Elite Dangerous data : is the game dying or growing ?

Privata · Sep 23, 2015

Based on my numbers :
LOL is dead as well as they lost -11.82% of there player base !
DOTA is dead too with -13.28% players !
and No one ever plays GTAV anymore for -15.47% do not play !

OH NOSE !

steamcharts mean nothing

XYZ · Sep 23, 2015

That's doesn't change the math. You only proved that 0.07% have stop playing.

Based on my numbers :
LOL is dead as well as they lost -11.82% of there player base !
DOTA is dead too with -13.28% players !
and No one ever plays GTAV anymore for -15.47% do not play !

OH NOSE !

steamcharts mean nothing

Math of stats is a little different:

In Aprlil you had 8.94 % Avg. player base active to totall sales number.
In August you have 4.76 % Avg. player base active to totall sales number.
So you have almost 50% drop (sure steam data are not a good way to make stats but this is the only way).

Druid · Sep 23, 2015

I may be typical , I may be not. I am not playing at the moment but that is nothing to do with ED . I am just taking a rest and watching the game develop while I play witcher 3 and drive about in F1 2013 . There are no subs and I have paid up for all expansions therefore I feel no pressure to play hard . I will be playing again when the urge takes me but I just dont feel the need to play ED constantly. I have beta tested CQC and enjoyed that and I look fwd to PL . Winter is heading in and Ill be back on ED for the long nights.

I imagin there are many like me who will just take it as it comes , play when they want , pop in when something tweaks their interest. Who needs to hammer a game when you are in it for the long run?

gary.brain · Sep 23, 2015

Druid said:
I imagin there are many like me who will just take it as it comes , play when they want , pop in when something tweaks their interest. Who needs to hammer a game when you are in it for the long run?

+20 rep young man, some people just take this SSSoooo seriously.

Backelaer · Sep 23, 2015

XYZ said:
Math of stats is a little different:

In Aprlil you had 8.94 % Avg. player base active to totall sales number.
In August you have 4.76 % Avg. player base active to totall sales number.
So you have almost 50% drop (sure steam data are not a good way to make stats but this is the only way).

If that data isn't a good way to make stats, [sic] than don't do it. You will be drawing the wrong conclusions. That it is the only data you can draw conclusions from, doesn't make those conclusions any more valid.
Logic dude. Logic.

Druid · Sep 23, 2015

gary.brain said:
+20 rep young man, some people just take this SSSoooo seriously.

Stalker ;-)

Certacito · Sep 23, 2015

Seeing as the average attention span of a large portion of Steam players is less than a goldfish, I don't really see the stats as a valuable and accurate reflection. This game is doing fine and has plenty of loyal players who will continue playing for a while yet.

XYZ · Sep 23, 2015

Backelaer said:
If that data isn't a good way to make stats, [sic] than don't do it. You will be drawing the wrong conclusions. That it is the only data you can draw conclusions from, doesn't make those conclusions any more valid.
Logic dude. Logic.

Yeah you are right at some point but for me the trend is visible - read this CMDR comment :

dragoniv said:
I came back to the game after getting peeved at the broken mechanics (they royally fouled up the economy about 14 weeks ago) and Powerplay. I got back in, found the economy sort of fixed, and Powerplay still sucks, but I like Flying A Space Ship and Shooting Bad Guys Down.

However, I do notice one disturbing trend. I had about 75 people as friends in the game--about 50 'muricans and another 25 brits. Six months ago, I would usually see 20 of them online at a time, and most played pretty regularly. Right before I took my break, it was half that, and it was mostly then same 10 players. Since I came back, it's down to 3 (not counting 2 I just added), and it's the same 3 players. Not counting me, that's 72 of 75 who are not currently playing the game.

Now, I'm the first to tell you that's anecdotal, since my list of friends is not a random sample, and not very big in the grand scheme of things. But geez, it's hard not to read a message from that.

No, the message is not "I need to pick better "friends" in game, thanks.

Edit: btw i see thae same pattern in my "friends" list.

BigFW · Sep 23, 2015

Was just about to delete from Steam then remembered I never linked to Steam

Sorry that's a Stat black hole that aint getting filled. Though it does not alter the figures stated it does mean the whole picture is not being seen.

And frankly I'm sure a lot of people are not that bothered about what may or may not happen. I play ED and enjoy it. If they switched off the servers I would be disappointed but glad I had spent over a year playing it. But I'm confident I'll still be playing at least a couple of years from now.... Or you can call me Susan

I also stop for a while and play other games and there sure are a few coming up that will distract me.

Drink! · Sep 23, 2015

XYZ said:
Math of stats is a little different:

In Aprlil you had 8.94 % Avg. player base active to totall sales number.
In August you have 4.76 % Avg. player base active to totall sales number.
So you have almost 50% drop (sure steam data are not a good way to make stats but this is the only way).

Just because its "the only way" doesn't make it right, correct, accurate, or useful in a meaningful way.
Think about it, you trying to predict the future of a game using only 0.54% of its total number of players.
4471 (April) / 825000 (total sales) = 0.005419 = 0.54%

Theta Sigma · Sep 23, 2015

XYZ said:
Game sales data :
22 April 2015 - 500.000 units sold (only PC)
31 August 2015 - 825,000 units sold (PC,Mac,Xbox)

Total unit sold grow by 65 %.

Steam stats:

Month Avg. Players
April 2015 4,471.1

August 2015 3,917.6

Avg. players number down by 12.4 %.

http://steamcharts.com/app/359320

We all know that 70-80 % of game slaes is in the first year since realase. So as current player base deacy we will see no new players around to replace them. If FD dont wake up and still will be crafting this grinding machine that Elite Dangerous is, open play will be pointless as option in menu .

11. ... or i can be totally wrong

Probably 11. %^]

Steam Avg. should more accurately be referred to as 'average concurrent players per hour'

Another (perhaps more) instructive figure to consider is 'Players in the last 2 weeks'

Elite: Dangerous (Steam Only)

Owners: 333,913 ± 14,220

Players in the last 2 weeks: 67,354 ± 6,390 (20.17%)

Peak concurrent players yesterday: 5,882

YouTube stats: 33,626 views and 749 comments for videos uploaded last week, 42 new videos uploaded yesterday.

Playtime in the last 2 weeks: 16:43 (average) 03:23 (median)

Playtime total: 52:49 (average) 20:32 (median)

source:
http://steamspy.com/app/359320

Also, recent events in-game causing 'average concurrent players per hour' to be the 'Peak' of Last 30 days...

24 hour peak: 6,518
Last 30 days peak: 6,518

source:
http://steamcharts.com/app/359320

Commander Wolzan · Sep 23, 2015

For me personally, this game is the best game I have ever experienced in my life. Whilst some people see a lack of content and lack of direction and criticise the game for it, I found that the very lack of direction cultivated a desire in me to create my own story and become more emotionally invested in this game than any game before it. A good story in a game created by the developers is one thing, but when its one that you have created for yourself I think it is much more impactful. Long may this game continue, the naysayers will forever hate without being able to see beyond the next hand holding goal of other games but for those of us "who get it", the journey will forever continue.

khaoste · Sep 23, 2015

https://forums.frontier.co.uk/showthread.php?t=185314

But you could read threads like this too...

khaitom · Sep 23, 2015

If you don't like it just go off and play Star Citizen.

anongw65 · Sep 23, 2015

Certacito said:
Seeing as the average attention span of a large portion of Steam players is less than a goldfish, I don't really see the stats as a valuable and accurate reflection. This game is doing fine and has plenty of loyal players who will continue playing for a while yet.

HEY! What do you mean by.... wait, what was I saying? Oh, never mind.

Tuub t Tute · Sep 23, 2015

"72% of all statistics are made up on the spot" - Vic Reeves

Druid · Sep 23, 2015

Remember you can predict an election result by polling 1000 people randomly to get an acurate statistic. That worked well in the UK election didnt it lol.

deusx_ophc · Sep 23, 2015

thanks to @Theta Sigma

As usual, rumours of the death of Elite: Dangerous tend to be premature:

'Average concurrent players per hour'
7pm BST, Wed, 16th Sep: 3,958
7pm BST, Wed, 23rd Sep: 6,065
+53% on this time last week.

Yesterday, Tuesday 22nd was:
+37% on same time last week.

Current 'average concurrent players per hour' is 100% of Last 30 days 'Peak'

24 hour peak: 6,065
Last 30 days peak: 6,065

source:
http://steamcharts.com/app/359320

and how about this

Naturally, the fact that a full nine months after release on Steam, Elite: Dangerous is still Number 7 / 100 in the SteamChart is _purely_incidental.
It tells us nothing about how well Elite: Dangerous is doing, and the fact this Steam chart even exists should be seriously questioned.
'Top 100 Games in the last 2 weeks by total time spent'
http://i.imgur.com/bGnyPF3.png

The fact that Elite: Dangerous is much higher in the chart of this metric than:

DSII: SOTFS (#17) [...which has just had a 50%-off sale]

GTAV (#40)[...the most popular franchise release of all time]

(...all of which were released to Steam within ten days of each other back in April)
...is to be _completely_ ignored.

Nothing to see here.
Elite: Dangerous is a critical and commercial flop, the like of which has never been seen before.
Frontier will be bankrupt tomorrow.

Zephyriel · Sep 23, 2015

ED is fine. I haven't played it for a few months, doesn't mean I won't come back to it when Horizons lands (!). It's probably the case for many people. Besides, active players don't matter as much as the raw number of purchases for FD, since there is no monthly fee. As long as the players are there when there is a paid expansion, it's money on FD's account and the game lives on.

Varrag · Sep 23, 2015

XYZ said:
Edit: btw i see thae same pattern in my "friends" list.

Well, if you want to look at it like that, I can also confirm that my local (national) community is pretty much non existent nowadays and it was thriving 6 months ago; even the forums are dead. This may be indicative, but the sample is way too small.