per player per week based on the in-power leaderboards would be in the 10-20,000 [1] merits per week range (which will include weekly assignments which don't shift systems at all, but those were relatively small in previous weeks anyway). So that suggests a five-figure number of active players (hard to be more precise) which certainly beats CGs.
[1] Since from this week there's a large distinction, these are the system merits. Personal merits will now be 4x that or higher.
I have been running a lot of tests as I am heavily involved in BGS for my faction, I got a clean as possible test in a system (no sys traffic but me for the whole tick) I was trying to push our own faction down as we were over 75%. I put up 200+ INF for the 2nd and 3rd factions (non- natives) neither of which were in conflict. Post tick the influence in the system did not move at all for any faction, and I have had similar results with only slight shifts in other systems where there has been light traffic (where pre PP2 the work undertaken would have shifted a lower faction at least 5%). Given we have total control of the stations in a lot of our systems, unless we are lucky enough to have a lower faction with a control system elsewhere containing a RES or CNB for bounties (which are still shifting INF) it is pretty much impossible to stave off several of our systems pushing above 75% and forcing non natives to retreat. We are now in a status of permaexpansion. The only thing I have not tried / tested is trading with other factions ODY settlements but demand at those is usually minimal, so I would expect it will be a hassle either way and doubt it will be enough to counteract the problem.
This is interesting, thank you - and I think the first attempt at a "clean system" test I've seen. If missions aren't having the normal effect that would certainly explain some things.
The slightly odd thing is that out in my monitoring of Colonia systems, everything seems basically normal - there are no runaway controlling factions (if anything they're down slightly), influence movements are all within the normal ranges, overall traffic levels do seem to be up a bit with the update too. So are missions only not working specifically in Powerplay-affected systems?
